Comments on: Winner takes all in open source: The MySQL example

First-mover advantage may well be insurmountable in open source.

[tristanbob]

I agree with the network effects of open source software. There is a point of critical mass where the adoption of open source increases exponentially.

People don't use open source software because:

1. They don't know about it - "You mean I don't have to pay for this office software suite?"
2. They don't know anyone else running it - "I don't want to be the guinea pig!"
3. They can't run their applications on it - "They don't (yet) make a Linux version of Photoshop"

Once these problems are addressed by critical mass and the network effect, the barriers to adoption are removed. Keep your eyes open for this to happen, it will be fun to see!

[debwoods_nc]

Interesting to see still such a large number of Alfresco downloads on non-open source databases. With 29% on Oracle ,Sql server and DB2, Data shows a need for enterprise capable solutions. Ingres at the time of this report was not certified to run with Alfresco.

I concur with your views on finding a different way to reach out to users, tighter integration is key. Finding ways to reduce costs while simplifying the solution will be the way forward.

[joncweaver]

There are always more than one way to accomplish any goal. The also rans just have to figure out how to make their implementation/strategy seem more compelling. Once they accomplish that they stand a viable chance of making inroads on the market place. Of course, finding that compelling story is easier said than done.

Jon Weaver
XAware.org

[billxa]

Venture Capital investors seem to agree that there is only room for one big winner in each open source category. I invested a lot of time over the last year talking with top software VCs about open source investments. They seem to have converged on the "room for only one" , and "all or nothing" theory as a major risk factor for making open source software bets. This shared believe is a contributor to a slowing rate of VC investment in OSS. I'm not too sure this is a rational analysis. As open source grows into a larger overall share of the software market, there will be more than one significant winner per category. Still, even if its not an "all or nothing", the market leader can expect an exponentially bigger pay day. This is not unique to open source software. It is well worth playing to win your category. Bill Miller, XAware.org