May 2, 2006 12:20 PM PDT

Gartner predicts longer Vista delay

The wait for Microsoft's delayed Windows Vista could be even longer than expected, according to a research report issued this week.

In March, Microsoft announced that widespread distribution of Windows Vista would be delayed until early 2007. Now, research firm Gartner Group has reported that the operating system might not be fully available until at least the second quarter of next year.

"Microsoft's track record is clear," the firm says. "It consistently misses target dates for major operating system releases. We don't expect broad availability of Windows Vista until at least 2Q07 (second quarter of 2007), which is nine to 12 months after Beta 2."

Microsoft, however, maintains that everything is on schedule, in line with its March announcement.

"We respectfully disagree with Gartner's views around timing of the final delivery of Windows Vista," a Microsoft spokesman told CNET News. "We remain on track to deliver Windows Vista Beta 2 in the second quarter and to deliver the final product to volume-license customers in November 2006 and to other businesses and consumers in January 2007."

Gartner says it believes that as a result of modifications Microsoft made in 2004 to the modular structure of Windows, the software company will need more time for "shims," or tweaks made to reported problems. This process takes place reactively as users try out the Beta 2 release of the operating system.

The upgrade from Windows XP to Vista will be as complex as the Windows 2000 release was, Gartner says. Windows 2000 took 16 months to reach manufacturing from its Beta 2 stage. The change to Windows XP from Windows 2000 only took five months from Beta 2, but it was "a relatively minor release," according the Gartner report.

Microsoft's news that the new platform would not be ready in time for Christmas caused winces throughout the industry, which was already expecting a slight decline in growth for the holiday season.

Gartner had previously advised some companies to hold off on the upgrade until 2008, since third-party products already supply many of the security upgrades incorporated into the new Windows platform.

See more CNET content tagged:
Gartner Inc., Microsoft Windows Vista, Microsoft Windows 2000, upgrade, Microsoft Corp.

15 comments

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I knew it!
I knew it, I knew it. I called this one two months ago, that MS
would still miss the release date.... again!

Cripes, they remind me of Apple and the Copeland saga before
Steve Jobs returned.

Thank ghod I run Macs.
Posted by Gromit801 (393 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Please don't start the whole Apple Vs. MS bs again
I agree, microsoft needs to do a better job on it's release dates. I have used both Apples and IBM PCs and they both have thier plus sides. What I think is that MS needs to do less showboating and more work to complete projects. They have been hyping longhorn, now vista for the better part of 2 years now, but yet they are still only on Beta 1 and that is not even a public beta. MS needs to get off thier high horse and involve the consumers. I am a beta tester of many products as part of my job, and I have to tell you the only company that really has it together when it comes to public beta programs is IBM/Lotus with it's Domino mail platform(yes I am waiting on the inevitable MS exchange Lotus Domino rebuffs). Lotus/IBM actually use thier client base to help them work any bugs out of the systems and also take thier ideas and incorporate most of them.
Posted by lstinpa (5 comments )
Link Flag
Microsoft probably knew it too.
The name Vista means "A distant view or prospect".

I wonder if they chose it because this appears to be a product destined to remain forever on the far horizon.
Posted by rcrusoe (1305 comments )
Link Flag
Aah Copeland
Completely rewritten OS with lots of new features, new
filesystem, indexed search, new user interface, etc. It died a sad
death and a few features still rest in OS 8.5 - R.I.P. Copeland

Luckily Steve came back and saved the day with a non
compatible OS partly based on open source, in 10 years Apple
made it the best consumer OS in the world.

MS is now in the same position Apple was 10 years ago, it needs
a new incompatible OS to make a fresh start and work on it for
10 years to make it the best OS in the world. MS didn't have the
balls to do it (or it failed) and now it will pay the price. This new
incompatible OS could be Apple's osX, the upgrade for XP. If
Apple brings osX to the PC world and doesn't make a big mess
of it, Microsoft is stone dead. Stock could take a 80% hike a
company like that can't survive, Apple will rule desktop PC's
again and Bill will be sitting alone in his tech filled home. :-)
Posted by Peter Bonte (316 comments )
Link Flag
And what makes you think Gartner is right?
Gartner's predictions are rarely accurate, except when they are about the obvious (like "first gen of product X will not be as good as second gen"). And they know squat about large scale product development.
Microsoft often misses product release deadlines, but they are always clear about that, and they are the first ones to announce the delayed release dates. Since Gardner doesn't have a single bit of information that Microsoft doesn't have, and they have indeed way less information, I'd say the likelyhood they are right is low, even if it is a high probability event per se.
Posted by Hernys (744 comments )
Link Flag
I'll go out on a limb here and say...
...Vista won't slip again. M$ will strip features, curtail testing and generally hack stuff around to make the Q1 delivery target.

They announced today that SecureID won't be in Vista now. I predict a raft of similar announcements over the next 8-9 months. By the time Vista comes out, it will still be the bloated, insecure eyecandy everyone expects, it will just be missing most of the features that might make it useful.

But at least it will be 'on time.'
Posted by JFDMit (180 comments )
Reply Link Flag
The real reasson for the delay....
we're waiting to see what the next OS X update has so we can copy it and put it in Vista, while still calling it innovative.

We're also looking for just the perfect shade of blue for the next generation BSOD.

Billl Gates
Posted by billlgates (4 comments )
Reply Link Flag
hey, Hey, HEY!
Mock their copy and claim strategy all you want, but don't you dare question the decision that is of the BSOD color. Such a decision could mean the difference between calm yet irritated average joes and pissed off "kill all computers"...joes.
Posted by Tomcat Adam (272 comments )
Link Flag
BSOD Is Solved
Oh, Mr. Bill solved the BSOD problem for Vista. At boot time the BIOS displays a graphic image of the user's desktop just before the crash. That way, the user never knows that their system crashed and rebooted. This new feature is called Aero-Solve.
Posted by Stating (869 comments )
Link Flag
The real reason for the delay....
we're waiting to see what the next OS X update has so we can copy it and put it in Vista, while still calling it innovative.

We're also looking for just the perfect shade of blue for the next generation BSOD.

Billl Gates
Posted by billlgates (4 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Just rename it, again... Longtooth, Vista, Moonshot?
Reminds me of Apple's Copeland - they never got it out of the
labs:-(
Posted by technewsjunkie (1265 comments )
Reply Link Flag
The New Vista!!!
I saw the box Vista is to come in! It has the company name with VISTA on the front and all around its glossy sides are half bright pictures of all types of bandaids. On the lower right corner is a bit of duct tape. In the middle is a big patch of fiber glass. In the upper left corner is a bit of Bondo. On one corner there is stiched thread and another corner some bailing wire. The bottom is held by super glue. As matter of fact the box has so many differant types of patch jobs you could spend hours just viewing it. I am so overjoyed with anticipation as to whats going to be on the inside. Oh I just can't wait....Hope its selling cheap considering all the other high prices sucking the life out of our souls.
Posted by Ted Miller (305 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Gartner Report: UNEDITED by C|NOT
Tuesday, May 2,2006

Windows Vista could be delayed again...

A new report says that Microsoft will likely delay, yet again, the release of the much anticipated Windows Vista by another three months. Industry research firm Gartner today said that Microsoft will likely be forced to delay its Vita release because of its current development cycle, previous release cycles, code complexity and lofty feature targets. "Microsofts track record is clear; it consistently misses target dates for major operating system releases," Gartner told clients. The next major Windows overhaul will be the first since Windows XP was released nearly five years ago. The report said that Windows is too complex and feature burdened to meet the projected release target of November for corporate customers and January for consumers.
Earlier this year, Microsoft said that it would delay the consumer release of Vista again to January 2007, missing the critical holiday shopping season. Windows Vista was originally expected to ship in 2005. Gartner now expects Vista will not be widely available until the second quarter of 2007, nearly two years after the first scheduled release date.

One should never overestimate how much Microsoft will underestimate the complexity and time needed to deliver a major new client OS, Gartner analysts wrote. "Based on Microsoft's current schedule, we would expect the schedule to slip again, with broad availability not coming before 2Q07, nine to 12 months after Beta 2 ships, assuming Beta 2 is reasonably stable and feature-complete."

Gartner, however, believes that Microsoft could face even further delays if the quality of beta 2 is not up to par. "Slipping into 3Q '07 is possible, but we will have a better idea once Beta 2 ships and we can assess the quality," Gartner said.

Microsoft, however, said it was still on track, despite the report on possible further delays.

"We remain on track to deliver Windows Vista Beta 2 in the second quarter and to deliver the final product to volume license customers in November 2006 and to other businesses and consumers in January 2007, said a spokeswoman for Microsoft told Computerworld.

Microsoft's continued Windows Vista delays could help Apple as the company preps its next Mac OS X "Leopard" release later this summer 2006. Apple's next generation operating system could be released by Christmas this year, giving Apple yet another edge during the busy holiday season.
Posted by Llib Setag (951 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Which Microsoft Spokesman? We want a name.
So this supposed Microsoft spokesman disagees with the
Gartner Group's assesment of another Vista delay? This
supposed person is backing an on- time-scheduled release.

Really now..

How can we believe anything coming out of Redmond these
days. Its been five years since they've worked on the darn thing
and they still can't it to work.

And who is this Microsoft spokesman anyways? And why won't
they give their name and go on record.

Is it Allchin.. Gates?? I know its not Ballmer cause he aint doing
sh8t.

So who is it?
Posted by ServedUp (413 comments )
Reply Link Flag
 

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