Comments on: The state of the next-gen video game console

More than two years into the so-called next generation, it's too early to tell who's going to win. But some think the eventual victor might surprise you.

[No_Spark]

I certainly agree that the pricing of the Wii is a factor in sales but not popularity. The Wii is different, it plays very different. I believe the real attraction of the Wii is the interactive interface that is different than Xbox or PS2/3. There is no question of the technical superiority of the Xbox or PS2/3. What the PS2/3 and Xbox is suffering from is corporate risk adversion. Arguably they have the same games, same controls, graphic resolutions so good I can see the reflections of the other players on a drop of virtual sweat. But who cares.... The same old same old. Blah, Blah, Blah. Nintendo, desperate for differention has involved game player in a new way that is different, relatively simple, and let's face it FUN!!!! Now that Nintendo has struck with the first wave of psuedo virtual reality has, it will be interesting to see if Sony or M'soft can put their high power hardware to work in the virtual reality world.

[smokified]

The PS3 controller had motion detection in it when the PS3 was released. It is not the same obviously as the Wii, but all patents have to expire, and when that happens, the Wii has no more edge and Sony will be crushing the 360 by then because games are starting not to fit on single DVDs anymore, and when GTA5 comes out, I guarantee that the 1 disc BluRay version will be the choice of gamers over the 3 DVD set version that will have to be released for the "Next-Gen"less DVD drive in the 360. Either that or Microsoft adopts BluRay and Sony takes a cut off of all 360s sold too. Sony wins either way.

[juuken2]

This article is rubbish. If anything, I believe that MGS4 will drive sales and give Sony the momentum that is needed. I also believe that Nintendo will stay in first place, however Sony will move to second place.

And seriously, the PS3 is going to get a price cut by next month.

[mssoot]

Look, we pretty much knew all this anyway. The real question is when are the PS5 and Xbox 980 due out and what will the hardware be like? (Wiiiii will be in the closet by then)

[loserguy3000]

A nice article that widely misses the point. Although the writer took pains to be objective, it was at the exclusion of primary data. The Wii is already the worldwide market-leader with over 24.5 million consoles SOLD (not shipped), with the 360 coming in second at 19 million sold. The only market where the Xbox currently leads Nintendo is America, a fact that's about to drop as Nintendo's 9.5 million US total will certainly cross within the month.

I'm also shocked that after nearly two years on the market, price is still a mitigating factor in these calculations. If only price were the deciding factor, or technology. We're currently sitting in the middle of a cultural revolution in the gaming industry, one where power and might alone will no longer decide. Forget one second that NEVER in the history of gaming has the most powerful console led its generation - EVER - and you'll start to see the reality beyond baseless press-releases. While the Wii's ingenuity alone doesn't predestine it for sales superiority, its a factor when coupled with a low, low price tag.

Out of the box, a motion-sensing controller that (mostly) works, a library of innovative games that appeal to someone besides teenage boys, an easy-to-use dashboard system, and the ultimate coup - bundled Wii Sports. Its the most devastatingly powerful combination since the NES + Super Mario Bros. Motion-controls alone did not make the Wii successful; Nintendo's marketing and adherence to previously untapped markets did. When was the last time a mainstream console was used for physical rehabilitation? Or previewed at the AARP?

That's not to say the Wii doesn't have its fair share of...I'll be nice...less-than-stellar titles. Most are crap...but then so were most PS2, PS1, SNES, and NES games (all generation leaders). He with the most crap wins, because crap is relative.

Like it or not, the Wii is a textbook next-generation console in every way, as it signals how games will be played and enjoyed into the next cycles. The NES, while relatively underpowered compared to its compatriots, signaled a significant change that has completely dominated console style, look, feel, and function since (ironically) the Wii itself. But it's still just the first real attempt...suffice to say an exciting, if not frustrating one. It's certainly not a fad, and its clearly here to stay. That doesn't mean you can't play and enjoy Xbox 360 and PS3 with their more traditional games (I know I will), but its time to face reality and acknowledge Nintendo's major accomplishments.

Take the combined growth of Wii and DS out of the equation, and not only do the relative growth numbers for the industry change, they fall. Credit is due where credit is due.

[smokified]

Well put. Don't forget that the PS3 was realeased with a motion sensing controller also. Albeit it is not quite the same idea as the Wii, it is still there. Once the patent on the Wii controllers is up. Bye Bye Wii.

[go_harvick_29]

You know everyone hangs their hat on this BR thing, for thoughts in the crowd that remember laser disks they were a lot better than VHS but they were too expensive, we won't even talk about Beta, bottom line, BR is neat but not that much better than standard DVD, it's more expensive with minimal gain. Go ahead and throw all the stats out there you want, bottom line when I watch the two movies side by side I don?t see that jaw dropping difference. I have been told it is the difference between standard TV and HDTV but it isn?t, and you are asking me to spend a lot more money too. What you are asking me to do is replace my entire inventory of DVD's to get BR, I know you say they are backward capable, but if I want to watch one of my old movies in HD I need to replace my old version for the new version otherwise why buy a BR player if you?re just going to watch your old DVDs on there. For what, a minimal gain, then I need to replace the DVD player in my vehicles, and on my computers, for what so I can watch a $29 version rather than the $14 version. What I want is downloadable content I want to put all my DVD?s on something and not have disks that can be stolen, broken, or simply destroyed. I want MGM to remember that I bought a movie and if my hard drive crashes I can just redownload it. So if you think that BR is going to take over the world, I?m not saying it won?t but you have a lot of hurdles to clear before you can convince me to buy one. The only thing I can say that would attract me to the PS3 isn?t the BR player, it?s I have been trying to get GTA4 here is SoCal and when I go to the store the 360 version is always sold out but PS3 has 3 rows of them available. I hate to tell you this too, my Xbox sees my computer and I can play all my pictures, video?s, and music thought it, see?s my Zune and I can wireless play music thought it. With XBL I can get all the entertainment I need plus downloadable games. So waive the BR card all you want that isn?t the biggest selling point to the PS3.

[smokified]

"BR is neat but not that much better than standard DVD, it's more expensive with minimal gain."

I think you need to read up on these things before commenting and looking like a dbag.

Your telling me that a 4.3Gb is almost as good as a 25GB disc (single layer)? Maybe on your crappy TV BluRay is not that much better, but I would like to point out that 1080i is a FAR BETTER resolution than 480i/p whether you can see it or not.

BluRay has far more many uses than just sitting in your movie collection. Don't forget about data storage and the growing size of video games. I just downloaded a 13 gig install file for a game that was released this week. The box set came on 2 DVDs. If we do not advance in technology (as sony already has) soon it will be like the windows 3.1 days when you were installing things off of 10 floppy discs, only this would be DVDs.

Think of things as they apply to everyone, not just you.

[pfletcher]

OK - let's try and talk sense here - the Wii is the closest to break even on the hardware - the 360 and the PS3 both lose money on the hardware.

The platform (note term 'platform' - not console) that sells the most games, online subscriptions and movies over the net is the one that will win. Anyone notice that the 360 has had 16 million selling titles compared with 2 on the PS3 . Each one of those titles makes more for MS or Sony than a console sale. The figures that count are per sonsole titles sold x number of consoles. In other words if the Wii outsells X-Box by 4:1 but Wii owners buy 2 games each and X-Box owners buy 10 games each then X-Box is the leader.

You may also want to consider the typical price of the games on each platform.

[rpsanders]

Clearly this was a Fan Boy advertisement for the PS3. The first look at that initial projections chart spells it out quite nicely. Since when did c-net get so overrun by fan boys and stop giving useful and analytical insight.

[smokified]

Maybe this is useful and analytical insight and you are just pissed off because you do not have a PS3. Those projections did not come from Cnet, the sources are given.

I hope you are not breeding.

[smokified]

The biggest problem and innacuracy in this article is that they refer to the 360 and the PS3 as "Video Game Consoles".

The proper term for these 2 systems would be "Media Center". If you want a $199 "Video Game Console" get a PS2 (note that the PS2 still sells for more than the original XBox). The ability to play video games on the 360 and the PS3 is only one of the major features.

[snipa4lyfe]

There is no possible way the PS3 will sell that many. The Xbox 360 and Wii are too competitive in America, while the Wii and DS are basically alone on the Japanese charts. PS3 is strongest in Europe, and I guarantee Europe will never have the capacity to gobble up more than 30 million PS3s, and even that is a high number in itself.

[smokified]

Except for if you look, they are projecting to 2012. In 2 years from now there will not be a next or current gen game that fits on 1 DVD. Therefore people who want to continue to be gamers and have the ability to play the latest and greatest games will be forced to buy a PS3. That is unless you want to switch out discs during gameplay.....

It will be just like now. Everyone has/had a PS2, but only some of those people had Xbox's. Sony is looking at the big picture instead of looking at shock factor and immediate results. Sony has the system that was built with the future in mind and because of that, bye bye wii, and bye bye 360 within a couple years.

[stormz69]

The report is obviously USA-centric. It should have been taking in world figures for consoles sold AND game sales (good point about the 360 having more games sold). btw Nintendo actually make a profit on their Wii's sold, between $29 and $49 depending on which region it's sold in.

After having the PS1 and PS2, I have just bought a Wii. I have only ever (briefly) owned one Nintendo (the N64) as I couldn't stand all the kiddy games (Mario etc). I never thought I`d buy another Nintendo again.

The PS3 is too expensive. I`m not interested in Blu-Ray (no point as I don't have a HD tv anyway). The Xbox may have been my choice if the Wii didn't:
a) have the right price (although it's $399 here in Australia, about $370 USD... still alot cheaper than the PS3/360).
b) the amazing controls and games that are possible.
c) no longer just kiddy games. Check out the forthcoming Madworld for instance.
d) moddable, like the 360 is, but the PS3 isn't.

If I had the money/time I`d buy all 3. Sorry Sony, but my PS2 is still in action :)

[smokified]

The PS3 isn't moddable YET. Why is it that so many people forget to look forward....It happens with walking, driving, thinking, planning. People...wake up...

You seem like a resonable guy. Would buy all 3 if he had the money...not interested in BluRay for his reasons...You don't spend any time pushing your opinion on us. We could all use this comment as an example of how to share your view without being a duche.

Now, back to my original thought. As soon as nintendo crosses the line into more adult themed games...watch what happens when Grandma thinks she is turning on Wii bowling and she sees some **** get blown up... I can't wait to see Fox's report on that crap.

[swiggins]

So called analysts have been wrong about this 3 way race every step of the way. You sir are forgetting to mention that by 2011 MS will by pushing out their "NEW" console, that will make this generations graphics look old and gray. What your doing is GUESSING yet again, and it's weird, because every time you guess, you put Sony up on a pedestal. The PS3 is not the ps2, . . people are not rushing to replace their dvd collections with bluray and as brand loyal as gamers might be, they are also very fickle. . . could it be that all the so called analysts just don't get it? it's been 3 years and 60 million combined units in this gen. on consoles, . . do you think maybe a 2 or 3 way market might be the way this is headed? It wouldn't be the first time an industry has split and splintered for a generation before the next big thing is released. . . . I think this gen. won't last half as long as you guys expect, and who comes out on top is anyones guess, . . now stop trying to be a mystic and stop telling the future, . . you've been wrong for almost 3 years.

[smokified]

If you think that Microsoft is going to get away with releasing a new $399-$499 ( who knows with inflation...) every 3 years just to keep up with what sony did right the first time around. YOU SIR, just made yourself look like king ass clown by trying to condescend me with retarded statements based on no intellectual knowledge of anything at all.....

People never rushed to replace their VHS collections either. I STILL have movies on VHS that I do not have on DVD. But everywhere I look, there is a DVD of a movie, or a game, or one full of pictures or music.... The same will be with BluRay. It is now the technology to replace DVD. It has been decided. Within 5-10 years, you will have BluRay discs coming out of your ears. We should trade information so we can discuss this again when it happens.

This same "fickleness" that you speak of later on in your ramblings is the very same "fickleness" that would not lead these same people to wanting to bother with a new console once every 2 or 3 years as you state. You can keep dreaming that your lover Bill Gates will come through for you and make a shining new pile of old technology. By then Sony will have announced the PSVR (Playstation Virtual Reality) to be released in 2015.

And your last fragmented sentence is the best one of all. I hope after this you stop lying to yourself and look in the mirror. You specifically state that YOU THINK this gen will not last half as long as blah blah...but then in the next section of this fragment you go on to say, and I quote, "now stop trying to be a mystic and stop telling the future, . . you've been wrong for almost 3 years".

Sounds to me like the ass is doing most of the talking and the head got stuck in there somehow......

[DrtyDogg]

smokified=Fanboy. Check your facts man, you are wrong on many of them.

[smokified]

What stats do I need to check that I am wrong about?
How am I being a fanboy when I am pointing out reality?
Who gives a **** if I was or was not a fanboy? People choose to be fanboys because the product they are a fan of consists of the quality that impresses people.
It sounds more to me like you are a 360-Wii fanboy not liking to hear the truth. If you are going to call me wrong, you should at least point out an example, otherwise keep your mouth shut.

[DrtyDogg]

@smokified.
"[i]If you think that Microsoft is going to get away with releasing a new $399-$499 ( who knows with inflation...) every 3 years just to keep up with what sony did right the first time around.[/i]"
In november the 360 will have already been out for 3 years, in 2011 like he originall said would make that 6 years. The normal lifespan of a game console is 5 years.

"[i]People never rushed to replace their VHS collections either. I STILL have movies on VHS that I do not have on DVD."[/i]
There was a huge spike in DVD sales once the players got down below $200 dollars in America, and in Japan they saw the same spike thanks to the PS2. Sony is hoping the same will happen with BR and the PS3, and they stand to make a huge profit if it does.

I'm not a fanboy of any company, they are companies. Their entire goal is to take your money. Enjoy their products by all means but it is not a religion.
"[i]People choose to be fanboys because the product they are a fan of consists of the quality that impresses people.[/i]"
Maybe I'm weird, but my PS3 has impressed nobody, it's a toy.

[smokified]

And you think the cost of BluRay and the PS3 is not going to come down? You are another one of those idiots that is only thinking about right now and is not looking at what histroy might suggest the future might hold. You apply only knowledge of your situation to all of your arguments and that just means that your arguments are biased and they lack the foundation necessary to make them relevant.

If you would learn how to use your PS3 you would soon realize that it is a full fledged media center. not a toy. If it is a toy to you, take the **** back, you wasted your time because you are too stupid to explore the rest of the features.

Maybe it is you that impresses nobody, not even with a PS3.

[ehutch7]

the cost of the cheapest xbox 360 is $350. xbox live is $50 yearly. if 360 has a 7 year lifespan, the cost of your 360 has DOUBLED from $350 to $700! yet people claim that the ps3 is too expensive at $399. blu-ray player included. go figure.

[smokified]

What are you trying to say?

[raitchison]

That argument only works if you actually believe that Sony won't start charging for PSN about 5 minutes after they decide they can get away with it. The only reason PSN is free right now is because it's vastly inferior to Xbox Live in every way except price.

[raitchison]

Also the cost of a non-crippled PS3 is $499.

[smokified]

And by the time you buy all the accessories for a 360 to make it have almost the same features as the PS3 you will spend more than $499. Either way you look at it they are a good amount of money. Those who enjoy a full digital media center find it to be worth the cost.

[raitchison]

Sorry I read the entire article but I saw nothing to back up the ridiculous predictions of the PS3s runaway success, to me I think the game will be what crowns the winner, the PS3 has few good games now and while it does have some coming out in the next year it has a long way to catch up to the 360 in game selection.

Online service as well, sure you pay for Xbox Live but one could argue you get what you pay for when comparing Xbox Live to PSN.

This reeks of fanboysim if you ask me.

[smokified]

Except for in a couple of years at MAX the standard game will not fit on a DVD and BluRay is the only other option for 120mm data storage. 360's games will all of the sudden be inferior and the PS3 will still be there with the best games in the end. It was this way with PS, PS2 and will be this way with the PS3 as nobody seems to have caught on to Sony's strategies.

[smokified]

"But another problem for Sony has been the perception that there aren't very many must-have games available for the PS3 and that cross-platform titles sell better on Xbox. Hits like Grand Theft Auto IV, Assassin's Creed, Guitar Hero III, Electronic Arts' Madden football, and other cross-platform games seem to sell better on Xbox than on PS3, and the biggest PS3-only successes have been MotorStorm and Resistance: Fall of Man. "

++Comments like this **** me off in news articles. Of course cross platform games are selling better on the 360 right now. More people currently have 360s than PS3s.

These are also the SAME EXACT hurdles Sony has had to jump during the release of the PS2. Now every gamer has a PS2 regardless of what system they started out with in the beginning of the XBOX vs PS2 war.

Why is this crap being reported as if we have not watched this show before. It is just a remastered rerun of 10 years ago.

[FlutchoMucho]

The graph in this article is the most ridiculous thing I've seen all day. It claims that:

? That next year, the PS3 will sell more units than it has in its multi-year lifetime to date
? That by the end of next year the PS3 will have outsold the lifetime sales of the 360!!

Neither of these are remotely possible - it would require the PS3 to sell more consoles in one year than any console has ever before, and that in a middling year of its hardware cycle with no rationale at all apaert from 'Sony will win'. The claim that the 360 will struggle because it is too ?hardcore? when Sony has a similar catalog in the works? ridiculous.

The Ps2 won the last hardware cycle with better software - their core problem is that they've been unable to replicate this with a generally poorer catalog. And games still sell hardware, not vice versa.

[Turk2]

So we have another analyst who knows nothing about the video game industry making an analysis. Score one for the guys who cant even talk the talk!

[Slave2DaBox]

I find this Laughable as Xbox 3 could blow the Ps3 sideways for one Xbox live in 4 years time will blow everything else away, Wait !! it does that already.
I never trust things like this anyway, By the time they Bring out Ps4 I'm sure they will be working on Xbox 4 an I'm sure that the Sony will be playing catch up.

I'm willing to bet my house on this Sony will make all these statements and promises about the Ps4 but they will drop them or will be delayed.

[Ravenlore]

again, look at sales now world wide. PS3 is right behind Xbox 360 by just over a million. Xbox is only out selling PS3 in the US.

PS3 games are not yet begging to show their capabilities, just like PS2; the games started out with games like jack &D, then ended with Jack 3 and GOW2 which look a lot better than the first year games.

Xbox games did not improve as much, Halo and Halo 2 were not totally visuall different. Xbox 360 will suffer the same.

PS3 games will improve by leaps and bounds while Xbox games only imporve some what.

As PS3 gets more Exclusive he differences will be huge as Bigger games will be possible with Blu-ray disk. starting with MGS4 exclusives will show the difference.

[longaway]

It always amazes me how every analyst misses the obvious when talking about the current crop of consoles and/or Blu-ray; it's all about the televisions.

If you don't have a Hi-def TV, then why do you need Hi-def media or components? Nintendo understood that when they designed the Wii. Sony did too, but they decided to work the long tail strategy: Sooner or later everyone will have an HDTV, let's be the first company to give them everything in one package.

Assuming the US economy doesn't tank, and assuming that stand-alone Blu-Ray player prices don't drop too quickly, Sony's PS3 sales will increase as the price of HDTVs reduce to true mass market levels. The Blu-ray aspect of the PS3 is, and will continue to be, as big a selling point as the DVD aspect was for the PS2.

Nintendo played the reverse game, and is definitively coming out as the short term winner. Why load up with Hi-def this and that, and need to charge the customer for it, when the majority of them won't be using it for years? They offered an innovative new gameplay system with solid off-the-shelf hardware that could be sold at a low price. And that same philosophy is what will allow them to keep near the top when they release a new/revised Wii.

And that new Wii could be coming a lot sooner than anyone thinks. Two things will happen that are going to be the clear point of demarcation: 1) the HDTV tipping point to mainstream majority is clearly in sight, 2) hardware costs for HD graphics are available at a price low enough that the new Wii will be available for $249. Of course, that's assume that they don't make the jump into full on Virtual Reality that's they're obviously heading towards.


Microsoft, on the other hand, jumped out of the gate selling to previous Xbox owners and hardcore gamers and technophiles. Whether you believe they were working for HD-DVD, or as a spoiler for both Hi-def media options in favor of downloads, their gambit did not pan out like they hoped. The hardware failures, variety and differences of SKUs, and non-family friendly reputation have doomed them to an eventual third place. They will try to obscure this by jumping the gun with an early new console, but the features will be only incrementally better than the PS3 at a higher price point.

In the end, it all comes down to the TVs. Sony and Nintendo saw this. Nintendo went for multiple short term options, while Sony went for a single long term. Microsoft didn't seem to care.

[MicrosoftGOne]

I agree with Aemarques here the Wii is not a next generation console. Unless of course you agree with Will Wright who created Spore and the SIms, he thinks it is the only next gen console. THe PS3 and XBOX 360 are just the previous versionw ith better graphics and faster. Nintendo have something completely new, and the way they keep demand high and stock low they keep consumer demand up. The price won't go down. All that said I have a PS3, they are just amazing and Resistance fall of man is ... wow...