Comments on: Gartner: Windows is collapsing

CNET News.com's Ina Fried wonders just what has been going on while she has been in Latin America. Did Microsoft's profit engine just flame out?

[reneeliu1988]

what's this?

Windows is collapsing! what o pity ! i just don't know what to say.there is also a news about the thing above .www.uniformmate.com.let us talk about it!

[wjhepworth]

Gartner likely wrong again...

So I have lived with Gartners pronouncements of doom and gloom for Microsoft for almost a decade. According to Gartner, Lotus Notes was to dominate the mail server market. Wrong. According to Gartner, OS/2 was the superior O/S and would be on equal footing with Windows. Wrong again.

Gartner honestly has no magic ball. Not bad people but not very scientific in their analysis either.

[weegg]

i'll agree about Gartner, but it is coming

10% less developers on Windows OS this year.
15% market share decline in small/mid-size business IT contracts

Large corporations will make the move in 5 years I predict. MS own
licensing makes them just too costly. As h/w gets replenish the
number of MS systems returning has been on the decline.

Open Source is on the move up.

[bipinprakash]

And the Tiger does not crash.

I can see that the author of this article is primarily pro non MS in nature. Sure Microsoft is growing larger and larger and you are telling me that that is causing its demise. Just read that sentence again and see if it makes any sense. As for Apple's dominance on the personal computing industry, they are probably makes a leap in terms of their own expectations but one cannot compare the number of Window OS's sold to Apple the numbers are staggering. Also the day I see a corporation move its system to Mac's I will quit the business. Mac's just do not blend with networked computing with OD integration or AD plugin's. Microsoft is under no threat of coming down and if it does even in the next fifty years, the implications of it on world economy is that it will bring down on too many countries.

[Lee in San Diego]

Do you mean Leopard

Tiger is an older OSX version.

[wjhepworth]

Actually..

No, Gartner is notorious for falsely predicting the decline of market leaders and has previously indicated events such as the rise of Lotus Notes.

[gjrick]

Web 2.0

A well written article. From my standpoint, as a business owner who supports and trains end users, Windows security issues continue to plague the OS and users are just tired of having to worry all the time about virii, spyware, and other vulnerabilities.

I do not consider myself a huge geek, but because of security problems and MS's huge departure in usability and speed with Vista and Office 2007, I started exploring and enjoying using Linux packages.

With Web 2.0, strong showing from Apple, and ever increasing Linux installations, MS needs to make some positive changes fast.

Rick
www.HelpMeRick.com

[Apples&Oranges]

Lost of Ethics

Rick, I just to think like you. But you know today, the user base is vastly different. They accept things today, we would not in the past. I means it is OK today install a package and have it call home. The users today, if its something they notice, think all of these security related issues are normal. My sister, a total layman, was all tickled pick the other day with the POPS UP on here computer trying to sell her $40 dollar Air plane tickets! They get all excited when they can view movies on the net and they they are getting away with murder that the movie site allowed them to do so. Every software now whats to do autoupdates and USERS today accept that practice but they don't even know about it. They think it is normal. So because of this, the software shops just create BUGGY sofware like its nothing - they will just do a autoupdate anyway.

I use to think that even though MS had alot of security issues, they were pretty straight with developers and customers. I think they lost or losing that touch

[ivorycruncher]

What needs to happen

Steve Ballmer needs to be thrown out on his keyster. That's what needs to happen. I don't know about Windows, but Microsoft itself is definitely being crushed under its own weight. They have become far too diverse and divided, trying to go in all directions at once and be everything to everybody. Well, when you try to please everybody, you end up pleasing nobody, because it's impossible.

Microsoft has Windows, Office, IE, Live, OneCare, PocketPC, Xbox, just to name a few of the most common items. I just get the feeling they are spreading themselves too thin and losing focus. They really need to get out of monopoly mode and focus on doing only a few things and doing them well. For that matter, if MS would split into some smaller companies so that one company is solely developing Windows without any other distractions, I think Windows would become a much better product. Right now it has become the victim of too many conflicting interests and is suffering horribly. Right now their 2007 Office system, including all the Exchange and SharePoint stuff and whatnot, is a lot more solid than Windows is.

The only way to fix this is either for Ballmer to have a revelation (which I highly doubt will happen) or to replace top-level management so that they can begin anew.

[Apples&Oranges]

Lost!

As a long time developer and WIndows Shop (since the 80s), I can't say whether Windows is collapsing, but I will say "It ain't the same." Something is different wrong. One of the reasons we stayed with MS was because it had such a large developer base. But either is the new generation of management, new generation of Microsoft Developers, it just not the same anyone. First, things are more expensive, especially for the smaller shop. You need to sell your kids to afford MSDN. Second, they are nickle and diming you for everything now. Third, of course, Windows is over bloating. But also important, I think it is the unethical enginering that is taken hold. Lets put it this way, when the new Visual Studio IDE now "CALL HOME" and they make it very difficult to disable this privacy issue, you know the MINDSET has changed. You do realize this use be ILLEGAL, but somewhere alone the line the can of worms or Pandoro's Box was open and with Microsoft now trying to connect and "track" everything in the kernal and networking layers, it just makes the whole process just very scary.

Also, who said Ray Ozzie was good for Microsoft? I don't think he was very successful with Lotus Notes. I think part of the problem with MS is the new generation of younger management who could care less for small developers and consumers. It is all about the econonic scale - cater to the larger organizations.

I have about 10 years left in my software engineering career so another issue is that my generation don't care any more too. In the past, we just to ***** and scream when we don't something was not right. Today, we are more apathetic and do nothing, swallow it.

I'm too old to switch to Linux (or relearn Unix) and Apple always sucked to me. Just don't like them. But you can't help but notice they are becoming more and more part of the "world system."

Just consider that there are a THOUSANDS ways to write software or applications today. It takes a rare person to learn it all. So one will tend to stick with one or a few languages and systems. You just can't work with them all and become a master at them - a rare person. All this promotes the separation we see today and Microsoft isn't helping itself.

[Stormspace]

Predicted it years ago

I predicted this years ago. :) However my prediction came when Microsoft implemented activation with Windows XP. At the time my reasoning was that if people couldn't easily pirate Windows on home computers they would look to cheaper alternatives rather than pony up the money. The result would be a smaller base of people familiar with newer versions of Windows and less likely to upgrade to an unfamiliar system. So, while I'm not advocating piracy, product activation has had an effect. In the short term it boosted Microsofts profits, but in the long run it's costing them marketshare.

At the time I also said that linux would take off quite a bit more as well. It has, but not as much as I would have liked. Linux while an excellent server product just isn't ready as a dedicated desktop OS. Even though I use Ubuntu daily, I still have to use Windows.

[sal-magnone]

What about that weather?

I predicted it would rain a few years back. It did. I feel so good about it now.

The OS cost has nothing to do with it. It's a small % of the total cost. The hardware cost to run the OS is another matter. That's a problem.

MS needs to recapture that low cost hardware market. That shouldn't be too hard strategically because everything runs Windows or runs on Windows. Tactically it means slimming the OS footprint and getting it to run faster on lower end hardware.

Ironically, VISTA's biggest problem is the slow down in hardware sales and hence rollouts. It flies on quad core systems. Not just because of the extra total power but because of the added concurrency. Hardware is suffering because of both lower spending and concerns about heat and power. In the past MS could count on a fast catch up, not this time so much.

[scdecade]

Windows is really a GUI to most folk

What Windows means to most people is a GUI. To them what runs underneath is irrelevent. To people for whom what runs underneath IS relevent linux and unix are easily superior. MS makes good developer tools but it all runs on Windows which is a POS. In terms of non-GUI fundamentals, MS doesn't seem to have progressed much past DOS. It's simply not possible to compare server Windows to an AIX or Solaris. So how to bring the two together. IMO MS should make Windows for linux, unix, and maybe even OS-X. They'd make just as much money if not more. The whole idea they can weld the thing together is just bunker mentality BS. It's time MS opened up and had their own perestroika. Break the GUI from the garbage, spaghetti-code underneath it.

[Rawnchie14]

The thing is...

What most people obviously misunderstand is that, just because people aren't adopting Vista does NOT mean they're storming to OSX and Linux.

The fact of the matter is they're actually downgrading back to XP, or never leaving XP.

XP still is, and will be, to most used system on computers. Don't be deluded with ideas that OSX and Linux will take over the market. If it ever happened, it'd take awhile.

Vista is just something MS probably regrets, but does not compromise their obvious success in XP... since every machine here in my business building is running some form of Windows.

Face it, Windows XP is the productivity OS. Unless Linux get more user friendly (majority of people here need help with XP let alone Linux... it'll never happen), or Mac OSX gets more useful (and not just easy to use) then it'll stay that way.

[ppgreat]

"Empires don't really collapse."

Um, yes they do.

[celticbrewer]

Windows needs to be an OS again

Give us an operating system and nothing more. And make it cheap to free. Include a web browser and that's it. Make it thin, fast, and secure.

Then MS can make money on the extras like Office, Media Player/Center, Domain support, Utilities (AV/Defrag/Etc...), and other add-ons.

Outside of work, I use my computer 99% for web browsing and IM. I don't need a $120 bloated operating system to do that.

Secondly, the PC is moving into the living room as predicted years ago. It really is becoming more of a hub- connecting to the TV, stereo, game consoles, etc...

Is windows collapsing? No. It's definitely evolving, though.

As for open source, I'm a big supporter (and programmer) of it, but it's completely banned here at this large corporation. When something goes wrong, they want support and accountability. This will always be a windows shop and business is the biggest customer of M$.

[weegg]

xbox ...hmm

Wii is pawning them now, plus the xbox has an excessive failure
rate of any of the 3 consoles. The expense to MS has been
enormous and they have only recently crossed from red to black.

As for the PS3, give it time the software development
environment was incomplete at its release so its superior
capabilities will eventually win out, unless it is leapfrogged by
something else.

Actually, I don't own any gaming consoles, so I have no stake in
any of them.

[weegg]

mis-informed

More like 80% of desktops/laptops. Your percentage included
windows-mobile/lite on embedded systems (such as ATMs).

Also, you forget this is the first year we are now seeing a decline in
actual developers for windows (10% decline).

Let's face it the windows market is boring and played out.

[chkm8]

Who care's?

Windows isn't going anywhere. If you can't fit Vista on the new minibook's of today, make the minibook's with more room, you all know the technology is there. Why you holding back? And Apple is not gaining groung, the company is crap. Perhap's Gartner should join Steve Jobs in the think tank useless consumer product's like the iPod and iPhone...And come up with another brainbuster idea.

[weegg]

You state superior, not really

Windows-Mobile - nope. Linux and Mac OS X pwns it in
capabilities for cell phones.

IT Licensing - nope you lose again. MS licensing is more
expensive than the alternatives. The only reason they have
market-share is because they were the only game in town early
on. Now, their market share is especially declining in the small
to mid-size business as equipment is being retired and they
realize how much they save by going to alternative open-source
solutions.

MS business model is on the way out. The writing is on the wall.
Its just going to take time for the momentum to push back on
the inertia MS built up.

[hleotan]

Let's pretend that there Is no more Microsoft.

How much will we pay for software, Opensource, Linux, Mac? I don't believe things would remain free.

[Paul Yih]

Window and Microsoft is not compatible with the rest

It is sad and it is hard to tell the boys from Microsoft are looking more and more like aliens as to compare to the rest of the Internet crowd or clouds ----- Open source and all will further make Microsoft look bad to worse . It is lamentable -- but maybe Microsoft can create a system , an open system for their basic wares -- to become a global player again. otherwise, they look more and more like dinosaurs .

[Paul Yih]

I hope Microsoft group wake up and wake up fast

He lack vision , that is for sure --- Today, when there are no visions toward the future , you are basically be outpaced by all others .. the new web clouds are forming and fast.

[lpace1]

Collapse is a process

"Empires don't really collapse. Rather they become large, difficult to control and eventually unable to defend against a large rival. Gartner may have used the wrong term, but its warning seems nonetheless prudent."

The term "collapsing" is perfect, by your own definition. the components of their operation are not able to withstand pressures. "Has collapsed," would not be accurate. Would you rather say that Empires become dysfunctional and then the nature of their power and control ceases to exist? Come on...