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The report by Kinetic Strategies is consistent with its initial market forecast issued in April. "Although cable modem customers in North America now account for a minuscule portion of the overall residential Internet access market, broadband cable Internet services are beginning to have a significant impact in specific communities where they are offered," the study says.
| Two-way cable modem customers projected by year's end | ||
| Company | Subscribers | |
| Time Warner Cable | 29,000 | |
| MediaOne | 17,000 | |
| Cox (@Home affiliate) | 15,000 | |
| Rogers Cablesystems (@) | 11,000 | |
| Comcast (@) | 10,000 | |
| Videotron | 5,800 | |
| Shaw (@) | 5,000 | |
| COGECO | 4,500 | |
| TCI (@) | 4,000 | |
| Adelphia | 2,400 | |
| Cablevision Systems (@) | 2,000 | |
| Jones Intercable | 1,400 | |
| Other | 4,000 | |
| Source: Kinetic Strategies Inc. | ||
Analysts have been paying close attention to these figures, not only to gauge the success of newly public companies such as @Home but also to measure the growth of cable modem access vs. DSL (digital subscriber line). As previously reported, Baby Bells such as US West and SBC Communications as well as start-ups such as Covad Communications are gearing up to or are already rolling out DSL. (See related story)
The number now stands at about 90,000 subscribers, Michael Harris, president of Kinetic Strategies, said today. That is more optimistic than the 70,000 figure reported by Yankee Group today. (See related story)
By year's end, two-way cable modem service will be commercially available to 9 million homes, or nearly 9 percent of all homes with cable available to them passed in North America.
Time Warner's Road Runner will log 29,000 subscribers by year's end, compared to 48,000 for the @Home affiliates Cox, Rogers, Comcast, Tele-Communications Inc., and Shaw Communications. US West's MediaOne will get an estimated 17,000 subscribers by year's end.
Kinetic reiterated its prediction that the number of two-way cable modem subscribers in North America will reach 200,000 in the second quarter of next year and beyond 1 million by mid 1999.
