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January 6, 2008 6:31 PM PST

Gates: Curtain call for crystal ball

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Microsoft also noted the company's progress in IPTV--digital television delivered over Internet Protocol as opposed to traditional cable or satellite.

Microsoft now has about 1 million set-top boxes in commercial use with its Mediaroom software, and its partners add two subscribers every minute, according to the company. AT&T, the largest U.S. customer, plans to have 1 million users itself by the end of the year.

Click here to Play

Video: Gates' keynote at CES
Microsoft's chairman discusses the outgoing and incoming digital decades.

Bach showed a number of custom applications designed for its Mediaroom IPTV service, including one developed by TNT for covering live Nascar events.

"I can pick car No. 35, or I can go into the pits and watch car No. 22," Bach said.

Bach said the company is serious about the TV effort.

"It's not a 'hobby' for Microsoft," he said, a jab at the fact that Apple CEO Steve Jobs once called Apple TV a "hobby."

On the Olympics front, Microsoft and NBC are teaming up on a site that will host more than 3,000 hours of live and on-demand video of Olympic events. It will be ad-supported, with the two companies divvying up the revenue.

It's not the first time Microsoft and the General Electric division have partnered to cover the Olympics--they also did so for the Winter Games in Salt Lake City in 2002.

Gates said the ability to watch the events you want, either live or on-demand, is why Internet-based TV is so much better than standard fare.

"Events like this in the broadcast format just aren't as satisfying, as great as we'll make the Olympics," Gates said.

Microsoft also announced deals to offer movies from MGM and TV shows from Disney for download via the Xbox 360. The Disney deal will bring to the Xbox more than 500 hours of programming in both standard and high-definition formats, including shows such as Desperate Housewives, Lost, and Grey's Anatomy, plus Disney shows such as Hannah Montana.

On the music front, Microsoft isn't giving exact sales figures for the Zune, but it is noting that there are now 1.5 million active users in Zune Social, the social-networking site that ties into the music service and player.

Microsoft is also committing to offer the Zune in Canada by the spring. The product had originally been expected to expand into other countries sooner, but Microsoft has thus far kept its focus on the U.S. market.

In automotive news, Gates will tout the fact that Ford Motor has sold 30,000 cars equipped with the Sync in-car entertainment system that Microsoft co-developed with the carmaker. Ford expects to sell 1 million Sync-enabled cars by 2009.

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Waiting for MacWorld Expo
by coryschulz January 6, 2008 8:38 PM PST
This is all pretty boring. I'm waiting for MacWorld. That'll show off some truely innovative products.
Reply to this comment
Thanks?
by krushyou January 6, 2008 8:58 PM PST
You should wipe your mouth off you have something hanging on the end of it...

Why comment if you truly have nothing to say other then "Apple is teh awesome!"

Sync looks like it could be quite cool but having it in only Ford, not so good.

MS surface is cool but i believe they talked about this at last CES. I don't know if this will ever be on the consumer side as its still quite expensive, maybe in a smaller device with less features?

Zune has proven its not dead yet and more and more people are getting into it and there's actually advertising for it now as well.

There was a recent firmware update that supposed to fix performance and battery issues for Zune 1 and 2.

Vista, ah yes people love to bash this OS over and over, truly there was a lot of mistakes on this but sp1 has shown its not too late to fix some of them. Sure you can use third party programs to do a lot of the things in vista but everyone I have tried (all freeware) dog my pc down to a crawl. Whereas having vista installed there isnt any slowdown with all the extra goodies. Also with a fast enough pc, Vista runs like a dream but then again if the next version of Windows relies on faster equipment to escape buggy code, They will lose even more support and may finally cause someone else to push ahead to make a difference, We'll see.

It'll be interesting to see without Gates what MS will become.
View reply
MacWorld v. CES
by KTLA_knew January 6, 2008 10:08 PM PST
It's like you're waiting for a get together of juice and cookies with your friends after school, versus the new year's celebration in Times Square.

Even if 95% of CES is crap and MacWorld rocks, there's STILL more cool stuff at CES.

Lay off the Kool-Aid a bit, with the brown off the lips, whatever metaphor you prefer...
Mac fanboy's attempt at dismissal of anything MS...yawn
by jamie.p.walsh January 7, 2008 8:22 AM PST
end of message
by retrosteve February 20, 2009 6:37 PM PST
While everyone complains that this was an obvious Mac fanboi comment (which it was), I was silently agreeing with it. I have no particular animosity towards Gates or Windows, but this genuinely was boring stuff, and I genuinely usually do see more interesting launches at MacWorld. If that makes me a fanboi too, well, so be it.
NBC Olympic coverage sucks
by Que.Ball January 6, 2008 10:07 PM PST
Maybe a bit off topic but the quote:
"Events like this in the broadcast format just aren't as satisfying, as great as we'll make the Olympics," Gates said.

Only illustrates how poor the coverage is by NBC. They fill their broadcast with so much marketing that the event is an afterthought. They don't cover many events live and so they wait for results and only show events where a US athlete wins and ignore the rest.

The worst coverage by NBC comes when the event is held in a timezone which makes live viewing harder. They don't even bother to try showing it live. If you are a fan of the Olympics and are willing to stay up and watch an event at 2am you better have access to some foreign broadcasters because on NBC you will likely be seeing a late night infomercial.

So with coverage like that it's no wonder Gates would say that the broadcast format isn't satisfying. If you want to watch a sport that isn't being covered by NBC or listen to the silly reporters talk then the online video is your next best option.

If you want to stay up until 4am watching live sports then you better find yourself a way of getting Canadian CBC broadcasts or Australias seven, or British BBC, or China Central TV, etc.
Reply to this comment
NBC & Silverlight
by jltnol January 7, 2008 8:08 AM PST
Gates shilled for Silverlight, Microsoft's "Flash killer," and
announced that NBC

this would be the SAME NBC who years ago adopted the MII 1/2"
video tape format, based on VHS, as opposed to Sony's Beta
format based on Betamax. I doubt you can even find a working
MII machine at NBC anymore, but I can promise you there are
still hundreds of broadcast beta machines there now.

NBC doesn't really doesn't have a good track record with cutting
edge tech. No doubt MS has paid them millions to use this for
the Olympics.
View all 2 replies
Crystal Ball
by maccam--2008 January 7, 2008 2:09 AM PST
Has Gates proved prescient about anything? Anybody out there
keeping track of his predictions? ...and the Xbox is still bleeding
money, this is a success?
Reply to this comment
Sorry it is profitable
by wolivere January 7, 2008 4:32 AM PST
You may have missed the new's but the XBOX turned profitable already.
View reply
Yeh, your right
by suyts January 7, 2008 5:58 PM PST
MS loses money on their predictions so much that they posted "net profit was $3.04 billion, or 31 cents per diluted share, in its fiscal fourth quarter, up from $2.83 billion, or 28 cents per diluted share, a year earlier. Sales rose 13 percent to $13.4 billion." or for those that can't interpret, that is over $1 billion a month PROFIT!! Yeh, Bill don't know squat. lol
Gates head is very deep in the sand....
by Ted Miller January 7, 2008 5:02 AM PST
and he does not want to get it out. He sold a lot of Vista, that I can agree with. What is not said is that all those Vista sales where FORCED on the unsuspecting public. Hey Bill: would you like to bet my paycheck against yours that if you arranged with the stores to sell an XP computers side by side with a Vista computer that XP sales would blow Vista right out of the market? Never mind, you already knew that. Thats why you pulled XP right out of the market leaving the consumer holding a computer that they have become very unhappy with. Trust me please, for I hear the complaints every stinking day to the point I am gettig tired of it. I guess thats what you do Bill, rip off the people of the world and run.

Thanks... for nothing!
Reply to this comment
Vista VS.
by as901 January 7, 2008 5:43 AM PST
XP is simply NT with a bit of new paint. Microsoft did start selling XP again, but only after so many Vista Machines were brought back to the store that Most manufacturer began selling Linux machines. This scared Microsoft into putting XP machines back on the market! Gates feared that once people saw how stable Linux was, they might never go back to Windows!
View all 3 replies
I'm sure Bill Gates
by sanenazok January 7, 2008 7:25 AM PST
I'm sure Bill Gates could care less if people buy Windows XP or Vista. They're both Microsoft products and both earn money for Microsoft. I would think that offering XP on new computers now is a boon for MSFT since people buying XP now will be upgrading to Vista when support for XP is pulled and some Vista-only project, like DirectX 11 or .net Framework 2009 becomes a necessity.

So yeah go XP go!
I had a choice
by pfletcher January 7, 2008 1:46 PM PST
XP or Vista - went with Vista - never looked back
Dell's coming full Ubuntu rollout
by ethana2 January 7, 2008 3:42 PM PST
should make things interesting ;)
~ I dual boot XP and Gutsy, and Gutsy beats the living ...stuff.. out of XP.. I've also used Vista. Same deal. Compiz is awesome. OSX? AWN and the OSX theme. iLife? We're working on it. Hardware compatibility? Better every day. Better than Vista, hands down. App availability? Every open source app, WINE may hit 1.0 this year, more native each day...

Thing only get better from here. And if Dell keeps up their plans, my next PC may just be their XT tablet with Ubuntu Hardy.
Yeh, they said that
by suyts January 7, 2008 6:10 PM PST
with Win2000 also. Now look where XP is now according to you. Vista will be there too. Forced? Don't think so. In fact, one can still buy new XP loaded PCs. There are too many choices out there. My mother wanted a new pc, she asked myself and my brother what to get. I am dual-booting Suse 10.1 and my brother has some version of Ubuntu. Mac is out there. The answer, Vista of course. Why give her a dying(WinXP) OS when she can have one that will keep on improving for years to come. Why give her one the will keep her perplexed and us busier (*.nix), when she can have something that works, and works well? Forced, I doubt it.
Gates Crytal Ball needs fixing.
by as901 January 7, 2008 5:35 AM PST
I do not understand why so many folks look to Bill Gates for advice about the future of computing. When Apple first worked on there "Graphic interface", Gates claimed DOS was better. He later copied it and called it "Windows". When the Internet started, Gates refused to get involved claiming, "The Internet is just a fad!". Later, he tried to buy Netscape, and when they refused, he tried to destroy them by giving away an almost identical browser.

Gates did not innovate. He purchased software written by others. If he could not purchase their product, he drove them out of business. The future of computers was not planned by Mr. Gates. It happened in spite of him.
Reply to this comment
It's amazing...
by a85 January 8, 2008 7:18 PM PST
then that he is the wealthiest man in the world and perhaps the most successful contemporary businessman.

Your argument is clearly flawed. Why would people buy MS products if they are inferior and merely 'copies' of other, better software? I can't find the logic in that.

Your grammar is shocking too. Also, you clearly haven't heard of Xerox PARC.
Not really
by wolivere January 9, 2008 1:13 PM PST
Windows was not a copy of the Original MAC GUI, since it was not a multi tasking/pre-emtive OS.

So for what it did at the time it was candy over a DOS like OS.

"The Internet is just a fad!" can you actually find where and when that was said? many people have tried to research that comment with no luck.

In reality the only comment that can be found from Gates at that time period was introduced as evidence in the Anti trust case.

"The Internet Tidal Wave"

If you want to read the "REAL" thing here is the link to the DOJ evidence

http://www.usdoj.gov/atr/cases/exhibits/20.pdf

Now did he strong arm the Market on Netscape he sure did. Was it non compete? Well there is a lot of non compete stuff in this world, as you may have noticed during the Black trial on how many papers pay each other non compete fee's.

Now you are correct that they often purchased software written (licensed) but show me a commerical company that does not do that.
Aw shucks, no more B.S. directly from Billyboy?
by Microsoft_Facts January 7, 2008 6:39 AM PST
If I was him I'd jump ship now too. As the US/UK/Aus markets catch up with the rest of the world and realize MS=legacy, poor quality tech, the rest of the world is leaping ahead of us with open source technologies. History will show Bill Gates and MS were the largest obstacle to tech progress, and as the free market finally lifts itself out from under the monopolistic grip MS has on tech, the next 20 years will truly see an explosion in technology advances. What you won't see is MS getting in the way any longer. As the OS and Office monopolies crumble, there will be nothing to support MS in other areas where it is insignificant.
Reply to this comment
???
by wolivere January 7, 2008 8:54 AM PST
Open source? rest of the world? Okay...

Actually I belive MS opened the world to technology for us. Why?

PRE MS, Operating systems were tied to Hardware, if you wanted an OS, it came along with the hardware that it would only run on.

We first saw a glimpse of this with the AppleII where almost anyone could buy parts slap an apple together and run the OS.

Micrsoft followed with an OS that was platform independent, and Open. Meaning any one could right anything to run on it with out paying royalties.

Apple went the opposite direction with the MAC, they mad an OS that was hardware dependent. And it virtually killed the company in the 80's.

Now when you say Free Market, do you mean "Free"? or do you mean "Open Source" or do you mean "Free Market"

Today is a free market, Microsoft did something most of the other companies could not do, and that was package and market the product.

Now if MS did not come along would we still be tied to DEC, IBM, HP and all the other boy's who charge huge licensing fee's?

MS, with Intel gave us a platform that anyone could do anything with. Would Linux even be around today? If MS had not opened the road? Would hardware be so inexpensive today with out the market weight Microsoft created? No...

So, can you tell me and point me to what other countries? as from a desktop standpoint are more advanced then the 3 you listed?

And can you fault MS for building legacy support into there OS?

I think people need to take there heads out of the sand and look at where this industry has come from.. and where it is going..
View all 2 replies
Want to sell ice to Eskimos?
by rcrusoe January 7, 2008 6:44 AM PST
Gates has been an excellent salesman, but a lousy forecaster.

Want to sell ice to Eskimos? Call Bill Gates. He's your man.

Want to know which way technology is heading? Steve Jobs track
record would indicate he is the man to listen to.
Reply to this comment
Revisionist, much?
by blsith January 7, 2008 6:44 AM PST
"When Apple first worked on there "Graphic interface", Gates claimed DOS was better. He later copied it and called it "Windows"."

DOS was better, at first. And Apple didn't innovate the GUI, it was done by Xerox and shown to both Apple and Microsoft independantly. And I believe that the Unix-based X was first on the scene, but only on high-end workstations. Windows 1.0 was around almost at the same time as the MAC, as was GEM desktop, but they both stunk compared to what's around now.

When the Internet started, Gates refused to get involved claiming, "The Internet is just a fad!". Later, he tried to buy Netscape, and when they refused, he tried to destroy them by giving away an almost identical browser."

Actually, he licensed Mosaic technology, and developed their own browser from it, much the way Netscape did. Granted, they introduced a lot of controversy into the browser market at the same time...

Microsoft's biggest win for itself was in the Office space, though. If you compare Word 2.0 to WordPerfect 5.x, you find where they really made their money. Word was LIGHTYEARS ahead of anything else on the market at the time, although it wasn't at the professional level that WP was, it made creating documents that much easier. He sold copies of Windows because of Word (and of course Solitare), and helped create the landscape that we have today.

In general they take risks, and live them out. I don't think anyone talks about Microsoft Bob in a good light, but then again most folks don't talk much about the Apple Newton much, either.
Reply to this comment
Revising the revisionist
by maccam--2008 January 7, 2008 10:32 AM PST
Not quite that simple. Word and Excel appeared on the Mac
several years before they were produced for Windows and DOS.
If one chooses to believe a few years of Mac development didn't
jump start Windows, then I suppose one can, but it seems
unlikely MS GUI development did not benefit tremendously from
writing for the Mac.

Worth reading: www.sitepoint.com/article/real-history-gui.

Apple did make many significant early contributions to the GUI
including redrawing of overlapping windows. Additionally, in
the Xerox interface icons were verbs - they were actions. Apple
used icons a nouns as well (ie, actions could be preformed on
them). The result was the desktop metaphor, which was an
Apple innovation and the reason why GEM was nearly shutdown
by Apple-GEM copied the desktop metaphor.
View reply
Word vs Wordperfect
by Dolphie1 January 7, 2008 11:16 AM PST
Good comment except for the portion about Word vs WordPerfect. WordPerfect was the best word processor out there for a few years. It was clean, logical and did not put a bunch of nonsense coding into the documents. If a mistake was made and one had to change the coding - Wordperfect had an easy to use Reveal Codes feature. Wordperfect could read Word formats (MS Word, Wordstar, etc) but MS Word could not read anything but Word. MS Word was illogical, not production friendly and was difficult to recover from mistaken formatting.
The only reason Word gained a foothold was that Microsoft excluded Wordperfect from the Windows environment. The DOS versions of many applications were fairly stable - yet the process of installation and use was cryptic. Many of us manually created menu systems that would allow people to just click a number or a self-programmed function key in the simple menu and their application would start up.
Windows was pitched as an application that would make it easier to install applications, access applications and provide drivers for various cards/peripherals. Many did not like Windows as it added more middle management to the process: Was it the application/card, was it Windows, was it the machine, was it a conflict?
Then Windows began to gain a foothold. Some jobs required updated software packages, which required upgrading to Windows as the packages no longer worked well in a straight DOS environment. Microsoft saw a market in the word processing arena - albeit a bit after the fact. They knew WordPerfect was their only true competition - so they went after WordPerfect. They excluded WordPerfect compatibility with Windows - long enough to severely cripple WordPerfect.
This is the one area Microsoft should have been taken to task for unfair competition - but was not. The majority of rest of the lawsuits are just trying to make money off the giant.
View all 2 replies
Get your facts and history right
by Ian Joyner January 7, 2008 2:45 PM PST
"DOS was better, at first. And Apple didn't innovate the GUI, it
was done by Xerox and shown to both Apple and Microsoft
independantly."

DOS was never better, just old fashioned. Xerox did the GUI, but
Xerox management did not want to do anything with it. They
showed Apple, IBM, and Tektronix... only Steve Jobs "got it".
Microsoft were not shown by Xerox. Apple took the gamble that
Xerox management would not. Microsoft didn't catch on until
they saw the Lisa and then the Mac selling.
View all 2 replies
Fear for Gates
by jack1260 January 7, 2008 10:48 AM PST
Bill Gates, the most noticed maverick in the history of the free world, has made some powerful choices that led him to incredible personal rewards and opportunities. I fear that a bullish Chinese government, soon to be in total charge of the U.N. and leading the G7-8 multi-natonal corporations, will just brush the man aside, pushing him off of his wealth, stopping press coverage concerning him, and just absorbing his value and talent with impunity, which has been a standard of political control in times past used by the Chinese.

In fact, once the Bush administration clears out of DC, the post ware baby boom will be officially retired (gone.) And for Bill Gates, he's in too deep to turn back now, even if he had the YEN to.

Fare well Bill!
Reply to this comment
No worries for Bill,
by suyts January 7, 2008 6:49 PM PST
I'm sure he'll be ok. For the rest of us...., we'll be ok too. I wish him well in his semi-retirement. You could be correct though, we should keep a wary eye on all of our supposed "friends".
re: ????
by beasem January 7, 2008 12:24 PM PST
You mean CPM or CP/M, Control Program/Monitor from Digital Reseach. Se http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Digital_Research
Reply to this comment
No Apple Spam
by ggrs34 January 7, 2008 4:40 PM PST
Where's the Apple Spam? This is Cnet isn't it? Just a quick line on apple tv. My god, finally Cnet's matured and can see the world does not revolve around 8% of the market.

Well done Bill, have a good one, lets see if Jobs will match you giving away your money. Over half a billion now isn't it. Jobs is dragging his feet.
Reply to this comment
Who's Dragging Their feet?
by Gromit801 January 8, 2008 3:33 PM PST
Bills Gates - MS and his foundation.

Steve Jobs - CEO of Apple. On the board of Disney, which owns
ABC Television, ESPN, Pixar, Miramax, Hollywood Records, Lyric
Records, Disney Radio, Parks and Resorts.

Guess who has more impact on the lives of more people? It isn't
Gates.
Thank you wolivere!
by hdubya January 8, 2008 12:53 PM PST
Your comments on this article have been quite impressive. You have aced both the Mac and Linux zealots on every conversation.

BRAVO!
Reply to this comment
LOL
by The_Decider January 8, 2008 7:04 PM PST
Spewing Microsoft lies word for word impresses you?

Show me a technically knowledgeable(no an MCSE is not a qualification and technical savvy-ness) Microsoft fan who does not rely on the ineptness of MS or gets a paycheck from them and I will show you a unicorn.

They are equally common.
View reply
Agreed
by TRScheel January 8, 2008 2:53 PM PST
Enough said
Reply to this comment
Crystal ball?
by The_Decider January 8, 2008 7:07 PM PST
Put aside the fact that MS has been nothing but a cancer on the industry, but when has Gates ever predict anything correctly.

His total cluelessness on the future of the WWW is just the tip of the iceberg.

Anyone with a little knowledge and even fewer morals could have stolen, lied, and strong armed his way to "success".
Reply to this comment
Hi
by wolivere January 9, 2008 6:40 AM PST
I hear you have an OS that you are looking to sell?

BTW I happen to have IBM as a customer who is willing to pay me a million bucks for an OS if I can supply them one.

How much do you want for your OS?

Well if you worked for me I would fire you, and most likley you violated our NDA agreement with IBM.

So is it lies? Or is it Bussiness?

How many people here drive cars from across the pond to the east?

How many people know people here who have lost jobs in the Big 3?

How many of those car companies from the east have plants here?

And yet they close there market to the US? yet we applaud them for there great success....

How many of the big name software companies are original innovators?

How many of these companies bought the rights to something else? redid it and brought it to the market?

One of the major issues in this Free Enterprise, is if you have a good idea and not much in the pocket book, you most likely will need a partner to move you forward. Even small companies dream of being bought by larger companies so there idea's and thoughts will see a greater audience.

How many of those companies had there dreams crushed when these larger players just dismantled opertions after the 1 year contract deal?

Do you like EA? They are a sucess yes? How many companies did they destroy on the March?

Its not about lies its not about moral's its about buissiness. And when you run a bussiness, your loyalty is to your shareholder or the profitabiltiy of the company to provide a paycheck to yourself and your employee's.

Your morals are not to spill your guts on the internal workings of your company to a potential buyer, or a company you are about to invest in or purchase.

Apple should be thankful MS picked up the ball when SUN dropped the buyout.

Despite all the remarks it helped keep a viable competitor in the field.
Before the storm; Gates' smartest move
by yarlq January 10, 2008 9:51 AM PST
Windows is a disaster waiting to happen.

With each iteration it bloats and bloats and comes closer to forcing MS to admit they really don't know how it works - witness the corrections to corrections that come out almost daily or their inability to hit any target date for SPs (SP3 for XP and SP1 for Vista are each years late.

But the more ominous problem is this: some huge portion of America's businesses, utilities, gov't agencies and other organizations that affect the public health, safety and welfare are dependent on Windows.

One good uber-virus and there goes our civilization: businesses can't schedule trucking (no more food), utilities lose much control over aspects of power distribution (no heat, no lights ... no computers to fix each other ...), investors can't talk to the stock market; industry crashes.

When you consider all that is riding on Windows - it's a lot more than your email files - MS should be held to a higher level of accountability than a game producer.
Unlike game software, Windows really could bring down the country.

If I were Gates, I sure as hell would take the money and run - as far as I could legally distance myself from the greatest time-waster known to mankind: MS Windoze.
Reply to this comment
VISTA
by ninalou January 13, 2008 1:17 PM PST
I really really hate Vista but then I really hated XP until after SPI, 2, etc. I think that one the SP's come out, we will live. Most people hate change (me!) but I think we'll be okay once the fixes come. What I hate is that I was forced into it because my XP crashed and I could only buy Vista. Little by little, I am getting used to it. Running it as a single user & changing the looks to XP helps. Just buy more memory.
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