Comments on: Has Blu-ray moved from early-adopter to early-majority phase?

New research from UK-based Futuresource Consulting suggests Blu-ray has momentum and is set to move from early adopter to early majority phase with 80 million disc sales forecast for the U.S. in 2009.

[markdoiron]

Blu-Ray players play DVDs. Once they hit the right price-point, of course Blu-Ray players will soon outsell DVD--three years seems a long ways off to me. However, this is not the same as saying the the more expensive Blu-Ray disks will outsell the DVD disks. The picture of an anamorphic DVD is really quite acceptable for most video presentations. So, if Blu-Ray disks are going to outsell DVDs, they better start providing some real value besides a better picture. Say, a season of Babylon 5 on one disk. Or they better reduce their prices quite significantly. And they better keep an eye on what's occurring in the download space--and not necessarily streaming. Netflix already proved people are willing to wait for a rental. Rent this morning with an all-day download so that the family can watch it tonight in true, uncompressed HD? That sounds like a very real competitor to ALL physical media formats. --mark d.

[M5er]

Imagine that you're trying to pitch a business case for blu-ray to replace DVD to a board of executives...

The conversation -

You:
"Blu-ray technology is awesome! You get to watch movies in stunning 1080p clarity with SOTA sound! And all you have to do is spend ~ $1500 for a 1080p display, ~$250 for a decent BD player and be willing to pay almost twice as much for a blu-ray disc as you would for a DVD! It's fantastic!"

Execs:
"So let's get this straight. You want us to spend hundreds/thousands more on this 'blu-ray' because the the picture is prettier and the sound is a little bit better than our DVDs?"

You:
"Ummmm... well.... yeah!"

Execs:
"Does it do anything else? Is it easy to develop? Currently viable as media? Cheap to manufacture? Lighter? Smaller? More resistant to scratches??"

You"
"Umm, not really, no, definitely not, absolutely not, no, no and no."

Execs:
"Then stop wasting our time."

[Raif01]

The only thing stopping Blue-Ray from killing DVD is cost. BR Player/ recorder 9 million dollars, BR Disc. 4 million dollars!

[jsnowbordr47]

Well seeing as how I'm still on a regular 480p 21in tv I don't think I'll be getting Blu-Ray any time soon. But who knows, if I see a really good deal on a good Blu-Ray player I might go for it. Till then, I'm happy with iTunes/Hulu/Xbox Marketplace. I don't even buy DVD's anymore, it's so much more convenient to just download or rent the movie online.

I didn't even buy my first real DVD player until the price was below 150 for a nice Sony player.lol So it may be a while till I plunge into the Blu-Ray ocean.lol

[menssie]

In reply to "by jsnowbordr47",
"Well seeing as how I'm still on a regular 480p 21in tv I don't think I'll be getting Blu-Ray any time soon."

If I had a 21" TV, I wouldn't be wasting my time here and posting my 2 cents about BluRay. I would not have grounds to do so because BluRay is not about 21"TV's and 480p format. Furthermore, why do you want people to know that you are such a late adopter to the existing technologies and ultra frugal and conservative with your $$'s anyway? I'm not sure why you would need to stress that?

I believe the true reasons you mention for not getting BluRay are simply because you couldn't care less about picture quality, audio soundtracks(Which really makes the movie experience, not just the cinematography), and the overall home theater experience.

Ideally, posts here about the BluRay format should be informative, accurate and helpful. Especially to those who are looking for "POSITIVE" remarks and want to learn about this great technology, especially individuals that are new to this stuff, ie. "Newbies"

[lcplwilson]

That may be so, but the cost of Blu-ray disc has got to come down also. I have a PS3 and I very rarely buy movies. I get stuff from Discovery store etc like "Planet Earth" which is beautiful - but movies???

[jmlob]

ok seriously people, if you think streaming video is the next in line you're an idiot. how many people stream video? seriously how many? ask around! most people don't even have the technology to stream video. and i guarantee blu-ray technology prices will go down faster than hdd tv service. in fact cable service, netflix, and itunes prices will probably go up in the future. i mean how long as mp3s been around and yet cds still exist...god people are dumb

[menssie]

BluRay disc prices in the $20 to $40 price range is what WILL kill the High Definition Disc technology.

The prices for New, Current and Catalog titles need to be priced below $20 if the format is to survive. Forget about the prices of the players. BD players priced $150 to $500 is a fair price to pay. The more you pay, usually indicates better performing players. Meaning better video scaling IC chips, or aesthetics of the player and/or better or more robust internal components etc... In other words, you get what you pay for. I can't see any real reason to buy a $150 or less player and hope it will perform well or last a long time without problems etc...

I own a $300 Panasonic BD Player and love it. The real problem I have is the RIDICULOUS prices of the BD DVD discs. Example, the average price of BD discs at Best Buy is $30. To me, no thanks, that's a genuine rip-off and I actually get pissed off when I see the greed involved in that kind of aggressive pricing. That is what turns the masses away from buying the format and will ultimately cause it to go obsolete.

Streaming is NOT in 1080P, nor is an up-converting anything player, nor cable nor satellite, none if these sources wil provide 1080p picture quality. That's a fact!

The ONLY way to view and appreciate 1080P is if you have a BluRay player(or HD-DVD player), and insert the BluRay/HD-DVD disc into the player and view it on a 1080P TV. It is that simple.

There is a huge difference in the picture quality as well as the Audio when comparing SD Discs to HD discs. I own a BluRay and HD-DVD player, a 1080p TV, the audio equipment and I use it daily.

It is down right beautiful if you set it up properly! I am speaking from my own personal experience, and those that say SD DVD is just as good or don't see a difference are saying so be cause they have not done a true comparison and/or don't even have all the necessary components and equipment to see it and give an honest comment and assessment of the differences! Be fair when you post...

So come on Sony and all you studios out there, lower the prices of the media and hardware(Without sacrificing the quality too much), so people can afford this stuff and start enjoying this great technology...

[ChrisCun]

Agreed on the Packaging. I have Kids, we have a DVD Player in the Cars, Motorhome, and portable variety. To replace all of these would be crazy.

If blue ray would package a DVD, Digital Copy and BD in the same package for say a buck or two more, I would be all over it.

Disney just did this with High School Musical 3, I bought the BD, where as before I would have just bought the DVD. I have three BD players in the house, but still by DVD's because of the other players.

[tstacey30]

If more studios included regular DVD's with their Blu-Rays, I would start buying them now. But I am one who is in the process of getting my library converted over to streaming media. The difference for me is this: convenience. I have threee children, two of which are old enough to use the home theater I have set up. I am waiting for the NetGear EVA 9150 to come available and have at my fingertips photos, music, home videos, and DVD conversions all upconverted to 1080p. The difference in picture quality between Blu-Ray and DVD is definitely there and I can totally appreciate it, but it is not so great to make me go spend the xtra $$$ right now. And the absence of a true "resume play" function for all discs on Blu-Ray players is a big deal for me. Again, I have kids and if they are watching a movie, need to stop for dinner or homework, then want to come back to finish, it needs to be simple to do. It 's all about convenience and quality coinciding with each other.

[Benf]

Blu Ray will die a well deserved death along with DVD although DVD will out last Blu Ray, Blu Ray are more expensive, will not play consistantly on all Blu Ray players, the blanks are very expensive and Blu Ray is only marginaly better than a propertly set up HDTV or standard DVD, Solid State is the wave of the future and I for one look forward to the death of Blu Ray and there costly accessories.

[somone_else]

why do people keep touting this BS about memory cards/SSD/etc? I think that Blu-ray will take over the player market in the next couple of years, although the DVD disc market will take a little longer to die. the important thing to note here is that any Blu-ray player will play ANY DVD. For this reason, a lot of people will consider buying a Blu-ray player the next time they need a DVD player. as the prices come down, you will see fewer people opting to save the money and will just upgrade to Blu-ray.
With what you are talking about, the studios will be worried about piracy. The high price of a BD-R disc has probably helped the studios get behind Blu-ray. with flash drives the studios will know the only thing preventing people from copying movies is the DRM. Personally I would never buy a movie on a memory card. it would be too easy to damage/lose. I would imagine that if for some reason SSD's do take off they would include a DVD player, but you still have to get the studios behind it. and they won't move to making all their titles available this way for a while. in that time I'm sure that Blu-ray will take over.
this isn't like the early days of DVD where you had to make a choice between DVD and VHS. it's also the reason why the DVD market will die more slowly than VHS. People like myself will look at the price difference between a DVD and Blu-ray disc, and somtimes we will spend the extra money, and sometimes we won't. for an example, a few weeks ago I bought zack and miri make a porno on DVD, because the best thing about kevin smith movies is the dialogue. Better picture or sound quality doesn't matter to me with this movie. On the other hand, I bought The Dark Knight on Blu-ray, because I do care about picture and sound quality with this movie.

as I side note, I do agree with people that Streaming will take over eventually, but I don't see this happening for at least 10 years. at least in North America. The lack of infrastructure for it is just too high. Blu-ray will be the last major physical format.

[wmclover]

Not one comment re Netflix or Blockbuster rentals of BD discs?? I bought a Panasonic 350 blu ray player for $250 from Best buy and could not be happier. The BD discs load as fast as the DVDs, and although the upgraded DVDs look much better than the display on my former upgradable Sony DVD, the Blu ray display on my 50" Panasonic 1080i monitor is spectacular. Although I only have an optical connection to my old AVR, the sound is noticeably better with the Blu ray discs, possibly because the sound is processed o0n the Panasonic player. I notice a paucity of new release Blu ray discs discs with the advanced Dolby 7.1 sound. Presently, Netflix charges $1 a month for access to its extensive collection of Blu ray discs, which for me is a no brainer. I stream video from my computer(Blu Ray drive) to my HDTV via a 25ft DVI to HDMI connection and my Dish HDMI connection. It is very clear but the picture is not as rich as that from my Panasonic 350. Even with my current low budget solution the picture and sound leaves the movie theater with its fuzzy picture and crappy sound in the dust. For me, the Bluray is already affordable, but $25 per disc- give me a break. I would never buy a disc at that priceor anything close to that, especially when the industry is selling so many BD discs with only Dolby Digital sound.

[wmclover]

Not one comment re Netflix or Blockbuster rentals of BD discs?? I bought a Panasonic 350 blu ray player for $250 from Best buy and could not be happier. The BD discs load as fast as the DVDs, and although the upgraded DVDs look much better than the display on my former upgradable Sony DVD, the Blu ray display on my 50" Panasonic 1080i monitor is spectacular. Although I only have an optical connection to my old AVR, the sound is noticeably better with the Blu ray discs, possibly because the sound is processed o0n the Panasonic player. I notice a paucity of new release Blu ray discs discs with the advanced Dolby 7.1 sound. Presently, Netflix charges $1 a month for access to its extensive collection of Blu ray discs, which for me is a no brainer. I stream video from my computer(Blu Ray drive) to my HDTV via a 25ft DVI to HDMI connection and my Dish HDMI connection. It is very clear but the picture is not as rich as that from my Panasonic 350. Even with my current low budget solution the picture and sound leaves the movie theater with its fuzzy picture and crappy sound in the dust. For me, the Bluray is already affordable, but $25 per disc- give me a break. I would never buy a disc at that priceor anything close to that, especially when the industry is selling so many BD discs with only Dolby Digital sound.

[Davidadks]

A few folks mentioned download limits imposed by ISP's. To say that "all ISP's" are implementing such restrictions is incorrect. It is true that several companies (mostly cable broadband providers) have begun to limit monthly download totals per customer to 100GB to 250GB, several companies have offered public statements promising not to do so. NOT every ISP is limiting usage, just to clarify a bit.

Others have made good points about download times. Even at 16Mbps, HD content can be lengthy to download, but you can usually begin watching it once a small portion of the movie file has been written to the hard drive.

I do agree, though, that at this point streaming cannot truly rival Blu-ray's image quality.

[loki2240]

A point that most people miss is that it is one thing to have fast internet speeds available with no (or high) download caps, and it is quite another to have the bandwidth to effectlively service all (or even most of) the movie rental market on a weekend night (in addition to all the other things people do online). You thought lines at Bockbuster were bad -- let's see how long it takes to download/stream a movie when a ton of people are trying to do it at the same time.

[loki2240]

I'm not sure why so many people make the argument that BD players and discs have to match what DVD prices are now (or even in the future), in order for BD to overtake (or even compete with) DVD. It should be obvious that DVD competed with (and even overtook) VHS, with player and media prices that were higher than VHS. I wouldn't put numbers or dates on it, but the status quo does suggest that BD will eventually compete with DVD.

Also, I'm not sure why so many people are pushing downloads/streaming as a replacement for optical discs. Let's see if they can take over the rental market, before we start talking about replacing optical discs, altogether.

[RRosal]

Funny how I always hear the same excuse of "I'm not getting it because its too expensive.." in the comments. I've been able to pick up boatloads of deals when Best Buy has the $14.99 sales (I got Iron Man and Transformers a couple of weeks ago at that price). The Godfather Trilogy on Blu-ray went on sale for $45 at Best Buy just recently. And Amazon runs similar deals (2 for 1 deals especially) as well. Just sounds like its easier to make excuses and call Blu-ray a failure than to actual do some comparison shopping and some honest looking.