Investors, analysts frown on exit of Siebel CEO

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than Oracle can chew at the moment. The fact that Oracle Chief Larry Ellison and Tom Siebel are sworn enemies could also make agreeing on a price difficult.

"It think it would be very messy for Oracle," ThinkEquity's Coleman said.

An Oracle representative said the company doesn't comment on rumors.

Analysts have long mentioned Microsoft and Germany's SAP as possible buyers. But SAP has spent years building Siebel-like products and has said it's not interested in buying companies with overlapping technology. And Microsoft is wary of going head-on with SAP and Oracle in the business applications market--something they'd have to do if they acquired Siebel.

The speculation over a buyout indicates investors and analysts are looking for something more. Few think Shaheen can accomplish what Lawrie set out to do, which was to turn the struggling company around with a renewed focus on "customer value" and a hard examination of costs and operations. Shaheen's plans sound strikingly similar to Lawrie's--a fact that elicited an unusual level of skepticism during the call.

One fund manager testily pointed out to Shaheen during the call that the company's stock dropped 20 cents after he began talking.

"I think you're getting a real-time reaction here," Barry Rosenstein of Siebel shareholder Jana Partners said.

At one point, Shaheen, who was thought to be semiretired, was compelled to defend himself and his plan.

"I can only tell you that I've stayed close to the technology community through various boards I'm on," Shaheen said during the conference call. "I've gotten closer to Siebel the last few years because I've had the time to do it. I understand the business and the company. I'm confident in my own abilities and we'll see what happens."

The shares slipped 29 cents, or about 3 percent, Wednesday to close at $8.68 a share, below Tuesday's closing price. The day Siebel announced Lawrie's appointment, the stock jumped 30 cents on the news.

The revolving door is likely to upset customers too. Companies that spend millions of dollars on the kind of software Siebel and its competitors sell don't like to have to worry about a supplier's viability.

"This is going to create amazing hay for Salesforce, SAP and Oracle," Coleman said. "As a stock analyst, I would want to tell everyone to buy a bunch of stock in those companies."