Comments on: Apple's holiday not looking great, could be worse

Preliminary estimates of Apple's performance amid one of the worst economic periods in years indicate no one has a magic bullet for recession, but some fare better than others.

[Penguinisto]

So IOW, Apple is set to have another record quarter, in spite of all the doom and gloom prophesies?

Cool.

/P

[Tom Krazit]

The year-over-year comparisons will still be pretty good, especially for iPhone. But a decline in iPod holiday shipments of that magnitude compared to last year has to be disappointing, and the overall picture is one of slowing growth--not free-fall, but a loss of momentum. We'll see how long it lasts.

[Penguinisto]

True enough, but slowing growth will hit all of tech with near-equal ferocity. A big ferinstance: I honestly don't exect, say, Dell to get through this in one piece. They're carrying debt, they were already somewhat struggling to stop the bleeding in HP's direction, and I can't see how or where they can cut their margins any thinner without sacrificing something. HP is probably staring down the barrel of a very similar gun at this point, in spite of its greater market diversity. Cisco doesn't even bear thinking about - they just barely began pimping 7000-series core switches to replace the venerable (and still working) 6509's.

The iPod is pretty much at saturation, IMHO - everyone (relatively) has one, and they don't break as often or as easily, so how to sell folks on newer ones in tough times?

/P

[Tom Krazit]

See, that's the question: will everybody slow down at the same pace, or will some be hit harder than others? We don't know just yet, but we can start to gauge as data like this rolls in.

Agreed on the iPod: Apple's plan for dealing with that is to upsell you to the iPod Touch. They might not ship as many, but they'll make more money overall.

[Mark_Anderson]

6 million iPhones seems a bit weighty but you never know.

[Penguinisto]

@Tom: I think that (with caveats) everyone will slow at the same pace this go 'round... HP's earnings were decent, but only because their fiscal timing was a bit shifted-out from everyone else. If everyone kept to the same schedules, then yeah - it'd be easier to see, but I think that in the wash, Apple will still be breaking records (just not as wildly as it has), HP will still be plodding along (just not as strong), and Dell, Cisco, Microsoft, etc. will be struggling (only moreso).

The caveats involve sectors... Some sectors you simply cannot stretch out, while others you can. You can always put off a new core router for another year or two (depending) or simply expand the one you have instead of buying a whole new one. You can do the same with PC's. A SAN running short on disk space OTOH is something you can't simply put off (esp. if you're keeping SOX compliance). So, some sectors will still sell no matter what (storage), some you can put off for a shirt period of time (servers, routers), and some, well... you can push off for much longer (workstations).

/P

[loose_screw]

Why is this front page news? Given the state of the economy, is this a surprise to anybody? At least they're not laying off employees like other companies. What's the point of giving Apple this kind of spotlight on CNET news?

[zato_3]

Why is this front page news?
It's front page news because it's an opportunity to discredit Apple and kill sales of Apple products. It also brings out the PC gamer/haters, who are good for thousands of clicks on any negative Apple story. This is all good for Microsoft/CNet.

[myles taylor]

zato_3, I love how some of the people here are always accusing CNet of being pro-Apple and some are doing the opposite. I do have to say though, haven't you seen the CNet, I'm a Mac ads running on CNet? I'm sure Microsoft is really happy about that.

[steve4lee]

It amazes me that they still sell iPods. By now surely everyone has one except for people who are philosophically opposed to owning one.

I don't need a new Mac, and I probably won't get an iPhone until late next year, so I'm not going to help any near quarter for Apple.

[Perry_Clease]

I have worn out two of them over the years, the battery no longer holds much of a charge in one and the hard drive went click-of-death on another. Now that statement is sure to invite a snarky remark from some dufus troll, but the point is that many iPod users are replacing older models that either don't have the features they want or are no longer usable.

The iPod with the bad battery sits in an iHome2go portable player that I take out the garage, backyard, or wherever. The broke dick iPod is waiting on me to decide if I want to try fixing it, have someone fix it, or steam punk it into something else. I did get a lot of hours out of them so I feel that they did not die in vain.

Last January when the hard drive died in the one iPod I replaced it with a Nano, the more squarish design and I am quite happy with it. It doesn't hold as much as the 30GB dead iPod, but I was using that when I was traveling around the country a lot, these days are spent mostly around town.

In August we bought two iPhones, a decision that I don't regret, cost not withstanding. My wife was using a TREO 600 and the battery in that was going. She said she wanted to look into an iPhone, she tried it and liked it. I was going to stick with my garden variety cell phone until it croaked, but I took the plunge as well. We share the minutes in a family plan and the cost including the data is only a few bucks above our old plan.

Gotta get back to work, you all have a good afternoon

[Vegaman_Dan]

I suspect that we're reaching saturation now on the iPhone as well. Now with competition showing up with Android, people are hesitating and starting to look at actual features instead of just brand name or logos.

It should be an interesting time.

[Penguinisto]

@Dan: I doubt the smartphone market will be saturated anytime soon... marketshares in it still have plenty of room for change (e.g. companies dumping Blackberries and BES and going iPhone with just Exchange and no BES to save money).

Now if one player had and held the majority marketshare and was still growing, then saturation would be something that one could see happening.

[Vegaman_Dan]

Penguinisto:

"@Dan: I doubt the smartphone market will be saturated anytime soon... marketshares in it still have plenty of room for change (e.g. companies dumping Blackberries and BES and going iPhone with just Exchange and no BES to save money). "

This clearly shows that you haven't actually used the product. Outlook / Exchange support on the iPhone is horrible. I have it on my Touch and it's slow, clunky, and makes a first gen Palm PDA look like a Ferrari by comparison. Yes, it has Exchange connectivity, but very very limited and poorly designed to the point to be unusable by any serious user. As for being in the enterprise market, the security on the iPhone is... non-existant. Literally- none. I can pick up an iPhone or Touch right now and have full 100% access to every single file and email on that unit. There is a pin lock for Exchange, but two key presses in combination with the power button causes the system to bring up errors that bypasses the lock. No, there is no fix for this. That means any and all mail for that account is exposed to the world. Visit a corrupted website and you can have your unit compromised. Will you ever know it? Nope- there is no security. Everything is run as root.

Go back and read the news again. IT company presidents get the iPhone because of the glitz and glamour at the exact denial by any competent IT department and are forced to support it. That becomes a major vulnerability right there.

Tell me, would you allow an unsecured device on your network with full access and zero means to protect it or control how it is used on your network? What IT person would ever allow such a thing?

It can get better, it really can, but I don't think this generation of the iPhone will be the one to do it. It simply has too many legacy limitations in it to really do that job well. If you use one for any length of time, I do believe you would find this to be true yourself.

[joecig]

I think these estimates for Apple are low being based on brick & mortar sales.
iTunes, now the 3rd largest music retailer, is uniquely positioned to see a big increase in sales at the end of the year with this market down turn.
Having a base price of $.99 is within reach of most all consumers, and would not be considered an extravagance.

[Penguinisto]

Agreed, partially.

The iTunes store isn't much of a profit center, so relying on it would not be wise. OTOH, Piper Jaffray only counted brick-and-mortar stores, not the Apple website sales of hardware (which make for a pretty large chunk of sales). That's going to throw their estimates off by quite a bit.

[stefanvolos]

Had Apple decided to upgrade their iMac line as I had been hoping they would, they very likely would've made a sale to me this holiday season. Now I will be expecting even MORE in terms of an upgrade for the iMac line-up in the late winter/early spring and at very competitive prices... Please don't disappoint me, Steve.

[gsmiller88]

I'm just not in the market for an Apple product this season. I've already got an iMac, MacBook, AirPort Extreme, iPod Video, and iPod Shuffle, I don't need anything else.

[robmenke]

Geez,
Can't you guys cover Apple without the impeding dark cloud? Just once I'd like to see a CNET article that was just factual without the negative undertones. I'm not asking for "fanboy" coverage just leave the negative editorial stuff out. It just makes you look stupid and petty.

[Mark_Anderson]

Actually you are asking for fanboy coverage. Munster is probably one of the most pro-Apple analysts out there.

[solitare_pax]

I'm looking for news - not an Apple article that roots for Blackberries and wraps it up with the forelorn hope that Apple will at least trip up in the near future thanks to the economy.

Seems like the economy is going to get everyone - at least Apple has money in the bank this time.

[Seaspray0]

@Tom Krazit. Now this is a worthy article! You dug for the truth of a subject and you overlayed it over the big picture to give it perspective. Cnet needs more like it.

As for those who think Tom is being gloomy, check out the condition of some other Tech's... i.e. "Sun" may not shine much longer.

[Penguinisto]

HP got a cushy piece this morning in spite of (by comparison) mediocre numbers... you were saying? ;)

[Vegaman_Dan]

Penguinisto wrote:

"HP got a cushy piece this morning in spite of (by comparison) mediocre numbers... you were saying? ;) "

As did Apple and Yahoo. So your point is ... pointless. Apparently you were saying nothing yourself.

[AppleSuxLeo]

They can`t keep those $349 Winny XP netbooks in stock. As soon as the Winny 7 versions hit , Apple will be toast. With a down economy and free wifi all over the OC at McDonalds , I make all my calls unlimited on Skype for $2.49/mo to USA and Canada. A netbook for $349 is much more useful than an iPhony , fake computer. Run any app you want and don`t give Jobs a penny !

[johnqh]

I expect to see you hanging out, with a Netbook in your pocket, listening to your music, opening the cool netbook everytime when you make a phone call....

Wait, how do other people call you?

[anilsudh]

Oh my goodness this mentally retarded person has one again escaped from the asylum. Please someone call 911 and get this guy some electric shock.

[Vegaman_Dan]

I don't expect netbooks to really take off until they drop below that magical $200 barrier that many tech items have to in order to be an impulse buy. If you are paying more than that, then you can just get a cheap laptop instead.

Watch the Black Friday ads. I would be surprised if we didn't see Acer Aspire and Asus netbooks showing up in those at sub $200 prices.

[ppgreat]

"They can`t keep those $349 Winny XP netbooks in stock. As soon as the Winny 7 versions hit , Apple will be toast."

Why do they allow computers in the sanitarium??

[Mark_Anderson]

I dunno. You tell us.

[weeman17]

I don't know about that. You forget that apple has boot camp to fix that kind of issue. As for the netbook it is just a waste of time. i am your average consumer and any computer or tech guy wouldn't need a netbook unless they were working for UPS!

[ktodack]

I think the prediction about iPods could be considerably off. The reason I say this is because I feel that Apple thinks the public already knows the features and prices of all new IPods and doesn't need to advertise much but depends on word of mouth. Every time I mention the lack of advertising posters say that Apple does TV advertise-- But I say not very much and spotty in their time slots and no print advertising. If they really advertised the Touch-- show it's features and it's new price Apple will have great sales this Christmas. The new IPod Touch is a game changer-- nearly all the features of the iPhone--movies, games, WIFI, music, at a starting price of only $229.00 and no contracts for those who already have a cell phone their happy with. Apple needs to spend a million or two of it's 25 Billion to teach the public about it's products and not just make fashion statements-- newspapers, magazines, more TV-- there is a huge segment of the public that are still clueless about Apple. I'm still amazed when I get a Best Buy advertising section in the Sunday Paper and see NO Apple computer products and only the 16 GB Touch at $299 - misleading the public about the prices that can buy a touch and even the fact they can purchase Apple computers at Best Buy. Apple, for it's size and investment in products is a poor, poor marketer-- but it's something easily correctable.

[jasondolbin]

apple is doing a huge push for holiday apps for the iphone. check out santalive (3D animated series in which you see what santa is doing at the north pole daily), or the miniture golf (holiday edition). There are about 100 holiday apps and I would imagine that another 100 or so will be released soon.

[anany555]

I wanted to buy a new ipod this season but Im not going to. Theres nothing for me. Their models have skimpy capacity for the price. I HATE the new nanos--the last model was better. The itouchs or iphones are great, but I cant afford them. I hope Apple comes up with something better soon. Im going to check out zen and zune.