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That's the gist of a new report from Computing Research Association (CRA), a group made up of academic departments, research centers and professional societies.
The study could fuel concerns that the United States may be losing its edge in the realm of information technology, especially when measured against emerging powers such as India and China. The dot-com bust and offshore outsourcing have been mentioned as factors to explain declining interest among Americans in computer science.
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Citing research from the Higher Education Research Institute at the University of California at Los Angeles, the report says the percentage of incoming undergraduates indicating they would major in computer science declined by more than 60 percent between the fall of 2000 and the fall of 2004, and is now 70 percent lower than it was during its peak in the early 1980s.
Interest in computer science among women fell 80 percent between 1998 and 2004, and 93 percent since its peak in 1982, according to the report, which will appear in the May edition of Computing Research News.
Last fall, the number of incoming freshmen who felt they would probably major in computer science was just less than 1.5 percent of all enrolled freshmen, according to the report.
"Freshmen interest levels at any given point have been an accurate predictor of trends in the number of degrees granted four to five years later," the report said. "It therefore seems likely that there will be a sharp decline in the number of bachelor's degrees granted in CS (computer science) in the coming decade."
CRA said results from its own survey of computer science departments reinforce this argument. The group's survey found that the number of newly declared computer science majors has declined for the past four years and is now 39 percent lower than in the fall of 2000. Enrollments have declined 7 percent in each of the past two years, CRA said.
"With a fall in degree production looming, it is difficult to see how CS can match expected future demand for IT workers without raising women's participation at the undergraduate level," the group said.
The topic of the declining participation of women in IT is prominent among concerns about the future of high technology in the United States.
That decline is somewhat puzzling, in part because women have increased their share of jobs in related areas, such as natural sciences.
Interest in the issue has been spurred in part by a furor over remarks earlier this year by Harvard University President Lawrence Summers. At a conference in January, Summers suggested that innate differences between the genders could help explain why fewer women succeed in science and math careers. He later apologized for the remarks.
See more CNET content tagged:
freshmen, computer science, women, fall, survey




per week. Yes, that's per week! That works out to
$5.00 per hour. That is below minimum wage! I can
make more flipping burgers! Why did I go to school?
per week. Yes, that's per week! That works out to
$5.00 per hour. That is below minimum wage! I can
make more flipping burgers! Why did I go to school?
To that I say good! Not only will it insure against oversaturation and an even bigger dive in wages and job positions, it will insure that only the most passionate will perservere through an extremely demanding programing. The IT world and computting in general will benefit.
To that I say good! Not only will it insure against oversaturation and an even bigger dive in wages and job positions, it will insure that only the most passionate will perservere through an extremely demanding programing. The IT world and computting in general will benefit.
I am graduating in August in CS and have a full time contract web development job, plus side jobs. I didn't know anyone to get the jobs, I learned a lot on the side, entered a web competition, won, then met people and got jobs. I took one job away from an outsourced Indian company because they stunk, and they didn't care I cost more. Five of my friends are working for Microsoft and Google. There are plenty of jobs!!! I have to turn away jobs.
Maybe we should offer more and whine less. Maybe you get outsourced because you are lazy or don't offer them enough. Those companies that outsource everything will eat it later on. Stop whining!!!
I am graduating in August in CS and have a full time contract web development job, plus side jobs. I didn't know anyone to get the jobs, I learned a lot on the side, entered a web competition, won, then met people and got jobs. I took one job away from an outsourced Indian company because they stunk, and they didn't care I cost more. Five of my friends are working for Microsoft and Google. There are plenty of jobs!!! I have to turn away jobs.
Maybe we should offer more and whine less. Maybe you get outsourced because you are lazy or don't offer them enough. Those companies that outsource everything will eat it later on. Stop whining!!!
The solution has two components.
First, American computer language and operation system companies must quit shipping bug-invested, poorly designed tools. When the foundation is weak, the best application developer in the world is going to struggle. Older workers know better, and don't want to use the new crap. How many tens of billions were wasted on VB-based projects that crashed and burned in the 90s. The new kids didn't know any better and didn't care, so they embraced VB. The older workers knew VB was sick and have been left our in the cold.
Second, more American businesses need to re-train older tech workers, if they expect the best and brightest in the next generation to be interested in tech careers. Too many older tech workers are unemployed or under-employed right now. Forty year-old managers are not interested in fifty-five year-old programmers regardless of their previous accomplishments. Everybody can't be expected to go the management route. Even if the older tech worker has taken classes in .NET and Java, he/she can't claim experience in the newer technology until they get a chance to use it professionally. Too many CFOs and CEOs have believed the bloated promises of the tech industry salesmen and ignored the wisdom of their experienced work force.
If I had to do it over again, I would have earned a liberal arts degree instead of a Masters in IT. At least I wouldn't have to see my intelligent, highly-skilled friends being laid off and under utilized.
The solution has two components.
First, American computer language and operation system companies must quit shipping bug-invested, poorly designed tools. When the foundation is weak, the best application developer in the world is going to struggle. Older workers know better, and don't want to use the new crap. How many tens of billions were wasted on VB-based projects that crashed and burned in the 90s. The new kids didn't know any better and didn't care, so they embraced VB. The older workers knew VB was sick and have been left our in the cold.
Second, more American businesses need to re-train older tech workers, if they expect the best and brightest in the next generation to be interested in tech careers. Too many older tech workers are unemployed or under-employed right now. Forty year-old managers are not interested in fifty-five year-old programmers regardless of their previous accomplishments. Everybody can't be expected to go the management route. Even if the older tech worker has taken classes in .NET and Java, he/she can't claim experience in the newer technology until they get a chance to use it professionally. Too many CFOs and CEOs have believed the bloated promises of the tech industry salesmen and ignored the wisdom of their experienced work force.
If I had to do it over again, I would have earned a liberal arts degree instead of a Masters in IT. At least I wouldn't have to see my intelligent, highly-skilled friends being laid off and under utilized.
- For those who care about American IT and our national security
- by 207796398873175208235380528963 September 17, 2005 10:41 AM PDT
- This is a MUST reading for those who care about the future of American IT and our national security (see the link): http://www.alexanderbell.us/Initiative/IT.htm
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