October 10, 2007 1:37 PM PDT
Blu-ray vs. HD DVD: War without end
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That was the question posed at the opening session of the DisplaySearch's 5th Annual HDTV Conference here. The much-hyped battle between opposing next-generation packaged media formats HD DVD and Blu-ray Disc still has no clear winner. Each of the panelists onhand to hash out the question of which side will prevail predictably had an agenda--to explain why his camp will win.
While there was no answer, several things became more clear: Studios have learned some lessons over the past year, and both sides are still essentially guessing as to what will be most compelling to consumers. Adoption of next-generation players and media is still low compared with standard-definition fare, though consumer recognition of all things high-definition is growing, which should benefit both sides.
Talk of this so-called war isn't new. But as more consumers buy high-definition television sets, and as the prices of next-generation set-top boxes and players come down and more people are exposed to the marketing push for high-definition discs from movie studios, retailers and hardware makers, they will be faced with a choice. Remaining neutral, though, is still what many are choosing.
Since this time last year, there's been some shift in the landscape of high-definition media. One of the most highly publicized changes was Paramount's decision to back off its Switzerland-like approach of offering its content on both formats and focus exclusively on HD DVD. The shift had a significant impact--at the very least on the perception of the format war, which up until that point appeared to be favoring Blu-ray.
For the record, Paramount Executive Vice President Allen Bell said the decision "didn't have much to do with the format war," but rather observations of the industry dynamics. (However, The New York Times reported that Paramount and Dreamworks Animation had both been paid off to choose HD DVD.)
"Up until (the) launch of two formats you could do an analysis and it was fundamentally a PowerPoint deck...more or less a white paper," Bell said. "We were the first company that went ahead and said, we're going to try both. A year later...does it become a good consumer proposition?" Compatibility, as well as consistency of the players from competing manufacturers and content availability led the studio to HD DVD, he said.
Though Paramount might think it has picked a winner, consumer polling by The NPD Group doesn't back up that decision. There are still plenty of factors holding up the next-generation packaged media industry as a whole.
Though NPD is forecasting that more than 1 million next-generation players will be sold and 400 movie titles released next year, there still doesn't appear to be a stated demand from consumers for high-definition DVDs. According to an NPD poll, 66 percent of respondents said they're not likely to buy a high-definition player in the next six months. "We've been seeing this over and over and over again," said Russ Crupnick, a senior industry analyst for NPD.
Besides intent to buy being low, standard-definition DVDs are just fine with most consumers. "Unfortunately, we developed the perfect product (with the DVD)," Crupnick said. "We've got to overcome the fact that we're competing against a wonderful product that's in 80 percent of households." Upconverting DVD players--players that translate standard-definition discs to output them in high-definition--cost significantly less (around $60) than HD DVD and Blu-ray players, which go for between $200 and $800.
But DVD wasn't a perfect product in the beginning, which several of the panelists were quick to point out. In fact, it was the one thing they could all agree on.
"When DVD first launched it was anything but the perfect product," recalled Andy Parsons, a Pioneer executive and chairman of the Blu-ray Disc Association. "There were many doubters that said there was little chance of overtaking VHS."
As HDTV adoption continues to creep up (8 out of 10 television purchases last month were high-definition sets, according to NPD), the number also represents potential consumers of next-generation players, because they have the displays to take advantage of high-definition content. But how to persuade consumers, first, to decide to buy a next-generation player and, second, to choose a side?
See more CNET content tagged:
NPD Group Inc., HD-DVD, war, Blu-ray, decision
138 comments
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Figures from Comet.
Number one is the iPod touch 8GB.
Number two is the Carlsberg DraughtMaster
2-Content- You have to have the movies that people want to watch.
Way too simple
2. Seems pretty even really.
I agree, though, that if all studios made their DVD/HDDVD combo disks the same price as DVD's, and stopped releasing the DVD-only combo, HDDVD would win within a year.
on selected disney movies(online only). DVD prices for HD content.
competition is good for the consumer
The future of home entertainment is a hard drive that can be played in many rooms on many screens. Hard drive fail and hard drives need to be backed up and the hard ware that hard drives are attached to become obsolete. If I want to rent content I will rent it. DRM is not something I plan to pay for.
Nearly half of my dvd collection is Region 1 (ie US) because so much material is simply only available from the US.
It is not the big films (eg Casino Royale was released here a week after its US release) but the smaller or older films that simply are not available outside the US.
For this reasonI will NOT purchase a DVD or hi def DVD player that cannot play disks from any region.
I am not talking about illegal copies but legitimately purchased DVDs.
Whilst HD DVD does not have zones Blu Ray does. For this reason alone I hope HD DVD wins this "format war".
And as for the absurd DRM scenario where it is necessary to update firmware on a regular basis ...well consumers will simply not accept this stupidity.
So maybe the consumers are not so foolish after all...maybe the DRM model for both HD DVD and Blu Ray has to be far more consumer friendly beofre either format will succeed.
And maybe someone can explain why a HD dvd player that retails in the US for $300 costs nearly $1000 here?
choose between two incompatible bodies of content - movies.
This is different than VHS vs. Beta, a true format war. There both
hardware formats had virtually the same set of available movies
to watch. We simply watched whatever movie we wanted,
regardless of format.
Now we are being asked to choose one group of movies and
exclude the other. Worse, we have no idea what desirable
movies are going to be made & released in the future- much
lees on which format.
Who cares, or even knows, which studio is going to relelease
which movie in which format - Blu-Ray or HD-DVD; we just want
to watch whichever movie we like. Trying to force consumers to
reject one group of movies by accepting the other group
because the players are incompatible is not a war that is
winnable by either side. We'll just continue to watch SD-DVD.
Unless, like me, you just bought an LG combo player thaqt plays
both formats.
I'm waiting on the sidelines, especially since my std def DVDs look truly stunning already, and for most of my TV watching (95%) are plenty satisfying to meet my needs.
--mark d.
Until they finish playing their little game, I'm not buying !
So until Apple makes their final choice, nobody can move forward.
Chances are high the PLASTIC CD/DVD/HDDVD is Dead!
Just like Apple created and killed the Floppy & CD for PCs, they are about to kill the last vestige of spinning PLASTIC and go directly to WIRELESS.
No need for a rotating PLASTIC Disk in this age.
THINK about it!
So Apple may have already played its cards, thus no format will survive going forward.
Only Apple has enough market power to decide this debate, and "silence" spells "wireless".
End of GAME
-
so im not sure how they killed it but whatever.
also I never buy anything apple no ipod no iphone say no to apple hehe :)
Also I won't buy either player till this war is solved
They *really* set the standard with those one-button mice....
They *really* set the standard with the Nubus slot...
They *really* set the standard with Safari...
They *marginally* set a standard with firewire...
Now, as late adopters, they are using Intel chips, with PCI/AGP/PCI-express slots, 5-button mice (by default), and most everything connecting via USB!
I think I'll wait for Apple to choose HD-DVD or Blu-ray...... or not.....
However, they sure do seem to set the standard for iSheep, who shrilly bleat out ill-informed opinions deep w/in their own echo chamber.
Hysterical...
No issues, no annoying nag screens, and no zones to worry about.
It works, it's good enough and that is all I need.
Toshiba did one thing right and that was to create a final specification. The BDA has fallen down by failing to require full BD+ Java support and ethernet. However, the product itself is superior. Each layer holds more and the actual discs themselves are higher quality. Aside from the Prestige incident, the discs are nearly indestructable, unlike HD-DVD. The scratch resistent coating is a big plus.
Overall the studios supported by Blu-ray are just better. More action movies and then there are some of the classics like Bergman. Aside from Bourne Trilogy and Transformers, there isn't too much to miss on the action front. Without the okay of Spielberg, Coppola, and Ridley Scott, HD-DVD is missing out on a lot of great action directors.
Ultimately, cable-based video on demand might be the ultimate winner. Remember that old Quest commercial, where they guy checks into the motel, and asks the clerk what was available on the room TVs?
"All rooms have every movie ever made in every language anytime."
In another few years, Comcast and the rest of the cable vendors will have that. And the idiots at Blu-ray and HD-DVD will have blown their chance by stalling their market.
No, the convincing will have to be done of the early-adopter set... not "consumers", who couldn't care less about which format to use until they finally decide to start buying 'em.
It was the same way with VHS vs. Beta... most people didn't care because they didn't have a VCR. When the bulk of consumers finally decided to buy one, the format wars were over as far as tapes were concerned.
/P
I'm playing around with the XB360 option right now because the thing is going to cost me $150 bucks and I'll get 6 free movies. I can buy the combo disks as well, even before I decide to buy it. So, if that format loses... really, no sweat off my ass since I already own the 360. By the time a format has won the war, a dual player will be completely affordable.
Screw that I can watch whatever I want on DvD no need to pay 1500 bucks for a diffrent player to do the same.
Not to mention my DvD player hooked up to my Hi-Def TV looks better and sounds better than any movie theaters within a 300 mile radius.
Some people forget that the DVD Function of the PS2 helped drive sales of DVD's and the PS2.
Also the idea that one will loose is what made me wait to even buy the movies for my PS3, but the fact that Blu-Ray is superior technology AND the fact I bought a ton of movies for $9.99 and $14.99 and inexpensive box sets, such as the Spider-Man box set.
Ultimately, it might not be porn, but kids that help decide. The fact Disney (with help of having Steve Jobs on the board) is going Blu-Ray only, and is re mastering all their classics for Blu-Ray (something my wife is excited about and mentioned buying a second PS3 for our bedroom) might help push Blu-Ray farther.
HD DVD costs less to manufacture.
HD DVD is better picture quality. BluRay is still doing MPEG2. HD DVD is doing VC1 or H264 (but support MPEG2 as well).
HD DVD is better sound quality. Decode of lossless Dolby HD is mandatory for HD DVD (not so for BluRay). Dolby Digital Plus is 3 Mbps for HD DVD, 1.7 Mbps for Bluray.
I still won't buy anything until I see a winner emerge (these things don't always go the way logic suggests they should). But I doubt anyone outside the USA is hoping for a BluRay win.
how much it costs to manufacture them?
Blu-Ray supports the exact same video codecs that HD DVD
does: MPEG2, VC1, and H264.
HD DVD and Blu-Ray have exactly the same audio codecs
available, but Blu-Ray makes a couple of them optional for low-
end players.
It's pretty clear Blu-Ray is way, way ahead. My Blockbuster is
one of the ones that got "grandfathered in" and rents both Blu-
Ray and HD DVD (most just rent Blu-Ray). I never see any of the
HD DVD ones rented, while about 10% of the Blu-Ray titles are
regularly gone. Our Borders also sells both, and the salesman
says he's never seen anyone buy an HD DVD. And you can look
on this site:
<a class="jive-link-external" href="http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/" target="_newWindow">http://www.eproductwars.com/dvd/</a>
and see that HD DVD hasn't outsold Blu-Ray on Amazon more
than a few days of the year.
A format war, no matter what the few differences between them,
doesn't help anyone. It's time for the HD DVD camp to stop
being bribed and just acquiesce.
2) You have no idea what production costs are for HD DVD or Blu-ray.
3)HD DVD and Blu-ray have identical picture quality.Both use VC1 or H264.
4) Blu-ray and HD DVD have equal sound quality.
Blu-ray discs have the double the storage capacity,allowing potential for much better picture quality. Blu-ray video processors have a higher bandwidth.
The public has spoken: Blu-ray outsells HD-DVD 60-40 since inception.
of movies in high-definition. By the time the dust settles my
machines will have paid for themselves many times over and they
will probably be worn out and need to be replaced anyway. Best
regards, David
And that, my friends, will eventually lead to all manufacturers producing players supporting BOTH formats. There's JUST NO OTHER WAY, or a way either camp will get a clear victory. Right now multi-format players may be pricier, but we all know the end of this story, don't we?
Unless they think of and come up with something *really* revolutionary, convincing people next time to replace their "outdated" BD and HD players will be even tougher.
finished. Toshiba and pals aren't players in anything consumer
that matters.
I refuse to play there little games and I will not reward either side with my money or support. Yes, I have a 56" HDTV, Direct TV HD programming and while the extra resolution is ok, it certainly isn't enough of a difference to warrant dealing with the studios and electronics makers petty little pissing matches.
Add to that the increased copy protection, add in all of the promises about the wow capabilities for both formats that will like DVD which also had a number of wow features never be used. We were promised rich movie experiences at home with multiple angles and more. So far the only people making any kind of use of such features is the porn industry.
No it is time consumers stop jumping off the cliff like lemmings and make it clear that if these companies want our time and money they need to get the stuff coming out of their poo holes together.
Robert
DVD. I've seen the difference between all three formats and it's
not worth it (to me anyway) to pay that much more money for
such a minor difference. I can pick up a regular DVD release for
about 15 dollars and the hidef release is 30-40. I'm sorry but
the answer is no.
And that's not counting any of the older movies transferred from
film - from DVD to Hidef isn't going to improve much of
anything. Over all it's just not worth the money and I think a lot
of people realize this.
television. Also renting standard def or high-def/blu-ray discs
cost's the same. Regards, David