For longer than many would care to remember, the video game industry has been all but consumed with speculation about which of the three new consoles--Microsoft's Xbox 360, Sony's PlayStation 3 or Nintendo's Wii--would become top dog.
The Xbox 360 has had the run of the field, since it hit stores a year ago. But now the game is finally on. The PS3 made its debut in Japan on Saturday and it will hit North American stores Friday at 12:01 a.m. EST. Sony executives have boasted that some gamers have already started lining up to buy the new console. Two days later, at 12:01 a.m. EST Sunday, the Wii goes on sale.
So which console will come out on top? Many believe the real winners in the console wars will be consumers, as they will have more top-shelf choices than ever before. But some industry experts think Sony, despite a high price, will once again be the leader among the 150 million or so consoles analysts at DFC Intelligence predict will be sold in the next six to eight years.
"At the end of the decade, which is to say, midlife of this console generation, Sony will be first, with Nintendo battling Microsoft for second," said Richard Doherty, president of the analyst firm Envisioneering.
There's a big caveat to this prediction of Sony's continued console dominance: The top-end PS3 will cost $599, while the premium Xbox 360 runs $399. The Wii will cost $250. So Sony will have to overcome a major pricing disadvantage.
Doherty thinks it will. He bases his prediction on several factors: First, PS3 can play all old PS2 and PlayStation games, while the Xbox 360 plays many--but not all--original Xbox games.
Second, Microsoft could alienate retailers if it cannot meet demand--as he expects--for its new Xbox 360 add-on: an HD DVD player that costs $199. Microsoft said the device, which had a mid-November launch target, has already began slowly trickling into retailers and will continue to do so over the next week or so.
But after putting retailers in an awkward position last fall with Xbox shortages, Doherty said, Microsoft could really tick them off with another supply snafu.
"If there aren't enough HD DVD players," Doherty said, "it's going to be a situation of retailers saying, 'The heck with this.'" Of course, many worry Sony could run into the same supply issue with the PS3, which features a Blu-ray high-definition DVD player.
A bigger pie?
So what about Nintendo's Wii, the low-cost alternative with a considerable amount of buzz among gamers because of its motion-sensor technology?
"The (Wii) controller is just so innovative and so new and exciting in terms of what it can do for gamers in general," said Nick Earl, vice president and general manager at gamemaker Electronic Arts' Redwood Shores, Calif., studio. "I think that's going to really play in (Nintendo's) favor."
If (Nintendo) is able to expand the pie, "and we think they can, and bring new folks who are not the traditional gamer into this business, that's a fantastic thing for everybody in the industry," said Scott Steinberg, vice president of marketing at Sega. "Their strategy has been one that's more inclusive and less exclusive in potentially bringing families together to play, rather than just the older son."
Video:
Nintendo Wii rumor check
But Steinberg also recognizes that Sony's marketing machine and international reach are daunting.
"From an international standpoint, you can't deny the power of the Sony brand," he said. "On a global basis, they are the No. 1 brand."
One executive at Electronic Arts, the biggest game title producer in the world, said Sony has a strong hand.
"Despite the fact that Sony and the Wii (are) a year behind the Xbox 360, we feel that that's just going to be a rounding error in the long run. It's really year two to six where you get to volume," Earl said.
Sony's history shows it is a force that cannot be taken lightly, he added.
"Sony is a powerhouse," Earl said. "They're so strong, with great marketing and a great machine. I just don't personally feel, and EA doesn't feel, that (Microsoft's headstart) is going to be a handicap for (Sony) in the long run."
In an interview in May, Sony Computer Entertainment of America co-Chief Operating Officer Jack Tretton told CNET News.com that his company has to stick to its knitting to stay on top.
"We have to do just what we've done in the past," Tretton said, referring to Sony's domination of the video game industry since 2000 with its PlayStation and PS2 consoles. "You have to have the best system at the end of the day. You have to have the consumer's confidence, and you have to have a pureness of vision, in terms of the way you execute your strategy."
For its part, Microsoft thinks that it is in an enviable position.
"We've had a full year head start and we intend to take full advantage of it," said Peter Moore, a Microsoft corporate vice president and head of the Xbox team. "We've announced we've crested the 6 million (units shipped) mark, and we fully expect to hit our number of 10 million sold by the end of December."
Moore added that Microsoft execs believe they have another edge because, all told, there will be 160 games available for Xbox 360 by Christmas and that the Xbox Live online service has signed up more than 4 million users. That said, some in the industry think Microsoft's headstart won't mean much over time, even though Sony is for now holding off on a European launch.
Of course, it's possible that the next-generation console market could be split evenly three ways, said David Cole, president of DFC Intelligence. But he said the more likely scenario is the market splitting 50-25-25.
In that scenario, Cole said, even if it can't match the 70 percent market share the PS2 enjoyed, "You have to say Sony's still the favorite."
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Nintendo Wii, console, Nintendo Co. Ltd., Microsoft Xbox, video game console
Last time they cost $50 each, this time $60, and soon $70.
Do I think this generation will buck the trend? Nope.
I few of us will defect to the Wii, but the PS3 is going to be popular even if they sold it for $800/unit.
The good news is that even if the Wii does get only 25%, that is 25% of a huge chunk of change and enough money for them to stay in the game.
The current main stream games will always be mainstream, but I really do like how Nintendo prioritizes "fun to play" before "realistic looking".
Successful ideas will eventually make their way out into the more mainstream games.
For good graphics I could just skip the PS3 and roll some of the savings into my next PC upgrade.
But I don't know what I am talking about.
Most people think becasue the $60 TV they bought at Walmart 3 years back is an HDTV becasue it came with a "HD ready" sticker which just means it will let you view your high end HD resolution at its low end crappy resolution.
This is a little bit like spending the extra money for a camera with a "10MP" sticker just to compress the images down to make thumbnails.
To hell the HD. To hell the advanced gaming. To hell that advanced graphics and visual effects.
What's the point of all the cool stuff if games are dull?
I have stopped playing PC games about 4 years ago. NWN1 was my last game. And never looked back - no decent games materialized since then.
Then just for sake of experiment I bought myself Nintendo DS Lite with Tetris and Pac-Man. I was STUNNED to discover that there is still an oasis in gaming industry - Nintendo - which didn't forgotten that games has to be *FUN* and *ENJOYABLE*.
Gosh, Xbox360 was out whole year. And? M$ bought whole PC gaming industry - and what?? No single good and funny game ever materialized. And the Prey still crashes the console. The story repeats with PSP: no single game worth my precious spare time, no single game I can take with me on road (like I do with Tetris DS and Mario Karts DS).
That being said, I'd only ever buy console system for racing games, everything else is better on a PC, especially FPS games. There's nothing outside of a fullsized light-gun with configurable buttons that will beat the mouse and keyboard for playability of FPS.
Adults want games that are fun for their kids. And Nintendo has them. Plus even adults enjoy them and play WITH their children on the console. Seeing that Sony and M$ cater games of violence (what don't you kill to win?), the industry cares more about numbers and resolution than overpriced, overheated toys.
Once Nintendo releases the Wii in Black, they have my vote.
Why should I put my faith in one appliance that will be center of (marketing) media hub? If I want HD video, I'll wait for a Universal player (for both BluRay and HD DVD). I'll also wait for SED as Plasma and LCD are still evolving.
And anyone fool enough to plop $25 down a year ahead for a $100 game (cough Halo 3), deserves the mockery. Oh, you missed a pimple...check the mirror.
That's why I owned a Sega Game Gear and a Genesis (Sega was harsh on devs as well but Ninty was far worse). Went for PS1 as soon as it came out (disillusioned by Sega and their add-ons) then got a PS2.
Last year I found my-self in a position where I was actually thinking of buying a Ninty console for the first time. So I got the DS.
18 years ago that never would have happened. And when I compare the graphics with PSP I don't feel cheated at all, because although I can't watch movies although I can't store mp3s I can spend hours on end playing the most ridiculously simple titles which I would never even considered if they were sold on the PSP with enchanced graphics.
I play polarium Wario Ware and Lost Magic over and over again
I buy titles which use extensively the stylus, any other title which doesn't is not even considered (including high profile Nintendo games such as New Super Mario Bros)
I am a huge fan of Final Fantasy played every single one on PS and PS2, but the if the upcoming release on the DS doesn't use the touch screen Square Enix can forget it.
And that's because I am addicted to the touch screen more than I am addicted to smoking
And now for the first time in 18 years I am anticipating a Ninty release.
I would love to play titles which are quirky and fresh. If I want serious mature games I can just go out and buy the PC version which is considerably cheaper than it's console ports.
I want a gust of fresh air damn it, and if Nintendo delivers they have my vote. HD or no HD (either way I don't own a HDTV nor do I intend to buy one for the next 3-4 years)
That was my personal beef with Nintendo after owning a NES, Super Nintendo and an Nindendo 64 (the latter two I still own).
I think the Wii would be a smart buy.
For example: River City Ransom, arguably the greatest game ever.
or should I (cough) emulation (cough)...
My zapper broke, will wiimote function for duck hunt?
I think the best solution would be an add-on that you can plug cartridges directly into. Something along the lines of the Gameboy Player.
but it may not be pre-installed.
The ?real winner? ? IBM! All three of these consoles use a variant of the Power chip (I think Sony uses the new Cell processor) and all three use more then one processor per console, I believe the 360 uses three. So if the forecast is somewhere around 150 million units over the life of this generation, that?s over 450 million IBM Power based processors. I guess there?s a reason IBM micro electronics saw a 30% jump in revenues last quarter. I?d expect that to continue for awhile?
The 360 prompted for an update that was mandatory and since then old games and new games are locking up every few minutes. MS offered to fix it for $140 plus shipping.
Seem an ingenious way to make money - send out an update that breaks 1% of the 6 million consoles out there. Quick way to make 8.4 million dollars ... ( I know its a drop in the bucket to MS )
Some sites have said that part of the update was designed to fight against firmware modders, but mine is not modded. Heck I dont have enough time to use it but a couple times a month..
I hate to see the $ I have invested go to waste but Im not paying MS to fix a problem that they caused with a patch. Who knows how long it will be till they do it again.
Ill just return the unopened games to Best Buy and try to sell the Xbox and put the $140 plus shipping towards a nintendo or a PS3
Too early to know if everything is supported yet, but Gizmodo has video of Final Fantasy XII playing on a PS3, so that's not too bad right out of the box.
Here is a picture of the PS2's processor in a PS3
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp.nyud.net:8080/docs/2006/1111/
ps3_37.jpg
NEWSFLASH: These analysts make a living *analyzing* this kinda stuff. It's their job.
Joe Blow commenting from his couch that these analysts are off their rocker and the XBox360 is going to dominate this and that is entitled to his opinion, sure, but I think that I'd take the opinion of analysts/marketing execs IN THE BUSINESS as somewhat more substantial.
BTW, some people have very valid arguments for why the PS3 won't win this round, but really, people who say that the year headstart of MS is ACTUALLY meaningful in the life of this generation obviously don't remember the Saturn/PS debacle (when the PS outsold the Saturn's 5 or 6 month lead in like 3 days IIRC). Not saying that something that drastic is going to happen, and I realize that the market conditions are different, etc etc, but really. Sony is projecting a 7-yr lifespan on the PS3. Come on. One year?
My 2 cents.
http://pc.watch.impress.co.jp.nyud.net:8080/docs/2006/1111/
ps3_37.jpg
I think that pretty much ensures it plays all the PS2 games eh?
http://ps3.ign.com/articles/745/745506p1.html
Price and it cant compete with Microsoft Xbox Live....will hurt the PS3. The WII will further kill it with its really lower price.
Some are blaming it on overheating. Wasn't Sony paying attention to the 360 launch?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f4kdWB7i1vE#GU5U2spHI_4
Here is a demo of the PS3 at best buy. You load up a game, this one is NBA Live '07. You get artifacts all over the screen but the game play is still going on
Besides, why would any company pay any attention to what happens with less than 1% of the users of a certain product?
Good luck Sony fans, I hope you don't regret your investment.
Later,
Sam
- Sony extinction
- by exponents November 15, 2006 3:33 PM PST
- Sony is on the virge of becomming another Colecovision... It only takes a few stupid issues to put a company out of a market. Lets see what Sony has done so far:
- Like this Reply to this comment
-
(36 Comments)overheating - check
compatibility issues - check
cell processor glitches - check
motion controller problems - check
priced too high - check
Yep. Everything you need to loose even more marketshare. Such a shame. The rebirth of Nintendo is interesting though. I have a feeling that Sony will find itself in Nintendo's shoes.. fighting to rebuild an empire lost to lack of innovation.