November 29, 2004 2:27 PM PST

Are PC makers poised for major hit?

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may retreat into the regional markets that gave them their start. Some companies--namely IBM or HP--might spin off their PC businesses and focus elsewhere, Gartner said.

But HP has no such plans, a company executive said.

"Our business is stronger than ever," said Deb Nelson, vice president of HP's Personal Systems Group, its PC business. "It's a critical part of our broad portfolio of products and services. We're in it for the long haul."

IBM executives have said the same of their company.

"The bottom line here is that the vendor landscape will look very different in the next couple of years," said Leslie Fiering, an analyst with Gartner.

There's still time for PC makers to batten down their hatches and enact cost cuts and other measures that will help them ride out a storm of slow growth and price competition, she said.

"The vendor landscape will look very different in the next couple of years."
--Leslie Fiering, Gartner analyst

For its part, Dell--which can use its relatively low operating costs to reduce prices and still profit--is in the best position for weathering a downturn in demand, Fiering said. The company did so between 2000 and 2002.

A Dell representative declined to comment.

Aside from stealing market share from competitors, the best opportunity for boosting shipments will lie in emerging markets, including China and India, according to Gartner. Unit shipment growth rates will remain relatively high in these markets during 2006 to 2008, Gartner predicts. The situation could help local companies gain more presence on the global stage and hinder larger multinationals, which tend to have a smaller presence in the regions.

Gartner isn't alone in predicting slower PC market growth in the 2006 to 2008 time frame. During September, IDC lowered its forecast for unit shipment growth in 2005 and warned of even slower, single-digit growth rates in coming years.

"It looks like the unit growth from 2006 to 2008 is going to be in the 8 percent range...driven by nondeveloped markets and a steady replacement market in the developed world," Roger Kay, an analyst with IDC, said.

The story is that PC market is maturing and thus moving beyond the stage of massive growth, Kay said.

"Effectively, the world has been explored and there's not a lot of new markets out there," he said. The "market could stabilize in the numbers we're talking about now--150 million to 200 million units per year."

IDC's 2004's PC unit shipment forecast is for shipments of 176.5 million, up 14 percent from 2003.

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desktop sales predictions
I read on MSDN that longhorn will need more powerful computers to make it run effectivly.

I thought that longhorn would be released by
Microsoft just in time to spur another sales
spike in desktops.
Posted by (2 comments )
Reply Link Flag
desktop sales predictions
I read on MSDN that longhorn will need more powerful computers to make it run effectivly.

I thought that longhorn would be released by
Microsoft just in time to spur another sales
spike in desktops.
Posted by (2 comments )
Reply Link Flag
My prediction
IBM will spin off it's PC line (Netvista, Intellistation, and Thinkcentre) and will keep it's Thinkpad laptops and maybe keep the Intellistation. HP will merge it's consumer Pavilon and Presario lines into one and keep it's business Deskpro. Gateway will only be selling Emachines. Dell will still be selling Dimension and Optiplex. The rest of major manufactures will be gone (bought or bankrupt) except for the enthusiasts market like Alienware, Velocity PC, Falcon Northwest. IBM and HP don't need to sell PCs. They make more on services and other equipment. Anyways, That's my prediction!
Posted by ledzep75 (53 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Probably
You're probably right on most counts. I actually believe Apple
might still be around, simply because they have a very loyal fan
base, and their demise has been predicted for over a decade
now, with nothing major really happening. The others rely on
Windows, but since Apple has their own OS, their fate lies much
more with them than the other manufacturers.
Posted by iKenny (98 comments )
Link Flag
My prediction
IBM will spin off it's PC line (Netvista, Intellistation, and Thinkcentre) and will keep it's Thinkpad laptops and maybe keep the Intellistation. HP will merge it's consumer Pavilon and Presario lines into one and keep it's business Deskpro. Gateway will only be selling Emachines. Dell will still be selling Dimension and Optiplex. The rest of major manufactures will be gone (bought or bankrupt) except for the enthusiasts market like Alienware, Velocity PC, Falcon Northwest. IBM and HP don't need to sell PCs. They make more on services and other equipment. Anyways, That's my prediction!
Posted by ledzep75 (53 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Probably
You're probably right on most counts. I actually believe Apple
might still be around, simply because they have a very loyal fan
base, and their demise has been predicted for over a decade
now, with nothing major really happening. The others rely on
Windows, but since Apple has their own OS, their fate lies much
more with them than the other manufacturers.
Posted by iKenny (98 comments )
Link Flag
Which one is right?
"world's top three manufacturers"
Is word "manufactureres" right to use?Except IBM other are not doing anything else but "assemle computer hardware" just like me and many other small builders...Don't recall that Dell is manufacturing anything themself?Maybe mouspads or what.
Well more of these companies get out of building computers will leave more work for us,smaller guys....So I welcome change anyday.
Posted by (32 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Definition of manufacturing
Dell, for the most part, purchases computer components and assembles them at their manufacturing facility. I think that is pretty well described in #1 and #2 below.

The question would be: "What does 'suitable for use' refer to?" Give me a video card and I can use it. That doesnt hold true for the average consumer. In their case, they need that card installed into a pc (along with the MB, proc, etc) in order for it to be 'suitable for use'. Therefore, Dell assembling a PC is considered manufacturing.

That is just my opinion, though.

-----
Main Entry: 2manufacture
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): -tured; man·u·fac·tur·ing /-'fak-ch&-ri[ng], -'fak-shri[ng]/
transitive senses
1 : to make into a product suitable for use
2 a : to make from raw materials by hand or by machinery b : to produce according to an organized plan and with division of labor
3 : INVENT, FABRICATE
4 : to produce as if by manufacturing : CREATE <writers who manufacture stories for television>
intransitive senses : to engage in manufacture
- manufacturing noun
Posted by ProjectGSX (27 comments )
Link Flag
Which one is right?
"world's top three manufacturers"
Is word "manufactureres" right to use?Except IBM other are not doing anything else but "assemle computer hardware" just like me and many other small builders...Don't recall that Dell is manufacturing anything themself?Maybe mouspads or what.
Well more of these companies get out of building computers will leave more work for us,smaller guys....So I welcome change anyday.
Posted by (32 comments )
Reply Link Flag
Definition of manufacturing
Dell, for the most part, purchases computer components and assembles them at their manufacturing facility. I think that is pretty well described in #1 and #2 below.

The question would be: "What does 'suitable for use' refer to?" Give me a video card and I can use it. That doesnt hold true for the average consumer. In their case, they need that card installed into a pc (along with the MB, proc, etc) in order for it to be 'suitable for use'. Therefore, Dell assembling a PC is considered manufacturing.

That is just my opinion, though.

-----
Main Entry: 2manufacture
Function: verb
Inflected Form(s): -tured; man·u·fac·tur·ing /-'fak-ch&-ri[ng], -'fak-shri[ng]/
transitive senses
1 : to make into a product suitable for use
2 a : to make from raw materials by hand or by machinery b : to produce according to an organized plan and with division of labor
3 : INVENT, FABRICATE
4 : to produce as if by manufacturing : CREATE <writers who manufacture stories for television>
intransitive senses : to engage in manufacture
- manufacturing noun
Posted by ProjectGSX (27 comments )
Link Flag
PC's depreciate quite rapidly.
There will always be an ongoing market for PC's as they depreciate quite rapidly. Due to rapid advancement in technology and software developments. The average life span of a PC is estimated to be 2.5 years.

So can you imagine millions of people changing over their systems every two and a half years? This leaves alot of breathing space for PC vendors to make vast amounts of revenue in PC sales each year.

Consequently, the growing trend within the PC market today is gearing towards laptops. Laptops are dominating the market as people like the mobility of the product and in most cases they carry the same specifications as the desktops that are currently on the market.



Orane Franklin
Orane Productions Multimedia
[http://www.oraneproductions.com|http://www.oraneproductions.com]
Posted by Orane Productions (12 comments )
Reply Link Flag
PC's depreciate quite rapidly.
There will always be an ongoing market for PC's as they depreciate quite rapidly. Due to rapid advancement in technology and software developments. The average life span of a PC is estimated to be 2.5 years.

So can you imagine millions of people changing over their systems every two and a half years? This leaves alot of breathing space for PC vendors to make vast amounts of revenue in PC sales each year.

Consequently, the growing trend within the PC market today is gearing towards laptops. Laptops are dominating the market as people like the mobility of the product and in most cases they carry the same specifications as the desktops that are currently on the market.



Orane Franklin
Orane Productions Multimedia
[http://www.oraneproductions.com|http://www.oraneproductions.com]
Posted by Orane Productions (12 comments )
Reply Link Flag
This Couldn't Happen
Does everybody buy their computer at the exact same time? No,
that would be stupid. While some people may tend to buy their
computers at around the same time, you cannot generalize and
say that PC makers will go bankrupt just because everybody
bought their computer at the same time.
Posted by (3 comments )
Reply Link Flag
This Couldn't Happen
Does everybody buy their computer at the exact same time? No,
that would be stupid. While some people may tend to buy their
computers at around the same time, you cannot generalize and
say that PC makers will go bankrupt just because everybody
bought their computer at the same time.
Posted by (3 comments )
Reply Link Flag
 

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