Historically add-ons have never sold well in the console biz, so was the HDD for Playstation 2, so was the 32x and Sega CD for the previous Sega Console, so most likely will be the case with the xbox 360 HD drive, especially if it doesn't have a gaming aspect to it
those were gaming add-ons. You can't compare a gaming add-on to one designed primarily for movie playback, especially when the add-on will likely be cheaper than the cost of a stand-alone HD- DVD player.
I have a PS2 and the only time it is ever used for DVD playback is when my family travels. Otherwise it is regulated to game playing only.
If it's not built in then it is not worth the extra cost. Ms should have built the compatibility in. They would have gotten a true head start, but now Sony will get the jump on them again.
Ummm.... When I think of low priced, I think of a couple of hundred dollars, and that's pushing it for a top-end system. Xbox 360's are far from consumer friendly priced, and the PS3 won't be much better. My guess is that these systems are targeted more at hardcore gamers than your casual gamer. In a few years, the prices will have fallen, and perhaps the next killer console would have come out. At that time, I'll probably evaluate replacing the Xbox I just bought.
That being said, I wonder why no one has come out with a gaming console for the casual gamer? Actually, I shouldn't wonder. Hardcore gamers will spend hundreds, or sometimes thousands, of dollars on gaming gear and games. But it would seem to me that if someone can cater to the much broader casual gamer market, it would make more sense.
All that being said, the whole HD-DVD vs. Blueray is a moot point. Neither offerings are priced affordably, and the Blueray DRM is annoying at best. Whow wants to spend $30 on a movie not to be able to watch it again if their player breaks? And forget about movie rentals and previously viewed movies. Hollywood was annoying enough, now they have the tech sector drinking the DRM coolaid as well.
That makes Blueray sound a lot more like the old Divx system that competed for a while with DVD near it's popular launch. The information I have seen on DRM for both standards is that they are exactly the same system.
As for prices, I could not see the external drive arriving below $50 each and it could easily be as high as $200. If it is at the high end, it would make more sense just to buy the PS3 than the external drive for the X-Box 360.
As an Xbox 360 owner running on a 50" DLP Rear Proj. TV I can't wait to get into HD DVD's. I'm glad that MS is providing something. I'm already playing HD games... And my DVD's look great now, just imagine how they'll look in HD! (well, I don't have to imagine, I have HDTV as well and most of the HD content is amazing.) What I hear about HD DVD that's cool is the bonus features. You can copy a DRM version of the movie to your PC's Hard drive and store your DVD away. Then stream it from pc to 360 via media center! That's nice. Also being able to watch a movie and then use the built in info to see what that Actor's name is in the scene is really nice. (no more grabbing the notebook to check IMDB :)
Adding HDDVD to the 360 is a nice to have for me. Sure it wont destroy Blu-Ray sales or whatever, but it's great that I can use my current setup without adding more hardware to my AV system. (as this will share 1 set of inputs etc) No, I'm not looking forward to replacing my DVD library, but guess what... I will be doing just that much to the delight of my wife :) Hey, that's progress. BTW, Mr Talbot, the 360 does cater to the casual gamer. The 'Xbox Live Arcade' is amazing for new/non gamers. It may not make them buy a system, but it sure makes them hog the controller when they see these fun games. Cheers, Jay
"Hirai declined to say how much the new PlayStation would cost, though he said the machine would play both high-definition movies and HD games. Microsoft has not said whether the Xbox 360's HD DVD player will play more than movies."
Both consoles (will) play HD Games...HD is simply a resolution and not a media. The unknown here is if the external drive will be capable of playing game discs. Probably yes, depending on the transfer rate of the external connection.
And still it will probably be a while before we see a game require more than the 8.5 gigs on a standard double layer disc. Even most current PC games only come about halfway to that point, fully installed. The space probably won't be needed to hold game data, even with the power of these consoles, unless there is an obscene amount of textures, sound effects, and models.
My guess is shortly after the release of the external drive, Microsoft will be producing 360's with the HD DVD drives built in.
It will be difficult for Microsoft to switch to full support of HD-DVD post-release. They can't afford to support dual media within the X-Box 360 titles as this will fracture their own market share. Just look at how long it has taken PC game makers to provide DVD versions of popular titles.
Microsoft shot themselves in the foot when they didn't provide the support standard at launch. They voiced their support for HD-DVD and then dropped it in favor of getting to shelves faster. They could have waited, provided the support and had more titles out at launch while still beating Sony to the shelves.
Microsoft needed 2 things. A launch on Thanksgiving week, and several months lead shelf time on Sony. Now that they have had some time to realize their mistakes they are going to try to patch things up. Without providing a serious benefit to gamers, the external drive is going to be a hard sell.
When the real dedicated HD-DVD and Blur-ray players become available that is when true videophiles will make the choice and spend their money. The dvd market is mature now and is not like it was when the PS2 made it's debut. Microsoft made the right move by not including the HD-DVD drive and having their customers pay for something that they may never use. Sony will be eating the cost of BLU-RAY for sometime on the PS3. While the ps2 may have driven DVD sales in Japan and to a somewhat lesser extent in the states it was a poor dvd player compared to the 2nd generation models available at the time. You can bet that if a cheap off the shelf 1st generation dedicated HD/BLURAY DVD player is going to cost $1100.00 it is going to out perform any sub $500.00 part time HD/BLURAY DVD player.
Microsoft has already said that they will not be supporting games on the new drive, only movies. That could change, but they would drive a wedge in the market if they had 2 versions of the games.
Also, someone said something along the lines of not needing the extra space found in BD-ROMs, but several game developers have stated that they are limited by the DVD format's space, and the minimum of 15 GB on a BD-ROM would definitely help them, especially when they get into higher resolution texturing and cinemas for future games.
The problem is that if you bring out a cheap machine, you can only use the components that are off the shelf now. It would be very hard to create a machine that is significantly better than today's machines at a similar price point - though obviously this gets easier with every few months.
With the exception of Gameboy, all consoles work on the model of releasing at the cutting edge and bringing the cost down as component costs fall. It's well known that MS lost money on the original XBox, and that there was barely any money at all to be made in early PS2 hardware sales.
That's another part of the model - don't make money on the hardware but on recurring software sales.
The casual gamer, on the other hand, always waits for the machines to hit the $150 sweet spot - by that time there's also a good variety of games out, including some cheaper old ones. There's little more boring than having a PSP at the moment.
HD-DVD on 360 when MS makes Windows open source...
The article posted that MS Xbox 360 plays HD-DVDs. TOTAL... BULL... CRAP... MS cheaped out on the 360 and used regular current generation DVDs so they could get the drop on Sony's PS3 - because of this, the 360 will now and forever be inferior (it is anyway, just more so now...) - at least the Blu-Ray to be included in PS3 and standalone movie players will be backwards compatible - able to read CDs, DVD, and obviously - BD (Blu-ray Disc).
They should have planned ahead like Sony did years ago. The Playstation 3 was planned to have Blu-Ray support nearly from the beginning. Microsoft rushed the X-Box 360 out using the latest tech they could get their hands on quickly and cheaply enough. This meant cutting out support for the higher capacity discs.
While it can be cheaper to get a HD-DVD extension to an X-Box 360 than a stand alone player, there will be fewer customers for this unit than for Playstation 3 systems that come with support for the other standard. It is also possible for another company to make external USB attachable Blu-Ray drives that would work with the X-Box 360.
With so many component makers supporting Blu-ray it is likely someone will have a USB option for it out very competitively priced. Not only for X-Box 360 users but for laptops, home PCs, media centers, and other set-top devices. My home cable box has multiple USB ports on it, they are becoming very common. I think even the next Nintendo system will support USB.
As the article stated, Sony announced long ago that the PS3 would come with a Blu-ray player. Microsoft also announced well before the XBox 360 launch that the system would only have a built-in DVD player. Didn't the "format war" end before the first stand-alone player arrived?
How much incentive do consumers have to buy stand-alone (expensive) HD players? Not much. Besides the cost, many people are happy with the quality of DVD, and don't look forward to replacing their DVD collections with HD versions.
Home much incentive do consumers have to buy Blu-ray equipped PlayStation 3s? Lots. The same goes for the XBox 360 with no HD player. Millions of both will sell, so Blu-ray wins by default.
Sony has suckered all these partners into supporting Blue-Ray. But how are they going to make their partners money? Oh yeah, studios don't care, they'll sell movies on any format. But how are their hardware partners to make money?
If they can bring the PS3 to the market by summer (Spring - yeah right, Microsoft debut a playable 360 a full 6 months before their launch, and Sony is still showing Mock-ups and wants to launch before June 21?) under, let's just say $700, then why would anyone want to buy a Blu-Ray player? If my PS3 can do the same thing...and more, why buy a Samsung player? I don't even like Play-Station, but if Blu-Ray was to win the format war, then I'd rather buy that, even if it's just to play movies.
Does anyone expect Sony to loose any less then $500 a box on this? Some put it at closer to $1000 a box. So they take a loss, just to get the format in the home, but none of their partners can expect to make any money other then on early adopters.
Sony is taking a stand that makes about as much sense as Nintendo building LaserDisc support in every Super Nintendo.
People are missing the point when it comes to the console wars. Sony needs to destroy Microsoft's 360 just to survive. People, Sony is in real financial trouble. (and not just since the DRM problem). Apple, Samsung, and quite a few other audio and tech companies have decimated their dominance in the consumer media world. They've been barely in the black because of the PS2. They needed the same kind of dominance with the PS3 over the 360. Microsoft doesn't need to destroy sony in the console market. They still do very well on computers. They can afford to eat away at sony in the same way that sony was the money leader when they made the PS1.
I hope sony SURVIVES because I am an avid gamer and believe that competition makes for better games/systems. In my humble opinion (and yes I did spell it out) Sony made a mistake by being 2nd. If Microsoft can sell the 5 million systems they think they can before Sony sells 1 - it's gonna go bad this year thru christmas. Does anyone really expect the playstation 3 to look THAT much better than the 360? Come on it takes years to create movies like Episode 3. We still don't have the tech to render at that resolution on the fly. (Yeah I'm rambling - so stop reading now - lol)
My point is that we all better hope sony wins the Blu-ray war, because it may be all they have left.
Don't you guys see? Microsoft doesn't care who wins. Do you think that Microsoft won't jump on the Blu-Ray bandwagon if it starts to win? If Blu-Ray takes off, we'll have a Blu-Ray add on for the 360 by CES 2007. But what if Blu-Ray doesn't win? What will Sony do then? And we already know that movie playback isn't really that important to most gamers anyway. If I can buy an add-on for my 360 to play HD-DVD's without having to buy another player, then I'm all for it.
We already know that Blu-Ray will cost more to produce then HD-DVD. It cost more for studios to switch over and start producing Blu-Ray disc then it does to produce HD-DVD disc. That's a fact, not speculation. By backing HD-DVD, Microsoft can use the fact that, oh I don't know, they control the PC market, to push HD-DVD. So they can get the early start and hurt Sony. But in the long-run, Microsoft will back whichever format wins the war.
Microsoft doesn't expect to beat Sony this round of game consoles. It just wants to eat into Sony's market share. Microsoft said a long time ago, that they don't really expect to give Sony a run for their money until round 3. PS4 vs Xbox 3 is where Microsoft wants to outsell Sony. Plus, Microsoft will eat a loss on every 360. But not as much of a loss that Sony will bite on every PS3. We all know the PS3 will be more the $399. The cheapest Blu-Ray player to come out this year will be over $1000, do we really expect Sony to take a $500 loss on every PS3? Do they have so much better technology, that they can produce a Blu-Ray player, plus a multi-core machine for over half the price of a machine that only play's Blu-Ray disc?
Microsoft will eat at Sony's market share, and will back whichever format wins. And the good news for us 360 owners is, we'll get to watch whichever format wins on our 360. While PS3 owners will have about a 50/50 chance in that. HD-DVD add on for PS3 at CES 2008 anybody?
regardless of the fact we're at the very beginning of a format war, hi definition dvd's won't even be mainstream for this console generation. it's even been doubted that hdtv will be mainstream during this generation. (i personally think hdtv's will really take off this year and next)
and, ask your friends. ask them if their dvd's are hi definition.
all mine have said "i thought it was." the accelerated ones recited the term "progressive scan" back to me. not only do they not know, they don't care. they are comparing it to vhs. hi definition dvd desires (much less adoption) by the mainstream are still years off.
however, microsoft's optional component is brilliant. it's just that -- optional. they don't care if it sells well. it's a bullet point on the feature list for them. they want to sell systems to sell games. (and, to be a trojan horse, but that's internet delivery driven, not optical drive driven. afterall, who cares about discs when you can just stream or download your movies from your online library.... look at the software industry moves for proof.) movie playback on a console is a loss leader. a feature bullet point. microsoft don't get license revenue from watching movies.
the only one who really cares about the hi-def movie future is sony. that's because they HAVE A MOVIE STUDIO AND MAKE MONEY ON MOVIES!
unfortunately, they've overlooked the fact that their push for blu-ray in the ps3 is going to lead to channel conflict.
excellent analysis, Christopher. couple points you didn't mention: 1) a huge proportion of folks who buy hd sets (real, really expensive, hd sets) are unaware that they're not receiving hd content for various technical and provider reasons. if they pay for it and don't even know they're not really getting it . . well, the reader should get the idea. 2) porn has led all new video delivery systems (video tape, dvd, etc). they're doing online delivery and have voiced no preference for either hd format. this, imho, is the biggest negative for both formats.
I'm surprised no one is saying what everyone already knows. Microsoft could've annonced a Blu-Ray add on drive just as easily as it annonuced a HD-DVD add on drive. But they want the market. Why? Microsoft has one goal. Get into your home on every level. Why do you think Microsoft entered the console wars? Cause Bill Gates was bored? The ultimate goal is to have everything you do, on Windows, or something that connects to windows.
Watch Bill Gates Keynote CES address, and tell me that Microsoft doesn't know what it's doing. Xbox is just one peice of the puzzel to them, it's another way to get into your home. Name one major product Microsoft has pushed out that has met with utter failure. They've had their missteps (UltimateTV or MSN TV anyone?), but that technology only comes back in another form. UltimateTV doesn't take off, how about Media Center. MSN TV doesn't take off, how about Live. Why didn't Microsoft decide to make Stoves or TVs? Why didn't they bring their marketing power to Movies and Music and start making content? Why didn't they make a cell phone, or a MP3 Player. Why a videogame console. Why take a deliberate loss? They knew they were going to lose money on the Xbox, why go forward with it. Because, they knew the DOJ wouldn't let them get anywhere near making a computer, so whats the next best thing, an up-in-coming market. Microsoft makes computers, it's called the Xbox.
Windows now controls 97.46 percent of the global desktop operating system market, and they want your TV, they want your telephone (Why doesn't Palm make their own OS anymore, curious). Microsoft doesn't want these little buisnesses to go away. (<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://wired-vig.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/start.html?pg=2" target="_newWindow">http://wired-vig.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/start.html?pg=2</a>) Their goal is to get another connector to Windows in your home and take more market share.
They don't want 100% of the market, they want 99.9% of it, and that's why they backed HD-DVD. It's no small thing that Blu-Ray just happens to be backed by Sony and Apple. Microsoft doesn't really care about the video game market, they want the whole pie, not just a peice. To find out how much a company cares about a certain product, just ask yourself, how likely would that company produce just that one product if they had to give up everything else?
Microsoft would drop Xbox in a hot minute if it didn't belive that it fit inline with it's overall goal. Microsoft doesn't need Xbox 360 to make one singe red cent, it just needs to sell millions of them, and have you connect to Windows.
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD - Microsoft doens't care who wins. If one person switches over to Microsoft because it backs HD-DVD, then it's won. Of course, the same goes for Sony, but in Microsoft's case, even though they've come out early as HD-DVD backers, they stand poised to back either format at any given time. Genius at work!!!
Pricing? An important factor that everyone seems to forget...
When looking at the specs of the Premium Xbox 360 (Triple Core processor running at 3.2ghz per core, 512 mb of DDR3 ram, 20gb removable harddrive, live headset, media remote, wireless controller, etc) which is retailing at $399 (which from what I've read is on the upper limit of what the average consumer will spend) I find it hard to believe Sony will be able offer the PS3 (which the claim will be a lot more powerful than the Xbox 360) which is promised to include a Blu-ray player.
With new HD-DVD players set at a $500 price tag and Blu-ray players at $1800, one could easily derive that the Blu-ray player could be 3 times as expensive. Now, since the HD-DVD players are manufactured from factories that are slightly modified from the original DVD format, it is easy to see that the HD-DVD players (including the Xbox 360 add-on) will be a lot more inexpensive than Blu-ray. Also, one would think that the HD-DVD add-on will most likely retail at somewhere between $100-200 (probably closer to $125 or $150) then we can reasonably assume that the interal Blu-ray player will most likely add $300-600 to the cost of the PS3. Therefore, adding that cost to the cost of the PS3's "superior" hardware, we can expect a PS3 pricetag of somewhere between $800-$1000 ($300-600 addition for the Blu-ray player on top of $500 for the PS3 since it will have "superior" hardware).
If you take a lot at Sony's financials, they had a negative net income lately coupled with only a little over 2 billion in cash. Looking at Microsoft's financials, you'll see year to year profitablity as well as a vast sum of over 40 billion in its reserves.
Taking all of this information into account I find it highly unlikely that Sony will be able to subsidize the PS3 below a $800 pricetag, let alone $600 which I think would be more reasonable in the eyes of the consumer. Even if Sony were to pull off a miracle and get the PS3 to retail at $600, that is still most likely more costly than the Xbox 360 as well as the HD-DVD add-on (it's nearly impossible for the PS3 to compete with the cost of a Core Xbox 360 + a HD-DVD add-on if one were merely interested in the Xbox 360 for HD-DVD playback as well as a little gaming). Not only will Sony not be able to offer the hardware at a reasonable level to consumers, how much do you think the media will run? $40-$50 for a Blu-ray movie compared to $15-20 for a DVD, perhaps $25-30 for an HD-DVD?
Overall, the way that things are going right now I feel that Blu-ray will fail in it's adoption by gamers mostly due to its high anticipated costs.
Don't be ridiculous. As though Tokyo and the keiretsu composed of suppliers and banks will allow an iconic Japanese company to collapse. They'll have trouble, but Sony ain't going under.
Web giant is spending $120 million to beef up its Mountain View, Calif., headquarters, according to filings with the city reviewed by the San Jose Mercury News.
The Samsung Galaxy mini 2 S6500 could make its debut at the Mobile World Congress in Barcelona later this month, according to a leaked promotional image.
Tor's "obfsproxy" technology would make encrypted data look innocuous and let it dodge government censors. That could help citizens in Iran reach blocked sites as antigovernment protests reportedly loom.
MIT creates a simulation to celebrate the 50th anniversary of Spacewar. A relic of the early days of minicomputers, it was one of the first computer video games and set the stage for many others, including Asteroids.
to one designed primarily for movie playback, especially when the
add-on will likely be cheaper than the cost of a stand-alone HD-
DVD player.
If it's not built in then it is not worth the extra cost. Ms should have built the compatibility in. They would have gotten a true head start, but now Sony will get the jump on them again.
That being said, I wonder why no one has come out with a gaming console for the casual gamer? Actually, I shouldn't wonder. Hardcore gamers will spend hundreds, or sometimes thousands, of dollars on gaming gear and games. But it would seem to me that if someone can cater to the much broader casual gamer market, it would make more sense.
All that being said, the whole HD-DVD vs. Blueray is a moot point. Neither offerings are priced affordably, and the Blueray DRM is annoying at best. Whow wants to spend $30 on a movie not to be able to watch it again if their player breaks? And forget about movie rentals and previously viewed movies. Hollywood was annoying enough, now they have the tech sector drinking the DRM coolaid as well.
As for prices, I could not see the external drive arriving below $50 each and it could easily be as high as $200. If it is at the high end, it would make more sense just to buy the PS3 than the external drive for the X-Box 360.
What I hear about HD DVD that's cool is the bonus features. You can copy a DRM version of the movie to your PC's Hard drive and store your DVD away. Then stream it from pc to 360 via media center! That's nice. Also being able to watch a movie and then use the built in info to see what that Actor's name is in the scene is really nice. (no more grabbing the notebook to check IMDB :)
Adding HDDVD to the 360 is a nice to have for me. Sure it wont destroy Blu-Ray sales or whatever, but it's great that I can use my current setup without adding more hardware to my AV system. (as this will share 1 set of inputs etc)
No, I'm not looking forward to replacing my DVD library, but guess what... I will be doing just that much to the delight of my wife :) Hey, that's progress.
BTW, Mr Talbot, the 360 does cater to the casual gamer. The 'Xbox Live Arcade' is amazing for new/non gamers. It may not make them buy a system, but it sure makes them hog the controller when they see these fun games.
Cheers,
Jay
Both consoles (will) play HD Games...HD is simply a resolution and not a media. The unknown here is if the external drive will be capable of playing game discs. Probably yes, depending on the transfer rate of the external connection.
And still it will probably be a while before we see a game require more than the 8.5 gigs on a standard double layer disc. Even most current PC games only come about halfway to that point, fully installed. The space probably won't be needed to hold game data, even with the power of these consoles, unless there is an obscene amount of textures, sound effects, and models.
My guess is shortly after the release of the external drive, Microsoft will be producing 360's with the HD DVD drives built in.
Microsoft shot themselves in the foot when they didn't provide the support standard at launch. They voiced their support for HD-DVD and then dropped it in favor of getting to shelves faster. They could have waited, provided the support and had more titles out at launch while still beating Sony to the shelves.
Microsoft needed 2 things. A launch on Thanksgiving week, and several months lead shelf time on Sony. Now that they have had some time to realize their mistakes they are going to try to patch things up. Without providing a serious benefit to gamers, the external drive is going to be a hard sell.
Also, someone said something along the lines of not needing the extra space found in BD-ROMs, but several game developers have stated that they are limited by the DVD format's space, and the minimum of 15 GB on a BD-ROM would definitely help them, especially when they get into higher resolution texturing and cinemas for future games.
only use the components that are off the shelf now. It would be
very hard to create a machine that is significantly better than
today's machines at a similar price point - though obviously this
gets easier with every few months.
With the exception of Gameboy, all consoles work on the model
of releasing at the cutting edge and bringing the cost down as
component costs fall. It's well known that MS lost money on the
original XBox, and that there was barely any money at all to be
made in early PS2 hardware sales.
That's another part of the model - don't make money on the
hardware but on recurring software sales.
The casual gamer, on the other hand, always waits for the
machines to hit the $150 sweet spot - by that time there's also a
good variety of games out, including some cheaper old ones.
There's little more boring than having a PSP at the moment.
While it can be cheaper to get a HD-DVD extension to an X-Box 360 than a stand alone player, there will be fewer customers for this unit than for Playstation 3 systems that come with support for the other standard. It is also possible for another company to make external USB attachable Blu-Ray drives that would work with the X-Box 360.
With so many component makers supporting Blu-ray it is likely someone will have a USB option for it out very competitively priced. Not only for X-Box 360 users but for laptops, home PCs, media centers, and other set-top devices. My home cable box has multiple USB ports on it, they are becoming very common. I think even the next Nintendo system will support USB.
How much incentive do consumers have to buy stand-alone (expensive) HD players? Not much. Besides the cost, many people are happy with the quality of DVD, and don't look forward to replacing their DVD collections with HD versions.
Home much incentive do consumers have to buy Blu-ray equipped PlayStation 3s? Lots. The same goes for the XBox 360 with no HD player. Millions of both will sell, so Blu-ray wins by default.
because no one is going to buy a player other then the ps3.
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/" target="_newWindow">http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/</a>
m3mnoch.
If they can bring the PS3 to the market by summer (Spring - yeah right, Microsoft debut a playable 360 a full 6 months before their launch, and Sony is still showing Mock-ups and wants to launch before June 21?) under, let's just say $700, then why would anyone want to buy a Blu-Ray player? If my PS3 can do the same thing...and more, why buy a Samsung player? I don't even like Play-Station, but if Blu-Ray was to win the format war, then I'd rather buy that, even if it's just to play movies.
Does anyone expect Sony to loose any less then $500 a box on this? Some put it at closer to $1000 a box. So they take a loss, just to get the format in the home, but none of their partners can expect to make any money other then on early adopters.
Sony is taking a stand that makes about as much sense as Nintendo building LaserDisc support in every Super Nintendo.
I hope sony SURVIVES because I am an avid gamer and believe that competition makes for better games/systems. In my humble opinion (and yes I did spell it out) Sony made a mistake by being 2nd. If Microsoft can sell the 5 million systems they think they can before Sony sells 1 - it's gonna go bad this year thru christmas. Does anyone really expect the playstation 3 to look THAT much better than the 360? Come on it takes years to create movies like Episode 3. We still don't have the tech to render at that resolution on the fly. (Yeah I'm rambling - so stop reading now - lol)
My point is that we all better hope sony wins the Blu-ray war, because it may be all they have left.
We already know that Blu-Ray will cost more to produce then HD-DVD. It cost more for studios to switch over and start producing Blu-Ray disc then it does to produce HD-DVD disc. That's a fact, not speculation. By backing HD-DVD, Microsoft can use the fact that, oh I don't know, they control the PC market, to push HD-DVD. So they can get the early start and hurt Sony. But in the long-run, Microsoft will back whichever format wins the war.
Microsoft doesn't expect to beat Sony this round of game consoles. It just wants to eat into Sony's market share. Microsoft said a long time ago, that they don't really expect to give Sony a run for their money until round 3. PS4 vs Xbox 3 is where Microsoft wants to outsell Sony. Plus, Microsoft will eat a loss on every 360. But not as much of a loss that Sony will bite on every PS3. We all know the PS3 will be more the $399. The cheapest Blu-Ray player to come out this year will be over $1000, do we really expect Sony to take a $500 loss on every PS3? Do they have so much better technology, that they can produce a Blu-Ray player, plus a multi-core machine for over half the price of a machine that only play's Blu-Ray disc?
Microsoft will eat at Sony's market share, and will back whichever format wins. And the good news for us 360 owners is, we'll get to watch whichever format wins on our 360. While PS3 owners will have about a 50/50 chance in that. HD-DVD add on for PS3 at CES 2008 anybody?
and, ask your friends. ask them if their dvd's are hi definition.
all mine have said "i thought it was." the accelerated ones recited the term "progressive scan" back to me. not only do they not know, they don't care. they are comparing it to vhs. hi definition dvd desires (much less adoption) by the mainstream are still years off.
however, microsoft's optional component is brilliant. it's just that -- optional. they don't care if it sells well. it's a bullet point on the feature list for them. they want to sell systems to sell games. (and, to be a trojan horse, but that's internet delivery driven, not optical drive driven. afterall, who cares about discs when you can just stream or download your movies from your online library.... look at the software industry moves for proof.) movie playback on a console is a loss leader. a feature bullet point. microsoft don't get license revenue from watching movies.
the only one who really cares about the hi-def movie future is sony. that's because they HAVE A MOVIE STUDIO AND MAKE MONEY ON MOVIES!
unfortunately, they've overlooked the fact that their push for blu-ray in the ps3 is going to lead to channel conflict.
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/" target="_newWindow">http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/</a>
m3mnoch.
mark d.
Watch Bill Gates Keynote CES address, and tell me that Microsoft doesn't know what it's doing. Xbox is just one peice of the puzzel to them, it's another way to get into your home. Name one major product Microsoft has pushed out that has met with utter failure. They've had their missteps (UltimateTV or MSN TV anyone?), but that technology only comes back in another form. UltimateTV doesn't take off, how about Media Center. MSN TV doesn't take off, how about Live. Why didn't Microsoft decide to make Stoves or TVs? Why didn't they bring their marketing power to Movies and Music and start making content? Why didn't they make a cell phone, or a MP3 Player. Why a videogame console. Why take a deliberate loss? They knew they were going to lose money on the Xbox, why go forward with it. Because, they knew the DOJ wouldn't let them get anywhere near making a computer, so whats the next best thing, an up-in-coming market. Microsoft makes computers, it's called the Xbox.
Windows now controls 97.46 percent of the global desktop operating system market, and they want your TV, they want your telephone (Why doesn't Palm make their own OS anymore, curious). Microsoft doesn't want these little buisnesses to go away. (<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://wired-vig.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/start.html?pg=2" target="_newWindow">http://wired-vig.wired.com/wired/archive/12.06/start.html?pg=2</a>) Their goal is to get another connector to Windows in your home and take more market share.
They don't want 100% of the market, they want 99.9% of it, and that's why they backed HD-DVD. It's no small thing that Blu-Ray just happens to be backed by Sony and Apple. Microsoft doesn't really care about the video game market, they want the whole pie, not just a peice. To find out how much a company cares about a certain product, just ask yourself, how likely would that company produce just that one product if they had to give up everything else?
Microsoft would drop Xbox in a hot minute if it didn't belive that it fit inline with it's overall goal. Microsoft doesn't need Xbox 360 to make one singe red cent, it just needs to sell millions of them, and have you connect to Windows.
Blu-Ray vs. HD-DVD - Microsoft doens't care who wins. If one person switches over to Microsoft because it backs HD-DVD, then it's won. Of course, the same goes for Sony, but in Microsoft's case, even though they've come out early as HD-DVD backers, they stand poised to back either format at any given time. Genius at work!!!
Microsoft's Unix-like OS?
With new HD-DVD players set at a $500 price tag and Blu-ray players at $1800, one could easily derive that the Blu-ray player could be 3 times as expensive. Now, since the HD-DVD players are manufactured from factories that are slightly modified from the original DVD format, it is easy to see that the HD-DVD players (including the Xbox 360 add-on) will be a lot more inexpensive than Blu-ray. Also, one would think that the HD-DVD add-on will most likely retail at somewhere between $100-200 (probably closer to $125 or $150) then we can reasonably assume that the interal Blu-ray player will most likely add $300-600 to the cost of the PS3. Therefore, adding that cost to the cost of the PS3's "superior" hardware, we can expect a PS3 pricetag of somewhere between $800-$1000 ($300-600 addition for the Blu-ray player on top of $500 for the PS3 since it will have "superior" hardware).
If you take a lot at Sony's financials, they had a negative net income lately coupled with only a little over 2 billion in cash. Looking at Microsoft's financials, you'll see year to year profitablity as well as a vast sum of over 40 billion in its reserves.
Taking all of this information into account I find it highly unlikely that Sony will be able to subsidize the PS3 below a $800 pricetag, let alone $600 which I think would be more reasonable in the eyes of the consumer. Even if Sony were to pull off a miracle and get the PS3 to retail at $600, that is still most likely more costly than the Xbox 360 as well as the HD-DVD add-on (it's nearly impossible for the PS3 to compete with the cost of a Core Xbox 360 + a HD-DVD add-on if one were merely interested in the Xbox 360 for HD-DVD playback as well as a little gaming). Not only will Sony not be able to offer the hardware at a reasonable level to consumers, how much do you think the media will run? $40-$50 for a Blu-ray movie compared to $15-20 for a DVD, perhaps $25-30 for an HD-DVD?
Overall, the way that things are going right now I feel that Blu-ray will fail in it's adoption by gamers mostly due to its high anticipated costs.
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/" target="_newWindow">http://m3mnoch.wordpress.com/2006/01/06/the-blu-ray-of-damocles/</a>
m3mnoch.