HDTV's big-screen reality

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But what should consumers have their eyes on? While some electronics heavyweights are competing for the title of most-likely-to-be-seen-on-MTV's-"Cribs" (see LG's 100-inch and Samsung's 102-inch LCDs or the Panasonic 103-inch plasma TV), bigger isn't necessarily better--especially if it's not in your budget, according to Gene Ornstead of ViewSonic.

That said, the typical HDTV is certainly getting bigger. The price of a 32-inch LCD has come down substantially, according to iSuppli. Consumers are beginning to purchase 32-inch LCD screens for bedrooms, kitchens and offices, while the size of the primary living-room TV is growing. iSuppli says 40 inches and larger is the new trend.

"Thirty-two (inches) was acceptable for your main television, but that is no longer the case," said Riddhi Patel, principal analyst for television systems at iSuppli.

The price difference between the rival flat-panel technologies in that size category will all but disappear by the end of the year, according to Patel. The average price of all brands of 42-inch high-definition plasma sets was just above $2,000 in the second quarter of this year. By the time the holiday shopping season arrives, she said that average should drop to $1,875.

"What is overlooked is the fact that a market is developing, and the opportunity is huge."

--David Bunzel, managing director, Santa Clara Consulting Group

Rear-projection TVs, traditionally not as sexy as flat panels, have gradually been left out of the high-definition debate between LCD and plasma. Analysts say that while microdisplay RPTVs might be down, they're not out just yet. Though not as bulky as before, the success of flat panels has hurt a technology for which many had high expectations.

"That market was supposed to do wonders. A lot was going to happen, and there are innovations still happening in that market, but consumers have pretty much lost interest," Patel said.

Why? Although rear projection was previously the pinnacle of big-screen viewing, flat panels are catching up in size and price. The premium of paying for a large HDTV that hangs on a wall has diminished to about $400, according to iSuppli year-end projections.

Still, the technology of microdisplay rear projection is being refined, with attention focused on color improvement and laser and LED as light sources.

The 1080p conundrum
The importance of having a TV capable of 1080p depends on whom you ask. Panasonic's Liao told attendees at the DisplaySearch HDTV conference in August that 1080p is "essential technology for screens larger than 50 inches, especially if you want that immersive experience."

ViewSonic's Ornstead said 1080p is probably overkill for most people who don't consider themselves hard-core videophiles. "I don't see the general consumer even stepping up to HD wanting to step up to the added cost of a 1080p display. It's not like the difference between standard TV and HD."

Any improvement, he said, is much more subtle.

NPD's Baker agreed. Although right now "it's hard to see people jumping $1,000 to get up to 1080p," lower prices in 2007 could encourage more adoption, he said.

As screen sizes grow and resolutions sharpen, so does the benefit of having high-definition content. Blue-laser technology, utilizing a shorter wavelength to create next-generation DVDs with triple the capacity of traditional discs, will be a vital part of HD adoption, according to David Bunzel, managing director of market research firm Santa Clara Consulting Group.

Blue-laser technology encompasses more than movies and players. It's in game consoles and games, PC drives and recordable media, sales of which SCCG predicts will exceed $28 billion by 2010.

However, Bunzel also warns against getting too wrapped up in the so-called format race between HD DVD and Blu-ray. "What is overlooked is the fact that a market is developing, and the opportunity is huge," he said.

When will be a good time to join the race? Bunzel says holiday prices will be a more accurate indication of what you can expect to pay for HD DVD and Blu-ray players.

Although the full HD infrastructure clearly isn't complete, NPD's Baker preaches patience. High prices are just part of the normal growing pains that come when a technology begins to permeate the mainstream consumer consciousness, he says.

"We need to give all this stuff some time to mature and grow into the marketplace," Baker said, which he predicts won't happen until at least 2007 or 2008.

Like the iPod and TiVo, he said, "people tend to dismiss things right off, if they're not huge successes, but time has shown us (that) as these kinds of technologies work their way through, eventually, somebody gets it."