Mobile WiMax must grab YouTube generation, says analyst

Fledgling technology mobile WiMax could rack up 80 million subscribers within five years--despite having just two commercial networks to its name to date. But the technology must hook the YouTube generation, according to analyst house Juniper Research.

In its latest forecast, Juniper Research predicts mobile WiMax will begin to take off between 2012 and 2013--with worldwide subscriber numbers exceeding 80 million by 2013. No small achievement for a newbie tech--even if it still might be considered small-fry when compared with souped-up 3G technology HSPA, which is slated to dominate the mobile broadband market. HSPA currently has around 11.5 million subscribers globally, according to international 3G advocate the UMTS Forum.

Report author and analyst at Juniper Research, Howard Wilcox, said in a statement: "Mobile WiMax will represent a single digit proportion of the global mobile broadband base by 2013. This will be a tremendous achievement for this new technology platform which has recently been boosted by the ITU's (International Telecommunication Union's) endorsement of it as an IMT2000 specification."

IMT2000--the global standard for 3G mobile wireless communications--welcomed WiMax to the fold back in October.

Although many trials of mobile WiMax are taking place worldwide, including in the U.K., there are just two commercial networks up and running, both in Korea.

Wilcox added that even though the Far East has led the way when it comes to mobile WiMax, the technology has still got off to a very slow start. "One of the reasons is lack of availability of handsets," he explained. "Once you start to get laptops with integrated WiMax, then that'll be quite a kick-start for take-up."

The analyst said mobile WiMax service providers will need to differentiate offerings to stand out from other mobile broadband offerings--something that makes the future roadmap of the technology hard to draw.

Wilcox told CNET News.com sister site Silicon.com: "As with any new technology there's an awful lot of uncertainty. We're right on the cusp of the start of this marketplace.

"Clearly there's going to be an awful lot of competition out there. The WiMax players are going to want to differentiate and come in with some strong attractive financial offers and innovative service offerings whatever they may be--maybe some exclusive deals with particular device manufacturers or content providers--and at the same time the existing 3G players are going to be--and indeed already are with HSPA--improving their offerings in the face of a new technology like WiMax. So it's a very complex equation."

The analyst said the 18- to 35-year-old age group is likely to be a key demographic--and mobile WiMax service providers must think about developing packages that will appeal to this target market, bearing in mind this may mean developing offerings for future users who are 16 years old today.

He said: "What they're going to have to do is think about the things that make the sort of sticky services that demographic likes the most. That could include social networking, it could include YouTube-type services, it could include music MP3-based services, maybe the ability to download direct to an MP3 player rather than via a PC. They're going to have to construct packages which appeal and provide differentiation, either through new advanced features and capabilities or from a price perspective that'll win over the key target age group."

Juniper Research sees the top markets for mobile WiMax as being the U.S.--which has a number of large and small players with plans to build out networks--along with Japan and South Korea.

It predicts global revenue for mobile WiMax services will grow to more than $23 billion a year by 2013.

Natasha Lomas of Silicon.com reported from London.

[kgsbca]

another meaningless prediction by industry analyst

So they're saying that high bandwidth mobile technology will only succeed if a particular demographic adopts it. I guess they realize that their predictions of market size are never right, so they are trying to forecast something that can't be wrong - basically they are saying that if a large part of the population doesn't use this new technology, then it won't be a success. Yes, and if GM doesn't sell cars to the youtube generation, they won't be a success either. What meaningless drivel.

If mobile wimax works, the only issue will be its' cost. If service providers want to charge $100 per month, it will be a failure. If it's $20 per month, it will be a huge hit.

I know phone companies and cable companies and wireless providers like to think of themselves as providers of entertainment, but all anybody really wants from them is access to the internet. We don't even need their lousy phone service or cable TV, just give us 100 Mbps to the internet, and get out of the way.

[rshimizu12]

Public spectrum

One big difference between Wimax and these other broadband wireless protocols is that Wimax can operate in the public spectrum. Home Wimax base stations will be available soon. There is 7 or 8 companies that showed them earlier this year. Once people begin to realize that they can have web free web access for miles away then Wimax will quickly take off.

The main impediment will be price and economies of scale.

[Rut610]

WiMAX

Since Clearwire and Sprint plan on launching WiMAX nationwide in the Summer of '08, someone better tell them that it's not going to take off until 2013 per the YouTube generation.

[Quemannn]

Forecasting while looking into rearview mirrors

Market researchers and analysts normally make the right predictions, when it comes to the well-established industry. But coming to the subject of new technoloyg, they are just blind to the future but are talking while looking into rearview mirrors. HSPA prevails in USA, where averge download speed is below 10 Mbps. In Korea, the average download speed is well over 40 Mbps. That is why mobile WiMAX is going smooth.

One major drawback is mobile WiMAX doesn't have any flagship device for now. However, who knows? Technological brakthroughs will enable a 'wheeled' generation of mobile devices, so-called dashtop mobile equipment, to start a triple-digit
growth. There is uncertainty, yeah, either positive or negative. But remember, market researchers and analysts are mostly blind to the future.