January 31, 2006 1:57 PM PST

Google stumbles with first earnings miss

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October 20, 2005
A correction was made to this story. Read below for details.
Google's honeymoon with the stock market took a breather on Tuesday as the search giant missed earnings expectations for the first time since it went public in 2004, sending its stock price into an after-hours trading spiral.

The company posted fourth-quarter earnings that missed analyst estimates, although revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs, or commissions paid to content partners, at $1.29 billion, rose from the same period a year ago and was in line with expectations.

Gross revenue was $1.92 billion, up 86 percent from a year ago.

Earnings per share for the quarter were $1.22, or $1.54 a share excluding one-time items, including stock-based compensation charges and a donation to the philanthropic Google Foundation. That compared with 71 cents a share a year ago. On that basis, analysts had been expecting earnings per share of $1.76.

Listen up

Despite Google missing investor expectations for earnings per share, company CEO Eric Schmidt said during a fourth-quarter earnings conference call that he was very pleased with results.
Listen now... (1.4MB mp3)

Google's earnings per share would have been $1.78 if the tax rate in the quarter had not been higher than expected, Chief Financial Officer George Reyes said in a conference call with analysts.

Google's share price has more than doubled in the past year and risen more than 40 percent since its last earnings report, closing at $432.66 on Tuesday, giving it a market capitalization of about $127 billion.

In after-hours trade on Tuesday, however, the stock fell as much as 19 percent, a loss of more than $24 billion in market value, before easing later in the day. The stock was trading at $381.50, down nearly 12 percent, at 5:38 p.m. PST.

Despite the fact that the company missed analyst estimates on earnings, executives said they were pleased with the results, particularly the fact that increased seasonal growth in traffic and monetization boosted revenue. The company is focused on the continued growth opportunities in Internet advertising and in international sales, said Chief Executive Eric Schmidt.

Sizing up Google stock
What you get for $400 a share
Search giant Google is hardly just about search anymore. Here's a look at how it makes its money.

"Most important, we believe the rate of innovation will increase in 2006 as we continue to bring the most talented minds into Google and our unique innovative model delivers amazing new products," he told analysts in the conference call. "So we take the long-term view of business and we are going to invest for the long-term and make some really big bets."

Almost all of Google's revenue comes from advertisements that appear on search result pages and on partner Web sites. Advertising on Google-owned sites generated 57 percent of total revenue, while partner sites generated 42 percent.

For the full year, Google posted revenue of $6.14 billion, up more than 92 percent from 2004, with net income at $1.465 billion from $399 million a year earlier.

The number of full-time Google employees jumped to 5,680 at the end of 2005, up from 3,021 at the end of the year before.

Over the next three years, Google expects to invest $175 million in for-profit companies that are progressive environmentally, socially or economically, Reyes said.

In response to an analyst question about reports that Google is planning to move into the hardware or desktop software market, Schmidt said the company would continue to team with its hardware and software partners and focus on providing multiplatform Internet search and services instead.

"There has been an awful lot of speculation about Google playing in those markets, Google PC. To me, most of those are people projecting the last war, not the next opportunity, on us and from my perspective, those are not very interesting business opportunities," Schmidt said. "They are well covered in the market. We partner with many of the players. We would much prefer to partner with them than to go into competition with them."

Listen up

In response to an analyst's question, Schmidt said his company will rely on partners for hardware and software applications while remaining focused on Internet services for multiple platforms.
Listen now... (852KB mp3)

The Internet ad and service market Google is making money off is large, he said. "It makes no sense to divert our resources to these much smaller opportunities."

Analysts were mixed on whether the Google stock sell-off would continue through Wednesday or level off. "I would expect this sell-off to continue tomorrow," said Scott Devitt of Legg Mason Wood Walker. "It will be an interesting day in the Internet sector tomorrow. I can guarantee you that."

Devitt said he had changed his rating on Google to "sell" from "hold" the day after Yahoo posted fourth-quarter net income that missed analyst expectations, sending its share price down more than 12 percent in after-hours trading.

Safa Rashtchy of Piper Jaffray said he thought people could see the lower Google stock price as a good buying opportunity. "The company's business is very strong. The growth was not slower, but still much faster than the (overall) market," he said. "I don't think this was a disappointing quarter at all. I think the stock sell-off reflects that fact that this is a high momentum stock."

Google's position in search continues to grow. Its share of searches grew from 45.7 percent last June to 46.3 percent in November, when it had 2.4 billion searches, according to Nielsen/NetRatings. During the fourth quarter its impressions of sponsored search links rose 12 percent to 16.5 billion in December.

Google had beaten analyst estimates in previous quarters. Last quarter, Google's revenue nearly doubled from a year earlier and profit rose to $1.32 a share, driving the company's shares up 12 percent and prompting analysts to raise their 2006 target prices.

This month the company made headlines for its policies on how it handles data and government requests for users' activity on the site. It was hailed for rejecting a Justice Department subpoena for information on user Web searches that rivals Yahoo, Microsoft and America Online complied with. However, its decision to launch a censored search site in China has been widely criticized.

 
Correction: This story incorrectly stated the revenue excluding traffic acquisition costs.

See more CNET content tagged:
earnings per share, Eric Schmidt, earnings, Google Inc., expectation

43 comments

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Add your comment
Do you research first
GOOG has been under pressure for the past few days. Look at Google's chart last week and you'll see a substantial drop (to under $400) the same day the government said they would pursue this matter. Granted they recovered a bit before the drops again today, but to say that the two are unconnected isn't accurate.
Posted by (13 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Do you research first
GOOG has been under pressure for the past few days. Look at Google's chart last week and you'll see a substantial drop (to under $400) the same day the government said they would pursue this matter. Granted they recovered a bit before the drops again today, but to say that the two are unconnected isn't accurate.
Posted by (13 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Top 5 Reasons GOOG Can NOT Sustain $400
1) The hype surrounding the company pushed PPC prices to the stratosphere, and now they are coming back to earth. A few months ago, much was made about how "mesothelioma" was getting $100 per click. That figure is down to around $15. This is just one of thousands of examples.
2) Ad-sense has been too successful. A very large cadre of content partners are doing nothing but farming adsense clicks. This makes their search less relevant, and puts the whole model at risk.
3) As in reason #2, Google has not been selective enough in choosing content partners. As a webmaster and busines owner, I can tell you that click fraud is a waaaay bigger problem than the 5 - 15 percent that Google acknowledges. At least it is in my line of work.
4) This is purely speculation, but I firmly believe that a large percentage of their revenue comes from people seeking illegal content (see my article at <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com/2006/01/hows-that-do-no-evil-coming-along.html" target="_newWindow">http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com/2006/01/hows-that-do-no-evil-coming-along.html</a>). Check out the top 1000 search terms. Half of them are for porn, many of which are for disgusting terms such as "incest" and "preteen models". Seven of the top 10 are porn-related, assuming the searches for "paris hilton" are coming from fans of the sex tape and not "The Simple Life".
5) Ad-sense results for the customers are appalling. Again, their less-than-honest partner sites are creating false impressions to defraud the advertisers. I had a campaign on partner sites where the CPM rate was $5. My click through ratio was .0001. That is one click per 10,000 impressions, or $50 PER CLICK. Why would I continue to pay that when I can get clicks for 25 cents on Yahoo? (To be fair, Yahoo has its problems, too)

Look out below.

Mark Brandon
Sustainable Log - News and Views for Socially Responsible Investors
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com" target="_newWindow">http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com</a>
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.firstsustainable.com" target="_newWindow">http://www.firstsustainable.com</a>
When you subscribe to Sustainable Log, we give $1 to Alternative Gifts International in support of a cause of your choice.
Posted by 208mbrandon (23 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Informative post
Very interesting insights from someone who actually has experience with online ads.

It's refreshing to read this kind of post because God knows how many Google-bandwagon hoppers there are out there.
Posted by dysonl (151 comments )
Link Flag
you totally missed it..
only the first reason you listed is of any relevance, and even that, not so much. the reason google can't sustain a market capitalisation of 120 billion is they have an annual revenue of 5 billion. look at microsoft, at intel, apple, ibm, dell, any other company in the world and compare their revenues to their worth. this looks like 'http://enron.google.com; to me.
Posted by mortis9 (370 comments )
Link Flag
Top 5 Reasons GOOG Can NOT Sustain $400
1) The hype surrounding the company pushed PPC prices to the stratosphere, and now they are coming back to earth. A few months ago, much was made about how "mesothelioma" was getting $100 per click. That figure is down to around $15. This is just one of thousands of examples.
2) Ad-sense has been too successful. A very large cadre of content partners are doing nothing but farming adsense clicks. This makes their search less relevant, and puts the whole model at risk.
3) As in reason #2, Google has not been selective enough in choosing content partners. As a webmaster and busines owner, I can tell you that click fraud is a waaaay bigger problem than the 5 - 15 percent that Google acknowledges. At least it is in my line of work.
4) This is purely speculation, but I firmly believe that a large percentage of their revenue comes from people seeking illegal content (see my article at <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com/2006/01/hows-that-do-no-evil-coming-along.html" target="_newWindow">http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com/2006/01/hows-that-do-no-evil-coming-along.html</a>). Check out the top 1000 search terms. Half of them are for porn, many of which are for disgusting terms such as "incest" and "preteen models". Seven of the top 10 are porn-related, assuming the searches for "paris hilton" are coming from fans of the sex tape and not "The Simple Life".
5) Ad-sense results for the customers are appalling. Again, their less-than-honest partner sites are creating false impressions to defraud the advertisers. I had a campaign on partner sites where the CPM rate was $5. My click through ratio was .0001. That is one click per 10,000 impressions, or $50 PER CLICK. Why would I continue to pay that when I can get clicks for 25 cents on Yahoo? (To be fair, Yahoo has its problems, too)

Look out below.

Mark Brandon
Sustainable Log - News and Views for Socially Responsible Investors
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com" target="_newWindow">http://sustainablelog.blogspot.com</a>
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.firstsustainable.com" target="_newWindow">http://www.firstsustainable.com</a>
When you subscribe to Sustainable Log, we give $1 to Alternative Gifts International in support of a cause of your choice.
Posted by 208mbrandon (23 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Informative post
Very interesting insights from someone who actually has experience with online ads.

It's refreshing to read this kind of post because God knows how many Google-bandwagon hoppers there are out there.
Posted by dysonl (151 comments )
Link Flag
you totally missed it..
only the first reason you listed is of any relevance, and even that, not so much. the reason google can't sustain a market capitalisation of 120 billion is they have an annual revenue of 5 billion. look at microsoft, at intel, apple, ibm, dell, any other company in the world and compare their revenues to their worth. this looks like 'http://enron.google.com; to me.
Posted by mortis9 (370 comments )
Link Flag
This was bound to happen...
This was bound to happen. Where's the beef?

A lot of Google is smoke.
Posted by Stan Johnson (322 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Uh....
Google is still generating billions of dollars. If that is 'smoke', give me some of that. :-)
Posted by stephenpace (72 comments )
Link Flag
This was bound to happen...
This was bound to happen. Where's the beef?

A lot of Google is smoke.
Posted by Stan Johnson (322 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Uh....
Google is still generating billions of dollars. If that is 'smoke', give me some of that. :-)
Posted by stephenpace (72 comments )
Link Flag
The end of GOOG
This I believe is the beggining of a very slippery slope for Google. The pay per click fad is on the way out because as much as 90% of clicks do not result in cash sales for the company advertising on google. They need to show they are still quick to innovate on money making products ie not gmail, earth and maps they need a cash cow and their best route would be to aquire or create an online desktop, simular to <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.cosmopod.com" target="_newWindow">http://www.cosmopod.com</a>
Posted by iqula (59 comments )
Reply Link Flag
I don't think so.
If the PPC system were going to die, it would have done so long before now. No, those people want people to click on their sites, even if people buying is better, those ads do much to raise awareness as seal business. On an Internet that is spread far and wide, even cropping up on an ad can make the money they charge worth it.

I have put Google Ads onto one of my sites to see what the fuss was about, and indeed, they make money. It has even boosted traffic to my site if I had to guess, as they are almost as good as content in some ways. I would have guessed the PPC system would have died years ago, but nobody knew how to do it as well as Google and Yahoo are doing it.

And lets remember what Google's stock started at? I don't think most people expected it to get as high as it has, so losing a bit should panic people. Plus the darned company still doubled its earnings, which is more than a lot of dog companies have done.

I worry more about Google doing something new and interesting that keeps the buzz and hype going.

NWLB
******
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.nwlb.net" target="_newWindow">http://www.nwlb.net</a>
Posted by NWLB (326 comments )
Link Flag
The end of GOOG
This I believe is the beggining of a very slippery slope for Google. The pay per click fad is on the way out because as much as 90% of clicks do not result in cash sales for the company advertising on google. They need to show they are still quick to innovate on money making products ie not gmail, earth and maps they need a cash cow and their best route would be to aquire or create an online desktop, simular to <a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.cosmopod.com" target="_newWindow">http://www.cosmopod.com</a>
Posted by iqula (59 comments )
Reply Link Flag
I don't think so.
If the PPC system were going to die, it would have done so long before now. No, those people want people to click on their sites, even if people buying is better, those ads do much to raise awareness as seal business. On an Internet that is spread far and wide, even cropping up on an ad can make the money they charge worth it.

I have put Google Ads onto one of my sites to see what the fuss was about, and indeed, they make money. It has even boosted traffic to my site if I had to guess, as they are almost as good as content in some ways. I would have guessed the PPC system would have died years ago, but nobody knew how to do it as well as Google and Yahoo are doing it.

And lets remember what Google's stock started at? I don't think most people expected it to get as high as it has, so losing a bit should panic people. Plus the darned company still doubled its earnings, which is more than a lot of dog companies have done.

I worry more about Google doing something new and interesting that keeps the buzz and hype going.

NWLB
******
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.nwlb.net" target="_newWindow">http://www.nwlb.net</a>
Posted by NWLB (326 comments )
Link Flag
Don't do evil...deal with tank rolling commies.
Ah, the boys at the "don't be evil" campus.
There is little doubt that the Google boys have a possibly unsurmountable lead in paid searches (after a huge investment and the repeated attempts of Mr. Softie, they continue to dominate the market.) (I think the next "big thing" are these "tagged searches" like Furl).
Having said that, the stock price has become detached from reality. Of course, stocks are forward looking, but when Google started reaching Henry Blodget/Amazon.com $400 levels, the smart money should have considered taking some money off the table.

Clearly, investors might start rethinking their hopes of an endless upward trajectory, but all good things that rely on both hype and fundamentals are subject to market realities. Recently, investors have warmed back to Yahoo. While this may be a long range trend, Google clearly will move forward (yet, just now are investing in Israel!) and will recover. My guess is the market reaction was related to so many smaller, weak-kneed investors getting spooked.

Paging Mr. Greenspan: "irrational exuberance" deja vu?
Posted by ejpasseos (14 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Google in China
I'm not sure why people are attacking Google for selling a service in China. Is Google not an American company? Does AMERICA not provide China with favoured trading status?

Perhaps the problem is with electing a Government in the US that continues to deal with China? Why not pressure your Government to cut of China like they do Cuba?

I'm sure you have NOTHING in your house/ownership that was made in China right?
Posted by KsprayDad (375 comments )
Link Flag
Don't do evil...deal with tank rolling commies.
Ah, the boys at the "don't be evil" campus.
There is little doubt that the Google boys have a possibly unsurmountable lead in paid searches (after a huge investment and the repeated attempts of Mr. Softie, they continue to dominate the market.) (I think the next "big thing" are these "tagged searches" like Furl).
Having said that, the stock price has become detached from reality. Of course, stocks are forward looking, but when Google started reaching Henry Blodget/Amazon.com $400 levels, the smart money should have considered taking some money off the table.

Clearly, investors might start rethinking their hopes of an endless upward trajectory, but all good things that rely on both hype and fundamentals are subject to market realities. Recently, investors have warmed back to Yahoo. While this may be a long range trend, Google clearly will move forward (yet, just now are investing in Israel!) and will recover. My guess is the market reaction was related to so many smaller, weak-kneed investors getting spooked.

Paging Mr. Greenspan: "irrational exuberance" deja vu?
Posted by ejpasseos (14 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Google in China
I'm not sure why people are attacking Google for selling a service in China. Is Google not an American company? Does AMERICA not provide China with favoured trading status?

Perhaps the problem is with electing a Government in the US that continues to deal with China? Why not pressure your Government to cut of China like they do Cuba?

I'm sure you have NOTHING in your house/ownership that was made in China right?
Posted by KsprayDad (375 comments )
Link Flag
Message has been deleted.
Posted by Manfred Levy (24 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Sounds like a plug for his company to me. n/m
n/m

www.NWLB.net
Posted by NWLB (326 comments )
Link Flag
Anoox is a waste of time...
And it certainly is not making any noticeable impact on Google.
As a search engine, it is incompetent. It's design and operation
are fundamentally flawed. It's cheap, because it IS cheap. No one
wants to pay for a loser. And once more, you are sounding like
just another Anoox shill being paid to repeat the same phony
claims whenever possible.

But that's okay. You need to make a living anyway you can. And
the Anoox message is easy to discard or ignore. We won't shoot
you. Just nest time, I hope they pay you more than 2 cents.
Posted by Earl Benser (4310 comments )
Link Flag
Go away
Can all of you people that are 'plants' for anakooky please go away! Are you hoping that the more your mention Anakooky that your rankings will go up in Google / Yahoo and the rest.

I am NOT a google shareholder but I do scan C|net comments for REAL opinions...Anakooky has caused Google to go down? You are a freak.
Posted by KsprayDad (375 comments )
Link Flag
Unlikely
The anoox is too slow and doesn't at this point provide relevant results. I'm not a google shareholder. Google is still the best search engine by far and MS and Yahoo with all their money still have not caught up to Google in their algorithms/search results. They did 2B in revenues with 500M in cash flow. I don't call that stumbling. So what they missed their target stock price by .25 cents a share. No big deal. 500M in cash flow is a big deal.
Posted by hkhodave (2 comments )
Link Flag
Anoox !
After reading the piece from Manfred Levy I was looking forward to another search engine which promised to be at least as good as the very excellent Google, if not better.

I accessed Anoox and put several strings in for search purposes. Leaving aside the fact that there is only one search option on Anoox (Search the Web), the results with which I was presented were so wide of the mark as to be practically useless. Additionally the item presentations did not 'spring' out of the page in the same way that the Google findings do. Maybe I'm just used to Google.

Perhaps Anoox will make a few giant strides and catch up, but right now it's got a long, long, very long way to go in my view. Manfred and I must see things in an entirely different way.
Posted by Pattie O'Dors (1 comment )
Link Flag
Missed Earnings ???
Typically, a public company's CFO speaks privately in broad terms with stock analysts. Then these analysts eat lunch, scratch their butts and write reports based on what the CFO told them. They may adjust the numbers a bit based on past history of what the CFO told them before and what the actual number came in at in previous quarters. NO REAL RESEARCH IS DONE.

Google refuses to speak with the analysts. So, these analyst clowns have to try to figure out targets with NO EXPERIENCE figuring them out before.

Google didn't miss anything. A few guys with NO KNOWLEDGE made up some earnings targets. Google's earnings came in below those fake numbers.

Now, whether or not Google is worth $400 a share is another topic, but missing targets?? Please.

(Former corporate controller of a public company - now a tech guy.)
Posted by regulator1956 (577 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Missed Earnings ???
Typically, a public company's CFO speaks privately in broad terms with stock analysts. Then these analysts eat lunch, scratch their butts and write reports based on what the CFO told them. They may adjust the numbers a bit based on past history of what the CFO told them before and what the actual number came in at in previous quarters. NO REAL RESEARCH IS DONE.

Google refuses to speak with the analysts. So, these analyst clowns have to try to figure out targets with NO EXPERIENCE figuring them out before.

Google didn't miss anything. A few guys with NO KNOWLEDGE made up some earnings targets. Google's earnings came in below those fake numbers.

Now, whether or not Google is worth $400 a share is another topic, but missing targets?? Please.

(Former corporate controller of a public company - now a tech guy.)
Posted by regulator1956 (577 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Reality Check
It's funny, but I think people are starting to realise they've paid over $400 for a search engine stock - nothing else, just a search engine.

While it is the most used search engine out there, and obviously Google make a stack of cash from their adwords thing, it is still just a search engine.

I don't particularly like Microsoft that much, but they do have something in common with Google. They have a search engine too - it isn't used as much, but it pretty much gives the same results. But for some reason a company that also has productivity software on 95% of corporate PCs, a paid for OS on 95% of corporate PCs, development software used by at least 75% of corporate developers (who may also use other software, but they do have Microsoft programming languages and SDKs), as well as gaming software, gaming hardware and peripherals.

So obviously the company that's just a search engine ought to be worth 10 times that of Microsoft - at least that's what these so-called stock market experts were trying to tell us a few weeks back. "Google will reach over $600 by the end of the year - keep buying Google".

To justify this, rumour after rumour keeps rearing up, all of which are BS, usually claiming that Google are about to develop one or more of the items on Microsoft's list of goodies. I found the one about making Google PCs especially funny.

These people are desperate to justify why they have advised the public once again to sink money into something they know nothing about.

What amazes me is after they talked a whole bunch of BS about technology stocks at the end of 90s, and helped so many people lose $1000s, they got to keep their jobs so that once again they're influencing the public to waste more money, advising them to invest in something they know nothing about - "Keep buying Google, it'll be worth over $600 per share by the end of the year"..
Posted by ajbright (447 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Reality Check
It's funny, but I think people are starting to realise they've paid over $400 for a search engine stock - nothing else, just a search engine.

While it is the most used search engine out there, and obviously Google make a stack of cash from their adwords thing, it is still just a search engine.

I don't particularly like Microsoft that much, but they do have something in common with Google. They have a search engine too - it isn't used as much, but it pretty much gives the same results. But for some reason a company that also has productivity software on 95% of corporate PCs, a paid for OS on 95% of corporate PCs, development software used by at least 75% of corporate developers (who may also use other software, but they do have Microsoft programming languages and SDKs), as well as gaming software, gaming hardware and peripherals.

So obviously the company that's just a search engine ought to be worth 10 times that of Microsoft - at least that's what these so-called stock market experts were trying to tell us a few weeks back. "Google will reach over $600 by the end of the year - keep buying Google".

To justify this, rumour after rumour keeps rearing up, all of which are BS, usually claiming that Google are about to develop one or more of the items on Microsoft's list of goodies. I found the one about making Google PCs especially funny.

These people are desperate to justify why they have advised the public once again to sink money into something they know nothing about.

What amazes me is after they talked a whole bunch of BS about technology stocks at the end of 90s, and helped so many people lose $1000s, they got to keep their jobs so that once again they're influencing the public to waste more money, advising them to invest in something they know nothing about - "Keep buying Google, it'll be worth over $600 per share by the end of the year"..
Posted by ajbright (447 comments )
Reply Link Flag
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