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As for phase change memory, Cambou stated: "In 2016 maybe it is a good idea, but it will take 10 years before it gets cheap." Some phase change advocates say that the memory could start popping out in the next few years. Then again, the concept of phase change memory has been around since the early '70s.
Handy agrees, to a point. Charge trapping will likely be easier to adopt than phase change or rewritable 3D memory. It's more of an evolutionary step than a rewrite of the cookbook. Big companies have also expressed quite a bit of interest. But whether they will have to pay Spansion is an open question.
"Everybody says ONO is the way we will have to go. Samsung has said they are going to use ONO. The question is whether they are going to be tripping over the (Spansion) patent portfolio," Cambou said.
Ironically, Spansion's own experience with Saifun may be an indicator that licensing could be in the cards. When it was an independent company, Saifun tried to license the technology to AMD. AMD came out with its MirrorBit memory. A lawsuit ensued that later settled.
Spansion will, of course, also continue to make chips and increase the amount of manufacturing it outsources to foundries. The company has signed deals with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. as well as China's . Currently, foundries make about half of Spansion's chips, Cambou said. Spansion's portion will ultimately drop to 40 percent or 30 percent.
In these arrangements, Spansion will make the chips requiring the most advanced processes while the foundries will make chips on manufacturing equipment that is one generation older.
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