Comments on: FAQ: HD DVD vs. Blu-ray

Microsoft and Intel want one format for new DVDs, Dell and HP want another. But why, and who, if anyone, is likely to win?

[Awesomebase]

Incorrect Assumptions

I too have been reading up on both technologies and I'm not sure that you've gotten a good, complete picture of what is happening in this industry.
First of HD-DVD did create a 3-layer disc that holds 45GB, but Blu-Ray already demonstrated a 4-layer disc that gets 100GB. In essence though, HD-DVD never claimed to have the advantage in this regard.
As far as "simplicity" in manufacturing goes, the advantage initially was for HD-DVD, but several delays have caused that advantage to disappear.
The main issue that is governing the decision of these companies has to do with the mode of protection. Microsoft, Sony, etc. I don't think even care whether one disc is 30GB or 50GB. What they care about is a) how easy is it for people to duplicate, b) what kind of new features can be included, c) performance in terms of throughput, d) cost of media and cost of hardware. Will HD movies do better in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I don't think anybody can answer that question. Even the proponents and developers of these technologies can't post specs that provide siginificant advantages. However, it seems to me that Microsoft and some Hollywood studios are intent on using their own proprietary technology and usage rights rather than having it developed using universal standards. That means that while HD-DVD may initially claim a cheaper media cost, they're fees for licensing the technology for each movie or HD-DVD content will be higher than that used for Blu-Ray.
As far as flash memory is concerned, there is certainly a market for that, but it isn't even close to being price competitive. Never mind that the vast majority of people want to own their media and not "subscribe" to it or leave its control in the hands of large corporations. That is an essential "value" component that has been largely missing from this debate. In any case, it looks like the market will decide one way or another...

[bcsaxman]

"You talkin ta me ...?"

It looked like you were responding to what I wrote - apologies if
that's not the case - so I thought I'd respond.

"... HD-DVD did create a 3-layer disc that holds 45GB, but Blu-
Ray already demonstrated a 4-layer disc that gets 100GB. In
essence though, HD-DVD never claimed to have the advantage
in this regard."

This gets back to the lab version vs. pilot versions ready to
manufacture. Both of these are lab versions, but in the case of
BluRay they haven't gotten even theri dual layer disks past that
stage yet. Doesn't this raise some flags for a quadruple layer
disk seeing the light of day? It does for me. Besides, once you
get to the 40-50GB level, larger capacities really become
esoteric advantages, given what these disks will primarily be
used for (buying movies and home PC backups).

"As far as "simplicity" in manufacturing goes, the advantage
initially was for HD-DVD, but several delays have caused that
advantage to disappear."

No, it hasn't. Those numbers I mentioned are the ones that are
quoted NOW - delays or no delays. The start-up costs of the
technologies involved are not subject to time factors; one
(BluRay) simply costs more than the other (HD-DVD).

"The main issue that is governing the decision of these
companies has to do with the mode of protection. Microsoft,
Sony, etc. I don't think even care whether one disc is 30GB or
50GB. What they care about is a) how easy is it for people to
duplicate, b) what kind of new features can be included, c)
performance in terms of throughput, d) cost of media and cost
of hardware."

I think you're sort of right about capacity not really being the
driving issue for either side, but the protection technology is the
same for both (AAC). The difference is HD-DVD consortium will
allow their disks to e copied to HDs for video straeming
purposes, while BluRay group will not. Also, for all the
interactive features, M$ wants their iHD technology to win
(which is on HD-DVD), and BluRay group wants BD-Java. And of
course, whoever wins, the backers will get royalty payments on
every disk and player made - big time money, for simply signing
on a dotted line. "Throughput" - how fast data is written or read
to disks - is about the same for both, I think. And cost of media
and hardware will very clearly favor HD-DVD - as I said, those
numbers (over $1 billion for BluRay start-up vs about S90
million for HD-DVD, total, are what's out there now).

"Will HD movies do better in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I don't think
anybody can answer that question. Even the proponents and
developers of these technologies can't post specs that provide
siginificant advantages... it seems to me that Microsoft and [the]
studios are intent on using their own proprietary technology and
usage rights rather than having it developed using universal
standards."

I can - They both deliver exactly the same product; High Def
content. So there is no performance advantages for either in
terms of the images you actually see. The iHD vs BD-Java
contest is where it becomes more of an open question. Which
one will deliver all the 'extras' better than the other? But frankly,
how 'gee whiz' do the menus and easter eggs have to be?
Nevertheless, these are the only "proprietary" technologies at
stake. And once one is chosen - officially or by a drawn out
market battle - it will become the universal standard.

"That means that while HD-DVD may initially claim a cheaper
media cost, they're fees for licensing the technology for each
movie or HD-DVD content will be higher than that used for Blu-
Ray. As far as flash memory is concerned, there is certainly a
market for that, but it isn't even close to being price
competitive."

This is not true. Licensing costs are likely to be similar for iHD
and BD-Java (yes, it's Java, but it's Bluray Development group
Java so their will probably be a cost). But even if their is a
difference, it will be miniscule when compared to the costs of
actually adopting the technologies - converting the
manufacturing and mastering lines and so forth. And that's
precisely where HD-DVD has a commanding advantage.
Especially if you believe - as I do - that optical disks are on their
way out soon anyway. Flash memory prices are coming down
fast, with capacities in the 16GB range coming soon (according
to Samsung). These companies may have 5 years, max, to
recoup their investment before the format is displaced. Making
back $1 billion in that time frame is going to cost much more
(per disk and player) than doing the same for $90 million, and
will likely be greater than any costs related to just lisencing.

"Never mind that the vast majority of people want to own their
media and not "subscribe" to it or leave its control in the hands
of large corporations. That is an essential "value" component
that has been largely missing from this debate. In any case, it
looks like the market will decide one way or another..."

I'm not sure where you're going here - if anything, HD-DVD
consortium's letting content be copied to hard drives lets the
consumer have more control, not less. Yet I don't think optical
disks are where this very good issue you bring up (subscription
vs ownership) will be fought. Soon, every PS or PC-like device
will have hardware DRM built in, and when that becomes
ubiquitous THEN the s**t will be hitting the fan for all of us.

In the end, the market has a role to play, bit I'm not sure its the
best place to fight over standards. Consumers should be putting
their efforts towards finding the lowest cost/best quality
solution, based on the ability of companies to manufacture and
market a product based on a greed upon standard. The kind of
fight that's sizing up now is just going to cost us all more money
- in supporting two incompatible formats in essentially the
same, shrinking market.

That's my 2 bucks ~

[Awesomebase]

Incorrect Assumptions

I too have been reading up on both technologies and I'm not sure that you've gotten a good, complete picture of what is happening in this industry.
First of HD-DVD did create a 3-layer disc that holds 45GB, but Blu-Ray already demonstrated a 4-layer disc that gets 100GB. In essence though, HD-DVD never claimed to have the advantage in this regard.
As far as "simplicity" in manufacturing goes, the advantage initially was for HD-DVD, but several delays have caused that advantage to disappear.
The main issue that is governing the decision of these companies has to do with the mode of protection. Microsoft, Sony, etc. I don't think even care whether one disc is 30GB or 50GB. What they care about is a) how easy is it for people to duplicate, b) what kind of new features can be included, c) performance in terms of throughput, d) cost of media and cost of hardware. Will HD movies do better in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I don't think anybody can answer that question. Even the proponents and developers of these technologies can't post specs that provide siginificant advantages. However, it seems to me that Microsoft and some Hollywood studios are intent on using their own proprietary technology and usage rights rather than having it developed using universal standards. That means that while HD-DVD may initially claim a cheaper media cost, they're fees for licensing the technology for each movie or HD-DVD content will be higher than that used for Blu-Ray.
As far as flash memory is concerned, there is certainly a market for that, but it isn't even close to being price competitive. Never mind that the vast majority of people want to own their media and not "subscribe" to it or leave its control in the hands of large corporations. That is an essential "value" component that has been largely missing from this debate. In any case, it looks like the market will decide one way or another...

[bcsaxman]

"You talkin ta me ...?"

It looked like you were responding to what I wrote - apologies if
that's not the case - so I thought I'd respond.

"... HD-DVD did create a 3-layer disc that holds 45GB, but Blu-
Ray already demonstrated a 4-layer disc that gets 100GB. In
essence though, HD-DVD never claimed to have the advantage
in this regard."

This gets back to the lab version vs. pilot versions ready to
manufacture. Both of these are lab versions, but in the case of
BluRay they haven't gotten even theri dual layer disks past that
stage yet. Doesn't this raise some flags for a quadruple layer
disk seeing the light of day? It does for me. Besides, once you
get to the 40-50GB level, larger capacities really become
esoteric advantages, given what these disks will primarily be
used for (buying movies and home PC backups).

"As far as "simplicity" in manufacturing goes, the advantage
initially was for HD-DVD, but several delays have caused that
advantage to disappear."

No, it hasn't. Those numbers I mentioned are the ones that are
quoted NOW - delays or no delays. The start-up costs of the
technologies involved are not subject to time factors; one
(BluRay) simply costs more than the other (HD-DVD).

"The main issue that is governing the decision of these
companies has to do with the mode of protection. Microsoft,
Sony, etc. I don't think even care whether one disc is 30GB or
50GB. What they care about is a) how easy is it for people to
duplicate, b) what kind of new features can be included, c)
performance in terms of throughput, d) cost of media and cost
of hardware."

I think you're sort of right about capacity not really being the
driving issue for either side, but the protection technology is the
same for both (AAC). The difference is HD-DVD consortium will
allow their disks to e copied to HDs for video straeming
purposes, while BluRay group will not. Also, for all the
interactive features, M$ wants their iHD technology to win
(which is on HD-DVD), and BluRay group wants BD-Java. And of
course, whoever wins, the backers will get royalty payments on
every disk and player made - big time money, for simply signing
on a dotted line. "Throughput" - how fast data is written or read
to disks - is about the same for both, I think. And cost of media
and hardware will very clearly favor HD-DVD - as I said, those
numbers (over $1 billion for BluRay start-up vs about S90
million for HD-DVD, total, are what's out there now).

"Will HD movies do better in Blu-Ray or HD-DVD? I don't think
anybody can answer that question. Even the proponents and
developers of these technologies can't post specs that provide
siginificant advantages... it seems to me that Microsoft and [the]
studios are intent on using their own proprietary technology and
usage rights rather than having it developed using universal
standards."

I can - They both deliver exactly the same product; High Def
content. So there is no performance advantages for either in
terms of the images you actually see. The iHD vs BD-Java
contest is where it becomes more of an open question. Which
one will deliver all the 'extras' better than the other? But frankly,
how 'gee whiz' do the menus and easter eggs have to be?
Nevertheless, these are the only "proprietary" technologies at
stake. And once one is chosen - officially or by a drawn out
market battle - it will become the universal standard.

"That means that while HD-DVD may initially claim a cheaper
media cost, they're fees for licensing the technology for each
movie or HD-DVD content will be higher than that used for Blu-
Ray. As far as flash memory is concerned, there is certainly a
market for that, but it isn't even close to being price
competitive."

This is not true. Licensing costs are likely to be similar for iHD
and BD-Java (yes, it's Java, but it's Bluray Development group
Java so their will probably be a cost). But even if their is a
difference, it will be miniscule when compared to the costs of
actually adopting the technologies - converting the
manufacturing and mastering lines and so forth. And that's
precisely where HD-DVD has a commanding advantage.
Especially if you believe - as I do - that optical disks are on their
way out soon anyway. Flash memory prices are coming down
fast, with capacities in the 16GB range coming soon (according
to Samsung). These companies may have 5 years, max, to
recoup their investment before the format is displaced. Making
back $1 billion in that time frame is going to cost much more
(per disk and player) than doing the same for $90 million, and
will likely be greater than any costs related to just lisencing.

"Never mind that the vast majority of people want to own their
media and not "subscribe" to it or leave its control in the hands
of large corporations. That is an essential "value" component
that has been largely missing from this debate. In any case, it
looks like the market will decide one way or another..."

I'm not sure where you're going here - if anything, HD-DVD
consortium's letting content be copied to hard drives lets the
consumer have more control, not less. Yet I don't think optical
disks are where this very good issue you bring up (subscription
vs ownership) will be fought. Soon, every PS or PC-like device
will have hardware DRM built in, and when that becomes
ubiquitous THEN the s**t will be hitting the fan for all of us.

In the end, the market has a role to play, bit I'm not sure its the
best place to fight over standards. Consumers should be putting
their efforts towards finding the lowest cost/best quality
solution, based on the ability of companies to manufacture and
market a product based on a greed upon standard. The kind of
fight that's sizing up now is just going to cost us all more money
- in supporting two incompatible formats in essentially the
same, shrinking market.

That's my 2 bucks ~

[ahickey]

Blu-Ray in PS3

One thing that has been missed is that the PS3 will be Blu-Ray.
While according to the specs on www.xbox.com the Xbox360 with have a 12x DVD-ROM.

So, by the end of next year there will be more Blu-Ray enabled devices in the living room than HD-DVD devices by default.

[blasterdaddy]

HD-DVD Versus Blue Ray, a comparison to SACD versus DVD-A

I to in the past have been a Bleeding Edge consumer.

Hence, Beta, over VHS, early adoptor of MiniDisc, and the big one for me SACD versus DVD-A. I decided to jump on both SACD and DVD-A just because different studios supported different formats. Both Formats sound great to me, and I can't really tell the sonic advantages of either of the other.

But, in order to play both formats, I have a stand alone SACD and a stand alone DVD-A. The combo units were just to expensive. Now when I play these things for my friends they are astonished at the sound quality, but then say "I have never even heard of Super Audio or DVD audio"

I think this is where the HD-DVD/Blue Ray battle is going. Lets face it, there are still folks out there with VHS tape decks, who are really upset that Walmart and Blockbuster no longer carry new releases in VHS (this is forcing these folks into adoption of DVD by the way. But, Look at the number of combo DVD/VHS units at Costco or Sams, versus DVD players.

Like the earlier person stated, until Blockbuster and Netflix start supporting the formats no one will convert, or even know there is a new format/s to convert to. And lets face it, until you can get a 150 dollar unit which will play both formats the masses will not care about either format.

Robert

[ahickey]

Blu-Ray in PS3

One thing that has been missed is that the PS3 will be Blu-Ray.
While according to the specs on www.xbox.com the Xbox360 with have a 12x DVD-ROM.

So, by the end of next year there will be more Blu-Ray enabled devices in the living room than HD-DVD devices by default.

[blasterdaddy]

HD-DVD Versus Blue Ray, a comparison to SACD versus DVD-A

I to in the past have been a Bleeding Edge consumer.

Hence, Beta, over VHS, early adoptor of MiniDisc, and the big one for me SACD versus DVD-A. I decided to jump on both SACD and DVD-A just because different studios supported different formats. Both Formats sound great to me, and I can't really tell the sonic advantages of either of the other.

But, in order to play both formats, I have a stand alone SACD and a stand alone DVD-A. The combo units were just to expensive. Now when I play these things for my friends they are astonished at the sound quality, but then say "I have never even heard of Super Audio or DVD audio"

I think this is where the HD-DVD/Blue Ray battle is going. Lets face it, there are still folks out there with VHS tape decks, who are really upset that Walmart and Blockbuster no longer carry new releases in VHS (this is forcing these folks into adoption of DVD by the way. But, Look at the number of combo DVD/VHS units at Costco or Sams, versus DVD players.

Like the earlier person stated, until Blockbuster and Netflix start supporting the formats no one will convert, or even know there is a new format/s to convert to. And lets face it, until you can get a 150 dollar unit which will play both formats the masses will not care about either format.

Robert

[Chris from Kazoo]

In the end: price will be victorious.

I would tender a bet that, in the end, consumers who buy DVD for the movies will vote with their pocket books.

I'm not going to pay $5 more for a DVD that is that is marginally better. I still want my movies less than $20. Studios will choose to squeeze more in less space, as compression technology improves.

For Data DVD's, Just let them fight it out and some bi-partisan company will come up with a dual writer just like it is now.

[Chris from Kazoo]

In the end: price will be victorious.

I would tender a bet that, in the end, consumers who buy DVD for the movies will vote with their pocket books.

I'm not going to pay $5 more for a DVD that is that is marginally better. I still want my movies less than $20. Studios will choose to squeeze more in less space, as compression technology improves.

For Data DVD's, Just let them fight it out and some bi-partisan company will come up with a dual writer just like it is now.

[gdmaclew]

What I would do...

Just go the opposite of where Microsoft goes...
ya, I know that's a little simplistic but thinking Microsft can and should take the lead in this as a "unifying" force is ludicrious.
I agree with an earlier poster that as soon as most of consumers get a gander at current DVD pictures on an HDTV, the idea of buying a next gen DVD player will go right out the window.
Progressive scan DVD looks great on an HDTV.
I think the manufacturers know this and are scared sh*tless.

[gdmaclew]

What I would do...

Just go the opposite of where Microsoft goes...
ya, I know that's a little simplistic but thinking Microsft can and should take the lead in this as a "unifying" force is ludicrious.
I agree with an earlier poster that as soon as most of consumers get a gander at current DVD pictures on an HDTV, the idea of buying a next gen DVD player will go right out the window.
Progressive scan DVD looks great on an HDTV.
I think the manufacturers know this and are scared sh*tless.

[Stan Johnson]

Blu-Ray is better = bigger and PS3

As far as I can see Blu-Ray is the better choice. It is bigger and will be more widely implemented sooner as the upcoming PS3 uses Blu-Ray.

A bigger disk capacity is always better looking forward.

[bobby_brady]

Neither format is worth it

Movies on DVD with 720p look fantastic for the vast majority of people.

[Stan Johnson]

Blu-Ray is better = bigger and PS3

As far as I can see Blu-Ray is the better choice. It is bigger and will be more widely implemented sooner as the upcoming PS3 uses Blu-Ray.

A bigger disk capacity is always better looking forward.

[bobby_brady]

Neither format is worth it

Movies on DVD with 720p look fantastic for the vast majority of people.

[bcsaxman]

Here's a Link Verifying the Numbers

The Economics of the Next Generation DVD Format
http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/hardware/next-
gen-dvd.ars

It's an op-ed piece by the guy who set up the
manufacturing infrastructure for both CD and DVD. As far
as I know, he has no horse in this race. Regardless, with his
expertise, his is an opinion I can live with.

Pertinent quotes:
"The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will
require an estimated US$1.7 million cost per manufacturing
line. Per line!

Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the
implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at
a minimum cost of US$2 million per system. DVD ...
resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally.

... Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the
HD DVD format ... HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the
entire existing [DVD] manufacturing infrastructure. The
cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about
US$150,000 ? less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A
DVD mastering system can be upgraded for US$145,000. "

When I ran the numbers for 600 lines:
$1.02 billion for BluRay
$90 million for HD-DVD

That's not including what the extra costs for the mastering
systems would be, only because he doesn't say how many
would be needed for 600 lines. If we just pick a number -
say 60 - that particular breakdown looks like this:
$120 million for BluRay
$8.7 million for HD-DVD

These are not kind numbers for BluRay.

[bcsaxman]

Here's a Link Verifying the Numbers

The Economics of the Next Generation DVD Format
http://arstechnica.com/articles/paedia/hardware/next-
gen-dvd.ars

It's an op-ed piece by the guy who set up the
manufacturing infrastructure for both CD and DVD. As far
as I know, he has no horse in this race. Regardless, with his
expertise, his is an opinion I can live with.

Pertinent quotes:
"The numbers are stark: manufacturing BD discs will
require an estimated US$1.7 million cost per manufacturing
line. Per line!

Then, each major manufacturing facility would require the
implementation of a minimum of two mastering systems, at
a minimum cost of US$2 million per system. DVD ...
resulted in an estimated 600 manufacturing lines globally.

... Compare this to the estimated cost of retooling for the
HD DVD format ... HD DVD is able to utilize virtually the
entire existing [DVD] manufacturing infrastructure. The
cost of upgrading an existing DVD line is about
US$150,000 ? less than a tenth the cost of a BD line. A
DVD mastering system can be upgraded for US$145,000. "

When I ran the numbers for 600 lines:
$1.02 billion for BluRay
$90 million for HD-DVD

That's not including what the extra costs for the mastering
systems would be, only because he doesn't say how many
would be needed for 600 lines. If we just pick a number -
say 60 - that particular breakdown looks like this:
$120 million for BluRay
$8.7 million for HD-DVD

These are not kind numbers for BluRay.

I am waiting for the winner

I think in the short run the HD DVD will become succeed as it is somewhat compatible with DVD, but at last the BD will get succeed because of its high storage and reliabilityand with its image quality

I am waiting for the winner

I think in the short run the HD DVD will become succeed as it is somewhat compatible with DVD, but at last the BD will get succeed because of its high storage and reliabilityand with its image quality

[pingalaka]

HD-DVD vs. BLU-RAY

There do not seem to be going to be any consesus between the rival camps regarding any one of the two technologies. However affordability and better user-friendly features would be the deciding factors in the long-run. Blu-Ray has a distict advantage over HD-DVD as it stores more data. One thing the manufacturers have to keep in mind that they will have to find a way so as not to cause the existing owners of the ordinary DVD Players to abandon their machines. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the two rival formats like DVD+RW & DVD-RW exist side by side, it is possible that both the HD-DVD and BLU-RAY exist and allow the consumers to choose as they wish. Common machines should be developed for playing both formats as is being done by SAMSUNG. The format warriors should not forget that the consumer is the king and should be let to remain that always !

[pingalaka]

HD-DVD vs. BLU-RAY

There do not seem to be going to be any consesus between the rival camps regarding any one of the two technologies. However affordability and better user-friendly features would be the deciding factors in the long-run. Blu-Ray has a distict advantage over HD-DVD as it stores more data. One thing the manufacturers have to keep in mind that they will have to find a way so as not to cause the existing owners of the ordinary DVD Players to abandon their machines. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the two rival formats like DVD+RW & DVD-RW exist side by side, it is possible that both the HD-DVD and BLU-RAY exist and allow the consumers to choose as they wish. Common machines should be developed for playing both formats as is being done by SAMSUNG. The format warriors should not forget that the consumer is the king and should be let to remain that always !

[pingalaka]

HD-DVD vs. BLU-RAY

There do not seem to be going to be any consensus between the rival camps regarding any one of the two technologies. However affordability and better user-friendly features would be the deciding factors in the long-run. Blu-Ray has a distict advantage over HD-DVD as it stores more data. One thing the manufacturers have to keep in mind that they will have to find a way so as not to cause the existing owners of the ordinary DVD Players to abandon their machines. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the two rival formats like DVD+RW & DVD-RW exist side by side, it is possible that both the HD-DVD and BLU-RAY exist and allow the consumers to choose as they wish. Common machines should be developed for playing both formats as is being done by SAMSUNG. The format warriors should not forget that the consumer is the king and should be let to remain that always !

[pingalaka]

HD-DVD vs. BLU-RAY

There do not seem to be going to be any consensus between the rival camps regarding any one of the two technologies. However affordability and better user-friendly features would be the deciding factors in the long-run. Blu-Ray has a distict advantage over HD-DVD as it stores more data. One thing the manufacturers have to keep in mind that they will have to find a way so as not to cause the existing owners of the ordinary DVD Players to abandon their machines. Nevertheless, keeping in mind that the two rival formats like DVD+RW & DVD-RW exist side by side, it is possible that both the HD-DVD and BLU-RAY exist and allow the consumers to choose as they wish. Common machines should be developed for playing both formats as is being done by SAMSUNG. The format warriors should not forget that the consumer is the king and should be let to remain that always !

[tm0054]

How did they miss the PS3?

It is very strange that they missed this fact. If the PS3 is anywhere near as successful as the PS2 then Blu-Ray will probably walk all over HD-DVD.

[tm0054]

How did they miss the PS3?

It is very strange that they missed this fact. If the PS3 is anywhere near as successful as the PS2 then Blu-Ray will probably walk all over HD-DVD.