Comments on: Digital downloads will be Blu-ray's downfall

DVD was the king of packaged media for a decade, but next-generation format successor Blu-ray Disc won't enjoy nearly as long a reign.

[Dtmodttl]

I totally agree

Consumers don't care strongly about fidelity, as the current situation with MP3s shows--DVD-Audio and surround mixes, et cetera just never caught on, because they're less convenient. The same will be true of Blu-Ray versus slight lesser quality video downloaded. Many people won't care about the quality loss.

That said, I don't think the situation (Blu Ray verses downloads) will be as stark as it is with music. In the US at least, perceptive differences in video seem to matter much more than with audio. Bad rock music from the 1960s is still very popular here and is mimicked by younger musicians. It is the dominant music form. It is as, or more, concerned with style and culture and politics as it is with the actual music. Yet, the lo-fi video quality is less tolerated.

Nonetheless, many people won't care about the higher fidelity of Blu-Ray.

[smokified]

Are you serious?

Speak for yourself man. What you really mean to say is that YOU don't care much for fidelity. People would not be spending all the money they do on digital surround sound stereos and 60" HD TVs if they did not care about having the best audio and visual quality possible.

Your comments are far off and people already care about HD content, which is why all of these large companies that employ millions of people who are all smarter than you have spent so much money on developing these new technologies, including BluRay.

[cbowser814]

People will always want something like a DVD

While digital downloads are great, there will always be a desire to "own" something. Also, not everyone has, or wants, broadband. Some areas, notably rural, don't have access to high speed internet. For those people and for those that want to own their movies so that they can watch them where ever, when ever DVD's will still be available.

[thrca]

Its like backing money with gold...

People want to secure their interests with something that wont change. Discs are just that. A good analogy of that is the US Treasury, they issue money, but have it backed by gold. Why? because if something happens to the money, they can fall back on the gold because it will retain its value even in collapse.

Now lets apply that to disc ownership. The industry thinks that everyone wants digital downloads, but the bandwidth is far from acceptable for this to be the mainstream, and when (not if, but when) a hard drive crashes, people don't want all their media and licenses lost along with it. Anyone who has stored a significant amount of digital date for more than a couple years probably knows that hard drives do not last forever, and I have yet to see many set top boxes with fault tolerant storage solutions.

I keep seeing "home media servers" being pushed down are throats with bigger and bigger hard drives, but no redundancy. I think its great that they are able to make 1TB drives and stuff them in a server, but they don't tell the average consumers that when that drive fails, you just lost 1TB of data.

[TheDaddyJDS]

Not anytime soon.....last mile capacity on a national level will not allow

It makes no difference how many companies invest in downloading technology UNLESS the Telcos, Cable Operators & ISPS [with local networks] ALL INVEST BILLIONS into last mile capacity...you know "the point of or ACTUAL CONNECTION between the service provider & the retail end user"....right now the downloads work because only a small percentage of consumers are using the service...once say 1% of the market tries downloading..it will all come to a screeching halt as there is nowhere near the last mile capacity to accommodate...not even 1% of 1%..it just isn't there.

My statements have ZERO to do with Blu-Ray or HD DVD and everything to do with the actual local networks all customers have to use for access to the internet with the exception of Satellite internet access or retail wireless internet access [WLAN / WWAN]

The ONLY Telco with the capacity is Verizon and this is only in areas where FIOS is available which is around 3% of Verizon's national footprint. Verizon only adds fiber or FIOS in areas of new construction where there has never been existing copper analog TDM / SS7 network or in areas where all existing copper analog TDM / SS7 network facilities are totally exhausted...they do this as needed & never make the investment ahead of the actual consumer demand.

So in 3% of Verizon's 38 state footprint customers can use downloads as opposed to Blu-Ray the other 98% of the USA cannot & will not be able to until all existing copper analog TDM / SS7 has been replaced with fiber...around 2020 [the year 2020 that is] maybe longer.

Fiber goes in the ground, not above it...trenching anyone? Cracking concrete, boring under roads, running fire-proof conduits to pull fiber through "from sea to shining sea"?????

Maybe in 15 or 20 years but not any time soon............

[gerrrg]

you're right....

but 'not anytime soon' is extremely vague.

Don't forget that 4G, WiMax and 100 Mbps cable are all slated to hit cities over the next year or two.

The last mile doesn't need to be fiber to reach the speeds required to stream live HD content, either.

[BaBaBooie]

It's a constant game of One-Upmanship

All those who are arguing against digital downloads are going to be lost to the 20th century. The future will be wireless, digital, and fast. Currently the US gov't is auctioning off blocks of spectrum to be used for widespread high-speed communications. Japan just launched a Satellite that can transmit at 1.2Gbps (not a typo). The speed will exist.

And as for those arguing against size, I can say that I've downloaded a handful of BluRay movies at approx. 5-7GB each and they are in perfect 720p quality. (my screen doesn't do 1080) Right now though they take overnight to D/L. Speeds will be able to match the size of these files and storage will continue to increase exponentially. I currently have just under 2TB of storage in my house, and can see that climbing to 5terebytes (5000gb) within a year. Storage is cheap people.

Finally, I know I won't be able to convince those who love disks otherwise, but they're no safer. I can scratch a disk, making it inoperable much easier than i can break my hard-drive. Scared of your computer crashing, and loosing all those movies you bought? Then the idea of a physical disk makes sense as backup, but not as the first choice. I'm too lazy to get off the couch and inset the disk.

Someone has to make the first move to really put this movement into gear. If no one steps up to make a hardware device then its up to the consumers to demand it. So people, lets make some noise.

[TheDaddyJDS]

But how many customers can the Japanese satellite support @ 1.2gbps?

But how many customers can the Japanese satellite support @ 1.2gbps? Exactly how many 1.2GB ports are available at any moment? a million???? several thousand?? and that is 1 country not 1% of the planet...what about everyone else? And in Japan more consumers get their internet from a cell phone than at home hard wired they are a vastly different culture than the US.

[CanadianGeezer]

Good comments - On The Money

I do believe that you have hit the nail on the head BaBaBooie ... The argument for a proprietary format and hardware is just not the direction the global society is headed towards ... Far too many people posting in here are 'insular' and have horizons confined to the USA or worse just in "The Valley" and fail to appreciate that high speed broadband is growing exponentially elsewhere on the globe ... many posters are consumer web surfers who are like the old school ?audiophiles? who forget that what the average Joe & Jane wants is ease of access ?cheaply and conveniently? in an ?Acceptable? quality ?Hence the rash of mini-Mp3 players etc etc

We live in a remote rural corner of Canada and via a dish and wireless internet can watch ?Live' TV and download respectable quality video quickly and efficiently ... Like you we have over 2TB of storage and we are constantly expanding our capacity ... the normal conversion of our avi?s to standard DVD?s for archive/back up, ?loaner? and transport purposes is easy ? i.e. when going to locations where we may only have access to a standard DVD player ? Some who have posted in here forget that one can easily ?convert? downloads of any format to any format if they want a tangible physical medium in their hand ?.

As one who has moved from cassette tape through seven different video storage/play mediums in the past 35 years I am aware of how quickly formats and hardware are replaced (I?ve been in broadcasting forty (40) years) ?

[MegaDeth859]

American Internet Infrastructure NOT Ready

The way the American internet infrastructure is set up, reaching speeds up to and surpassing 1MB/sec will take about 10 years. Americans need to learn a little from their Far East counterparts (Korea especially) on how to make a super fast internet highway before anyone, including bloggers, make exaggerated claims that blu-ray will suffer a quick and painful death to downloading.

[NErancher]

True broadband not available everywhere.

Perhaps for people in urban areas, but how about those of us that have access only to dialup or 2 way satellite? Fast DSL will not be available for many years, wireless is not an option (we still technically don't have good regular cell service). DSL is available in town, 15 miles away, but at $50 per month for 256Kbps service, not many have it, and look how many hours that would take to download something, not practical, and not going to change any time soon with no competition (cable company went out of business years ago due to lack of subscribers). I'm sure this is the case for others, there is a lot of open area between the cities that people live in, there are people there too you know.

[Edzila]

Sure, maybe in TEN YEARS....

Downloads won't make a dent for at least 10 years, HD file sizes are too large and the infrastructure of the internet is too thin, even in the biggest metro areas. What? Everybody is going to go gaga for content of marginal quality just because it's downloadable? I think not.

[tigergolf]

digital downloads vs blu ray

Downloads might have a couple of hiccups. For one the HD quality is not as good and if the utilities start charging for how much bandwith one uses it could cause problems.

[Brian Hudkins]

Blu-Ray

I am baffled why Bluy-Ray is being targeted by the media as the target of downloaded media, when the reality is that SD DVD will be the first to suffer if either format is signficantly impacted. The current bandwidth limitations favor SD formats, not HD. In addition the media owes it to readers to point out the drastic difference that exists in file sizes between Blu-Ray and downloaded offerings as this translates into significant performance and feature differences. Will downloaded media support high bandwith surround sound like Dolby and DTS HD formats? Perhaps the authors of these stories should be better informed before they put misinformation out for public consumption.

[smokified]

right on

word

[dsuden]

Boom, not Bust for Blue-Ray!

Does anyone seriously think people are going to trust their hard drives long-term as the method of storing the movies they buy as downloads? First, there isn't room to store a very large library by that method, and second, you can lose it all in a heartbeat if the drive fails. People who shell out hard cash for movies are going to want to make "hard copies" of their movies, and probably a couple of them, that they can store safely. Blue-Ray will do just fine.

[edgedesign]

Partially agree...

I'm not sure I agree that digital downloads will be the cause of Blu-
Ray's downfall, however it will surely slowdown that market. It's
already happing.

I know many people who have already opted for Apple TV or some
similar device/service combo. Sure, the quality isn't quite true HD,
but other benefits of having the content digital may outweigh that
slight difference.

The main benefit is being able to move that content around to
various devices. With Apple TV, I can download and watch a movie
on my HDTV. At any point, I can move that same movie to my
laptop computer, iPhone or iPod and continue watching. It will even
remember where I last left off. That's huge!

Other observations:

? The average consumer will not notice the quality difference
between Blu-Ray-quality HD and download-quality HD.

? You can usually begin watching an iTunes movie rental within 30
seconds to a few minutes. The movie will continue to download as
you watch. (my experience with cable modem and 802.11b wireless
router)

? Only the major movies studios could screw this up by limiting
digital content availability.

[Waam]

I actually like hard copies

I actually like hard copies. So if Blu is the standard hard copy version of a movie, I will buy that. Renting? I can go either way.

[abuscemi]

Fully Agree

I've been thinking this since the start of the format war. I don't need useless discs collecting dust. I'm fortunate to have fios in my area (20MB dl consistent) and with an xbox 360 to download HD movies (5GB or more) they are ready to play within 5-10 seconds. Not download fully that is but ready to play on average of 5-10 seconds folks. For anyone that would argue that the quality isn't as good as a physical disc, you're right but just barely. Most people can't notice the difference and don't care.

Once people have connections like fios everywhere and its easy and simple to DL HD content, discs become irrelevant in a similar way that audio CDs have become. Luckily with fios in my area for HD content that day is today.

[smokified]

Wrong

The amount of bandwidth it would require for the entire world to be able to instantly stream true HD A/V content would be astronmical in relation to today's standards. Digital downloads will continue to be a top contender for a long time, but there will always be the need for that portable physical storage. There is also nothing more fullproof for keeping data safe than properly maintanied optical media.

The only thing that will keep BluRay from being around for a while is the pending advancements in solid state storage technology. Once we have 100-200GB flash drives at consumer pricing...bye bye moving parts forever.

[CanadianGeezer]

The world is bigger a persons backyard

Posters are well advised to please try to stay aware of a changing world outside of their own neighborhood ... The following links to articles give a smidgen of a glimpse at what is happening ... but all should read much more ... There are millions of us 'Non-Americans' who are finding downloading a simple solution to content access ... Now if only they made more worthwhile content!!!

http://www.rlslog.net/japan-launches-high-speed-internet-satellite/

http://www.rlslog.net/eu-invests-20m-into-bittorrent-project/

I live in the north of Canada and already receive unlimited wireless high speed at an affordable fixed rate with no 'overage' charges ... Nuff Said!

The majority of people are quite content with avi-=standard definition video at a near zero cost ... a simple truth ... Many are slow to wake up and smell the coffee because of an 'insular' vision and rather narrow peripheral sightline ...

Downloads and other form factors have already made Blu-Ray yesterdays technology ?.

[BaBaBooie]

Re: Boom, not just Bust for BluRay

I usually don't bash people's opinions because we're all entitled to them...but come on dude. You can't store a large library digitally? Staples has a 400GB WD hard drive on sale this weekend for $70, sounds cheap to me.

You can lose it all in a heartbeat...or you can learn about computers and set up your harddrives in a RAID5 format protecting the data. The rate of drive failures not due to dumb-ass people is below 1 in a million.

And seriously, make "multiple" backups. I do not know anyone, maybe you do, but where are these people who make multiple copies of movies? I dont know a person who has ever copied a movie for "backup" purposes. BluRay will do just fine...for a couple years.

[Deanzsyclone]

RE: Boom, not just Bust for BluRay

I don't usually bash peoples's opinions either, but seriously dude do you think the majority of people out their will be taking the time to figure out how to back up thier video library? I've met ALOT of people doing my buisness and I cant recall even ONE that took the time to figure out what drive they need, spend the money on it, then take the two minutes it takes to install it, then take the time to figure out how to copy/save/backup thier video download they bought, if it wasn't even drm protected in the first place. This is planet earth and 90% of people are to busy, lazy, or simply not tech savy enough like you and me to do such a thing. Blu-ray will be around for YEARS to come.
NOT to mention how **** poor the HD downloads look in comparison to a full blown blu-ray UNCOMPRESSED version of the same movie looks, that alone will be it reason enough to keep BR for many years.
I run my movies on a projector and a 123" inch screen, and do it your self home theatres are poping up every where. Imagine how bad that compressed HD download would look on future 100"+ screens, I don't have to imagine, Iv'e seen it allready, and it's not pretty, heck even my HD sat and cable provider's HD signal can't compete with blu-ray/HDDVD picture qaulity. This is a no brainer! At least for us savy enough to figure it out.

[riegler.d]

Bluray is owned music; digital downloads are vapor

Most consumers don't pay for downloaded music, especially older consumers, who rarely download music at all. If paid ownership is the goal of the studios, they should look at the music industry for a great example of how DRM ruins the stew for everyone. Most folks, if given the opportunity, will be honest citizens and pay for value received. Having been a consumer of (paid) downloaded music and video content, I can tell you that DRM has made it a hassle to even use the content I downloaded on the devices I own. Sure, I can watch shows and listen to music on my iPod that I've downloaded legally, but if I want to, say, store them to a CD or make a backup of the stuff I have already paid for, I'm outta luck. Fair use dictates that I should be able to do that.

But that's beside the point. We were talking about why folks won't download content, including HD video. If I pay thirty bucks, I want more than a license. I want a package; I want a hard copy of whatever it is I paid for; in short, I want a movie. A file isn't a movie. And if you are expecting my mother to fork over thirty bucks for something she's gonna have to spend a few hours downloading (she's still got dialup, after all), you'd better figure out a way to get broadband to every person on the planet.

[lil-yankee]

Ridiculous Article, Seriously

Look at the cd's for example. How fast is it to download a song or a cd over the internet? very fast over seemingly any connection
but still people want to buy the cd.
Is the same quality and you have the chance to only pay for the tracks that you actually want, but still people want to get the disc.Now think about how many people have a connection strong enough to download a movie that could be anywhere from 10 to 20 gigs in size. Furthermore, the people that can afford the space required in order for you to save it. Most people would have to get new external drives that are not so expensive but are a separate expense. Apart from that they would have to get new internet connections that are arround t4 speed for a decent download time that would still be a few hours. Given those facts alone I think are enough to turn people away, but there are other issues. How about taking your movie to your friends house, anyone?
how would you carry the movie to the other place? you think apple or sony or warner bros are going to allow you to rip as many copies as you want? let me tell you not. As long as these things are not taken care of, HD-Downloads are not going to take off. Some people are going to download a few movies, but dont expect them to have their library saved on a hard drive for the next 10 years, is not going to happen now.

[kidicarus95]

Digital download NO way

If digital download is going to win, what is the point of having a 1080P TV. The best download will give is 720P. People that say digital download will win, they might as well stick with plain DVD which gives 1080i with an up convert DVD player. Seriously, people that say digital download will win, probably can't tell the differences between HD and none HD. Not to mention digital sound for those who have a nice surround sound system. Currently downloads compress sound.

[triplec123]

try torrents

i tunes and other simalure sites suck

[etakasaki]

You forecast of DVD and BD-DVD's death is sorely premature.

1) The technology is several years away and only a very small percentage (your typical first adopters) will be happy with the downloads.
2) There is no compelling reason to change. Disks are convenient, video stores are ubiquitous, and Netflix and BB can both each deliver a DVD within a day.
3) I like the special effects and other options available on a disc. I'm sure a lot of other people do too.
4) Current and probably future "on demand" services has miserable selection. It either has the very latest movies (good) or utter crap. Typically, older, cultish, or classic movies are nowhere to be found. I can get anything on disc.
5) Nobody seems to talk about TW's onerous plan to cap bandwidth and impose a huge surcharge on "excess" downloads. After so many download, the cost per movie would be prohibitive. If TW and other ISPs are already considering ways to generate revenue off of large downloads now, don't you think that would be an impediment in the future?

Bottom-line, I think that the new technologies are cool and I will probably be one of those first (maybe second) adopters. But there are too many people who are not motivated to upgrade to the "latest and greatest" since the incrmental cost/benefit for throwing out DVDs and BR-DVDs will be small (compared with that of CD vs vinyl, and DVD vs. VHS).

JMHO.

Cheers.

[ewelch]

Nonsense

Of course, the lack of serious download bandwidth makes this
article just so much hype. C|Net obviously chose not to even
think for 10 seconds before repeating this nonsense.

Downloading will be killed by the gatekeepers. Cable companies
and DSL companies that don't want to allow competition for
cable video-on-demand. That's the bottom line.

When we see how much faster the pipes are in Korea and India
and other places than they are here it just puts the lie to such
nonsense. EVERY hotel I stayed at in India had faster wireless
Internet than EVERY hotel I've stayed at in America. Okay, so it
was slower in Arusha Tanzania. And it was nonexistent in
Bogotá. But there are plenty of places in the world that makes US
infrastructure look like a joke in comparison. There's no way
they're going to let you download the equivalent of a Blu-ray
disc every other day. No freaking way.