Comments on: Is Apple's success the result of luck or skill?

The Mac maker's growing success in the computing market, claiming 10.6 percent of the U.S. laptop market, can be attributed to both smart positioning and lucky positioning.

[Thomas, David]

Sorry Don,
Maybe I will bother reading the article later, but the title demands to be commented on, and even ridiculed. Luck?! Shoot me now. Let's not all play dumb so we can have make believe debates.

[dd13reis]

Read the article first then make a call on whether or not luck is involved. I thought might come around and say it is.

-Don

[Thomas, David]

I did read the article, and it is poor argument to point to the lack of vision, and quality of competitors, as luck for Apple. The only thing lucky about Apples' success was their decision to bring Steve Jobs back, and let him guide them. Instead of making a blank statement, I will try to point it out.

When Apple let Steve Jobs, and then John Sculley, they were trying to be like the other computer manufacturers. To them, at that time, they had become completely lost from the vision that Wozniak, and Jobs originally had ... a computer for consumers, that consumers would want to use, and would become as much a fabric of their lives as any personal item.

Upon Steve Jobs return, he killed the notion of being like others, expanded his idea into computing devices that consumers would want, and all with one new aspect ... secrecy. Don't let your competitors know what you are up to. Don't take them head on. At that point in time, I believe Apple was trading at nine (9) dollars a share.

First stop, re-invigorate the operating system, and eliminate the fractured production lines caused by hardware dependencies the OS had with their current, and all too many models. As a result, they were able to reduce costs in design, product, and support.

Second stop, do something they love, and want. They had an excellent opportunity with the Music industry. Instead of creating a repeat solution, they dove into it with enough genius, and passion to see beyond the hardware. The iPod garnered enough envy, from the very same people who derided it, they stayed on the ball and made it available to everyone.

Next stop, back to the roots of the company ... an actual computer that people would want again. Hence, the introduction of the iMac, and its many incarnations. At the same time they kept up additional secret work on their operating system. They knew IBM might not live up to delivering, and extending the PowerPC/Gn line, but never admitted publicly. So they made sure they would have options by making the operating system, for the first time, processor independent.

Don't forget, during all this time, the final version of XP hadn't been out, ME was a bust, and 98 was riddled. So as far as usability, the Macs always out-shined their competitors. I remember when XP was out, all of the Microsoft sales people kept comparing it to Apples OS because it was so pretty.

Next stop, 64 bit support for consumer computers, grid computing ... yes, the operating system again. And no, they never stopped improving the iPod, iTMS, or their customer support. They knew that if they could gain consumer confidence in their products, and still improve upon them, they could make sure the company was on solid ground to try "experiments". I believe the Cube was one, AppleTV is another. I like my AppleTV, but I use it how it was designed. Truth be told, they could turn that into something far greater if they wanted to, but I get the feeling that device has been in debate within the company for at least two years (and probably before it was introduced).

Whether anyone likes Apple, or their products isn't even a place in the debate. What is true, is Apple has remained committed, moved forward, and never rested on current success. They have worked very hard not to become the status quo, even within their own ranks. The moment they start doing that they would be in trouble.

No, it's not luck. It really, really isn't.

[Groucho6]

"It's a strange phenomenon, but people that start using Apple products have a sense of loyalty to them unlike any other computer brand."

What is so strange about it? They have marvelous products, a marvelous customer experience, and when something goes wrong, excellent customer service. Since it appears this is a "strange phenomenon" in the 2000s, let me explain it: QUALITY inspires loyalty.

[dd13reis]

Marvelous? I think Apple still makes quite a few mistakes and has done so in the past too. We can't pretend like everything Apple does is wonderful, but rest assured that it makes big mistakes just like every other company in the industry.

-Don

[Synthmeister]

A couple things:

Jobs cleaned up Apple's disastrous logistics/forecasting/supply chain issues. I.e. confusing product line up, terrible forecasting (one model would be back ordered and another would be sitting in warehouses.)

Jobs killed distractions, no matter how good?Newton.

One of the problems with the original Mac, is that it leveraged NOTHING from Apple's previous success of the Apple II line?not the OS, not the software, not the hardware, and not the developer pool. In fact, the Mac and Apple II actually competed against each other for resources inside of Apple.

This time, Jobs leveraged each hit into another hit. The iPod worked seamlessly with the Mac and played to its strengths?firewire, intuitive software. The iTunes Music Store made sure iPods had content and invited PC users to the party and also leveraged Quicktime (and made sure WMA would not be the standard!) The iTMS also allowed Apple to start dabbling in a video downloads and casual game downloads which is now leveraged by the AppleTV (50,000 movies a day now!) The various iterations of iPods gave Apple invaluable experience learning how to mass produce mobile consumer electronic devices, which of course was then leveraged by the iPhone, which again harnessed the iTMS experience to produce the App store which is all tied together by OSX which will be completely 64-bit by Snow Leopard.

As far as luck goes, I would say that Apple:

1. Was lucky that none of the computer manufacturers realized for 15 years how beholden they were to Microsoft. (Or if they did, they were too scared or dumb to do anything about it.)They engage in bloody cost cutting year after year, while MS sits back and still reels in massive licensing fees from all of them. Hardware competition and but no OS competition.
2. Was lucky that Sony thought it was still a great idea to open a music store which only worked with Sony mini-disc players, after Apple already introduced the iPod and iTMS
3. Was lucky that every other MP3 player maker thought that being dependent on Microsoft was a vote for "choice."
4. Was lucky that the record companies thought subscriptions were a great idea and Apple was too insignificant to upset their pipe dream.
5. Apple was lucky that Gil Amelio bought NEXT instead of Be.

[dd13reis]

Great comment! Thanks for it. Right on every level. I'd add one more: Luck that Sony, Microsoft, Dell, HP, and others all screwed up around the same time. Never done before, hasn't happened since.

-Don

[Galaxy5]

"Jobs cleaned up Apple's disastrous logistics/forecasting/supply chain issues. I.e. confusing product line up, terrible forecasting (one model would be back ordered and another would be sitting in warehouses.)"

To be fair, Gil Amelio began the effort to replace Apple's painful logistics tracking software with SAP. Gil was smarter than a lot of people gave him credit for, and while Jobs brought style, flair, and adventure back to Apple, Gil's "screw you hippies" attitude really pi**ed a lot of people off.

[eason_chan]

If something is good enough for people to use it, and "people that start using the products have a sense of loyalty to them", and you call this LUCK? what an article~

[dd13reis]

Re-read the article. I'm saying that Apple was lucky to create that environment you mention. It was lucky to have everything fall in place the way it did. Not that it was lucky to make people loyal.

-Don

[totaldrivel]

Apple's success rides on the coat tails of Microsoft and Windows. I think if you look carefully enough you'll find Apple's growth directly tied to the moment they embraced Windows users. The iPod would not be what it is today without developing for Windows. The Mac, in all its incarnations, was not as popular a platform until they started using Intel chips that allowed all Intel based Macs to run Windows.

So, like every business in existence Apple's success is a little luck and and a little skill. But, a majority of their success is directly due to Microsoft and Windows.

[dd13reis]

Interesting point. I'm not sure I agree the "majority" of its success can be tied to MSFT and Windows, but I would say that some of it is. I think it can be tied to other, more tangible things, like industry inertia and competitor mistakes -- including MSFT.

-Don

[theveggiedude]

Being innovative will get you lucky? Hmm, I better remember that the next time I go to Vegas, or get a hot date.

[jasonblue]

Yea, Apple is lucky because all of their competitors are incompetent; Like Jordan was lucky that there wasn't a better basketball player in the league while he was playing.

[dejan2102]

You can do creative writing or creative design on Mac, but you cannot really do business without Windows.
Although you can run Windows on Mac, how many businesses are doing that.
For most people Mac is just a home appliance or toy.
Kids buy it becouse that want admiration of their pears.
It's just a bigger iPod for them.

[Galaxy5]

"you cannot really do business without Windows."

That's funny, because Apple's been doing 'business' without Windows for as long as Windows has been around.

Seriously - I can't believe people overlook the elephant in the room when they make this ridiculous claim. Apple is a $100 billion+ company. And they manage to do it without using Windows in any material fashion.

[jasonblue]

I am a huge apple fan but I have to say, apple TV sucks. I've had one for about a month. I have way more content on an external HD than I do in iTunes an no way to access it unless I go through the laborious process of converting and loading it all into iTunes. If mac mini had a blue ray drive and more memory I would use it with front row and the external HD plugged into it with wireless keyboard. I'm considering putting the apple TV on Ebay. A very unapple like product.

[Thomas, David]

After my previous response, something became self evident.

The luck argument is based upon Dell, HP, Sony, and others performance. I have to include Microsoft in there separately, because Microsoft produces the operating systems these companies predominately use.

The simple reason, it was not luck is this. If Apple had not become so secretive upon Steve Jobs return, does anyone for one second think they would not have faced one trump after another!?! Dell, HP, Sony, and others were/are dependent upon Microsoft. Microsoft would have been the only company needed to do the trumping.

Maybe you can call it luck that Steve Jobs, and Apple learned that they needed to keep secrets. But that is all, and it surely isn't an argument for luck.

[jameskatt]

Apple has that rare combination of absolute skill AND luck.

As a small-marketshare company, it drives the entire industry.

And its products - more than any other consumer electronics company products - inspire pure, unadulterated LUST.

Apple simply makes products that have extremely high intrinsic QUALITY. Quality is designed into its products. This is why it inspires such LUST and DEVOTION among its users.

[Macbrewer]

Author, like everyone at CNET is a Windoze fanboy.

Microsoft is the lucky one that got 1) the sweetheart deal from clueless IBM in the first place. 2) the Bush DOJ to roll over and DROP the monopoly CONVICTION.

Apple has worked VERY hard to get where they are. It's really insulting for you to think it was luck. Is part of Apple's success due to Monopolysoft being lazy? Sure, and I guess that could be described as 'luck' on Apple's part, but it is more accurately slot and arrogance on Microsoft's part?

Finally, Dell, HP, Sony, et al. Give us a break. These companies have never done ANYTHING but slap together parts, as any FOOL can do by themselves. Hint to the windoze fanboys, plugging in your own HD and powersuppy to a mobo you bought at Fry's doesn't equate to 'building' a computer. It takes less skill than changing the oil in your car.

Apple on the other hand? They have switched processor platforms twice, and moved to totally different operating systems. Microsoft? They still use most of the features that were built in by the guy that actually developed DOS (That Microsoft BOUGHT from him.)

One more thing. Job's did set about writing a new OS--- that was WHY he was hired.

Next time, write about something you understand. Like hacking your registry...

[kksing]

I think their biggest stroke of luck for them to be so underestimated by Microsoft that MS agreed to pump US$150M into Apple at the time when they were in huge financial trouble. I think if Bill & Co had thought Apple would be the 'threat' that it is, they would have pulled production of MS Office for Mac & seen all the legal actions to the bitter end. Based on the relative position of the two companies then, Apple would now be a footnote of IT history...

[HighwayHome]

Unlike the PC, the Mac is just easier to use and it works. Nothing lucky about superior design - it's all about vision and bringing sexy back to the computing world.

[teohyc]

There's no such thing as luck if you're successful. You have to put yourself in a position to be so called lucky, that's skill. And that position is called opportunity.

[JimMcDosh]

AI suspect its probably a little bit of BOTH. A little dumb luck never hurt anyone you know.
www.anonymize.us.tc

[exnihilo-steve]

"Luck is the residue of skill."

[leecon--2008]

With Steve Jobs' return with NeXT in hand, Apple was able to migrate to Mac OSX using
virtualization of OS9 "rosetta" thereby leaving legacy systems and apps behind, something Microsoft did not want to risk with it's large legacy base. OSX moved to the future and MS stuck with the past. Plus all the other points that have been mentioned:
iPod, iTunes, iMac, iPhone, etc.

[Asten77]

Don't forget that Microsoft made a $150m investment that helped saved Apple in 1997 when they were reeling from massive layoffs, MacOS sucking worse than ever, Copeland going nowhere, and basically struggling to survive.

[ironman76]

I think it is pure skill combined with some very clever marketing. Look at the Genius feature recently introduced in iTunes. It is simply a rehash of the last.fm idea, but with a commercial twist. It works very well and I have already purchased plenty of music recommended by genius. I am sure the iTunes sales figures will see a major boost this quarter.

<a href="http://www.eeepcstore.co.uk"> Robert S </a>