Comments on: Can anything save HD DVD?

Not likely, but there's a very slim chance that the rapidly decreasing cost of HD DVD could lure consumers to buy equipment.

[natejohnstone]

There Can Be Only One

There can be one and only one HD optical disc format on the market...period.

The studios are finally starting to understand that having 2 formats available (even if the sales are 6:1 like they are now) causes too much CONSUMER CONFUSION. Most consumers don't read tech sites or blogs. They simply want something that is easy and not too expensive. They just want to push play.

The current landscape is very confusing and involves much risk. Most consumers (both according to polls as well as sales statistics) have decided to "wait and see" before jumping into the HD disc game. The consumers DID decide--they decided that they want someone else to decide.

HD-DVD will NO LONGER BE SOLD in one year or less. It cannot be. If HD-DVD is still being sold in Best Buy and Walmart, then the average consumer will be confused as to what format to buy, and will therefore not buy any format. This is the current scenario, and in this reality the studios make no money, the retailers make no money, and the consumers who want the content have too little and pay too much for it.

There can be only one. The other must completely disappear accept for places like Amazon where consumer confusion isn't quite as big of an issue. Last time the studios knew this ahead of time (wanting to avoid the Betamax vs. VHS fiasco) and chose DVD over DivX BEFORE it went to the consumers, so that there was no confusion, simply the decision of whether or not to upgrade. This time things went poorly as the mega corporations fought it out. But now the war will end because the studios realize that in order to make money off this, they need people to start adopting one of the formats--which means eliminating risk and confusion. The attachment rate of Blu-ray will be higher/faster than it was for DVD because Blu-ray players are fully backwards compatible with DVDs (which is what the manufacturers SHOULD be touting right now, but aren't).

The bright side to this war, however, is that it brought a lot of attention to HD media and drove the prices down much more quickly than we saw when DVD was introduced. Now the Blu-ray has put out $300 players, it wont' be able to take them back once HD-DVD throws in the towel, and that's good for the middle adopters. And of course prices will go down as more people buy into Blu-ray as well.

[Scott Gardener]

Now is the time of The Gathering...

I agree on the point of confusion among consumers, as I have witnessed it personally.

Non-techies can have a tough time with things that seem straightforward to us. It's bad enough for a lot of people keeping remote controls straight. For most people, having a DVD player at least has the simplicity of one device that plays movies on disc-shaped objects.

Having one upgraded disc-shaped object adds some confusion, but if one can replace the DVD player with, say, a Blu-Ray player, and that device still plays DVDs (and for that matter CDs), then they're happy. But, having two different competing formats is brain-blowing. Add to it that "HD-DVD" phonetically is similar to "DVD" but is not the same adds to the confusion.

A lot of people don't grasp the significance of high definition. They see the new discs simply as "oh bother; now I'll have to start over and re-buy all my movies." A lot of people, even those who own HDTVs, think "high definition" means a wider screen. You can tell them about 720p, 1080i, and the ever greater 1080p, but it doesn't sink in until you compare it to the megapixels of digital cameras.

Note that it's not that these people are necessarily stupid, either. It's just that that's not where they want to invest a ton of extra brain cells. To their credit, I don't spend hours on end reading about how my car works, even though I know there are cultures dedicated to rebuilding engines and modifying what goes on under the hood. Like most people, I just get in it and drive.

No one so far seems to bring up the point that one can own both an HD-DVD player and a Blu-Ray player. (I do; for HD-DVD, I have the popular HD-A2. Sure, it lacks 1080p support, but it was darned cheap. I also have the most popular Blu-Ray player on the market, the Sony PS3, popular because of some of its "other features," though its included "remote" looks suspiciously a lot like a game controller.)

Yes, right now most people aren't going to want to spend that kind of money. But, in a year or two, with prices dropping--how many people do you know who own more than one DVD player?

Theoretically, there's no reason the two formats couldn't coexist. They won't, because of the public's need for simplicity. It's not even about money; it's about being able to buy a movie, stick it in a player, and without having to learn about laser wavelengths, content protection schemes, or resolution settings, watching the movie. Even now, people are buying the wrong disc for the wrong player, and that will bring out the mobs and pitchforks pretty quickly.

If most people were nerds, then we'd probably have eight or nine different formats out there, and we'd have four or five players that collectively handled every one of them. (Technically, there are at least that many, if not more, but how many HD-VMD players have you ever actually seen anywhere?) But, most people don't want to learn (and shouldn't have to learn) how to manage all of them.

[Yll351]

More hyperbole

QUOTE:
"Blu-ray was always the better quality and this fact is not debatable."

Translation:
"I made up my mind...now let me make up yours too!"

[jev55]

Microsoft and HD DVD

Yes, Microsoft will have to go to some form of HD content with their next
gaming system. But just because HD DVD is dying doesn't mean that
Microsoft will choose Blueray for their next format. Many companies in the
past have picked proprietary formats to use for their game media. Also
Microsoft could still use HD DVD for their next gaming system and change
things entirely. The Xbox 360 released a year earlier than the PS3 and thus
Microsoft will probably be releasing a system sooner than Sony. And you
should note that the 360 has outsold the PS3 by quite a bit. As well as the
fact that Microsoft could choose to pull a Nintendo and not have their gaming
console play movies at all. (It is sold to play games on........) And yet another
facture to figure in is flash memory and broadband internet service. There
isn't anything that says our next format could simply be downloading 1080p
content to a set top box from a provider. Or that movies or games would
come on 32gb flash discs. The price of high speed internet and flash memory
could completly change the way storage is used in the next 4 years. Think
about it, it isn't as far fetched as it sounds.

[HI-Def88]

The fact remains in sales.

The Ps2 pushed DVD over the PS3 now with blue ray 1.2 million Ps3 were sold over the past month and a half.I have a 360 but I was not going to pay 299 for a add on.This week since the Warner announcement Blue Ray titles have sky rocketed look at nelsons numbers.Gamers choose what format we have,thats a no brainier if the 360 1st came out with a HDDVD drive in it it would have beat out the PS3,now the 360 is almost 3 years old and MS is going to announce the next 360 probably, the end of the year.So I am first and foremost a AV enthusiasts,and a big HD gamer,I love both the 360 and PS3 but Sony beat Ms to the punch.

[neATL]

Regular DVD sales is still king.

"1.2 million Ps3 were sold over the past month and a half"

how many of those 1.2mil own a HDTV set? I'm willing to bet less than half. Majority of the people I know who own a PS3 play it on a CRT or at best a 720p set. BluRay isn't important to them at all. They still watch DVDs. DVD is still out selling BluRay by a very large margin. Owning a (PS3)BluRay player isn't even half of the battle. Buying a TV to really enjoy BluRay is the biggest fight.

[JonTitor]

its still a great deal

you can get like 7 good movies with the $130 player. That's like getting an HD-DVD (and upconverting DVD) player for free

[Mikeybabes]

Of course HD-DVD can be saved ...

It just needs to repackage itself as a low-cost backup storage medium. In terms of a movie medium however, it's days are truly numbered. Believe it or not you need movie companies on your side when you launch a movie medium. HD-DVD rested on their sanctimonious loft, we are high and mighty, cheaper, have big brother MS on our side, as well as the masses - who cares about the movie companies.
Here's where they got it wrong:
1. Security - if only in terms of perceived security BR won out. As a result a number of movie companies were sold instantly.
2. Quality - again if only perceived, higher storage, higher bit-rate encoding. Again more movie companies were sold.
3. Getting the machine out - oh wouldn't this be a different story if MS put the HD-DVD in Xboxes by default. I mean we are talking slam dunk. And now we are talking about the final waverers like Warner.
As for the article from Toms Hardware listed below, they are wholly irresponsible to the point where they seeem paid for. Most non techies reading that are going to get the impression that it is still a 50-50 race. As a result they will look solely at costs, and as a result they will end up wasting their money on the next beta-max. When their obsolete machine packs in they are left with a pile of coasters packaged in nice boxes. Totally irresponsible.

[aggiedoc]

PS3 Is The Clincher For Me

I'm 60 years old but 30 years ago I was a first adopter with CDs and then later with DVD. I can't keep pace with the rate of technology improvement and have the "latest and best" of everything, but I wanted a resolution to the HD wars because I collect DVDs and was still buying them in standard format instead of picking a side in the HD war.

I chose VHS over Beta because you could get 4 hour tapes and beta 'maxed' out at 3 (at the time). Switching from tape to DVD was a no-brainer because I could already see my tapes were deteriorating back when DVD first appeared. That does not happen to DVD, and yes I can and did record movies onto DVD with home recorders.

The need to migrate to a HD format was not so acute. My 60" HD big screen does a pretty good job of upscaling DVDs on it's own. I could afford to wait until one side won the Hi Def conflict because I own at least 10 DVD players and my collection is compatible with them all.

What made me jump on the Blu-Ray bandwagon was the PS3. It plays games and I actually have Rock Band...but have yet to open the box it's hardware came in because I'm still struggling to master MotorStorm and at age 60 the music on RockBand contains only a small percentage of my preferred tunes. Yet, the PS3 was something my wife and I agreed to buy because it streams media to our stereo and video to the TV, has a 80GB hard drive that I can off-load a few of my 28,000 mp3s to AND plays High Def format DVDs. Now I have to decide which movies I will buy in Blu-Ray and which in DVD. Only the PS3 will play the Blu-Ray discs.

In case you don't remember (or weren't born yet) the purchase of commercially recorded movies on video tape used to be a pretty expensive process. Blank VHS tapes originally cost $20 each and when VHS won the format wars the average comercial tape cost $60-80 for one movie (especially if it required 2 cassettes). Things had not improved THAT much when the DVD made movies available for about $20. This fact alone brought movie purchase into the main stream and drove VHS tape into history. I'm sure rental stores were grateful for a smaller, hardier, cheaper medium for their stock too.

The advantages of Hi-Def DVD (whether Blu-Ray or HD-DVD) are nowhere near as clear cut. The HD formats cost more than regular DVDs but have similar attributes in size and longivity. Many people will feel that regular DVDs that can be played on a $20 DVD player (!!) are good enough. I suspect no HD format will replace regular DVDs completely.

For those who say streaming video will eliminate physical media, I suggest it will take a long time. Until the majority of people have high speed internet and see the advantages of paying to have it, universal streaming will be elusive. AND as it begins to take over, costs for internet will be stratified according to usage. Warner cable is already planning this and it may act as a throttle, if not a choke-chain on the future of streaming media.

[Tec Consumer]

I think MS is just used HDVD to pressure Sony

That's it. MS has to bank to set up a false format war that it would never win -- just to put pressure on Sony. Why else would the HDVD player be a separate attachment for 360 that no one actually buys? And now MS is hinting at adding a Blue Ray attachment instead?

Good work MS.

Seems like it kept the PS3 sales at bay for quite some time. More 360's = more titles. Plus, the BR discs are about 4 times more gigabytes than the discs for 360 -- so the developers who make the games for PS3 have to do somewhere like 3 or 4 times more work to make a game that'll retail for the same price as the DX9 games for 360 that they've been pumping out for years. With way more 360s out there it makes it near impossible for PS3 to get good games. That's why 360 is where it's at -- even though it is actually LAST GEN gaming.

The format war most likely AIN'T about movies!

[AdamJ34]

Wow...you don't know what you're talking about

While I don't disagree with the "false format war" idea your comments about PS3 developers having to do 3-4 times more work because the blu-ray discs hold more is not correct. Just because the discs hold more doesn't mean that the developers have to fill up the space. If anything, the extra space gives the PS3 an advantage because the developers don't have to worry about space limitations and compressing video, audio, textures, etc.

Also, I hope you're joking about 360 being a last gen system. That is laughable...

[Ultimo01]

What's Going to Happen to Those Already Out

As the title suggests and the article's story, what is going to happen to those movies that are already on the shelves of stores everywhere. I mean it will cost millions of dollars to get the disks off the shelves, put the movies onto Blu-Ray, and market them back out onto shelves.

I don't see this working out for those movies that are already exclusive to HD-DVD, but it would be a expensive in time, effort, and currency to do the switch. An idea like trying to sell them to a highly doomed format would make many angry consumers when they find out they spent too much on worthless junk.

Also let's not forget the HD-DVD players that would be in the same pit that the movies they play are in, so this could actually be one of the worst losses of money since Beta-Max vs VHS or maybe even earlier.

I say that if HD-DVD is going to lose those companies better pull out sooner and surrender than waste money on technology that won't soar.

[Wolfie2k5]

No... This will be WORSE than the Betamax...

At least with Betamax decks, more often than not, you could still use it - even if NO studio was releasing content for it.

You see, Beta, like VHS still had the ability to RECORD programming. HD DVD can't even do that.

[hazydave]

Nothing SHOULD save HD-DVD

Look... the format war is something the media companies engage in, and they see benefit in it, to themselves, as they fight over the eventual profits from patent portfolios. But the war benefits no consumer, and we're far better off with one of these blue laser DVD formats dead and buried.

Yes, it blows to be an HD-DVD early adopter if they're the losing format, but that's life. Some of us were wise enough to not choose sides in a format war until the shooting was over. Like me.. I'm a perfect candidate for early adopter status; I have two HDV camcorders, I'm on my second HDTV, I have a dual-tuner HD PVR, I have a red-laser HD capable DVD player (IOData AVel Linkplayer2) for displaying my own HD video, etc. If there was a single format, I would probably have two or three players by now, and a writer in my PC.

But I don't have any blue-laser stuff, because of the format war. This is retarding the adoption of HD discs, and if there's no winner, the marketplace may move on to downloads or something else (really not practical for 5-10 years, despite what the HDD salesmen tell you).

I didn't pick a side, I didn't really care who won the format war. But if the everyone thinks Blu-Ray is the winner, then let it frickin' win and lets get on with it. Bury HD-DVD and let Toshiba worry about it... no one else in the CE market even cares about HD-DVD.

[lil-yankee]

Microsoft was just trying to make up for a mistake

All this non-sense and consumer confusion was caused by a desperate company called microsoft. They have never cared about the HD formats and less do they apparently care about their consumers. All they wanted was to create this confusion that caused so many people not to buy a ps3 and to make life a little tougher for companies like sony. Why? simple, they were not ready to release a format but didn't want sony to get the piece of that pie so easily. The movie business is worth billions more than the gaming industry, they could not affort to miss taking a piece now. They just wanted people to get so confused so that it would lead to frustration and then do one of two things. Dont buy any HD at all or simply grab something else that its easier and there is no war and chances involved. They are just working on new down loadable movies that they really are interested in. If they left SONY all alone in the market, they would have done way better with the ps3 and would have a format standardized for movies way faster than now. The only loosers in this greedy war were us the consumers. "I have a ps3 so I guess I at lest get to say that so far Im in the safe side", but how about the HD-DVD adopters? those that dont read like us, those that want the cheapest and esiest (cheapest) to use. Well, thats their problem. Microsoft doesnt' really care about them, they only see the green in their pockets. They have slowed down the mass adoption of HD movies at their own benefit. I just hope the two remaining ***** that are still in the HD-DVD camp (***** because they are like *****, they stay for money)find their way in to Blue-Ray and get this over with. And talking about downloading movies in the internet, I dont think so. They are definitively not going to allow you to burn that disc in to dvd's as many times as you want. I dont think people are going to be wanting to wath movies only on their pc or streaming them from apple tv or a ps3. Somethign that you could take with you to your friends house and watch it is way more practical than having just a "movie at home". I dont know, my opinion is that the downloading stuff is not for this time. It is going to require a fast (I mean really fast) internet connection. It requires some type of streamer to be connected to the tv and You cant' carry it arround. I think some people would buy it but it wont' be a mass market appeal, its too expensive right now. Anyways, hope you guys didnt' get one of those HD-DVD blunts and got a Blue-Ray player.

[hazydave]

Not just PS3

You're spot on about Microsoft.. but it wasn't just fear of the PS3, but fear of ANY actual computing platform taking hold in the livingroom that's not Microsoft based. The DVD player wasn't a big threat, since it's not really a general purpose computer. But look at Blu-Ray... every player runs BD-Java. MS fought to keep MHP out of standardization in the ATSC specification (another Java-in-the-livingroom idea), and they were not about to let Sony wander in there unopposed.

And look again at HD-DVD... every HD-DVD player is also a Windows CE machine. Toshiba didn't cook up bad tech, but it was redundant, and they couldn't go it totally alone. Microsoft, however, is usually a strong ally, at least until they turn on you.

But even that hasn't helped HD-DVD, and this was the first observation that HD-DVD was already losing before the Warner announcement: other than the two dual-mode players (Samsung and LG), every single HD-DVD player in the marketplace comes from Toshiba (the RCA models are rebadged Toshiba units). Meanwhile, practically everyone else in the consumer electronics business is doing Blu-Ray.

Next thing to look at: consumer video. Last year, DVD-R camcorders overtook miniDV as the consumer format of choice. And while 8cm DVD-R kind of stinks as a video format, consumers love the ease of playback. 8cm Blu-Ray can be a pretty nice video format. So would HD-DVD, but look at the camcorder market... every major camcorder maker is either uncomitted (Canon) or in the Blu-Ray camp (Sony, Panasonic, JVC, Sharp, Samsung, Hitachi, etc). Toshiba has virtually no presence in the camcorder market... meanwhile, Sony makes 80%+ of the DVD camcorders.

So really, it hasn't even been that close. Toshiba has the one advantage Blu-Ray doesn't have.. with a closed market, they can go in, like a games machine, and sell the hardware below cost, making it up on software royalties. But that's unsustainable without a big boost in software sales, and it'll pretty much guarantee no other CE companies will make HD-DVD players. That's Toshiba's last card to play (Microsoft might have others, but they're very spendy), and it looks like they are THAT desparate. Or just blowing out stock before they give up... we'll know in six month which one it was...

[rasmasyean]

You guys are wasting your breath

I think all you are analyzing too much. It's probably a just ?hidden plot? by the big companies to sell you both formats and dual format drives, etc. while consumers are slowly migrating from the DVD age. DVD's are still used by most consumers. And they are getting so cheap that those who can afford HD equipment to play HD stuff...can afford to buy both formats of players...and future "combo" recorders for PC?s and such. Most people don't follow these "format wars" and such or really care.

[hazydave]

It's not the players...

Sure, I could afford to buy two players, or even a dual mode player. The problem is, unless I believe both formats are going to coexist into the distant future, I won't do this... and neither will most other savvy buyers.

The problem isn't the players, it's the software. Sure, I can get a HD-DVD player for as low as $100 now... that's less than I pay every month for satellite TV. A no brainer. But after I buy four titles, I will have spent that much on software. If I buy, say, 1/3 as many HD-DVDs as DVDs (let's assume Paramount and Universal have some good titles in the coming years), by the time the laser dies in my first player (probably around 3-5 years, assuming this replaces my red-laser player), I will have spend $1500-$2000 on software. Unless I believe HD-DVD (or Blu-Ray) will still be around in 3-5 year, I have to imagine that, much as the Betamax users discovered, their software became worthless as the format died.

And now, right now, I don't have 100% confidence in either one. The Warner move boosted my confidence in Blu-Ray to the point where I'm thinking "maybe in the Spring", but let's see how it goes. And I know even with Toshiba paying me, I'm not buying an HD-DVD player. If there were readily available rentals, I might consider it for HD-DVD rental, but I would never buy a disc.

Now certainly, if the market for both coexists long enough, multiplayers could very well become cheap and basically the standard, much as DVD+/-R is the standard for most DVD recorders. But that also means the market will grow much slower, since that's another couple of years to be realized, and ONLY if enough CE companies believe both formats will last. I don't think anyone really does, particularly not now.

[stanleyow]

Im looking for "natejohnstone"...!!

Hi John,

I saw your article regarding Pioneer SE-DIR800c headphone and I know that your headset were damaged. If you dont mind, could sell me your receiver instead? I have just bought this headphone, but too bad that the receiver is faulty, I dont even have a chance to test it. I would appreciate if you could consider selling me your receiver, if its still functioning. Your kind consideration will be much appreciated. Anyway, Im from MALAYSIA.

Kindly reply me thru [e-mail]

Regards
Stanley

[jandav41]

iPods, HD-DVDs etcetera

Our 'listening and watching' worlds are constantly being updated and enhanced upon, minute by minute, and I don't make THAT kind of $$$ to keep up with 'the latest fad'. Today's 'hot-shot car or motorcycle' is history by the time one can afford to buy it, so why bother? I've good stuff, which pleases my ears and eyes, and now that streaming-radio is so availble on my PC, there is less and less a need to buy a physical device. One problem with an iPod is:
on the bus or train, the journey is so noisy, that one has to 'blast out his brains' just to hear what he/she wants to listen to, specially the jerks who NEVER talk quietly on their cellphones (and it can be 'chancy' to ask them to 'tone it down').....

[mcmillan968]

Saving DVD

It SEEMS that if it costs MORE it's really wanted!!
Its like ohh it costs more it MUST be BETTER!!!
People who can't afford the best are running to Blu-Ray and the others just trying to get by are buying HD.So WHERE will the the coin fall? On its edge!!Unlike the VCR WARS I think the sellers will push to continue BOTH SYSTEMS!! WHY NOT??Double the SALES,isn't THAT the deciding FACTOR--SALES??

[badjim]

Blue Ray all the way!

Remember back when VHS and Sony's Beta format were going head to head,we all know the outcome of that war, well now it's Sony's turn to shine, long live Blue-ray!

[punterjoe]

HD-DVD is probably doomed

Because every format I buy dies shortly after I acquire it. :)
I only wish there were burners & blanks so that at least the growing number of folks with HD camcorders could save their work to view on an inexpensive HD-DVD player. Even if big media stops supporting the format, it could carve out a niche existence as a burnable HiDef medium. It seems that Sony had that capability to themselves all along.
I will miss HD-DVD. Just like I miss SACD & DVD-A. All formats that barely imagined - let alone realized - their potential.

[primetime3d]

HD a jumbled mess

HD-DVD is starting to lose ground because they employed Sony-like tactics. They were the sole manufacturer of HD-DVD standalone hardware (discounting 360 addon). Blu-ray has multiple manufacturers and a large consortium of companies and studios.

Also, get the facts straight...most of the movies produced on Blu-ray are slightly cheaper to produce because they are single layer 25gb media vs. DUAL-LAYER HD-DVD media. Very few of the HD-DVD movies are being produced on the single layer variety.

Although I love the clarity and 3-D like properties of HD, DVD's are fine with me right now. M$ has been quitely gaining traction with Xbox live and has signed up ALL the movie studios. Apple, Netflix and Amazon will try to grab a portion of the HD downloadable market. I think between DRM, multiple distribution and a myriad of formats, the customer is going to lose on this one.

[stlmapper]

But does that make BluRay the winner?

This format war has gone on long enough that we're likely getting close to yet another better format. The obvious solution is flash memory. The cost for flash memory is dropping fast because of its versatility and ubiquitousness. I don't know what the magic point will be, but let's say it's $1 for 10 GB for manufacturers. (If you think this is outrageous, just check the cost trends for memory in the last 20 years.) At that point, manufacturers can start considering putting HD movies on smaller, cheaper, more stable flash cartridges. To discourage counterfeiting, flash movie players could allow registering your movie which would download additional bonus content not included on the original flash cartridge. You could also buy your cartridge in advance to download a movie as soon as it's available.

There's not enough improvement in image quality for the average consumer to upgrade from standard DVD to BluRay. Plus, you need to buy a 1080p HDTV (not to mention the correct cables) see the difference and a lot of folks who upgraded to HDTV only have a 1080i. Yes, people will eventually upgrade. But by then, the next format will be available. Personally, I think it will be flash.

[cywillie]

Does it really make a difference?

With all the garbage on television and in the movies do we really want to see it that clear? In the bottom line we the consumers are the one that really pays in the end. First it was Beta and VHS and now it's HD and blue-ray so what's next? I'm still mad that I have to get rid of my tv by next year because the stations are changing their format on TVs. I have 3 of them to replace and that's going to cost at least 1500 big ones. Like I got that to spend. So I'm just waiting for the smoke to settle and then I'll buy what ever the main format is going to be, either HD or blue-ray.