December 2, 2004 3:56 AM PST
Flat-panel TVs can't topple tubes--just yet
Flat-panel monitors are topping many wish lists this holiday season, but old-fashioned tube TVs still produce better pictures.
It looks like chunky CRTs will hold the attention of many viewers for years to come.
Retailers expect flat-screen televisions to be highly popular this season--and recent price drops are only expected to boost sales.
But for all the hype around next-generation televisions, flat panels have a way to go before they rival their cheaper CRT (cathode ray tube) counterparts in performance--or cost.
"Consumers think they're buying the best in technology (with flat-panel televisions), but it's more of an emotional purchase," said Bob O'Donnell, an analyst with researcher IDC. "It's part status and part wanting to be on the cutting edge."
The technologies behind flat-panel televisions--plasma and liquid crystal display--let manufacturers create larger, thinner and lighter sets. Flat panels are getting as big as 60 inches but weigh only a fraction of the largest CRT sets, the consumer versions of which are limited to about 42 inches. The comparatively petite cases of flat screens also allow them to be hung from walls, although this is rarely done because it makes sets difficult to move or adjust. Still, neither plasma nor LCD technology quite measures up to CRT when it comes to picture quality.
LCDs are great as desktop PC monitors because they don't have to refresh pictures rapidly--more LCD desktop monitors were shipped in 2004 than those using CRT technology, according to researcher iSuppli--but they don't work as well when used as televisions. Plasmas tend to lose brightness over time and don't offer images as sharp as those served up by CRTs. Manufacturers are working to improve these shortcomings.
However, from the manufacturers' point of view, the CRT business has run its course, with profits being wrung out after some 50 years of significantly boosting companies' bottom line. Though CRTs make up about 90 percent of the global television market, growth rates have been stable for some time. Shipments for flat televisions, meanwhile, are up modestly, accounting for 5 percent of the market. But their hefty profit margins are driving manufacturer interest.
Prices will continue to decline in coming years as the market consolidates, growth flattens and manufacturers are forced to compete more aggressively on price, according to Siegfried Trinker, director of corporate strategy at LG.Philips Displays International. So far, the average price of CRT televisions in 2004 is $304, according to iSuppli. Trinker sees a budget television market made up mostly of CRTs that open with average prices of $250. With such low price tags, many consumers will find it hard to justify any other television technology.
"What they want is one thing, and what they buy is another," Trinker said.
Analysts seem to agree. iSuppli forecasts that the CRT market will still account for about 70 percent of the television market by 2008.
"CRTs are still the most cost-effective technology on the market," said Jim Sanduski, marketing vice president of displays at Samsung Electronics of America.
Where there's a dominating market share, there's an opportunity,
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