New Xbox has chance to be No. 1, Gates says

Microsoft chief cites execs' promises that "Xenon" will beat Sony and says he welcomes "competitive dynamic."

The story "New Xbox has chance to be No. 1, Gates says" published May 2, 2005 at 5:17 AM is no longer available on CNET News.

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[Willy Wonker]

again

Why do Bill Gates really know what Sony is making?

[pcLoadLetter]

Pretty funny

It is amusing to hear MS talk about competition.

The first Xbox wasn't as huge as they wanted, because the games sucked, except for a small handful of titles.

If they have any chance to unseat Sony, it will be with the number of quality games. If they do the same thing as before they will lose this round as well. Console gamers are generally more easily swayed by pretty graphics, but no matter how much horsepower they shove into the box, a lack of engaging and fun games will hold them back.

Exactly.

In one of my e-mails to IGN, I wrote a similar comment. In it, I wrote:

If we want a console FPS or good graphics for sports games (since most sports games are cross-platform but look somewhat better on the Xbox), my friends and I choose the Xbox. For everything else, we choose the PS2.

Short of Halo/Halo 2, Jade Empire, and maybe the forthcoming Unreal Championship 2, my Xbox goes largely unused. Unless there is a big push by Microsoft to get much more diversity in their game library, I'm not going to be standing in line for the next one.

[Earl Benser]

How much has MS lost so far?

I get the impression that MS is considerably in the red on Xbox 1
finances. Anyone got the numbers?

it's well worth it

MS takes a loss with each unit sold, but that loss is offset with their software sales for the xbox...namely Halo/Halo2 and others.

As far as making money on their consoles, Nintendo is the only manufacturer that has been able to do that successfully of the three. MS wasn't concerned with making money on their first attempt in the console market. They wanted market share...mission accomplished. Xenon will be their 2nd wave attack, and I think it will gain them even more ground in the cosole war. Sony and MS need to watch out for Nintendo...I think they got something cooking with Revolution.

[Earl Benser]

Finances include Xbox AND Games

One without the other is meaningless. And I would expect MS to
lose thier shirt on the Xbox itself and then make it back in the
games. HP does it on printers. Polaroid did it with cameras.

[Chung Leong]

They can't win in the Japanese market

Even if they can make a better machine than Sony, I doubt that it'd do well in Japan. The Japanese people are very nationalistic. They won't buy a foreign product if there's a comparable domestic one. Take a look at the Kodak vs. Fuji Film case and you'll know what I mean.

[Thomas, David]

Hmmm not so true.

The Japanese are just like any other fashion, technical conscious
consumers. If they weren't Apple would not have the success it has
in Japan.

I believe, that if Microsoft ever gets it right, they will succeed. They
have the deepest pockets on the planet, and they can afford to get
it wrong until they get it right. That is, of course, if they ever do
get it right.

[bobby_brady]

I'm optimistic with Xbox2

As I think Sony has lost focus on what a game console should be. I think Sony's "cell" processor was the cause of that.

Microsoft needs to make sure there are plenty of good games available though.

[Andrew J Glina]

Why?

What is wrong with Cell? Yes, it is more complicated, but Sony has assured it's developers that they should be able to program it the same way as the PS2. Unless you know something new I think your judgment is a tad premature.

[Earl Benser]

Also,.... Media Center?????

Ol' Bill is now talking up the new Xbox as a media center, like it
is going to take over TV and Movies and Photos and chat (and
other IM options), and VoIP, and everything else in the
communications/entertainment area.

Now I don't play games. (I once had a Sega, but I think that one
of the kids got it maybe fifteen years ago ;-)) But somehow, this
universal, all-in-one, do-everything-for-everybody, Xbox
design doesn't seem to be a rational thought. It sounds like just
one more delusional idea about to at least have a hard landing,
if not a full crash.

Do people really want that kind of a device?

[Christopher Hall]

An excellent question

It's sort of hot and cold on whether you want a game machine that does much more. You look at fairly recent history and the cartridge game consoles only played games and did little else. This is a stance Nintendo has maintained for years, and it looks like they will carry that through with Revolution.

Starting with the Sony Playstation, though, new features have been added over time. Most people don't realize it, but the Playstation actually plays audio CDs. Dreamcast followed suit with that, as well as adding internet connectivity. I recall that people were skeptical whether or not a DVD player had a place in a video game console back when the first specs came out on PS2 and Xbox, but I actually find it to be incredibly handy. To be truthful, I don't own a standalone DVD player; I just use my PS2.

Adding features is also a bit of a touchy subject, though, because it drives the cost up. Look at the Sony PSX, which was released in Japan only. The thing was supposed to be a sort of uber-game console, playing PS2 games, DVDs, recording TV, and playing all sorts of music. With a price tag over US$500 for the base model, the device was an unmitigated failure.

Fast forward to today and it sounds like Microsoft plans to release something similar within their next Xbox. History leaves a large shadow on the "all-in-one" devices (*cough*NGage*cough*), but I'm hesitant to use the past to indicate the future. I, for one, would love to have a game system that doubled as a DVR-like device. Transferring shows to my other computers would be a nice plus, as well.

Convergence

I think convergence will catch on, but probably not as quickly as these tech companies want it to. The reason is that they have to prove that these convergent devices can handle each of these functions with the same quality, or close enough quality, to that of standalone devices.

And that will be a hard sell for most, but over time, it is likely to happen. These convergent devices will eventually become good enough at all of their functions, and will likely be cheaper than a collection of standalone devices to get all the same features, that, yes, they will get solid penetration into the market. Gradually, people will begin to see the little advantages of this approach, and word will slowly spread.

Do I think that people are going to go out, grab these convergent devices, and throw out all their standalone devices? No--that is a foolish expectation, and I hope none of these companies is that stupid. Well, actually, I do hope MS is, because I enjoy seeing them fall on their face, but that's about it.

However, electronics do wear out, and when you need to start replacing things, or if you don't have much anyway, then you might start considering these multifunction devices--especially if they end up being superior in some way to your old single-function devices.

So, there might not be that much of a market now, but if these guys play their cards right, they might create the market in the future. As usual, though, the hype is well ahead of the reality--but that's why it's hype.

[201293546946733175101343322673]

New Xbox has "chance" to be No. 1, Gates says

Yeah, right, I wonder how big the "chance" would be, 1% maybe? :)

[Christopher Hall]

What makes you say that?

I seem to recall hearing something similar right before Xbox's launch, only people doubted they would be able to break out of a distant third.

Huh.

Time will tell. They're poised to make some big waves if they play their cards right. So far, they've had no problems doing that.

Hints of the future... yes, Convergence

In 1983, I asked the exec's of Compuserve/AOL if they truely believed that every home in America would be able to afford a PC, let alone, more than ONE PC! They enthusiastically said, "Yes".

It was an absurd assumption when PC were priced at $4000 for 512K of HD, cassette tape storage, etc... Now, fast forward to the present. We're all discussing gaming consoles with 1000 times more capacity and power than PC's in the 80's.

I got a chance to play with a DEC mini computer in 1984, it was a blast, but it was the size of a refridgerator (hardly a 'game' console).

Now, I carry a Treo with all that capability and more (online video, music, video chat, GAMEs, movie recorder, mp3 player). THAT's CONVERGENCE.

Gaming is a big market, because it rivals that of the Movie Industry in terms of money generated by consumers at theaters.

Sony is ahead of Microsoft because they recognized convergence, with the release of the PSP (hot gaming machine, music, and MOVIES).

Microsoft is not 'innovating' in any sense. It is leveraging the RISK's that companies such as SONY had taken, to advance its market share without having to take the risk itself.

Sony is still ahead of Microsoft, because it embedded wireless technology into the PSP. Thus, if Microsoft wants to be No. 1 in the gaming console for the home; it can, but it will be the loser in this battle. Sony took the battle OUT of the home, moving into the mobile market for gaming, multi-player online, and wireless ad-hoc gaming.

A big sign that Sony had learn its lesson is its decision to withdraw from the PDA market last year. Without wireless connectivity, it was dead-in-the-water. Thus the PSP.

I don't use my Treo as much anymore; having replaced it with the PSP while on-the-go.

My son (7-years old) and I are going to hold out for the PlayStation 3; since, if we are to look for innovation, SONY is the only way to go.

Buying an XBox Xenon would only be locking myself into a legacy environment that I can't upgrade as new forms of entertainment and gaming evolve. Look at how Microsoft dominated the PC market, yet, no one plays games on them as much as the consoles. Dominance of a market doesn't mean innovation.

The Cell architecture by IBM/Sony/etc... is a major break from the past in terms of computing with respect to Gaming and Media processing. I look forward to new gaming styles and gameplay on this new hardware platform.