Forecast: Up to 7 million PlayStation 3s to ship soon

Following Sony's unsurprising PlayStation 3 keynote at the Consumer Electronics Show, some pundits prophesized that the console would undergo supply shortages similar to those that Xbox 360 suffered last year.

Just yesterday, an analyst at Pacific Crest Securities gave a sunnier estimate, predicting 1 million PS3 consoles would be available for a November launch. By contrast, Microsoft moved only about 326,000 in the week of November 22, when the Xbox 360 went on sale.

However, Wilson's optimism looks like it's coming from the Grim Reaper in comparison to Pioneer executive Andy Parson's belief. Speaking with Web site The Digital Bits, Parsons talked about the Blu-ray disc format (Pioneer announced several Blu-ray-compatible players at CES) and how the Blu-ray-compatible PlayStation 3 would shape the success of the format.

"The PS3 is launching right at the forefront of Blu-ray disc," Parsons said. "If Sony ships the kind of numbers we expect them to this year, that will provide a very rapid growth of players out there hungry for titles. We've been hearing between 4 (million) and 7 million (PS3s) could ship."

When its Xbox 360 console launched late last year, Microsoft experienced rampant shortages in the U.S. and Europe. However, it was largely due to supply constraints on some of the system's internal parts. The company originally targeted 3 million units to be out the door in the console's first 90 days on the market, but adjusted its figures to 4.5 million to 5.5 million consoles to be shipped by June 2006.

Despite Sony's previous announcement of a spring 2006 launch for the PS3, a consensus of industry analysts believes that the PS3 won't ship until later this year in North America, with a possible midyear launch in Japan.

If Sony shipped between 4 million and 7 million units in less than six months (with the likely scenario of several months in Japan only), the company would outpace Microsoft's lofty goals. To do that, Sony would need a near-perfect production process unmarred by supply shortages and hardware issues.

But unless the console has a $699 price tag, there won't be any problem with demand. When Sony launched its PlayStation 2 in 2000 in Japan, it sold 980,000 units in its first weekend. In its first day in U.S. retailers, Sony moved 510,000 PS2 consoles. To date, the PS2 has sold more than 100 million units.

Sony had not responded to inquiries from GameSpot as of press time.

Tim Surette reported for GameSpot.

[mrpeabody3119]

Blue Ray....

It dosnt make since for the PS3 to have Blue Ray, They already came out and said the stand alone systems would cost upwards of $1000. So if you can buy a PS3 for say $500 people WILL buy the PS3 just for HD DVD. Good Marketing for PS3 BAD marketing for Blue Ray. On the other hand if Sony sells 100 million PS3's, Blue Ray is going to win the HD DVD war and win in the long run. I think the PS3 is going to be a lot more expinsive that you may think. My guess is a $700 machine if Blue Ray comes with the PS3.

[schubb]

Yep, math seems off

I have to agree.
The only thing I can think of is the fact that the processor in a stand alone unit is more expensive, but it "only" has to run as a audio/video decoder. The PS3 has to be able to actually render the scene, with freeform movement, a player simply plays back frame by frame. Unless the PS3 will have lesser blu-ray playback capabilities that a stand alone player.

[tlite722]

is that the best source/quote cnet could get???

so you ask and quote a pioneer guy to headline the story....what a joke. let's review the quote...he "hears" that 7M PS3 will ship. hey buddy...i hear the thing will launch in may too and that its the next freakin coming but guess what...it won't and it isn't.

here's something that would have been more relevant to the story. pioneer guy says WE have received orders for 7M blu-ray drives from sony and we are on track to deliver...too bad they aren't making the drives and they don't know squat...

[lingsun]

I think Blu Ray will be a fiasco

I think Blu Ray will be a fiasco. There are too many expensive hurdles with making the DVDs. Sony could have a huge base of players with disks way too expensive to buy. I think HD DVD is going to be the format that's going to win.