Comments on: Android sales to outstrip iPhone by '12?

Apple's iPhone got a head start but Google's Android devices are set to take off, market researcher Informa says. The real loser, however, apparently will be Symbian.

[donsynstelien]

I didn't know that "industry watchers" did so many drugs.

[marap]

Oh my God !!! Another prediction for 2012 :) Like some waaay 3 years down the line.
I am not even commenting on the topic, However i do want people to think that how often these predictions and such analysts have come closer to their predicted numbers.
There are no WW sales numbers here for iPhone and heck .... the same for Android is far from anybody can even find. Do we even know how many Androids are there in the market today and how many Apps are there on Android ?
Actual facts, some numbers to believe, some data .... should be the basis of such articles, which i see missing over here.
BUT then these guys will not be called the Researchers and Analysts :)

[douggdangger]

iphone = toy
blackberry = grown ups
android = geeks

iphone is just like the mac market. you're locked into whatever hardware Jobs feels you should have. you're also locked into whatever software he decides. you're stuck with overpriced hardware and a monopolistic carrier.

WHEN, Adroid gets much bigger, more available phones from various makers and more people developing software for it, it'll exactly be like the PC - Mac market where Apple is outsold 10 to 1.

People don't like being locked into ONE carrier and ONE manufacturer for overpriced hardware.

Memory on iphone upgradeable? No.
Battery on iphone cheap and replaceable by average owner? No.
Blackberries and G1 can use any USB cable. iphone can't even use ipod cable and majority of accessories.

No thanks Apple.

[seven7dust]

which is why the IPhone was rated as the number one business phone by forbes

[kakphoto]

Personally I HATE apple. But as for the article, you can't really judge who's gaining because none of major manufacturers are making the exact phone for every service provider. You will only really be able to tell who's on top once any phone can be used on any network. And better yet the best thing would be once you buy a phone you can switch to any network with that phone.

Ken

[dudemanguysondog]

Android is linux. Sorry it's a little off topic, but it irritates me. It's like if some one were to say XP and windows, or ipods and mp3 players. They are the same thing but from different people

[wavjockey]

There needs to be more Android phones on the market before I can get behind these facts.

[douggdangger]

One thing is for sure, had Apple gone with many other carriers instead of AT&T (the most putrid of them all), iphones would've been all over the place.

Many people aren't willing to leave their carriers, if they're happy with them, just for an iphone.

AT&T price quote:
iphone 8gb $200
1000 minute $60
Data plan $30
Text plan $20
--------------------
Total $310


Monthly plan = $110



What I'm paying at TMobile
G1 = $180
1000 minutes = $40
Dataplan with 400 texts = $25
--------------
Total $245


Monthly plan = $65


I'd be paying nearly double every month just to get an iphone. TMobile's coverage is just as good since they're piggy backing off of AT&T's network.

Sorry, but IMO it's not worth paying double per month just to have an iphone.

[ibeetle]

Nice try. My iPhone plan is $80.00 not the $110.00 you pulled out out your ass.

The G1 is $299 not the fantasy $180 you wet dreamed about. Although there are special sales and discounts, but then you also have to count the special sales and discounts such as the ways various ways to getting a iPhone for $99 and that is new not refurbished; although there are those too.

and how did a $70 difference become twice as much. If it really was twice as much it would be closer to $200 at $490?

[hoopla]

This is like saying "hybrids will outsell BMW's by 2015"; completely meaningless. That statement might be true as well, but it doesn't mean BMW won't be doing very well and making a lot of money.

2012 is also a very long way off in the mobile space. We could start to have flexible oled screens that connect wirelessly to our mobile networking devices around then. Who knows what form factors and interface types will work best for the connectivity options we will have then.

[Bozco11]

Might be 2012 when another phone runs half as smooth as the iPhone

[atish505]

iPhone is a Non Starter in India and China, (the world's largest mobile markets and in a year the world's largest smart phone markets as well).

Since Android is independent of hardware and many mobile phone makers are planning ,launches in India and China this year and the next, you can expect it will take over iPhone sales in no time.

[fungie5]

That's exactly true.

[douggdangger]

iphone smooth?

it can't even multi task.



True about the comment of wireless technology in Asia booming.

The worst thing about wireless technology in the U.S. is all this bullcrap about carrier monopolies, exclusiveness... only hurting the consumer.

U.S. carriers totally screw their costumers by locking you in a ridiculous contract. Some say they do so by subsidizing the price of the phone. However I find that hard to believe since you're already paying $200 - $300 for your iphone when it probably cost 10 - 20% of that to produce by a 12 year old girl in a factory in China.

Many countries in Asia, if you're not happy with your carrier, you can give them the finger and go to their competitor in minutes. Not here in the U.S. Make sure you have KY jelly when you sign that contract, specially with AT&T.

[ebegoli]

What is the data and what kind of trend analysis is used for this type of prediction?

I do not see much evidence (except for the fact that all G1 devices were sold) for this prediction.
I am professional software engineer and developer for mobile devices; I have G1, Q, Blackberry 9000, other HTC, and I have access to iPhone and of all these devices I found HTC G1 to be probably the least attractive. I am hoping that such nice operating system such as Android will get some serious traction, but at this point I do not see much evidence that Android devices outside of two HTC ones are even being planned.
The only non-HTC device - Kogan Agora Pro was delayed indefinitely.

[amigosito]

What a silly comparison. That's like saying Windows will outsell the iMac. The iPhone is a device that runs a slimmed-down version of Mac OS X. Android is an operating system. Apples and oranges.

[douggdangger]

"Nice try. My iPhone plan is $80.00 not the $110.00 you pulled out out your ass."

Hey ********, I'm coparing two plans with the same minutes and features. Learn to read.


"The G1 is $299 not the fantasy $180 you wet dreamed about."

It's $180 with a 2 year contract, just like the iphone is $200 WITH A 2 YEAR CONTRACT.
LEARN TO READ. It isn't that hard to do.


"Although there are special sales and discounts, but then you also have to count the special sales and discounts such as the ways various ways to getting a iPhone for $99 and that is new not refurbished; although there are those too. "

We're talking about RETAIL prices that the average buyer pays for. I'm not taking into account that you got a discount by polishing the salesguy's pole.


"and how did a $70 difference become twice as much. If it really was twice as much it would be closer to $200 at $490? "

Don't try to mix my numbers genius. $65 is nearly twice as much as $110.


It costs more money to own apple products and they're no better than the competition. Infact they are often locked down by apple's iron curtain. If you had any knowledge of modern technology you'd know what I'm talking about.

[fungie5]

There's no way of knowing whether Android will accomplish what the author said, but I think it's a safe bet that the iPhone is destined be a minor player when it comes to the future smart phone market share. Apple's in the business of making money and they've chosen to use a business model founded on attainment of high mark-up instead of high volume sales. This means that iPhones will lose global market share once their rivals begin to compete on price. Smart phones are replacing the standard handsets currently being used around the world and the biggest driving force for this is the falling cost of the smart devices. The biggest phone markets in the world are in the developing nations, and the only way to compete there is to compete on cost. Within a few years, smart phones will be sold at the same prices that standard phones are sold today. That trend alone will eventually put Apple out of global market share contention. Instead, Apple will continue to do what they've always done - refresh their designs on an annual basis in a way that keeps their mark-up sky-high.

[douggdangger]

Fact is, buyers of Apple products are ignorant people who can't think for themselves.

They pay apple the extra money to do their thinking for them.

There's a price for being stupid.

[fr33_loader]

LOL. Thats a pretty harsh word. I'd like to use the word convenience. Like I want to use iTunes because it's less hassle for me. People at times pay extra if it would make their life a little easier. Ironic that this so called "ignorant & stupid people" are able to afford that extra money for this Apple product. Actually, there are stupid people on both sides of the fence.

[kironin]

that's funny. actually it's more like I pay apple extra money to save me time when they don't, I let them know it vocally and with my pocketbook. I want the convenience so I can focus on other things. If I didn't think my time was worth anything, I certainly could beta test Android or install Ubuntu or another Linux on my computer and spend lots of my time with half-baked bleeding edge applications.

I have used the kind of pricey Airport for years now. In fact it works so well, I haven't seen any compelling reason to upgrade to an n version. It just works. I don't spend anytime on it. I can't say the same for many friends I visit that are constantly asking me to diagnose the problems they are having with their Linksys or 3rd party vendors and their Windows XP / Vista systems. If they had Macs and Airports, it would be certainly nicer for me and a lot less time wasting on their part.

[Coonie1]

Apple isn't going to let Google out sell them.

Apples got them by the balls!

[chaunceyo]

I wouldn't doubt it, but I think people forget that the iPhone is just part of the iFamily. I think the reason people would be reluctant to pass onto another phone is if they've become integrated into iTunes/Mac lifestyle. I don't own any of it, but I do see how it maybe difficult for someone to adopt something new if they lose all their music/videos/pictures they have taken the time to organize in iTunes, especially if there is still a viable upgrade for their phone that will allow them to keep on keeping on. I'd advise people to not become attached to iTunes if they'd like upgrade their handset to something other than an iPhone.

[cardfan1212]

Impossible to predict what will happen. The Pre will factor into the market by then as well as it'll be out in full force in the global market (not just Sprint) along with other WebOS devices by 2012.

As smartphone users get more sophisticated, apple will have to ramp up the features while struggling to maintain its simple beginner's UI. Being simple (ipod) and cute is an asset right now for the iphone as it has to be careful how much it veers from that.

Only 18% of all cellphone users now, it's predicted that will rise to around 50% by 2012. Those users will come from current dumbphones. Obviously apple will benefit being a beginner's smartphone and the easiest to use.

[kironin]

I think there is a place for Android to grab a chunk of the market including some that might have gone for an iPhone as long as Apple is so pig-headed as to refuse to make useability features like system-wide cut-and-paste not a priority. At this point I can't recommend the iPhone to anyone that is not already a Mac user who sees me using my phone because of the obvious myopic corporate vision they continue to practice. I wouldn't want to have to apologize for the lack of business features that can be found on other systems like Android. Apple get off you lame profit gorged arse and make the phone what it should be.