Comments on: The Apple phone flop

CNET News.com's Michael Kanellos says Apple should think again if it believes it can make a phone to match iPod's success.

[m.meister]

Lack of definitions

Sadly, your commentary is so vaguely defined that you can claim
victory no matter how successful Apple is or is not.

What defines a flop?

I believe the cell market is something like $10 Billion. So even
0.5% market share is $500 Million. You could call that a flop, but
$500 million is nothing to sneeze at. If you're measurement is
Apple needs to take 70% of the market, just like the iPod -- then
yes, it will flop by that definition.

Making predictions on the failure of a product that has not even
been announced is just plain silly.

Apple has been doomed to failure for the last 20+ years. Since
the definition of failure (or "flop") is undefined, pundits will be
able to claim their predictions were right on.

I suggest pundits at least WAIT for the actual product to come
out.

[dylan214u]

Grow Up Sonny

Things are a changing and some people just don't like it. Anybody can make a phone, just like PC makers. It's making an experience that counts and Apple 'gets it' whan it comes to that.

[RandyLado]

crApple will force you to buy 2 iPhones

You're going to need a second iPhone while the first iPhone is
being shipped out to have the battery replaced, the screen
replaced, the internal parts replaced and all the other problems
associated with crApple's ipods which are often known to fail
within the first few months.

[shadow slayer26]

Wow...crApple? wth is up with you?

Very interesting since I have never had any problems with any Apple product...sure other people have but most those other people have had a lot more problems with other products...for instance Windows. I havn't heard of one person who hasn't had a problem with Windows. If you want to talk about "crappy products" than you might want to lose your bias views out and consider everything.

Blind idiocy...the greatest and most dangerous form of idiocy.

[hlk99]

What

Get a brain. Where do you guys come up with this stuff? The
iPod is a portable device with a hard drive inside. It isn't
suppossed to be dropped or thrown or dropped in the toilet. But
then again your a poor guy pissed off at the world and Apple has
$10 billion in the bank.

I have an original iPod and it works fine. Its been published that
the iPod failure rate is less than 5%. And they've sold nearly 65
milllion of them. I can't say that about the last 2 phones i've
owned. Both LGs lost battery power and screens within 9
months. Go figure.

[rafaelde]

wrong !

Sorry Randy, i do not know about you, but I never had any
problems with my apple products, they work PERFECT !!!

[Dachi]

Sorry, Kanellos is correct

Despite the fact that almost none of the posters agree with him, I still have to say his points are all valid.

"Sometimes the majority only means all the fools are on the same side"

Even if the iPhone is a success, in the time it takes Apple to ink deal with the major cell phone carriers and ship volume, the other major players will have had time to look at their own deigns and improve on them.

Even in the best case scenario, there are still things that players like Samsung and Motorola are just going to do better than Apple.

I believe if implemented properly the iPhone could be a success, but I don't think Apple will correctly execute.

By this I mean an iPhone with a built in speakerphone connected to an iPod dock in your car. You could just suspend the music playback to answer the phone, but this makes too much sense to actually become available in a product that isn't just vapoware.

Longer term they could venture into WiFi connectivity and VoIP telephony (http://www.roughlydrafted.com/RD/Home/72A2033E-F9A5-4EDA-991D-E1F0178C6AF5.html) but today there would be no way to do that on a mobile phone without ending up with an expensive/kludgy all in one device that does nothing particularly well.

[Kevin Hendricks]

Amen

I was just about to write essentially the same thing. I don't think
Apple will simply release a phone just like every other phone on
the market. When it released the iPod it didn't just release
another mp3 player. Nobody has been able to reproduce it's
ease of use. I expect that with the iPhone (or whatever it will be
called) you will easily (and cheaply) be able to transfer files,
contacts, calenders, to-do's, etc. without a big hassle. That's
why the iPhone won't be a flop. It won't be a hassle. You will be
able to enter information by first putting it into your computer
and then syncing your phone. No more fumbling with keypads.
I would never use a Blackberry because I have big hands and I
hate fumbling with keypads.

The bottom line is that Apple makes products that are easy to
use. They just work. Easy to use sells. Therefore the iPod will
not be a flop.

And now I want to address Apple fans. Don't freak out every
time you see one of these articles. They don't hurt apple. Mac
sales have increased 32% over last year and will only increase.
You have to understand that when a tech writer wants a lot of
attention they simply write a story bashing Apple and then they
get a spotlight for a short time.

[dragonbite]

Not just Apple

If you want a lot of Attention you either mention Apple, Linux or Microsoft in the title and you are sure to get fans going (either for or against the said group)

[rocwoof]

Interesting to see how they cope with Verizon

VZW is notorious for "branding" the phones they offer with a clunky interface, and crippled features to make the owner buy more of their services such as for music (Vcast/hampered MP3 transfer/saving from any other source), and data ("unlimited" access, but limited amounts of data transfer, and summary cancellation if it "looks" like streaming to them). And since VZW is the biggest player in the US, their "rules" will be hard for Apple to ignore.

Irresistable force vs immovable object?

[rocwoof]

Interesting to see how Apple copes with Verizon

Assuming Kanellos is more wrong, and you are more correct, VZW is notorious for "branding" the phones they offer with a clunky interface, and crippling features to make the owner buy more of their services such as for music (Vcast/hampered MP3 transfer/saving from any other source), and data ("unlimited" access, but limited amounts of data transfer, and summary cancellation if it "looks" like streaming to them). And since VZW is the biggest player in the US, their "rules" will be hard for Apple to ignore.

Irresistable force vs immovable object?

[hlk99]

Amen

Hey. Your right, it doesn't hurt Mac sales at all. It only helps push it
more. Apple products work and they look good too.

Look at Microsoft last year. 80 % of their employees used an iPod
and at work no less. Folks read that and ... then they own one.

[drunkenmouse]

Were You Paid to Blast Apple?

I only ask because despite the RAZR craze, Motorola makes notably rubbish phones. I state this as an owner of one. The iPod didn't rise to the top just because of capacity, but because of Apple's dedication to seamless interaction with technology. As a recent Mac convert I will buy the iPhone if it works seamlessly with iTunes, iPhoto, iCal and Mail. Name one mobile that can potentially do that and has 4-8GB of storage?

[irisfailsafe]

underestimating apple again...

It seems that underestimating apple is sort of a tradition for the
industry. They always look at their upcoming products as they
are nothing special, regardless of how history has disprove them
again and again.
So did you believe the iPod would change the world? I bet you
thought it was just another mp3 player...

After the incredible eye for the market that Mr Jobs and his
company has showed (the fact they anticipated the market was
with the consumer and not the enterprise) do you think is wise
to underestimate them again?

You draw your conclusions from rumours you haven't seen the
phone yet. I suggest you learn from history before writing stuff
like this.

[derpat]

Not sure ...

I don't think Apple will enter in a mature market without some
good estimates of product penetration.
Since the mobile technology is mature the "phone" component of
the device is not a big issue, is the data integration with the
desktop and the derived functionalities that are adding utility to
the device and are going to differentiate the product from the
plethora of mobile phones.
It is true that if apple is targeting only the OSX users the market
is not very big (see iPod pre usb/windows).
From my point of view the choice is quite straightforward: if the
apple phone is working with my favorite carrier (area coverage)
and is integrated with osx in a way that will save me time and
headaches, I'm ready to pay the premium cost and switch phone.

[kriskkalu]

iPhone will sell more than iPod

Do you want to know why?

Well people in developing countries like Africa can spend $400
dollars on a phone but not on iPod. Because communication is
essential for them. The iPod in poor countries is only meant for
the really rich ones. But when it comes in the form of a phone,
then they have a reason to buy it.

Think about Japan, iTunes doesn't do well there because most
people use their phones to listen to music.

So with the iPhone, Apple will reach more people. I've given away
the iPod in the past as presents, but i don't have one myself, but
once the iPhone comes out, i'll surely get one.

As long as the iPhone is good enough, then it will sell more than
the iPod.

[Vegaman_Dan]

Locked and Loaded

How often do you change cell phones? How about cell phone service providers? Every two years people change their contracts and often cell phone providers require you to purchase a new phone. Heck, even if you change providers who are using exactly the same technology, you have to change phones as well to be compatible.

Do I want to pay to have to replace my iPod every two years because the cell service provider has changed something? That's an awfully expensive investment to have to throw away regularly.

I think I'd rather have a cell phone that can be changed out and an iPod that I can hold on to longer than that.

[Gorditon]

Strongly disagree

The phone, like the ipod, will be about simplicity and user friendliness. This alone (well, and marketing) will make it successful.

Soemthign like a medical device, apple will not have an advantage of. medical devices are compliciated technical mumbo jumbo that each component must work.

Apple = design
Medicine = technical

and when it comes to everyday devices, design is more important than technology.

[john55440]

"a wave of obligatory gushing."

>a wave of obligatory gushing.

Yup, when it comes to Apple, most of the media act like a bunch a swooning school girls, and/or
or like one of Steve Job's neutered poodles.:-)

[grehce]

Disagree: Cell phone market ripe for consolidation

We all know that there are a many phones on the market and ten new models that appear every quarter but few stick. While I agree that the cell phone market is incredibly competitive, market domination can be easily toppled as seen by Motorola surpassing Nokia in sales within the last two years.

Apple's ability to marry hardware and software into a technologically savvy device consumers love will set it apart from its competitors. Though I really don't care if my phone plays music because it is a phone first, Apple has shown in the past that it understands its consumers and can design very user-friendly products.

Motorola's user interface has scored low marks for some time and through personal experience, I've found that the UI in the Razr, Slvr, and other Motorola phones are designed poorly. Certain features take you through as many as 5 sub-menus to change. As slick as its phones look, the user experience is less than stellar. This opens up a great opportunity for Apple.

Though I do not expect the iPhone to sweep into the market top spot, I do expect that its introduction will force competition to innovate. The introduction of the iPhone is a win-win situation for consumers and likely a product to change the dynamic of the current cell phone market.

[TommoUK]

What an idiot...

Yes his point about cell phones being decent is true, but he fails to
point out the most important fact: the user experience of playing
music on those same cell phones is awful! That's what Apple will
fix, and that's what will be key to finally pushing the convergence
of portable music players and cell phones into acceptance. Many of
today's phones are good (if not great), but they are simply terrible
as music players compared to most dedicated music players, let
alone when compared to an iPod.

[Jimkimp3]

don't you use the iphone

Don't let me see you or your family members use an iphone. If so, you are a dog. An old dog.

[M C]

Congrats! You've provided the daily holy-war stokage for CNet!

You must be proud to be in journalism.

[DrtyDogg]

lol

so true, but it gets the pageviews, and with every comment read a different ad is on the page. Any Mac bashing, or Windows bashing C|net does = cash.

[KTLA_knew]

iBag

Now CNet owes me a new keyboard.

[dansterpower]

Current Phones are NOT Pretty Good

I am about the same age, make my living with technology, have
owned dozens of cell phones and am surprised that you
consider most cell phones "pretty good."

I could not disagree more.

In this it will not only be about design, but East of Use and a
user's ability to actually understand and be able to use MORE
phone functions -- that is the magic spot where Apple will strike
and why your logic will be proven incorrect.

Dante

[halesgarcia]

C|net is in Microsoft's pocket

I read this story after hearing a C|net reporter on a morning NPR
radio broadcast.

The C|net reporter on the radio was dissing the iPod and
claimed its 80% of market share is made up of people too
paranoid to switch to another player.

Then this reporter claims the iPhone is dead on arrival.

There's no denying that C|net is doing Microsoft's bidding.

[andrew77uk]

Agreed

People arnt dumb, if something popular flops, people wont buy it, its 80% because its a damned fine player!

[bob donut]

Wait till it comes out, ok?.

Usually, you're supposed to provide the criticism _after_ a product comes out.

Try writing about the criminal launch of the PS3 that's resulted in people being killed shot and even killed. That's something to criticize.

[Frederic Landreville]

You do not understands where Apple is going

Dude, you got your screws on too tight. It's not about the iPhone
or the iPod or the iMac (though I disagree with the article, the
iMac is selling sell and is beautifully designed).

It's about having YOUR CONTENT with you everywhere... Music,
TV and movies from iTunes on your computer, in your living
room, in your car, on that flight to London etc... get the idea?

Now just think what an iPhone can bring to this picture,
downloading tunes over the air without a PC... then you could
sync back to hear it in your living room stereo...

Apple will NOT copy BlackBerry.

If you have not seen WHERE Apple is going, you should not write
articles...

[SunshineMario29]

Who is the realistic market now?

Let's take a sober look at this. The majority (if not entire) initial buyers for an iPhone will be regular users of iTunes. Most people will buy the iPhone to be able play downloaded songs from the iTunes Music Store. The failure of the Motorola iTunes venture was solely due to the lack of simplicity of design (that and a laughable file capacity).

Downloading music via your cell phone is less needed as news, sports, and movie podcasts. Things that travelling people REALLY need. Fred is right. It's all about Content.

Now the iPhone will do what every other phone does, or needs to do: Syncronize with your PC/MAC. In the my imaginary Apple Computer Universe (The place where everything runs on Apple Hardware and Software). iPhone would seemlessly work iCal, iTunes, and iPhoto. .Mac users would be able to add a iPhone log to keep an running Photo page of photos you take on the road. All of this enhanced because Apple in its infinite wisdom included Wi-Fi to seemless switch with iCHAT now with the ability to call both other iCHAT/AIM users and actual phone numbers. The Wi-Fi included would also help cut down cell phone minutes and more importantly SAVE MONEY.

DISCLAIMER: In my Apple Universe, most of these features do not exist and the iPhone is the same price as the Shuffle.