E-commerce experts: You ain't seen nothing yet

PALO ALTO, Calif.--Some Internet pioneers who survived the roller-coaster of the dot-com boom and bust said Friday that the ride has only just begun.

Much work and much opportunity lie ahead for e-commerce companies, executives from Yahoo, VeriSign and CNET Networks (publisher of News.com) said during a panel discussion here on Friday to commemorate the 10-year anniversary of e-commerce.

"We haven't even started yet; we're really in 'E-commerce 101,'" said Dan Rosensweig, chief operating officer of Yahoo. "I think this is going to get really fun in the next 10 years."

Though the date is debatable, it's thought that the first secure e-commerce transaction took place sometime in the summer of 1994. A company called NetMarket, now owned by Cendant, claimed it conducted the first encrypted Web transaction on Aug. 11, 1994, with the sale of the Sting CD "Ten Summoner's Tales." Since then, e-commerce has become a relatively small, but booming sliver of the U.S. economy. According to Department of Commerce figures, e-commerce accounted for 1.7 percent of all U.S. consumer sales in the second quarter of 2004.

The panelists were enthusiastic on Friday about the prospects of increasing that amount closer to a double-digit figure, despite growing fears over identity theft, fraud, privacy invasion and online nuisances such as viruses, worms and spam that have taken root on the Web right along side online shopping.

Panelist Shelby Bonnie, chief executive officer of CNET, acknowledged that businesses could be more proactive about attacking the dark side of e-commerce.

"Industry leaders need to be the people that solve this, so that folks in Washington don't wake up wanting to do something about it," Bonnie said.

The panelists offered an array of ideas about how e-commerce might evolve in positive ways during the next few years. Some of the ideas were new, and others have been discussed for years but have yet to take off. Most speakers agreed that the sales of music, movies, games and other digital products represent one of the most exciting and dynamic areas of e-commerce. Internet visionaries are also working on ratcheting up so-called personalization and localization technology to make Web sites anticipate a shopper's every need wherever they happen to be.

Another holy grail is the prospect of luring consumers to shop over their cell phones--a big trend in Asian countries that hasn't caught on as much in the United States.

Rosensweig and Bonnie predicted that Web logs and online communities such as Friendster would come to incorporate e-commerce features through "favorites" lists for music and games. The panelists agreed that online auctions and the migration of electronic transactions from proprietary Electronic Data Interchange networks to the Internet, will continue to grow and thrive.

Panelist Mary Meeker, an Internet stock analyst at Morgan Stanley, predicted that site outages would become more frequent during the next few years as the Web grows more complex. She also said the long-awaited rise of online "micropayments," which are payments of only a few cents for goods and services bought online, is just around the corner. But fellow panelist Charles Jadallah, executive vice president of Merchant e-Solutions, disagreed. They made a 10-cent bet on it--and Meeker said Jadallah would have to settle the bet via micropayment if she won.

E-Commerce ride taking off for the little guys too....

As an online retailer of sympathy gifts, I have seen a 300% increase in sales over the past year. It's encouraging to know that the e-commerce ride is taking off for us "little guys" as well.

As things take a nosedive with my husband's traditional job as a pilot with United Airlines, I am encouraged with the growing success of my site, thecomfortcompany.net.

I'm grateful for the opportunities the internet has presented to me...I am a mother of four young daughters who is able to stay at home to raise them, while at the same time, I am able to use my professional training as a social work to help others comfort those in grief.

Yes, this ride has just begun and it seems the opportunities are endless, even for us little guys.

[John Kuzak]

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re:E-commerce

Jeddah: 10.18.2004

Att: Mr. Alorie Gilbert

Dear Mr. Gilbert,
Re: Your Article: E-commerce experts: You ain't seen nothing yet

I agree with Mr. Dan when he said: "We haven't even started yet; we're really in 'E-commerce 101,'" said Dan Rosensweig, chief operating officer of Yahoo. "I think this is going to get really fun in the next 10 years." That?s because E-business or E-commerce did not yet have had a certain target to reach.
Your article gives an idea on single job of E-business is to reach directly to consumers worldwide. Then I suggest to rename as: E-shop. As a businessman with experience of more than 30 years, I had noticed that most of consumers are only sight seeing tourists. Among those visiting markets only 5% buy some thing. On the base of cash & carry. Do you think that visitors to web sites can achieve better?
It is better to reconsider E-commerce sites as links between businessmen, exporters & importers, manufacturers & distributors, etc. The aim must be to exchange services & share information, experience, and market trends\ direction.
Sincerely yours,
Abdol Rahim Mirza,
[e-mail].
P.O.Box 2874, Jeddah 21461,
Saudi Arabia.