Comments on: Gates: We will challenge iPod

Microsoft and its hardware partners will build new devices to combat the iPod's dominance, the company's chairman said.

[microsoft slayer]

Microsoft losing focus everywhere

They're losing to Google, Apple, Yahoo, AOL, and just about every Web 2.0 start-ups out there. The MS levee is going to break!!!

[Mendz]

It's called competition...

... and they're actively competing. I don't see any reason for a new business area to cause much loss in focus. In the first place, Microsoft has enough money to fund new interests. If they turn out to be profitable, good. Otherwise, learn...

[bahead]

Too many fingers in too many pies makes bad pies

Microsoft is in a greedy panic. It's not enough for them to have the dominant desktop O/S. They also want to challenge Apple's iPod and iTunes (portable digital audio), RIM's Blackberry (wireless email), various Google initiatives, and so on.

The traditional Microsoft business model has been innovation through acquisition - a small company produces an innovative product/service, and Microsoft acquires the company and then integrates the product/service into their O/S and/or hosted services. This has happened with disk defragmentation (Diskeeper), spyware (Giant), webmail (Hotmail), web groups (ListBot)etc.

But this business model falls apart when Microsoft is faced with true innovation that they are unable to acquire. With the exception of the Xbox, every foray Microsoft has made to try to compete on a level playing field has failed (and I'd suggest that the Xbox wasn't on a level playing field due to Microsoft's ability to promote it above and beyond Sony etc.)

I think if Microsoft continues to try to be everything for everyone, to have a stake in every market share, their primary business (O/S) is going to suffer. Microsoft should focus on making Vista a decent O/S or else they are going to be in for a big surprise when Apple makes OS X available for the PC platform.

Bruce

[seankirk]

Lest We Forget...

Apple has a near monopoly on digital music, around 70%. If that were Microsoft the headline would be "The Evil Empire Does It Again". Apple's IPOD+Itunes combo reminds me of AOL. People love it because they enjoy the hand holding and everybody else was doing it. There are people out there who don't necessaily care about getting ALL their digital content from Itunes, which also means you must play it on an IPOD. Compact Discs as a music consumption medium worked well cause I could play it on any player from any manufacturer. Apple dreads something like that happening cause then their monopoly and cash cow goes away. The Apple+Itunes model will not dominate for long, i admit it will be relevant, but people ultimately need choices and portability, that is going to be Microsoft's play.

[Earl Benser]

Quite probable....

... but given the opportunity, what are the ca=hances that MS will
do it right??? This is a time to listen to the consumers. And MS
historically has had no ears.

MS's maneuvers will be interesting to watch.

[deemery]

Historical analogy: "We will bury you"

Nikita Kruschev: "We will bury you"...

<yawn...>

Build a better product (easier to use, more reliable, etc) and then
we'll see.

dave

[open-mind]

"Compatible with Microsoft Software?"

Uhhh....iTunes works with Windows.

[MAA_Elvis]

iTunes is not a Microsoft application

I believe he (Gates) is talking about compatibility with Windows Media Center technology.

In any case (this is not directed at you Paul R), everybody incorrectly thinks that MS doesn't innovate and just copies or "steals" other's ideas. In the case of Media Center, the shoe is on the other foot as it were. Apple is "stealing" the idea for it's media software from MS...

[Chevaliermusic]

Apple missing an opportunity

I'm an Apple user (composer) - and I've seen a commercial for what I believe is a very cool Windows based tablet PC. I think this COULD be the next big thing. (With all honesty, I've been waiting/hoping for tablet PC's since I was young - and now that i'm not - I'm hoping school systems across the country use them and get rid of all those heavy books my 8 yr old is carrying)

Back to the point. Given Apples success with laptops and Ipods and their new relationship with Intel, wouldn't it be cool to release a truly capable larger Newton. A real tablet PC would be a boon for artists and other high end media creators and they're still Apples major buyers.

Just a thought (20 year old thought - lol) Comments welcome.

[darrius3365]

re:

I heard the tablet PCs haven't been that successful on the PC side. However, the convertible notebooks look really cool.

[gpenglase]

I agree - next big thing

Just like Larry Ellison's prediction of Network Computers beingthe NBT being 5 or so years too early (see http://news.zdnet.com/2100-9584_22-5459563.html) I think that the tablet PC is the obvious computer of the future but it just won't happen the way that everyone thought (like a standalone product with specially written software).

I loved Apple's Newton (had a few of the things) not because it worked really well, but because of the vision that it gave me of what was possiblee (felt like one of the guys out of the Jetsons using it). It was big, slow, under-powered and had limited software but it was a sneak-peek at the future.

Now we have PDAs which do so much more a lot faster, but they still aren't a device I'd want to do any really computing on. So as in many cases, wirelss, miniturisation and the right of features will eventually combine to make a kick-butt PDA/notebook/tablet thingy which will change the lives of students 9and their sore backs) everywhere but also be used in the corporate world as well.

As one who works in the area of the web, corporate events and training and media, I am waiting for the right tablet PC to come along..

Maybe it wil be the NBT.

[J.G.]

'Media center' is not a new idea

Talk of convergence, the computer based home entertainment
center, appliances that respond to wireless communication
(there is an actual refrigerator) has been around for years. I can
go into my storage room and pull out tech magazines touting
the 'digital home' from a decade ago. (Some of the material is
ridiculous by today's standards, which lots of wires and cabling.)
So, the person who thinks Microsoft 'discovered' the notion is
pretty naive. This idea is a general one that different companies
have tried to implement aspects of.

When I say Microsoft should accept being an also-ran regarding
MP3 players and digital music, I don't mean it and its partners
should necessarily stop producing alternative players and sites.
(Though, considering Dell's recent decision, some will.) I DO
mean that the belief that Microsoft and allies can unseat Apple is
unrealistic. So, Microsoft strategists should, as I said before,
focus on the Next Big Thing.

I also want to say a few words about carping. I happened across
a site called Anything But iPod after seeing it mentioned in an
article in the New York Times. The blog is dedicated to bashing
the iPod, while promoting Windows DRMed MP3 players. I think
it demonstrates why the cheering squad for these products is so
limited. "Anything but," means the person carping is not really
interested in quality. His interest is in partisanship only. Apple
= bad. Microsoft = good. The biased, gramatically challenged
person who runs the site is probably actually helping sell iPods
because his attacks on the product are so irrational.

http://www.anythingbutipod.com/archives/2005/01/about-
anything-but-ipod.php

Many commenters are this and other tech sites have the same
problem.

[darrius3365]

re:

Just because people talked about this thing 10 years ago doesn't mean that MS could not hold the title for making one of the first efforts to make it a reality.

[J.G.]

Cut and paste

Live link is not working.

[gpenglase]

Oh, and...

and AJAX is going to re-write the world of software. If any of you are holding MS stock I'd be looking for a run-up in the next year or two to sell it all, because it's run is almost over - the AJAXed web spells the death of shrink-wrapped mainstream software. There will always be the niche areas but given that the most common computer uses can be re-created with web developtment tools, and most of these are going to be inexpensive or free there isn't much future for MS Office as a hugely profitable business, and the OS landscape is changing.. People are more interested in the apps & the web now than the OS - a lot of companies just aren't upgrading their OS because the web browser is where it all happens, and it may take another 10 years for open source to change the desktop landscape but it will. Our kids will look back and say Microsoft who? just like with AT&T.

Every dog has its day and iPod has its now but that'll change because, as someone said earlier in these posts, it is proprietary and eventually cross-compatibility wins out in a mature market, but it'll be a long time bfore that happens and they'll make the lion share of the money out of it just like MS has done with the OS, and MS has had it's day and that's changed (even if you can't see it yet), and gaming is just starting to come into its own.

MS has lost billions of dollars in profits on it to ensure that it is part of gaming because it knows it has little else to build the future on. It may win gaming it may not, but I wouldn't say it is a good bet just yet.

Bill Gates may sprout on that he is going to compete in this or that market but he knows that there are only a few big games in town that will provide MS with a legacy to survive into the future: games, consumer devices like MP3s and phones, and services.

Apple is better positioned (and not just because of their hardware - Steve is playing this game a lot smarter than Billy) and has an almost unassailable lead in consumer devices as does Sony and Nokia - they're not stupid enough to give MS control of the software.

And Apple can turn that almost-monopoly into aother areas as Jobs turns the iPod into a phone, a PDA, whatever he wants. it'll change our lives the iPod, and it'll make Apple the consumer products company of the next decade. Corporates will use it too because it will be infiltration from outside in.

Sony still has the upper hand with gaming and makes a hefty profit from it - they're not newcomers, they have deep pokets too, and they have an installed base, and unlike other markets MS has little or no ability to coerce suppliers, stores, developers etc across to the XBox - its only option is to throw money at it and hope that Sony make a mistake. But Sony has not allowed itself to be lured prematurely and will once again reap the benefits of extra development time, an opponent that has shown their hand too early and a user-base that has no qualms in buying multiple gaming devices. Also Sony has a better bead on consumer devices and how to make them work - watch out for some increased Sony/Apple hand-holding in the future. They have a lot to gain being in cahoots.

Services is the big one that I can't see what's going to happen, but if gates thinks he's got all the asnwers he's sadly mistaken. MS is still stuck in the legacy of the shrink-wrapped OS and Office monopoly which they don't want to canailise. To do it properly you have to throw out that old concept and start afresh - they couldn't do it with the Web and I suspect that they're umbilical cord is still firmly attached. When there is a plethora of service offerings and MS doesn't control the two top portals in the world, unless they make a deal with Yahoo to sell their services (which I just can't see happening) they'll be just one of the larger 'other' offerings apart from Yahoo and Google. I don't think its nes to anyone that google has world-dominance on their mind and they are best positioned to leverage open source to control AJX-based software services. And since the services fight will no longer be tied to who controls the document formats (see how compatible other office products are with MS Office now and the open document format that everyone is starting to use) the fight comes down to features, usability, scalibity, & security. MS may win out with features but there's a plateau that features get to (as evidenced by the fact that only 20% of what is in MS Office is used regularly and now that compatibility is no longer an issue people are flocking away from Office to cheaper solutions) and it certainly isn't going to be aplayer in the usability or security stakes.

So Gates can challenge iPod, they can challenge the PS3 they can challenge Google, but wil they win - no. If history has any bearing they have only won when they've had (a) the opportunity to steal or buy technology and integrate it (b) or when they've been able to illegally coerce people through monopoly power (c) or when the deepest pockets have counted. But, while the deepest pockets will keep them as a contender for a lot longer than anyone else, innovation, combination, user-driven demand and freebies will keep them an also-ran. That's why MS stock price went nowhere last year even though they grew in overall revenue by a Google (the entire amount that Google made in revenue in the year). Because share inveing is buying the future not the past - and MS has only a little of that in the 3 biggest games in town.

[fishheadsoup]

yup

Damn, some darn good analysis. I agree that as a market matures focus and objectives change...

It'll be interesting to see PS3 vs X360. However, remember VHS vs Beta and who won.

I'm not pro MS or pro Apple, I just want open standards and not proprietary crap...

[Llib Setag]

MS DeathPOD

Just what the universe needs...a MicrosithPOD!

2.5x2.5 blue screen of death, Only works with "PlaysFurSure!"
WMF files & you must download securtiy updates daily to keep
your EMPire-POD functioning (Security Is Priority One at
Microsoft), since you must have MSN to download from the
Death Star Muzak Store.

You lost the media war Billy BOB, give up & focus on fixing all
your other problems at Jurassic Park.

[darrius3365]

re:

in four years of using Windows XP, I have only had ONE blue screen, and that was immediately after downloading and launching Yahoo! widgets, which I immediately uninstalled...