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It is just like the HDTV that you get from cable/satellite. They use compression to save bandwidth. You actually get a better HDTV from the free over-the-air signals.
Jan 11 '08 (Updated Jan 22 '08)
The Bottom Line The subject of Downloadable Content vs. Blu-ray Disc has recently become a Hot topic of discussion. Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media? Let's try to find the Answer.
This is a new subject that has been popping-up on various Electronics News report columns.
OK, lets' look at the "Movie Download vs. Movie Disc" subject a little closer. We will dissect it in a way that will allow us to try and determine the future of the digital HD Movie Download.
These are some of the Freedoms that I am able to enjoy because I own a Blu-ray player (Playstation 3) and Blu-ray Disc collection.
I watched my Blackhawk Down Blu-ray about 8X during this past year. I watched my Pan's Labyrinth Blu-ray 4X since it's release. I watched the Simpson's Movie on Christmas Night and then again last night, almost 4 weeks later, with my little cousin. I also let my brother borrow my 300 and 28 Weeks Later Blu-ray discs. My friend Mike let me borrow his Ghost Rider Blu-ray and I lent him my Casino Royale Blu-ray. I brought my TMNT Blu-ray to my friend Jay's house to see how it looked on his new Samsung DLP flat screen and PS3. It looked and sounded amazing. I bought Pathfinder on Blu-ray for $29.99, watched it, then sold it on eBay for $26.00 + $2.00 shipping.
Ok, that's what I've done with a few of my Blu-ray movies.
Now let's look at the advantages and disadvantages of the Digital HD Movie Download:
1. Does the HD Movie Download allow me the same freedoms in portability that the Blu-Ray Disc does? No. You can only view a Downloaded movie on the device that it was downloaded to.
2. Can I borrow and Lend downloaded movies with friends and family? No. You would have to lend or borrow the whole device or console that holds the download.
3. Can I watch a Downloaded Movie numerous times over the course of a Year or the course of a month for that matter? No. Digital Download Movies are only good for a predetermined term or limited length of time. Usually 24 hours.
For example, Microsoft offers Digital Movie Downloads on their XBoxLIVE service, which costs $50.00 per year. The Downloadable movies vary in price and are not included in the XBoxLIVE subscription fee. Movie Downloads from XBoxLIVE can be viewed an unlimited amount of times for the first 24 hours. Plays after that period will cost the same as the initial download. The downloaded Movie files are in Windows Media VideoHD (aka;VC-1,WMVHD) format at 720p resolution, 6.8Mbps video with 5.1 surround sound. The average Movie download is 4 - 5gb.
4. Are Digital downloadable Movies available in Full HD, 1080p with lossless Audio? No. Not yet. There is no date for the availability of full resolution Downloads.
The only advantage or benefit, that I can see, in Downloading Movies would be, it saves you a trip to the store. If you are home sick, the weather is bad, it's after 10pm and all the Electronics stores are closed or you're just feeling a little bit lazy, downloading a movie is fine.
To me, downloading a Movie is no different than purchasing a movie from your Pay-Per-View service. In some cases Pay-Per-View might even have more of an advantage because you don't have to wait the download time and if you have TiVo you can watch it until you delete it.
The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
Standard DVD replaced VHS, Blu-ray replaced DVD and Digital Downloads will replace Blu-ray, right? Wrong. Here is why:
While compiling information about a subject or subjects, in order to complete a proper hypothecation, you will need to make sure that the variables that you are using are in accordance with one another and can be related to one another.
So the question is, "Can we compare DVD's replacement of VHS with Blu-ray's replacement of Standard (STD) DVD?" The answer is No. DVD ultimately rendered the VHS Tape useless. Blu-ray is not replacing DVD or rendering the DVD format useless. Blu-ray is simply an expansion of DVD.
If you own a Full HD Home Theater with Blu-ray player, the Standard DVD format can and will be integrated into your Movie, Concert or VideoGame collection in some way. The standard DVD can not only be viewed using a Blu-ray player, but the STD DVD can be viewed at a higher resolution using a process that most Blu-ray players feature. This process is called upscaling.
VHS and DVD are in no way interchangeable, which was the reason for the subsequent discontinuation and elimination of VHS.
Not only are the STD DVD & VHS forms of media non-interchangeable with one another, but the gap in technology between DVD and VHS is far greater then the gap between Blu-ray and DVD. The reason there is such a large gap between DVD and VHS is that DVD is a completely different technology than VHS, where as Blu-ray evolved from DVD and is of the same technology.
Here's another way to look at the DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison:
1.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the egg (DVD)?
2.What came first, the chicken (Blu-ray) or the Elephant (VHS)? You can't ask that question because it's not relative to what we need the answer for.
This is why "The DVD vs. VHS Comparison in relation to The Blu-ray vs. DVD Comparison" cannot be used to determine an answer to our question, which is, Will Digital Downloadable Movies replace Disc media?
The Downloadable Movie vs. Downloadable Music comparison:
I think this is where analysts and columnists make their biggest mistake when trying to evaluate the future of digital media.
You can not compare downloading movies with downloading music. A full catalog of Music does not require a large amount of Hard Drive space. One single HD Movie with 1080p resolution, 7.1 lossless Audio and Bonus Features could, in some cases, require 20gb to over 50gb of space depending on the movie. Just think of how much space you would need to retain a downloaded version of the Godfather Box set in Full HD.
Music Downloads are portable via an MP3 device such as the IPod. Downloadable Movie content is not portable. Music Downloads are permanent and do not incur future costs on the owner. Movie downloads have a limited viewing time.
As a consumer, I do not want to spend money on a movie that I am only able to view for a limited time. In that case, I might as well go to the movie theater and get my money's worth. I'd much rather order something from Pay-Per-View which I can TiVo. I want to watch my movies when & where I feel like watching them. I want to lend movies to my friends and family. I also want to borrow movies from my friends and family. To me, that is a small part of what makes owning a movie collection fun.
In my opinion, Movie Downloads is an option that is loaded with restrictions and costs to the consumer. Digital Movie Downloads, Pay-Per-View and Divx are more comparable to each other than Movie Downloads and Disc Media are to each other. For now, the Movie Download is a very long way from replacing Blu-disc/DVD media.
Movie Downloads have their place in the industry, but they will never take over as the industry standard. For now it's just another option to Pay-Per-View.
HughesNet/Earthlink. Downloading up to about 100MB probably
compares, in speed, to DSL. After that, speed drops to about
15-30 KB. The link requires about 12-24 hours of power-down to
rebuild. From experience I know that downloading a movie
is not an option. I suspect there are many in this situation.
5 mbits is the slowest, but speeds can go up to 50 mbits: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Verizon_FiOS
"Comcast customers--and there are far more of them than Fios customers--have speeds today that vary widely, but 187 kilobytes per second in real-world tests is a good estimate. Assuming a one-hour high-definition TV show (with commercials) is around 5GB, that requires 1,388,888 kilobytes per second or 1.38 megabytes per second to watch."
This is true, but Comcast is already offering 12 and 16 megabit speeds (at least in my area). Also, my guess is that most people won't mind watching compressed versions. For example, the 720P version of one of my favorite shows (<30 mins) is a little over 500 MB, which is easily streamable on any fast cable or slow fiber connection. It still looks good on my computer or HDTV.
"So Fios is about halfway there about at best, and Comcast's 100 megabit per second connection, which it promised at CES would be a reality by 2009, could pull it off."
DID YOU RESEARCH AT ALL??? (sorry for caps, but geez). Fios STARTS at 5 megabits. Sigh.
won't play on 80% of the devices sold on the market.
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/02/21/technology/personaltech/21pogue.html?ex=1204261200&en=97819541f9e850be&ei=5070&emc=eta1
I think its very important to note that the speeds you are talking about, verizon fios, is an expensive pursuit, many people still have basic dsl and some places still use 56k modems. Physical media you say made 24 billion? geez, how much money do these people want? I think this needs some more reevaluation. I give blu-ray, 10 more years defenitely.
The only place i see getting these sort of delivery systems anytime soon is japan. They just sent a satellite into space that should deliver very high speed connection. They are way ahead of us. The US is lacking, and their price models for the internet is horrible, they just suck wateva they can and people simply don't pay.
Nice dream though.
So, in the real world, digital downloads are a distant twinkle in the distance for most people. That is not to say that those in a position to take advantage of it don't. I have DSL at 6mbps and live very close to my telco CO which affords me a about 5.5mpbs. I watch movies on my Xbox 360 and Netflix Watch Now. If the rumor holds true that Netflix and MS are going to partner up and make Netflix Watch Now movies available on the Xbox, I would venture to guess that I will be getting most of my movies via downloads.
The term "HD" is thrown around way too loosely. While 720p may be in the HD spec, maybe there should be a different term for it, like "Extended Definition". HD should mean 1080p with enough data throughput to minimize compression artifacts to the point that they unnoticeable to all but the most picky observers.
iTunes and XBox 360 "HD" downloads don't cut it. They are 720p. HD over Cable and to a lessor extent over FIOS, have too many glaring and distracting compression artifacts (blurring of detail in still frames, and turning into a blocky mess on practically all motion).
As far as I am concerned, the actual resolution of a video is the resolution to which it must be downscaled to hide compression artifacts. That should be the bottom line in terms of video resolution.
And, if I want to lend the movie that I just downloaded to my friend, what exactly do I do? Do I load the Microsoft Home Server in my pickup truck and set it up at my friend's house?
but I won't be buying a Blu-ray player or discs and will be going
with the Apple TV service when we change our TV (current one isn't
even widescreen, let alone HD). The Internet service is definitely
good enough in Belgium for this delivery and I honestly don't see
the point in a disc medium for rentals, which is pretty much all we
use our DVD player for. If the movie selection is good then this
wins over Blu-ray easily.
I still want a BlueRay player (gonna buy a PS3 now that this HD war is over), and i still want to own the physical movie on disk.
Never mind people like my mom... who can't even log on to the PC i built her without help.
BlueRay will do fine. 4-5 years it will be the standard.
Take for instance, you list in your article Vudu, and Apple TV... No one is buying these items, but a quick look at Amazon.com you'll see that people are indeed buying Blu-ray disks, players and PS3s.
Also you indicate that you Blu-ray disks are $20-30 but you can digitally download movies @$5 a pop. No, you can't. Take Vudu for instance, the price for their Hi-Def films are the same as their blu-ray counterparts. Not to mention, the quality isn't as good, both visually and audibly.
Top ten reasons downloads will at best be a Blu-ray counter part.
1. People like owning movies on a bookshelf, not on some box that can break and they can lose everything.
2. Giving movies as gifts is extremely popular, no one wants a digital download gift.
3. Can I borrrow movie X? No you can't it's on my Vudu. No sharing allowed.
4. I want to play my movies from my hand held disk player for my airplane ride. Too bad, you can't take your Vudu/apple tv with you.
5. It's 6 o'clock and everyone in the area is using their high speed internet. My movie is taking too long to download.
6. I can burn my HD home movies to blu-ray and share them. Um.. How do I do that with my Apple TV/Vudu?
7. I can burn pictures to my blu-ray disks and play them on my blu-ray player.. Um...
8. Blu-ray has better audio and video quality than anything else. Why do I not want that?
9. What do I do if I go over my capacity on my Vudu/Apple TV? Erase movies I paid for? Oh I have to buy something else!??! :rolls eyes:
10. Soon I'll be able to burn any HDTV program onto a blu-ray disk using a recordable set top player and take it with me. How do I do that with Vudu and Apple TV?
No.2 You can give a digital download as a gift, and even e-mail them the link.
No.3 Who on earth, likes lending their dvd's to anyone? Neighbors? With DVD at least you can rip an emergency backup, not with BluRay.
I like saying, sorry can't lend it to you it's on my device only, that's a benefit!
No.4 Sure you will, you transfer digital file to portable device, easy.
No.5 You will have plenty of unseen downloaded movies already, no need to wait till 6 pm to start downloading. Like running to store in rush hour to buy bluray, it's just avoided. simple.
No.6 You can still share your home movies, bring your camcorder with you, what makes you think all your friends will have bluray anytime soon?
No 7 You can put pictures on CD or DVD and share them, they don't require 50 gb storage, get real, how big are your pictures?
No.8 Well unless you are 18, chances are your hearing has decreased, we loose frequencies we can hear each year, and dvd and TV with 5.1 seem perfectly acceptable to 99% of population, who has extra $2,000 to upgrade amp to trueHD capability anyway?
No.9 Just buy another external HD, if you want that big a movie collection. Most people only whatch a few musicals over and over the rest you can do by VOD for less than owning them anyway.
No.10 LOL, That's the funniest of all, forget that price of set top bluray recorders will be like $3500 when and if available but they will never allow you to copy any copyrighted HD material to NluRay to share with friends or collect.
Nope it's better copy protect than current DVD recorders and in future the bit will be activated to prevent any copy, That's why they invented HDCP over HDMI, so forget that idea!
the past when the computer came to town? Now we're swimming in
it.
Until HD movies provided via the net can match Blue-ray detail the
technology is not going anywhere. That's not happening anytime
soon if throttling back Comcast has their way.
and i pay a lot of my bills electronically.
and i don't bother to ask companies for their printed materials on their products, i just go online and grab the pdfs straight from their websites.
some of us use a lot less paper than others.
Now if you carry cash of any significant amount, you look like a drug dealer. Heh.
I agree with the reasons given by bperez1172 and others here for why this prediction is utterly ridiculous. For me, it comes down to:
1. Ownership. I collect DVDs (3,000+ at last count), books and other things. I love having a real library. I can watch a movie whenever I want, or as many times as I want, and never pay any more. I can lend or give them to others. I can even sell them and recoup some of my investment. If the whole "rental" argument were such a good idea, why don't we rent more of the things we own?
2. Tangibility. Sure, discs go bad, but very few of mine have. I prefer being able to see and hold these assets rather than rely on something unseen and intangible, that someone else ultimately controls. I also like displaying the cover art, etc.
3. Extra Features. As the NYT article pointed out, you don't get the commentaries, making-of documentaries, deleted scenes or any of the other great special features that have been wonderfully added to today's DVDs in the on-demand model. And I'm sure the studios like this just fine! It costs real money and time to produce quality DVD supplements. I have no doubt that the studios would much rather see more of our money go right to their bottom line.
4. Compression and bandwidth. One of the reasons people have been most excited about the new high-def disc formats is that they can hold so much more information, meaning that audio and video don't have to be compressed as much. And like it or not, we'd have to see bandwidth and storage take a quantum leap upward for high-quality, high-def video on-demand to be viable for the mass market. Compression detracts from both the audio and video quality of on-demand downloads, as the NYT piece - and especially, the comparative review it references - makes very clear. And it's not just about my bandwidth. It's about mine, plus my neighbor's, plus their neighbor's, etc. Media providers will have to rely on aggressive compression for a long time to come, and this need will increase as more people use their services.
5. Selection. Thankfully, we've reached the point where there are tens of thousands of works available on DVD, everything from concert videos to obscure silent films to those grisly driving safety films they used to show to school kids back in the day. How long will it take to have anything approaching that rich diversity available for download?
I say, keep pressing lots of high-quality discs with commentaries, seamless branching and other features; and let me own them, share them with my friends, take them on airplanes and enjoy them whenever I want. I don't see DVD and Blu-ray being displaced for many, many years to come.
c|net really blew it with this one.
BP
But to move on, these arguments have been brought up in the past by others regarding another format. Compact discs. Remember them? Don't tell me, you probably own over 10000 of those too, right? The fact is many people don't really care if they own the actual physical CD or have the music simply stored on their ipods, mp3 players, computers, or even mobile phones. It's having access to music and the convenience that many care about. The same will eventually apply to movies.
People are getting used to acquiring media instantly. What has happened with music will eventually happen with movies. Will it happen overnight? Of course not, but will Blu-ray be the leading format this year, next year or even the next? Definitely not.. and not even close IMO.
Most people are happy with DVDs and that is a fact. Most people don't even have newer 1080p resolution high definition TVs, another fact. Most are also not eager to fork out 400-500 dollars for the player, plus start paying an extra $10 per movie.
Many quickly dismiss HD downloads as being far off because everyone does not have high speed internet, and the speeds are still not fast enough. But what they are forgetting is that a lot of people dont care about true HD, and value convenience more. If they had the option to press a button and watch any movie in non HD many would take it. Call it laziness, but after a hard day of work some folks are not so keen on getting in their car, driving to the local video rental store, spending time browsing through the movies, waiting in line, and then driving back home again. And of course the movie still has to be returned at a later date. If given the option, some would jump at the chance to browse movies on their TV screen, click purchase and begin watching a (non HD) movie a minute later. This can already be done with apple tv and the xbox360.
Then comes the argument about true HD downloads not becoming a reality anytime soon, and that many don't even have high speed internet because of their location and other excuses. Those who read up on current technology will know that a company called XStreamHD will be BETA testing a HD download service via satellite in Q2 of 2008. No need to wait for the speed increase or high speed internet to be available in your rural town. Just slap the small satellite on your roof and you're in business.
Then there is other technology such as SD cards. This year we will see chips with the same storage capacity as Blu-ray, yet expensive. In 3 years the price will be the same as a 1gb card sold today. TV makers like Panasonic have recently displayed HD sets with a built in card reader capable of playing true HD content. Where will this technology be in 2 or 3 years time?
The point is consumers will have choices in the coming years, but for now the biggest competition will be the standard DVD. And you can expect that battle to continue on for years.
No!
Why will this be any different?