September 29, 2004 4:40 PM PDT
Desktop Linux a vehicle for pirating Windows
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The consulting firm issued a report on Wednesday stating that about 40 percent of Linux PCs will be modified to run an illegal copy of Windows, a bait-and-switch maneuver that lowers the cost of obtaining a Windows PC.
In emerging markets, where desktop Linux enjoys wider popularity, the trend is even starker. Around 80 percent of the time, Linux will be removed for a pirated copy of Windows. Pirated copies sell for around $1 in the streets of Shanghai and other cities in Asia and Eastern Europe, but can also be bought in stores selling brand name PCs.
As a result, the number of desktop Linux PCs that ship will exceed the actual percentage of Linux machines that get installed in the real world. Desktop Linux will account for about 5 percent of desktops shipped in 2004, according to Gartner, with 10.5 percent of the desktops in Asia shipping with Linux this year. However, the installed base of Linux will come to only 1.3 percent.
In 2008, Linux will account for 7.5 percent of PCs shipped, but only 2.6 percent of the installed base, about the same that Apple's installed base will be then.
A comparable lack of drivers, training costs and migration headaches will also retard desktop Linux growth.
"Linux on the desktop may be generating a lot of publicity, but there are very few large-scale dedicated Linux deployments," the firm stated. "Governments in several European countries have announced plans to migrate to Linux, but most of these projects are in the evaluation phase."
Price, of course, is a huge motivator in piracy. All of the components inside PCs have dropped in price in the past several years, except Windows. Windows accounted for around 5 percent to 6 percent of the cost of building a "professional"-level PC in 1996. Now, the operating system accounts for 12 percent to 15 percent of the cost.
Still, the growing acceptance of Linux has prompted Microsoft to hatch plans for releasing an inexpensive version of Windows, called Windows XP Starter Edition in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Russia and India.
"It is likely that Microsoft would prefer the initial OS on a new PC to be a Windows variant rather than Linux, even if piracy were to continue," the report stated. "This would reduce the amount of interest that Linux is generating because of its increasing presence on new PCs."
Gartner is a tough audience these days. In August, Gartner wrote a report criticizing Windows XP Starter Edition, claiming that it lacked some features and would "likely increase software piracy."
31 comments
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-Chris
#rm -rf microsoft*
Now, it is not unconceivable that PC's which would otherwise be sold without OS would be sold with Linux, because why not? it's free and may even boost sales - people prefer something readily usable. Not having a free OS as an option would however not prevent, or even make it harder for theCrook to get his machine without OS.
I think the data from Gartner is realistic, even though it is safer to have dozens of studies pointing in the same direction before upgrading from realistic to real. You know, lies, damn lies and statistics. As for Mike's spin, well, it's a free country, anybody can say what they want
with a Linux (or something else). I can imagine that the installed
base for Linux is much higher than what's perceived by the tech
media and the garbage numbers they get from so called tech
analysts.
It's pretty obvious that the Windows market-share is slightly
inflated due to the fact that you can't easily buy a PC without
some sort of Windows operating system already installed. How
many of those PCs have been bought that were reconfigured to
run something else and not Windows?
There is nothing blatant about this article. It talks about what's happening in India & our neighbours & I can assure you this is a very accurate article in this regard.
So, your take on American corps using Linux is quite irrelevant here.
Please open your eyes to the rest of the planet.
Cheers - Vikram
Who, after going to all the work of getting a computer with Linux already installed, would then take Linux off to install Windows? How mentally retarded do you have to be to even suggest that?
I am seeing more and more of these inane stories coming out. I assume that Microsoft is terrified of Linux and that Linux is taking away a huge chunk of their business. Now, they're back to the "Linux is the choice of the lawless" tactic in order to scare people away.
Actually, the only thing taking away Microsoft's business is Microsoft itself. Every time someone turns on their Windows computer, they are reminded of why they want something else (anything else). No one would even be looking at other software but for the fact that Windows and MS Office behave like junk.
It's obvious that you are living in an ivory tower.
This news is about what's happening outside the US.
Speaking for India, I can assure all of you that this article is 100% true. All the biggies like IBM & Dell ship their PCs with Linux here, which most Indians don't like for SOHO use.
This is simply 'cuz these guys are unable to compete with local PC makers in all of Asia.
Wake up, folks!
Cheers - Vikram
Yup - the article's about things happening outside of the USA, and in that respect, it's very true.
On virii on MS, I believe it's got to do with 2 things - (a) more people target Microsoft since that's, by far, the most popular desktop OS & that's the most profitable segment to attack for fraud or fun. Servers are typically too well-protected to be affected. (b) Microsoft has been developing (good) stuff at a very fast clip, and making some very complicated products. It's natural that something that's done slower (like any open source project) will be more thorough in nature & hence have lesser loopholes.
Cheers - Vikram
So what this tells me is that Gartenr is clueless about the number of computers actually running anything. SInce they depend on industry reports of initial sales, they have no idea what the GNU/Linux install base even is, let alone the complete red herring of piracy. People who pirate will just Pirate. People who want working and secure desktops will just use Free Software.
Ruben
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.nylxs.com" target="_newWindow">http://www.nylxs.com</a>
So, just to put the record straight, I am not a Windows user. My laptop has NO windows version on it (if I dual boot, it is to a different distribution of Linux). But I guess Redland "counts" me as a Windows user.
If there could be a poll of those who wipe their windows os in favor of any of the *nix's, I think the market share would show a much higher statistic. With the release of RHWP I have a feeling we'll see a great many more of the forgotten niche (SMB, home user) going for it. The package is a superior stable distribution at enterprise level quality and ease of installation and use.
I think this is just the beginning of a serious growth year for linux. From what I understand from reading over the past year, IBM and RH are getting together to promote this, so we should see some real advertising soon.
Why not have a title saying "Bill Gates promotes addiction in poor countries" with a follow up article about how some free software evangelist was quoting an article in Forbes from June 1998 during one of many free/open source conferences so popular nowadays? It would certainly draw a lot of attention and would be "more true" than "Linux is a vehicle for piracy".
While I am at it, Linux, or more correctly GNU/Linux, is distributed under the GNU GPL copyright and license. I can't see the connection with piracy.
Finally, don't CNET and Mr. Kanellos realize that Gartner, Jupiter, Forrester and the like, have completely discredited themselves during and after the Internet bubble with their (now) laughable data? Why should anyone believe them and, on top, add to their mindless musings?
Modi Buzzgrowl
Come on Linux users dont use windows&& thats the whole point!
But next they will be saying people buying a pc without an os installed is bad news.
If i brought a pc with linux i would keep it unless it was a rubbish distro :-P