Comments on: India or China--who will prevail?

China may have the edge right now, but CNET News.com's Charles Cooper says India could be this century's up and coming superpower.

[jlc112800]

The most import edges china has over india

I have seen many of blogs covering many fields where India lags behind China such science, economical development and social welfare etc. However, there are two most important fields you have not yet covered that yet have most implications on world economy in this centuries. One is the widely documented average IQ difference between Indians and Chinese. If you GOOGLE ?IQ and wealth of nation?, you will find many publications and articles on the 1 ½ SD in IQ difference between Indian and Chinese. Historic stats also show a strong correlation between the fortune of a nation and its national IQ. That can well explain the more impressive advance China achieved even though India has a more market oriented economy. The other is the physical and mental toughness and endurance to succeed. This trait could not be better demonstrated by India?s near zero show-up in summer Olympic Games. For last four Summer Olympic Games, India has achieved ZERO gold medals for a population of more than a billion! Unless India can prove it can catch up in these two areas, I will not bet my money on India.

[jlc112800]

The most import edges china has over india

I have seen many of blogs covering many fields where India lags behind China such science, economical development and social welfare etc. However, there are two most important fields you have not yet covered that yet have most implications on world economy in this centuries. One is the widely documented average IQ difference between Indians and Chinese. If you GOOGLE ?IQ and wealth of nation?, you will find many publications and articles on the 1 ½ SD in IQ difference between Indian and Chinese. Historic stats also show a strong correlation between the fortune of a nation and its national IQ. That can well explain the more impressive advance China achieved even though India has a more market oriented economy. The other is the physical and mental toughness and endurance to succeed. This trait could not be better demonstrated by India?s near zero show-up in summer Olympic Games. For last four Summer Olympic Games, India has achieved ZERO gold medals for a population of more than a billion! Unless India can prove it can catch up in these two areas, I will not bet my money on India.

[advanced snooze]

It depends on what time frame, but...India

If you're talking about within the next 50 years, China will still be on top. If you're talking maybe 100-150 years, and assuming nothing major and unaccounted changes this (eg. global warming and feeding the world's largest population), then my bet is on India. Demographics is the most important reason. As long as India does not de-rail it's econ growth, this will guarantee it's #1 spot.

That having been said, I don't think it'll really matter. It will not be as relatively powerful as the present day US. That's because the US is the sole superpower. India may become #1, but it will be a multi-polar world by then. The US will probably be the weakest of the tier one countries (China, US, India), but will still sit at the top table, thanks to the power of immigration (again demographics), it's continued permanent UNSC seat and the legacy of it's advanced military weaponry. In other words, it'll be like the Russia of the future.

[advanced snooze]

It depends on what time frame, but...India

If you're talking about within the next 50 years, China will still be on top. If you're talking maybe 100-150 years, and assuming nothing major and unaccounted changes this (eg. global warming and feeding the world's largest population), then my bet is on India. Demographics is the most important reason. As long as India does not de-rail it's econ growth, this will guarantee it's #1 spot.

That having been said, I don't think it'll really matter. It will not be as relatively powerful as the present day US. That's because the US is the sole superpower. India may become #1, but it will be a multi-polar world by then. The US will probably be the weakest of the tier one countries (China, US, India), but will still sit at the top table, thanks to the power of immigration (again demographics), it's continued permanent UNSC seat and the legacy of it's advanced military weaponry. In other words, it'll be like the Russia of the future.

[Commander_Spock]

"India or China" - Neither of the Two!

With the United States of America and Russia having demonstrated their technological wizardry in space it is questionable as to why this question should be asked in the first place, more so with the formation of politico and geo-economic blocks (Europe, the Americas) in the foreseeable future an Indian or Chinese dominating culture is highly questionable. At least, not with the possible threat of climatic conditions such as global warming; and, that should be the major concern of countries like India and China - how will they feed their people if the "water" wells run dry and the "food" start to run out!

[catoprof]

What are you saying

That india and china can't develope space capabilities?


India and china are launching their own spy satellites.


China sells launches to American companies.


China has committed itself to landing a man on the moon in 15 years.

[shenye]

dude, be rational

But don't wish that way, Al Gore is right on Global Warming but at least by then the Chinese will have the money to hire someone from the Zionist state to get water from somewhere, why are you so worried, you just want a hilarious joke, is that it?

[Commander_Spock]

"India or China" - Neither of the Two!

With the United States of America and Russia having demonstrated their technological wizardry in space it is questionable as to why this question should be asked in the first place, more so with the formation of politico and geo-economic blocks (Europe, the Americas) in the foreseeable future an Indian or Chinese dominating culture is highly questionable. At least, not with the possible threat of climatic conditions such as global warming; and, that should be the major concern of countries like India and China - how will they feed their people if the "water" wells run dry and the "food" start to run out!

[catoprof]

What are you saying

That india and china can't develope space capabilities?


India and china are launching their own spy satellites.


China sells launches to American companies.


China has committed itself to landing a man on the moon in 15 years.

[shenye]

dude, be rational

But don't wish that way, Al Gore is right on Global Warming but at least by then the Chinese will have the money to hire someone from the Zionist state to get water from somewhere, why are you so worried, you just want a hilarious joke, is that it?

[catoprof]

India, because..

The reason India is behind is because the Indian Government adopted a socialist economic model after independance, with state owned investments as steel, cement, etc. and income subsidies to the poor. Barriers prevented foreign or even local private ownership of major enterprises.

IT is organized differently and it is impossible for Indias economic Czars to institute the same model in Information Technology, allowing private industry for the first time to make major investments in India. The economic czars have not missed what has happened- they are much less socialist now and will be even less so in the
future.

Instead of being trapped in their isnsular thinking, India is starting to act on the World stage.

China will continue to prosper, but it has problems, part of this is very few English speakers compared to india. (English is the language of commerce and science and will remain so.) Another problem that frankly I don't know how to interpret in economic terms is that there is a major excess of boys over girls, perhaps 50% in some age cohorts- this implies a great deal of frustration and competition or a prostitute ridden society, violence, emigration....????

Also as China contiues to propser it will do to itself what Korea, Twaiwan, and Japan have done, make itself a high price producer opening up doors for India in traditional manufacturing...

America's future, by the way, looks great. We has held onto some traditional industry- airliners and earth movers,a lot of silicon- Intel and AMD dominate cpu chips, and although it isn't important right now because, thanks to the 'Green Revolution' India and China both tend to be self sufficient in food, in the future the agricultural productivity of North America will be very important indeed, espe3cially to the overpopulated superpowers of the time.

[Dante_11]

English is cool language, You can survive without it.

English is just a tool but you still need to be smart and to be aggressive to be successful. Just look at the philippine which has a huge english-speaking population ,and yet its economy is the worst in Southeast Asia. As chinese's economy expanding, English is become secondary. As far as gender imbalance, nature and time will take care by itself. Don't you know that prostitution is the oldest profession. it exists in every corners in the world, not specifically restricts only in china. India has it too.

[catoprof]

India, because..

The reason India is behind is because the Indian Government adopted a socialist economic model after independance, with state owned investments as steel, cement, etc. and income subsidies to the poor. Barriers prevented foreign or even local private ownership of major enterprises.

IT is organized differently and it is impossible for Indias economic Czars to institute the same model in Information Technology, allowing private industry for the first time to make major investments in India. The economic czars have not missed what has happened- they are much less socialist now and will be even less so in the
future.

Instead of being trapped in their isnsular thinking, India is starting to act on the World stage.

China will continue to prosper, but it has problems, part of this is very few English speakers compared to india. (English is the language of commerce and science and will remain so.) Another problem that frankly I don't know how to interpret in economic terms is that there is a major excess of boys over girls, perhaps 50% in some age cohorts- this implies a great deal of frustration and competition or a prostitute ridden society, violence, emigration....????

Also as China contiues to propser it will do to itself what Korea, Twaiwan, and Japan have done, make itself a high price producer opening up doors for India in traditional manufacturing...

America's future, by the way, looks great. We has held onto some traditional industry- airliners and earth movers,a lot of silicon- Intel and AMD dominate cpu chips, and although it isn't important right now because, thanks to the 'Green Revolution' India and China both tend to be self sufficient in food, in the future the agricultural productivity of North America will be very important indeed, espe3cially to the overpopulated superpowers of the time.

[Dante_11]

English is cool language, You can survive without it.

English is just a tool but you still need to be smart and to be aggressive to be successful. Just look at the philippine which has a huge english-speaking population ,and yet its economy is the worst in Southeast Asia. As chinese's economy expanding, English is become secondary. As far as gender imbalance, nature and time will take care by itself. Don't you know that prostitution is the oldest profession. it exists in every corners in the world, not specifically restricts only in china. India has it too.

[pwoon]

China, of course

Just because Americans don't like what they perceive as Communism, and India as a Democracy, shouldn't prompt one to say that India will succeed and China won't. Do you guys want comparisons? China has close to 90% literacy rate, while India has more like 50%. When China takes over everthing, we'll see how much English knowledge will count far, even though China has close to 500 million people who speak English, more than the US. What country can destroy a satellite 4 ft wide from a ground base (not the US or Russia). In international Math and Science competitions, who always prevail (hint: not India). Why do you think that the US cannot defend effectively from Chinese spies? Because a lot of the top scientists and engineers are Chinese. Have you ever been to the airport at the capital of India (in Delhi)? Compared to the airports at Shanghai and Beijing? How many medals did India win at the last Olympics (1 silver medal), and how many golds did China win (32 golds and 60 + overall).

Let's face it, Americans like to say India will make it over China because Americans are afraid of China

[chuck_whealton]

My Money's on China

Having dealt with both countries, and without throwing mud by giving examples why, I'm just going to say my money is on China.

Charles R. Whealton
Charles Whealton @ pleasedontspam.com

[shenye]

China needs a new strategy

China needs to gather their strength to solve their weaknesses, not fighting with words who is Julius Ceasar. What do you think of Latin Americans, would they be competitive anytime soon? We in the US hear very little about stuff over there.

[pwoon]

China, of course

Just because Americans don't like what they perceive as Communism, and India as a Democracy, shouldn't prompt one to say that India will succeed and China won't. Do you guys want comparisons? China has close to 90% literacy rate, while India has more like 50%. When China takes over everthing, we'll see how much English knowledge will count far, even though China has close to 500 million people who speak English, more than the US. What country can destroy a satellite 4 ft wide from a ground base (not the US or Russia). In international Math and Science competitions, who always prevail (hint: not India). Why do you think that the US cannot defend effectively from Chinese spies? Because a lot of the top scientists and engineers are Chinese. Have you ever been to the airport at the capital of India (in Delhi)? Compared to the airports at Shanghai and Beijing? How many medals did India win at the last Olympics (1 silver medal), and how many golds did China win (32 golds and 60 + overall).

Let's face it, Americans like to say India will make it over China because Americans are afraid of China

[chuck_whealton]

My Money's on China

Having dealt with both countries, and without throwing mud by giving examples why, I'm just going to say my money is on China.

Charles R. Whealton
Charles Whealton @ pleasedontspam.com

[shenye]

China needs a new strategy

China needs to gather their strength to solve their weaknesses, not fighting with words who is Julius Ceasar. What do you think of Latin Americans, would they be competitive anytime soon? We in the US hear very little about stuff over there.

[jtm123]

INDIANS: Entrepreneurial, CHINA: copies western tech

think about. I have heard of the Tatas (Tetley, Corus), Reliances, Infosys, Mahindras, Bajajs and the Mittals. How many companies are out there from China that can claim the same?

This is how China works:

1) US invents a product and patents it.
2) Patent is transferred to China.
3) China mass produces it.

China is then payed slave wages and US Companies get the big chunk of revenue.

Simple rule of business: The entrepreneurial minded will rule the manufacturing.

Example of this rule: Infosys already opened up a huge Special Economic Zone is Shanghai that employs 100s of Chinese workers.(1) How many Chinese companies are operating in India? None.

References:
1) http://www.infosys.com/china/default.asp


Now who do you think will win out in the long run?

[fc11]

So, Indians are better than Chinese, do this make you feel better?

You are smarter than me! If you pay me $1 each time I say this to you, I will say it 1000 times!

Have a nice day, smart man!

[Dante_11]

India's domestic market is unaccessible

The reasons that China's investment does not have much presence in india because India's Domestic Market is highly unaccessible for foreign companies to make a profit. Show me a list of foreign companies that have actually make much of profits out from India's domestic markets.

[venkash]

To Dante_11...u have no idea....Here is the list of only a few foreign companies that r huge in India...coca cola, pepsi, ford, honda, hyundai, samsung, suzuki, microsoft, intel and the list goes on. The claim that India's domestic market is inaccessible is a blatant lie......do some research.

[jtm123]

INDIANS: Entrepreneurial, CHINA: copies western tech

think about. I have heard of the Tatas (Tetley, Corus), Reliances, Infosys, Mahindras, Bajajs and the Mittals. How many companies are out there from China that can claim the same?

This is how China works:

1) US invents a product and patents it.
2) Patent is transferred to China.
3) China mass produces it.

China is then payed slave wages and US Companies get the big chunk of revenue.

Simple rule of business: The entrepreneurial minded will rule the manufacturing.

Example of this rule: Infosys already opened up a huge Special Economic Zone is Shanghai that employs 100s of Chinese workers.(1) How many Chinese companies are operating in India? None.

References:
1) http://www.infosys.com/china/default.asp


Now who do you think will win out in the long run?

[fc11]

So, Indians are better than Chinese, do this make you feel better?

You are smarter than me! If you pay me $1 each time I say this to you, I will say it 1000 times!

Have a nice day, smart man!

[Dante_11]

India's domestic market is unaccessible

The reasons that China's investment does not have much presence in india because India's Domestic Market is highly unaccessible for foreign companies to make a profit. Show me a list of foreign companies that have actually make much of profits out from India's domestic markets.

[solrosenberg]

Doesn't have to be either/or

I know in this age of "us vs. them" collectivism this is hard to fathom for some people, but it is possible to have many wealthy and successful nations living at peace with one another. It's not necessary for any one to "prevail" over the other. Thank you Charles Cooper for another useless column.

[Commander_Spock]

Expressed as a true VULCAN Ambassador!

LIVE LONG AND PROSPER...

TWO TO BEAM UP SCOTTY!

[rubenerd]

Well said

Well said. Just because more than one economic power is growing
and asserting itself doesn't mean another is doomed to fail because
it isn't "winning the race".

[shenye]

what an obvious answer

I think CC is trying to get us write a book for him, isn't that right, fellow.

[solrosenberg]

Doesn't have to be either/or

I know in this age of "us vs. them" collectivism this is hard to fathom for some people, but it is possible to have many wealthy and successful nations living at peace with one another. It's not necessary for any one to "prevail" over the other. Thank you Charles Cooper for another useless column.

[Commander_Spock]

Expressed as a true VULCAN Ambassador!

LIVE LONG AND PROSPER...

TWO TO BEAM UP SCOTTY!

[rubenerd]

Well said

Well said. Just because more than one economic power is growing
and asserting itself doesn't mean another is doomed to fail because
it isn't "winning the race".

[shenye]

what an obvious answer

I think CC is trying to get us write a book for him, isn't that right, fellow.

[Commander_Spock]

On Behalf Of Federation Star Fleet...

we now present to you (Planet Three) - Operation "Golden" Eagle! One Race - MANKIND!

To Boldly Go And Live Long And Prosper!

[shenye]

you need a book or

a beer or any hobby regarding Japanese in origin technology. No girlfriend for you!

[Commander_Spock]

On Behalf Of Federation Star Fleet...

we now present to you (Planet Three) - Operation "Golden" Eagle! One Race - MANKIND!

To Boldly Go And Live Long And Prosper!

[shenye]

you need a book or

a beer or any hobby regarding Japanese in origin technology. No girlfriend for you!

[fc11]

It is American interest to get India and China to fight

America cannot stop the rise of India or China, so why not get them to fight? Then, they will need the help of USA to win.

This is called "global strategic balance".

[qwerty75]

Great idea!

Since we evidently can't compete with them and just have to be #1 is everything, lets get them to kill each other for a while, then we can bail them out!

I guess that is a good option if you have zero morals.

Who cares about lives when there are profits to be made?

What a frightening post.

[fc11]

It is American interest to get India and China to fight

America cannot stop the rise of India or China, so why not get them to fight? Then, they will need the help of USA to win.

This is called "global strategic balance".

[qwerty75]

Great idea!

Since we evidently can't compete with them and just have to be #1 is everything, lets get them to kill each other for a while, then we can bail them out!

I guess that is a good option if you have zero morals.

Who cares about lives when there are profits to be made?

What a frightening post.

[rubenerd]

There are more players

Nigeria? Brazil? India and China are destined to become big players,
but they're not isolated.

[Commander_Spock]

Who....

... will own and control the means of production and distribution of the DREAMLINERS that will fly the affluent Nigerians, Brazilians, Indians and Chinese around the world on their business trips and the SPACESHIP ONES that will fly the SUPER RICH on their excursions into outer space - the USA and EUROPE. Duh!

[rubenerd]

There are more players

Nigeria? Brazil? India and China are destined to become big players,
but they're not isolated.

[Commander_Spock]

Who....

... will own and control the means of production and distribution of the DREAMLINERS that will fly the affluent Nigerians, Brazilians, Indians and Chinese around the world on their business trips and the SPACESHIP ONES that will fly the SUPER RICH on their excursions into outer space - the USA and EUROPE. Duh!