Browser war ain't over till it's over

Even before releasing the final version of Internet Explorer 3.0, Microsoft had already made headway on several fronts against Netscape Communications, owner of the dominant browser on the Web. But despite the fervor attendant to this week's launch, most analysts aren't ready to eulogize Navigator.

That doesn't mean that Netscape isn't on the defensive; the company is clearly scrambling to match Microsoft's marketing moves in the same way that Microsoft spent much of this year matching Navigator's technology. Navigator's most pressing challenge is to assemble by Monday its own partnerships with Web content providers as part of its Navigator 3.0 launch.

In its own Monday night launch, Microsoft announced a content giveaway worth several hundred dollars through deals with Web publishers such as the Wall Street Journal.

With the latest versions of both browsers just out of the gate, it's too early to call the race. But some industry handicappers are already laying down the odds.

According to most analysts familiar with the browser market, what's clear is that Netscape's hammerlock on the browser market has been broken. The company will almost certainly lose the overwhelming dominance that it has enjoyed until the past several weeks, when beta versions of Explorer 3.0 began cutting into its lead. But most analysts also expect the browser fight to be a draw, with Microsoft and Netscape splitting the market, rather than a winner-take-all scenario.

But with Microsoft in the unlikely role of underdog, Netscape is left with the most to lose. And it is already losing.

Navigator's market share, which ran as high as 84 percent in a Dataquest study from April, is diminishing. Dataquest hasn't updated its numbers since then, but a number of Web sites that track browser statistics on their own pages, including newsletter BrowserWatch, the InterNect Financial Database, and Interse, indicate that Internet Explorer usage has risen considerably this summer.

On average, the sites show that Explorer has gone from a 7 percent market share four months ago to around 15 percent in July, before the release of the final version 3.0.