Comments on: Gates: Internet to revolutionize TV in 5 years

Microsoft founder Bill Gates tells the audience at the World Economic Forum that in five years, people will be laughing at what we today call TV.

[hadaso]

I quit watching TV for the same reasons ...

I quit watching TV almost 10 years ago because it was a mostly frustrating experience unless you settle for the lowest common denominator.

Most content was dull, and even when there was something I thought was worth following it was often impossible to follow as schedules were never fully followed. Work meant I had to record TV to video, and often what resulted was another program recorded because someone thought something current was more important and shifted the whole schedule.

Eventually I gave it up completely, and in retrospect I can see it was an addiction. Most of what people watch in TV are "talking heads": people talking to each other,with lots of money going into maiking the surrounding look attractive to the passive viewer. Radio has the same, with all efforts going into content. Most of what TV delivers is done better through radio or through written media, and written media is the web.

There are only 24 hours a day. Most of them are used for eating/sleeping/hunting (hunting in the 21st century usually means handling paperwork in an office). The web provides more than enough stimulation for the time left. There is no time left for browsing through dull TV content hoping to accidentally find some of the very few gems. It is much easier to find gems in the web, with its many millions of content providers. And all this is before one considers participation - you can interact with people on the web. You cannot do it with mass media broadcast.

[Mendz]

Bill Gates Dreaming Big Again...

I think Bill Gates is getting a little bit, too, excited here. Although it might happen, yes. But 5 years?! Hmmm... http://etmendz.spaces.live.com/blog/cns!1A81F2FEB7C8E062!215.entry.

[GGGlen]

He's correct...

In 5 years, people will be streaming most of their content from
Apple's iTunes, through their Apple TV set top boxes, to their Hi-
Def TV's.
Only thing is... Bill won't be a part of it ;-)

[Mergatroid Mania]

Here we go again

Coming from the guy who said "No one will ever need more then 640k of ram", you'd think he'd learn to keep his mouth shut.

Anyone wanna bet that in five years, people will not be laughing at how we viewed TV today?

This is right up there with kitchen appliances connected to the net. It might be available, but how many people do you know with such an appliance?

I agree with what you said. It might happen eventually, but not in five years.

[MacGregory]

Why do we think this is news?!

Gates has spent the last ten years living off of the monopoly that
he helped create a couple of decades ago and we treat him like
he was the real innovator.

C'mon Bill, MS mostly innovated OEM contracts, not software
and not in visioning the home. Just enough stealing from
Apple's Mac os's and just enough buying out smaller innovative
companies and just enough partnerships with big business to
create scales of magnitude to be the framework for computing,
but very little vision or innovation actually came or comes from
Redmond.

Bill telling us TV will come from the Internet is like Bush telling
us we are addicted to oil. Thanks for the insight, but my 8-year
old figured that out years ago!

[gw188397]

I agree -- Gates is no visionary

Look at Microsoft's initial (pre-internet) attempt with MSN. And look at it's MSNBC venture. Or the current MSN. Or Windows Live. Look at its attempts to grab content market-share with Windows Media Player. Or its attempts to make the Internet "Windows-only" with proprietary tags and ActiveX plug-ins. This is a company that doesn't "get it". I'm sure the Internet will influence television in the next five years, but it's not going to revolutionize it the way Gates thinks it will. And just wait until home users are paying for bandwidth. Streaming media is going to look a lot less attractive then.

[WJeansonne]

Gates is right on the money

The crass commercialism of the super bowl or sports in general, the ridiculous amount of commercial interruptions the is quickly making T.V. (and cable) a wasteland. Look at where F.M. radio is now. Nothing but a crazy mix of ads and music, which typically interrupted by loud mouth DJ's who think people want to listen them. A total turn-off to say the least. Personally, I can't wait to the death of the three major networks and liberal biased news.

The bottom line, pay for what you want see and to hell with all the adverstisements.

[gw188397]

I don't get it

You're all for a market economy, but you don't like what it produces (crass commercialism)? We already have PPV television and it has its niche. Personally I think that going to DRM-encoded content delivered over the internet is not going to be an appealing alternative. And I can't see people paying for most of the content that's currently on advertising-supported networks.

[WJeansonne]

Gates is right on the money

The crass commercialism of the super bowl or sports in general, the ridiculous amount of commercial interruptions the is quickly making T.V. (and cable) a wasteland. Look at where F.M. radio is now. Nothing but a crazy mix of ads and music, which typically interrupted by loud mouth DJ's who think people want to listen them. A total turn-off to say the least. Personally, I can't wait to the death of the three major networks and liberal biased news.

The bottom line, pay for what you want see and to hell with all the adverstisements.

[jabbotts]

the irony

We often look at TV from the viewer side seeing shows supported by advertising segments. The reality is that TV broadcast is advertising suported by whatever show will draw the most viewers to the ads.

I like that the superbowl ads have such high quality and that they will be available for viewing online (by the content providers) right after the superbowl. I dislike that the ad spots are close to religious icons to the commercialism faithful and that they ad spots shown during a children's game garner such premium fees.

I'm off topic. Point was, your comment is actually a great example of how tv is marketed to the viewer. It's always been a wasteland of ads attracted to whatever show brings the most viewings yet we continue to think that the show is the product.

[flashfast]

How true.

Yes. TV is just awful and when a teenager I used to love it -
simply because there was always a great movie to watch. Here in
Australia, now another state of the US I guess, those classic
movies are now pay per view, and the majority of TV is telling
me (for years now) how Proactive can get rid of my acne (which I
don't have), and all the shows are just mutant copies of dull
American ones. Unfortunately, TV here is even worse (I believed
it used to be the best in the world once) as all the ads scream
and shout at you. It's so bad that I often feel like walking into a
Harvey Norman store and screaming back. NO doubt I'd get
arrested for disturbing the peace, but at least they know what it
feels like when a late night TV wakes up a whole household (and
please don't tell me the mew law aboout increasing the volume
of ads works - it doesn't. they just scream and shout).

And, again in Australia, how could TV here be served over the
net, now that the government has sold off telecommunications
to the vampires who believe the internet is a luxury and their
right to extort exorbitiant monies in hidden charges from it's
users?

[Mark Greene]

Gates = Mr. Obvious and Mr. Wrong

Look back over the past, say, 10 years of Gates' predictions.
They're all some combination of:

a. Profoundly obvious -- for instance, laptops will become more
popular (90% of his predictions make you say "duh")
b. Profoundly related to products he's about to launch -- for
instance, ultramobile PCs will become popular
c. Profoundly wrong -- for instance, the majority of PCs would
be tablets by now

Basically, his predictions are never insightful.

No really, look back. I'm not just taking a cheap shot.