September 1, 2004 4:00 AM PDT

Newsmaker: Betting it all on Napster

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By any measure, Napster Chief Executive Chris Gorog is one of the world's biggest believers in digital music.

Eighteen months ago, his company, Roxio, was a successful, if unspectacular, player in the CD-burning software market. Then, in a rapid-fire corporate transformation, he purchased the Napster brand name at a bankruptcy auction, bought the record-label-backed Pressplay subscription service and relaunched the Napster brand as an iTunes song store rival and online music subscription service.

A few weeks ago, he took the final step, selling off the old Roxio business and changing the company's name to Napster altogether. The move has won him kudos from those who saw the old business slowing down, along with head-shakes of disbelief from those who think Napster is outmatched against bigger rivals such as Apple Computer, Microsoft and Sony.

That chutzpah is being thrown into relief this week, as Microsoft prepares to launch its MSN digital music store. Gorog has been one of the most vocal backers of Microsoft media technology, but the new Microsoft store will compete directly with his download business.

Still, he says he's no more worried about this than he was about Sony or Wal-Mart Stores. Both are big competitors, but Gorog claims that neither has cut into Roxio's market share.

CNET News.com recently spoke with Gorog about his company's radical bet on digital music and his potentially conflicted relationship with Microsoft.

Q: Your decision to sell your old business in favor of Napster was a big one. What helped make the final decision?
A: Well, this move enables us to focus 100 percent on the online music space, which is the primary strategic focus for our company. Obviously, it's an area that has had explosive growth, and is expected to be a multibillion-dollar industry over the next handful of years. We have secured a very prominent position in the early development of the space, and we wanted to make sure that we had the opportunity to bring 100 percent of our focus to this.

Had this been the idea ever since buying the Napster name?
I wouldn't say it was a plan that began to gel 18 months ago. But it is certainly something that has been on our minds for the last year or so. The online music sector is growing fast, the optical recording sector for consumers has really begun to mature, and growth has slowed down considerably.

Were there any specific events that tipped the scale--that made you decide to get out of the old business and into the new?
No, there wasn't any event that was a catalyst. It was the recognition that a small company has to be laser-focused on its primary objective, and our company's primary objective is to remain very dominant in digital media.

Right now, you've got Sony as a competitor, and Apple is dominating the space. You've still got Virgin, you've still got Microsoft, you've still got a lot of potentially very powerful brands coming into this space. Is that worrisome to you?
Well, I'd like to first address one of the comments you made--that Apple is dominating the space. Currently, Apple is not even in the subscription business. It's not even on the playing field yet. I think that's very significant and very important for anyone following this space to remember.

Currently, Apple is not even in the subscription business. It's not even on the playing field yet.
As to the others entering the space--obviously, it's a very competitive space, because we are all in the process of trying to get a piece of a $40 billion business. The global record industry is approximately $40 billion, and virtually everyone who follows the space has a recognition that all of that money could be moving online. This is why it is attracting major players like Wal-Mart, like Microsoft. In one sense, I think that it really validates why we as a company made the decision to double down and be serious about this opportunity.

Secondly, as to our competitive position, one of the things I think that is very noticeable is that Sony and Wal-Mart--obviously two massive global organizations--have both entered the online music space in the last few months, and our market share, as reported weekly by Nielsen SoundScan, has not declined an inch.

That's market share of downloads, or market share of revenue?
Market share of downloads, because there is no market share report on revenue.

Our market share of downloads, since Wal-Mart and Sony entered, has not declined at all. We think that's very significant, and it makes us feel very confident that we have secured a very defensible position with the biggest brand in the industry.

What is your market share right now?
In downloads, Apple claims to have 70 percent. We have approximately 15 percent. That leaves about 15 percent to all the other players.

You said margins on subscription services are about 40 percent, compared with just 10 percent on downloads. Is that correct?
Right.

How do you see those margins evolving, and why?
We think that the margins for downloads and subscriptions will be stable. We think that it is incumbent on us as a company to grow the top line as aggressively and as fast as possible so that we can get into a profitable position. We also are doing things that are helping add higher-margin products to our portfolio.

What kind of products would those be?
We have a number of things in development--but nothing that we're publicly disclosing.

You said you do want to keep focused on the music space, as opposed to other downloadable subscription content, however.
Right now, we're going to stay focused on music. Clearly, with the Napster brand, it gives us the opportunity to be electronic distributors of motion pictures, spoken work, electronic games, etc., all of which are very likely on our road map. But our concentration right now is doing an exceptional job in music.

There's been a big tussle over technology and interoperability. You've said you're comfortable using Windows Media, because it's the most widely used player. Do you believe there needs to be more interoperability, or is the market OK as is?
I think that it is certainly bad for consumers that Apple has not opened up its platform with the iPod to other services. I think that it's also bad for Apple and the iPod that they are trapped in the very limited experience that iTunes brings.

I think that a strategy like that will ultimately catch up with Apple, if they continue to cloister their customers in an environment that is not competitive and limits choice. In the meantime, I think that it has stunted the growth of other services in their early days to not have access to what is currently the most popular player on the market.

I am highly confident in our decision to build all of our technology around Microsoft Windows.
All of that said, I am highly confident in our decision to build all of our technology around Microsoft Windows. That has also really been borne out by conversations we've had throughout the industry. For example, at a major U.S. retailer, I was told by the head of merchandising that they expect Apple's market share to be less than 10 percent within 24 months. That's very consistent with what I think that a lot of people feel--that as this consumer opportunity moves to mass adoption, people want choice.

Do you have any concern, as a Microsoft technology customer, that Microsoft is now becoming a competitor to you on the store front?
We're no more concerned about the entry of MSN than we were about the entry of Wal-Mart or the entry of Sony. We take all of these competitors very seriously, but we wouldn't rate the level of threat higher from the MSN service.

You've been one of the biggest backers of Microsoft's Janus technology, which allows the subscription-based downloads to be played on some portable devices. Do you see that being a large part of your business in the next 12 months?
We just returned from doing focus groups, and it validated what we all intuitively knew--that portable subscription-based music really looms as being the potential killer app for digital music. We already know that the experience of a music subscription is infinitely better than a download store.

Any users of a subscription service would tell you that the only thing missing is the opportunity to move those tracks onto their MP3 player. In our recent focus groups, our individuals polled overwhelmingly identified the portable subscription content as the No. 1 thing they'd like to see.

So you do indeed think that Janus will be a large part of your business fairly soon?
Yes. I think that, certainly a year from now or a year from the release of the Janus technology, that the lion's share of our subscribers will be using portable subscriptions. It will be very important to us.  

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9 comments

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Apple at 10%?
Maybe, but at the rate iPods are selling, we may never see Apple
reach that point.
Posted by iKenny (98 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Wow
How to run a company into the ground in 3
easy steps.

1. Buy that company that makes Toast.

2. Put all the money Toast has made for you
into a dumb idea.

3. When dumb idea doesn't work, throw more
money at it buy selling money maker Toast.
Voila! You're Toast!
Posted by pugscanfly (21 comments )
Link Flag
Is he for real ?
Apple created the legal music download business not with
technology - although iTunes and iPod are the best tech by a
mile - but by making a deal with the big 5 (now 4) record labels.

No one was able to do this except for Steve Jobs, now that it is a
runaway success all these wanabies, Real, MS and Napster want
an in to THE player, the iPod.

Rather than Innovate, they want to hang on to Apple's coat tails.
The simple minded take on this by all the so called "analysts" is
that Apple must be nuts not to open up the iPod, because of
Apple's oft quoted claim that the iTunes music store is simply
there to sell iPods, therefore the simple minded ones argue -
open it up and sell more iPods.

If you really believe this to be Apple's intention, I've got great
deal on bridge you may be interested in. . .

Assuming that DRM-protected media takes hold, history
indicates that one format will dominate the industry.
Establishing a de facto standard format for DRM audio, at ten
cents a song on 100 million songs is nice; sell a couple of billion
songs, and youre talking about a serious cash cow.

As to subscription services, please - not even the Napster guy
can believe this to be a viable business plan. No one wants this -
sure, you can scare a few Universities into signing up, but the
public ain't gonna go for it.

I reckon Napster may survive slightly longer than Real Networks,
but they are both doomed. Kinda reminds me of the dot com
boom.

My 0.2 Euros

Hurtle
Posted by (1 comment )
Reply Link Flag
Napster Won't Make It...
I personally do not think that Napster will make it as long as the Apple, Sony and Microsoft music stores will.

Yes, Napster is a well known name, but within a few years no one will be able to tell you what Napster was. Unlike with Apple, Sony and Microsoft, Napster is not owned by a big name company, so they are having to work solo, which I do not think they will be able to do at a $.99 song fee.

The only way Napster will be able to make it is if it is purchased by a Fortune 500 corporation.
Posted by PCCRomeo (432 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Apple Doomed to Failure?
Right now im listening to iTunes on all the stereos in my home
with airport express and charging my ipod while reading about
Gorogs ridiculous endeavour.The iTunes music
format is not limiting and the ipod is by far the best digital
music player of all time. The ipod is the most popular by far
because it is the best whereas contrary to Chris Gorogs belief
that Realplayer is the best because of its popularity. Real player
is popular because it comes with windows! Apples music store is
the most popular and holds 70% marketshare yet is barely
profitable how does Gorog plan on running an startup company
on this format when its product cant even be used on the most
popular player. Apple doomed to failure in its musical
endeavours, I doubt it, Chris Gorog doomed to failure in his
mediocre copy cat attempt in a market full of highly competitive
players id bet my 99 cents on it.
Posted by atmca (11 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Apple Doomed to Failure?
Right now im listening to iTunes on all the stereos in my home
with airport express and charging my ipod while reading about
Gorogs ridiculous endeavour.The iTunes music
format is not limiting and the ipod is by far the best digital
music player of all time. The ipod is the most popular by far
because it is the best whereas contrary to Chris Gorogs belief
that Realplayer is the best because of its popularity. Real player
is popular because it comes with windows! Apples music store is
the most popular and holds 70% marketshare yet is barely
profitable how does Gorog plan on running an startup company
on this format when its product cant even be used on the most
popular player. Apple doomed to failure in its musical
endeavours, I doubt it, Chris Gorog doomed to failure in his
mediocre copy cat attempt in a market full of highly competitive
players id bet my 99 cents on it.
Posted by atmca (11 comments )
Reply Link Flag
It's the best strategy he has
I think Gorog made the best decision for Roxio when he moved the company entirely to Napster. Roxio was a sinking ship, and if he had not done that, his company would be bankrupt by now.

The problem is, Napster isn't exactly a good thing to base on. Just last week Apple opened the iTunes music store in the European Union. Napster is still stuck in North America, I think.

Nevertheless, it doesn't take a lot to tip the balance. (e.g. a grain of rice) I bet the iPod was designed by 1 genius working in Apple's basement. Who knows, maybe Napster has their genius working in their basement.
Posted by dimasy (10 comments )
Reply Link Flag
So, what am I supposed to think?
The creator of my cd burner's software is at the head of one of the biggest catalysts of the whole MP3 leagal crap?!

Seems to me that this all just validates what I have been saying.....

These people are making multi-billion dollar deals and are being propped up as "big responsible businesses" to be respected. Meanwhile, the things that these people created are resulting in a misconception that the population is commiting an illegal act and should be sued and imprisoned.

Do you really expect me to believe that napster was just about downloading music? Or for that matter, KaZaa and all the rest? The music is only what you see on the surface.

CNET....How can you say that this man is the biggest believer in digital music? I think it is pretty safe to say that we are all BIG believers.

I will never use Napster, or Kazaa, Grokster, Bearshare, Morpheus, etc. These things are ALL CRAP. PAY FOR NAPSTER! HA!

If Napster=Roxio then that should tell you something about the hardware companies. How many Sony (owned by TimeWarner) cd burners use the Roxio software to make cd copies of MP3 music downloaded off the net that TimeWarner Music is in lawsuits with people for using?

You people think it is about Apple vs. Microsoft? These people are making money hand over fist on screwing everyone coming and going.

The ONLY way for the people to win is to NOT use any of it. Although, I know that will not happen. Don't you all get it? No matter what you do (illegal or legal), you are backed into a corner with absolutely no choice and no ability to even look as if you have any free will. They even are getting the federal government on their side to insure they have control over you.

The internet was (I thought) supposed to be a wonderfull thing for us all. It looks as if the world wide web is truely being held in a death grip and is losing consciousness.
Posted by Prndll (382 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Who is Chris Gorog?
If Chris Gorog is the guy who ran a company
named ITC, then people should delve into his
background, talk to his former staff, and
determine his history before judging him and
his motives. I've done that, and it doesn't
inspire confidence. But then, I'm biased. My
ex-wife used to work for him over a dozen
years ago.

Besides, I'm a huge proponent of the iPod,
and can't imagine that Napster can become a
force in the industry under Chris' direction. I
wish them luck, and will jump on the
bandwagon if it starts to roll, but I don't have
much confidence in that.

By the way, Chris, if you are reading this, how
are your kids? They must be grown up by
now...

Adam Lieblein
Posted by (1 comment )
Reply Link Flag
 

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