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Paying a price to be No. 1
October 29, 2004
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computing security all will have substantial effects on the way people interact with technologies, he said.
More visible to average computer users, the advent of high-definition screens and applications, the widespread use of powerful portable computing devices of all kinds, and changes in personal communications toward an instant messaging-like model will drive considerable change in the coming years, he predicted.
As to the writers' business itself, the technology industry is not far from developing a portable reading device that will become popular, replacing the use of paper magazines and newspapers for many people, he said. That will in itself drive a shift in advertising and other media business models.
"We have no crystal ball as to how soon that will happen, but every advance in technology is moving things in that direction," Gates said.
He also touted the upcoming unveiling of the company's next-generation Xbox video game machine scheduled for later this month, and the Longhorn operating system to be released next year.
Asked about blogging, he said he had been experimenting with keeping one, but hadn't written in it often enough to let it go live on the Internet.
The chairman said Microsoft is more sophisticated from a corporate perspective than it has been in the past. He said he regretted ever having begun issuing stock options to employees, and that today's policy of issuing stock grants instead is better.
He danced around the topic of stock valuation.
"I think any statement about stock prices is always suspect," Gates said. "I would say there's as much overvaluation as there is undervaluation."
See more CNET content tagged:
Bill Gates, China, fiber-optics, U.S., chairman
Keep America going to school, by making sure those that do have a good job waiting for them. take away that hope, and you cause the very uncertainty you complain about.
Stop working to hurt America, and help make her stronger by supporting her workforce with real jobs.
-Alex
Keep America going to school, by making sure those that do have a good job waiting for them. take away that hope, and you cause the very uncertainty you complain about.
Stop working to hurt America, and help make her stronger by supporting her workforce with real jobs.
-Alex
expanded H1B visas. But he is concerned that our domestic
educational system is not producing enough engineers? In a free
market econony, people are generally going to persue careers
that are the most rewarding. Why study to become an engineer if
its clear that the payscale for engineers is headed down?
Obviously there are a lot of factors that are driving that trend,
including the fact that inexpensive foreign labor doesn't even
have to leave home anymore -but to suggest that H1B visas
don't make the problem worse, is dishonest.
Anyone with the capacity to be an exceptional engineer, can
probably be a reasonably good doctor, lawyer, or insurance
actuary (the guy's that make sure insurance company's pay out
as little as possible -you wouldn't believe how much a good one
is paid). If your world view is about getting the best bang for the
buck spent on education, engineering is not the answer.
Bill Gates also just, quite publicly, backed down from a threat of
a religious boycott. Religous groups around the country are
actively assaulting the foundations of biology, which, will not
cause a shortage of the kinds of engineers that Microsoft
presumably wants, but nevertheless sends the message that
Microsoft is not as committed to science, technology and
engineering as they profess to be.
It is clear that Bill Gates does not really care about engineering.
He cares about profit. And that's fine. Really that's the way it
should be. He should just stop pretending that's all.
Actually if he was as smart as he claims to be, he should just get
on the tax-code gravy train. "Your new private account can only
be accessed with Windows 2006 -please upgrade your system"
expanded H1B visas. But he is concerned that our domestic
educational system is not producing enough engineers? In a free
market econony, people are generally going to persue careers
that are the most rewarding. Why study to become an engineer if
its clear that the payscale for engineers is headed down?
Obviously there are a lot of factors that are driving that trend,
including the fact that inexpensive foreign labor doesn't even
have to leave home anymore -but to suggest that H1B visas
don't make the problem worse, is dishonest.
Anyone with the capacity to be an exceptional engineer, can
probably be a reasonably good doctor, lawyer, or insurance
actuary (the guy's that make sure insurance company's pay out
as little as possible -you wouldn't believe how much a good one
is paid). If your world view is about getting the best bang for the
buck spent on education, engineering is not the answer.
Bill Gates also just, quite publicly, backed down from a threat of
a religious boycott. Religous groups around the country are
actively assaulting the foundations of biology, which, will not
cause a shortage of the kinds of engineers that Microsoft
presumably wants, but nevertheless sends the message that
Microsoft is not as committed to science, technology and
engineering as they profess to be.
It is clear that Bill Gates does not really care about engineering.
He cares about profit. And that's fine. Really that's the way it
should be. He should just stop pretending that's all.
Actually if he was as smart as he claims to be, he should just get
on the tax-code gravy train. "Your new private account can only
be accessed with Windows 2006 -please upgrade your system"
Kids aren't so dumb Bill, they can see a con game
from a mile away. And no matter how much press you kick up, or senators you buy, it isn't going to change their little minds. If the industry wants the children of this country to invest in a engineering education they better start figuring out how to *earn* their respect and trust once more.
Since the dot com implosion American high tech
companies have done nothing to reassure it's faith in the American workforce. Quite the opposite. Companies like Micro$oft, Intel, Cisco,
and other "leaders" have turned their backs on this country in the name of "globalization" and the Wall Street holy quest all mighty dollar.
True American companies don't run for foriegn refuge, they stand their ground and fight for the country and her people that made their success possible. There are many of them.
These selfish actions are nothing more than a modern form of treason in the eyes of the American worker. So why would anyone child go to all the hard work to be an EE/CS major only to
be eventually sold out at by the companies that urged them on in the first place?
Have the guts to just admit you want cheap labor
Bill, and then relocate yourself and your company
someplace else, how about Bejing? just think of the size of the palace you could build there for yourself!
America has no room for back-stabbing corporate traitors like yourself and the rest of you CEO buddies. Do us all a favor and go ruin someone elses country for a change! It's the least you
can do for the country that made you so stinking rich in the first place.
I wonder why people like him fail to understand or willfully ignore that in US, we worship capitalism, The goal or capitalism is not take care of its constituents but rather care for the capital and its growth. What all these companies are doing by outsourcing work (not american jobs) is protecting the capital invested in them by their shareholders, who demand the highest return on their investment. They also expect their capital to e protected and the way current economics circustances are a company cannot be competetive by hiring American workers especially since they cost 4 times as much as a person from India or China, and secondly they do not produce 4 times as much as their counterparts in India and China. So why would anyone expect corporations to do anything differently, if they do you the author is suggesting, they are risking the capital invested in them and loosing an opportunity to yeild higher return for their stakeholders.
Please my fellow americans you must understand, we cannot be on both side of the arugment as and when it suits us, meaning worship capitalism when its suits us and become communist when it hurts us. Wish you good luck, the only way you can better yourself is by preparing to produce wealth in proportionate amount to your paycheck.
Kids aren't so dumb Bill, they can see a con game
from a mile away. And no matter how much press you kick up, or senators you buy, it isn't going to change their little minds. If the industry wants the children of this country to invest in a engineering education they better start figuring out how to *earn* their respect and trust once more.
Since the dot com implosion American high tech
companies have done nothing to reassure it's faith in the American workforce. Quite the opposite. Companies like Micro$oft, Intel, Cisco,
and other "leaders" have turned their backs on this country in the name of "globalization" and the Wall Street holy quest all mighty dollar.
True American companies don't run for foriegn refuge, they stand their ground and fight for the country and her people that made their success possible. There are many of them.
These selfish actions are nothing more than a modern form of treason in the eyes of the American worker. So why would anyone child go to all the hard work to be an EE/CS major only to
be eventually sold out at by the companies that urged them on in the first place?
Have the guts to just admit you want cheap labor
Bill, and then relocate yourself and your company
someplace else, how about Bejing? just think of the size of the palace you could build there for yourself!
America has no room for back-stabbing corporate traitors like yourself and the rest of you CEO buddies. Do us all a favor and go ruin someone elses country for a change! It's the least you
can do for the country that made you so stinking rich in the first place.
I wonder why people like him fail to understand or willfully ignore that in US, we worship capitalism, The goal or capitalism is not take care of its constituents but rather care for the capital and its growth. What all these companies are doing by outsourcing work (not american jobs) is protecting the capital invested in them by their shareholders, who demand the highest return on their investment. They also expect their capital to e protected and the way current economics circustances are a company cannot be competetive by hiring American workers especially since they cost 4 times as much as a person from India or China, and secondly they do not produce 4 times as much as their counterparts in India and China. So why would anyone expect corporations to do anything differently, if they do you the author is suggesting, they are risking the capital invested in them and loosing an opportunity to yeild higher return for their stakeholders.
Please my fellow americans you must understand, we cannot be on both side of the arugment as and when it suits us, meaning worship capitalism when its suits us and become communist when it hurts us. Wish you good luck, the only way you can better yourself is by preparing to produce wealth in proportionate amount to your paycheck.
I just want to hear one CEO tell the truth, it isn't the lack of education that's hurting the US. It is the high cost of living the US that keeps engineering unemployment in the US high and that causes companies to seek overseas workers.
We're not behind China in IT tech, we are behind China in the import/export balance. China is exporting more and more blue-collar made goods to the US.
We're not behind India in Manufacturing tech, we are in an imbalance with India over the direction of IT job growth.
Reason why? Well it's not because of our IT schools because India placed behind US in the ACM. With India it's all about the value of the US dollar vs the Indian rupee.
With China, it's not about our IT schools as China was way ahead of the US in the ACM. Again, with China it is all about the value of their currency being tied to the value of the dollar, Chinese currency is way under valued.
The imbalance with India should correct itself. The imbalance with China will only correct itself if the socialist 1-party government of China decides it wants to lose power.
When that happens, the flow of jobs from US to these countries should reverse.
Everyone bashes the US for it non-competitiveness, we are a very competitive nation.
The real problem is that CEO are milking the myth that the US is behind other countries in IT, for their own greedy purposes.
I just want to hear one CEO tell the truth, it isn't the lack of education that's hurting the US. It is the high cost of living the US that keeps engineering unemployment in the US high and that causes companies to seek overseas workers.
We're not behind China in IT tech, we are behind China in the import/export balance. China is exporting more and more blue-collar made goods to the US.
We're not behind India in Manufacturing tech, we are in an imbalance with India over the direction of IT job growth.
Reason why? Well it's not because of our IT schools because India placed behind US in the ACM. With India it's all about the value of the US dollar vs the Indian rupee.
With China, it's not about our IT schools as China was way ahead of the US in the ACM. Again, with China it is all about the value of their currency being tied to the value of the dollar, Chinese currency is way under valued.
The imbalance with India should correct itself. The imbalance with China will only correct itself if the socialist 1-party government of China decides it wants to lose power.
When that happens, the flow of jobs from US to these countries should reverse.
Everyone bashes the US for it non-competitiveness, we are a very competitive nation.
The real problem is that CEO are milking the myth that the US is behind other countries in IT, for their own greedy purposes.
The gamble all this crap hinges on, is the hope that someday the Chinese and Indians, and everyone else brings their levels of consumption up. If they don't, and if the US consumer someday can't or won't borrow to buy anymore, this all becomes a craptastic house of cards.
The gamble all this crap hinges on, is the hope that someday the Chinese and Indians, and everyone else brings their levels of consumption up. If they don't, and if the US consumer someday can't or won't borrow to buy anymore, this all becomes a craptastic house of cards.
The last time that we were in this part of the cycle was when the railroads were being built out and the Carnegies, JP Morgans, and (oh hell, what's his name? The big Standard Oil Baron). Yes. Yes we are. Back then, the CxOs or corporation got generations of wealth. The current crop of CxOs are making generations of wealth in single years.
What changed back then? A strong and independent president and a strong and independent congress put laws into place that broke up the monopolies for the good of the consumer. Managed capitalism. The tempering of the greed and corruption that drives capitalism in exchange for opportunities for all, including the working stiff.
What have we been seeing the last years? Massive consolidation and mergers creation monopolies. For example, we used to have something like 6 or 8 major oil companies. What are we down to now? 3? And these are the same corporations who are limiting the refining capacity to keep the cost of their product to the consumer high, and are raking in largest profit margins than anytime in history, short of the previous monopoly cycle.
The only thing that concerns me is that previously the congress and the president were independent enough to pass the laws that need passing to break the monopolies. Now, however, I fear that its "Government of the people, by corporate executives, for corporate profits". So first we have to ban the idea that there can be professional lobbyists and special interest groups from industry that are calling the shots in Washington. Then we have to discard the idea that a corporation is a legal entity with the same rights as people, but yet none of the responsibilities or obligations.
What nobody seems to want to realize or talk about is that the US standard of living is draining over to the second and third world nations, and will continue to do so until the standards of living equal out. Such is the reality of this global economy.
By the time the standards of living balance, the typical US worker will be fighting with the illegal immigrants picking produce in the western states with the same lack of opportunities and the same hopelessness, and the same difficulties in bootstrapping yourself to something better. Who knows what displaced American's reactions are going to be when they finally come to this realization.
While at the same time the robber baron board members will still go around blowing million dollar bonuses up each others behinds and signing each other on as CxOs at financially irresponsible employment contracts, making generations of wealth for mere years of work.
The more I come to realize this reality, the more I think that NAFTA and the soon to be passed (or as it already been passed) Central American NAFTA is a means for those in control to continue to exploit the proletariat, but this time, with the global economy, in greater numbers and across national boundaries for ever increasing payoffs to themselves.
By using immigration, trade and fiscal policies to lower labor costs and concentrate wealth in their hands, America's parasitic elites are committing economic and political suicide-just as the antebellum planters blindly expanded slavery even when it had become obvious that slavery was an extraordinarily bad idea (Randall Burns in The Jobs Crunch: A Progressive Indictment Of Immigration-And Both Parties)
Now think of the enormously overpriced costs of american college tuition (which never stabilizes, but only goes up, by the way). Why would anyone want to invest astronomical sums of money, not to mention countless hours of study and research, to earn less than what a McDonalds manager makes?
I'm not blaming education costs completely, but if we want to compete globally, our college costs are going to have to come down, closer to what it is costing international students to obtain their education. Otherwise, as others have observed, why spend the money on an education that won't give you the rewards? Any job openings at McDonalds?
The last time that we were in this part of the cycle was when the railroads were being built out and the Carnegies, JP Morgans, and (oh hell, what's his name? The big Standard Oil Baron). Yes. Yes we are. Back then, the CxOs or corporation got generations of wealth. The current crop of CxOs are making generations of wealth in single years.
What changed back then? A strong and independent president and a strong and independent congress put laws into place that broke up the monopolies for the good of the consumer. Managed capitalism. The tempering of the greed and corruption that drives capitalism in exchange for opportunities for all, including the working stiff.
What have we been seeing the last years? Massive consolidation and mergers creation monopolies. For example, we used to have something like 6 or 8 major oil companies. What are we down to now? 3? And these are the same corporations who are limiting the refining capacity to keep the cost of their product to the consumer high, and are raking in largest profit margins than anytime in history, short of the previous monopoly cycle.
The only thing that concerns me is that previously the congress and the president were independent enough to pass the laws that need passing to break the monopolies. Now, however, I fear that its "Government of the people, by corporate executives, for corporate profits". So first we have to ban the idea that there can be professional lobbyists and special interest groups from industry that are calling the shots in Washington. Then we have to discard the idea that a corporation is a legal entity with the same rights as people, but yet none of the responsibilities or obligations.
What nobody seems to want to realize or talk about is that the US standard of living is draining over to the second and third world nations, and will continue to do so until the standards of living equal out. Such is the reality of this global economy.
By the time the standards of living balance, the typical US worker will be fighting with the illegal immigrants picking produce in the western states with the same lack of opportunities and the same hopelessness, and the same difficulties in bootstrapping yourself to something better. Who knows what displaced American's reactions are going to be when they finally come to this realization.
While at the same time the robber baron board members will still go around blowing million dollar bonuses up each others behinds and signing each other on as CxOs at financially irresponsible employment contracts, making generations of wealth for mere years of work.
The more I come to realize this reality, the more I think that NAFTA and the soon to be passed (or as it already been passed) Central American NAFTA is a means for those in control to continue to exploit the proletariat, but this time, with the global economy, in greater numbers and across national boundaries for ever increasing payoffs to themselves.
By using immigration, trade and fiscal policies to lower labor costs and concentrate wealth in their hands, America's parasitic elites are committing economic and political suicide-just as the antebellum planters blindly expanded slavery even when it had become obvious that slavery was an extraordinarily bad idea (Randall Burns in The Jobs Crunch: A Progressive Indictment Of Immigration-And Both Parties)
Now think of the enormously overpriced costs of american college tuition (which never stabilizes, but only goes up, by the way). Why would anyone want to invest astronomical sums of money, not to mention countless hours of study and research, to earn less than what a McDonalds manager makes?
I'm not blaming education costs completely, but if we want to compete globally, our college costs are going to have to come down, closer to what it is costing international students to obtain their education. Otherwise, as others have observed, why spend the money on an education that won't give you the rewards? Any job openings at McDonalds?
I remember about a year ago the concern was supposedly because the US would retain R&D and innovate new products. Well somewhere in the interval all pretense of that was dropped as everyone scrambled to open R&D centers all over bungolia.
So why the complaining now that there are too few engineers?
I remember about a year ago the concern was supposedly because the US would retain R&D and innovate new products. Well somewhere in the interval all pretense of that was dropped as everyone scrambled to open R&D centers all over bungolia.
So why the complaining now that there are too few engineers?
And some of us need to lose the "entitlement" mentality! (It didn't work for the Soviets, and it won't work for us.) We're all in the "capitalist" jungle...the sooner you realize this, the better...and I suggest you play to win!
-JDM
To top things off--that kind of international experience looks really good on a resume when/if you decide to come back.
;) JDM
(*If anyone is interested in anything other than "griping", that is.)
And some of us need to lose the "entitlement" mentality! (It didn't work for the Soviets, and it won't work for us.) We're all in the "capitalist" jungle...the sooner you realize this, the better...and I suggest you play to win!
-JDM
To top things off--that kind of international experience looks really good on a resume when/if you decide to come back.
;) JDM
(*If anyone is interested in anything other than "griping", that is.)
He is quite wrong about postsecondary education in this country though. An IEEE survey shows 50% of their members are unemployed. While people with college degrees have earned much more than high school graduates in the past, this is changing rapidly as technology changes, employment becomes more transitory, and careers shorten to a decade. As the value and life of a degree drop the cost continues to rise. We have been overinvesting in higher education for a long time. While we have greatly increased the cost and shifted significantly from grants to loans, we are continuing to overinvest in higher education.
What has gotten short shift is apprenticeship, skills, and training. Employers won't pay for it, nor will employees without some assurance of its value in future employment. As employers move to temporary, on demand, and contracting, even less investment in these is being made. Employers decry the availability of employees with the skills they need but make no effort to train them. They would rather throw out their long time employees and replace them with lower paid new grads or H1-B workers.
What is not understood is change deprecates the value of change. Product cycles become shorter. Careers turn into interludes. The value of product and education both decline. While the trends he identifies will change technology, they won't be anywhere as significant as the internet. In fact, it is unlikely they will even prove to be very profitable. A flood of similar competing technology will keep margins down. Access and content will squeeze out any value in technology. Thus fewer engineers are desireable and if they want to move to Asia, they should go ahead. They are our past, not our future.
He is quite wrong about postsecondary education in this country though. An IEEE survey shows 50% of their members are unemployed. While people with college degrees have earned much more than high school graduates in the past, this is changing rapidly as technology changes, employment becomes more transitory, and careers shorten to a decade. As the value and life of a degree drop the cost continues to rise. We have been overinvesting in higher education for a long time. While we have greatly increased the cost and shifted significantly from grants to loans, we are continuing to overinvest in higher education.
What has gotten short shift is apprenticeship, skills, and training. Employers won't pay for it, nor will employees without some assurance of its value in future employment. As employers move to temporary, on demand, and contracting, even less investment in these is being made. Employers decry the availability of employees with the skills they need but make no effort to train them. They would rather throw out their long time employees and replace them with lower paid new grads or H1-B workers.
What is not understood is change deprecates the value of change. Product cycles become shorter. Careers turn into interludes. The value of product and education both decline. While the trends he identifies will change technology, they won't be anywhere as significant as the internet. In fact, it is unlikely they will even prove to be very profitable. A flood of similar competing technology will keep margins down. Access and content will squeeze out any value in technology. Thus fewer engineers are desireable and if they want to move to Asia, they should go ahead. They are our past, not our future.
Alas, programming is gone with the wind and shall not return. It's unfortunate that there are no ready made new career lines available. Why? No one has ever done a global economy before. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, that's the way it's always been, and always will be.
;) JDM
So I'm a programmer, but I don't just write code. Anyone, anywhere can do that.
- Programmer = TV Repairman
- by gfsdfge May 3, 2005 2:15 PM PDT
- It used to be a great career. I feel like the last, best VCR maker in the country.
- Like this Reply to this comment
-
-
- Not for you
- by sanenazok May 3, 2005 9:20 PM PDT
- As a programmer you now have to offer something that an offshore guy can't offer. Maybe better design and communication skills, and willingness to learn. The market is not as lucrative as it could have been, but I've had several offers and got a good job. In fact I should be sleeping rather than typing this, but just wanted to let you know that all of my friends found jobs too. I got a BS in CS and Electrical Engineering three years ago and got a job at a pharmeceutical company doing work with their database system out of school. All of my friends had work within 8 months of graduation.
- Like this
-
- I figure we're good for 5-8 more years...
- by gfsdfge May 4, 2005 11:13 AM PDT
- I'm not complaining, just realistic. Just look at our development tools. Soon, you won't need to code for 80% of the business apps. Hence, drop another million programmers. Offshoring? Yes, it will continue. It's not going to stop no matter how much we complain. It's good business sence to do it. It's $$$ to the stock holders. So I'm not complaining, just realistic. Planning on a new career in some other field in next five years or so.
- Like this View reply
Processing -
- Thinking like that...
- by culture_of_one May 1, 2008 1:58 PM PDT
- WON'T get you anywhere. You're capable of much more than you realize.
- Like this
-
Showing 1 of 2 pages (66 Comments)Alas, programming is gone with the wind and shall not return. It's unfortunate that there are no ready made new career lines available. Why? No one has ever done a global economy before. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer, that's the way it's always been, and always will be.
So I'm a programmer, but I don't just write code. Anyone, anywhere can do that.
;) JDM