Comments on: iTunes for video? Don't hold your breath

Downloading TV shows from a Web site is a long way off, according to a panel of Internet executives sounding off on the future of entertainment and media.

[toaaron]

"Hiring lawyers is easier than innovating."

QUOTE:
"...Hiring lawyers is easier than innovating...."

personaly think that this can be listed in "The Quote of The Day".

http://ahseng.blogsome.com

[mycbrad]

Brilliant

Absolutely Brilliant from Cuban.

[DJ-JD]

Mobile Video - emerging tech

There's actually alot going on in the area of downloading and watching video on mobile phones.

Check out this article from PCWorld:
http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,115327,00.asp

Perhaps this panel was not considering this emerging technology, which is not a "long way off" but just around the corner.

[Rod Adams]

The Net would absolutely choke on video

Let's get real here. There is a huge technical hurdle that must be
overcome before the movie industry has anything to worry about
with regard to people sharing movie files over the web.

(Please, forgive me if I have no patience for those of you who will
tell me that you can get your movies for free now. I would be
willing to bet that none of you are paying for the bandwidth that
posting and downloading those movies are consuming.)

A first generation DVD holds about 4.7 GB of data. The codex
used for storing video on those disks is quite compressed, but a
2 hours movie just barely fits.

With HD there will be even more storage, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD
are aiming for 50 GB on a single disk no larger than current
DVD's.

Let's do just a tiny bit of math.

Assume that your home connection is operating perfectly and
you are getting the full 1.5 Mbps that your cable company
advertises. (Anyone who monitors their actual download rates
will know that this is rather optimistic, but work with me here.)

There are 8 bits in a byte, so a current DVD can store almost 38
x 10^9 bits while the pipe allows just 1.5 x 10^6 bits per
second.

That means that under the best of circumstances, you will tie up
your entire line for almost 7 hours to download a single movie.

During that time, any other activity on the line will slow the
process and add time to the download.

If you want the contents of an HD-DVD, plan on a delivery time
of 70 hours.

Remember, those are optimistic numbers - it is very rare to
achieve throughput that is even close to the advertised
Bandwidth number.

Let's get real here indeed

Come on ... Let's get real here ...

More and more people download their TV-shows from the net, personal media centers and PVR are booming, recording digitally is surpassing recording on VHS,
one of the most downloaded pieces of software is a program to convert DVD-video to mobile-formats for Pocket PC's, Cellphone's, PSP, CD's ....

Offcourse few people are going to download a DVD worth of data, but with current compression techniques far better then the MPEG2 of DVD, and for content aimed for mobile devices,
an average TV-show takes up about 120 MB of data ...

Allready the geeks among us are setting up huge libraries of digital video, collecting entire TV-shows.
These are the same geeks that adopted MP3 as a replacement over CD Audio, years before Itunes and the likes even existed ...

Video over the web is going to be huge, Media companies would be out of their minds to not recognise this.

[tmattoneill]

Um...

ever heard of bittorrent? I do this all the time and, as you say early in your posting, I just have a plain vanilla 3Mbps cable modem connection. It takes me usually about 30 - 45 minutes to download a popular 30 min show (170 Mb) and anywhere from a few days to a week to download an enitre series (4 - 7Gb). You forget that when you rip a DVD it may well be ~4.7 Gb but after DivX or XviD compression it's usually only about 800Mb - 1.2Gb.

It'll all work out in the end

10 years ago, I downloaded a 5Mb King James Bible. It took 2 hours. Today, my ISP promises (but it's true - they don't always deliver) download speeds up to 9Mps. So what took 2 hours to download 10 years ago, could now download in less than half a second - think about that, that's over 10,000 times quicker.

There may be an upper limit to the demand for individual bandwidth. But until we start to see where the demand limit is, if there's money in it, someone WILL find a way.

But the original argument was more about the conflicting business model. What has to happen is a new business model, where web-based micro-charge PPV streaming AV services offering competing services - proably in co-operation with either the cable companies or (more likely I guess) with the program producers/TV channels.

I would NOT be surprised to see someone like IFC or OLN (who don't HAVE to have all the latest & great quality features) offer their own web-based streaming service, instead of fighting in those markets, where they have been squeezed (like mine).

Initially, until bandwidth IS plentiful enough, there may likely be reduced quality versions (like the stripped down illegally distributed movies that now amount to less than 1Gb. By my calculation, streaming 9Mps for 90 minutes would allow almost 100 times more download capacity than needed for a paltry 1Gb 90 minute movie.

Now many wouldn't want to watch the low-quality movie - except if it's offered at a fraction of the cost of the HD 5.1 version with every AV feature known to man.

In the end, if there's a buck to be made by streaming rich AV, someone WILL make that buck.

[78cherche]

It seems the rest of the world is so far behind~...

1.5Mbps, is that still considered broadband?
That is the speed that a single user gets, it ties up your bandwidth, not everybody elses.

Now speed that up 3.5 times faster so you have a speed of 5.25Mbs and you could download the same amount in 2 hours. Just the time you need to watch the movie. Voila~ you have streaming.

I don't want to sound like I'm bragging, but sometimes mainstream American news is so behind. Payment with cell phones? We had that 5 years ago...

I used to live in Korea and in my appartment it took me 4 minutes to download 1 gigabyte. It's actually faster to download from the internet thadn to copy a file on your hard drive. So 19~20 minutes to download the 4.7G movie. And as I;m sure that others have already mentioned, most of the files are compressed even further.. (DivX, Xvid)

YES we already have this service. You could register for an online provider, I pay @ 40 dollars a month to provide the hosting and then apply to be a member of the "club". The club is in charge of managing the content. Any copyright material is forbidden, but you have tons of legit things to watch, as well as loopholes that allow some new movies. (Eg. The movie isn't released yet in Korea but there is already a screener going around the network.) And there are rumors of illegal clubs that only operate during the night as well. (Not that I know any :)

In order for this sort of service you need higher bandwidth, difficult for a well-to-do already developed country spread over a vast space, compared to a small crammed country where the gov has power to push through Broadband for everyone.

I've seen it happen. This IS REAL. And that's why the Movie industry in Korea is contantly monitoring the contents on these clubs..

Now I left out P2P networks but I'm not going there...

[R. U. Sirius]

Uhh, ever hear of AVI?

AVI is the pretty much the video equivelant of mp3, and seems to be very popular. If I'm not mistaken, a typical 60 minute TV program only clocks in at 300 to 400 MB in size.

[tmattoneill]

It's already happening...just illegally

What I don't get and haven't gotten for a long time is why people don't just wake up to the fact that this IS happening now, only illegally. I've watched entire seasons of Lost, 24, West Wing, Entourage, Deadwood, etc. by downloading them off BitTorrent sites. The quality is as good or better than TV, the sound is excellent, I don't have to watch it when the networks tell me to watch it and, if I had iVideo or whatever, I could watch it on the go.

I used to think Reed Hastings was a visionary but for the last couple years he's been see-sawing on EVERYTHING.
- Going to release in UK, then pulling that back
- Saying "It's NetFlix, not MailFlix" then saying net delivery is a long way off
- Doing nothing with TiVo
- Not being clear on any strategy whatsoever

Internet video delivery is here today and has been for a while now. The official distrubution channels just need to shut up and embrace it. They are just repeating the exact same mistakes the music industry made 5 years ago. But then again, it's hollywood. They love to steal other peoples ideas.

[R. U. Sirius]

Netflix is a joke

I agree with your comment re: Hastings. Netflix is an arrogant bad joke. There is *nothing* high-tech about them at all. Their business model is easily repeatable (with enough cash to buy inventory and marketing), that someone like Amazon or Blockbuster could make a serious dent in their business.

[MitchAllen]

They're forgetting independent producers

Apparently they haven't been noticing the revolution going on in independent music that is starting to expand into independent video.

Just as http://www.garageband.com offers "pod-safe" music from producers who don't care about the RIAA, you'll see an explosion of "VOD-safe" video, from producers who don't care about large studios, or just want to get something out there to help get the attention of large studios. Some artists offer their works through a Creative Commons license.

Besides http://www.cdbaby.com, we also now have http://www.filmbaby.com . Look at http://video.google.com and keep an eye on http://www.brightcove.com .

Who says I want to download a 2 hour big budget movie? Maybe I want to download a 3 minute music video, trailer, instructional video, demo video or independent short film? That's already happening. All it takes to turn a podcast into a vodcast is to reference a *.mov file instead of a *.mp3 file. If I know I'm targeting a small device, like a cellphone or video iPod, I can decrease the file size by cutting back on the resolution, and offer the higher quality DVD version on Amazon. Don't think there's a market for all this "other" stuff? Who knew Ring Tones would practically become an industry?

BTW, I use NetFlix. But I also use GreenCine, which supplies Video On Demand (VOD) over the Web for titles that allow it. My ATI card has built in PVR capabilities and can plug right into my cable TV hookup. I think more and more Media PC's will start to migrate from the office to the living room and tie right into the TV - or one of the new LCD monitors that has a built in TV tuner.

Mitch Allen
http://www.scriptable.com/blog/indie/

[TV James]

You're right.

Exactly... if we could subscribe to podcasts of things like http://www.channel101.com/ and http://www.channel102.net/ we'd get a great opportunity to see new and interesting stuff, copyright free.

And I'm sure AtomFilms and iFilms would be all over an easy to manage subscription service. And Real would figure out how to charge you for it, no doubt.

That said, if Apple does release a video iPod with (a) RCA in/out jacks, (b) a small screen, and some way to view on my computer screen, then I will buy a Video iPod in a heartbeat.

I don't care about net delivery or even independent content. I just want a small, simple to use device that I can download stuff from my PVR onto and then easily connect to a large TV or computer monitor elsewhere to watch. I know some already exist, but if it's one thing Apple does well, it's the whole "making it simple" concept. (Something I find frustrating when using a Mac, but something I could eventually get on board with when it comes to smaller devices.)

It's all about ITMS.

Let me first get this off my chest.

FEW PEOPLE OWN 50 INCH PLASMA TVS!!

Now, onto the issue of what the special event is all about. It's all about the ITMS becoming a video content delivery platform for rented content.

I've written about this at length at the following URL:

http://www.happenchance.co.uk/archives/2005/10/the_apple_event.php

[ppgreat]

50-inch plasma TV owner

Own one and love it. I concur that compression is the key. With the advent of the H.264 codec, downloading a good-looking TV show or movie just becomes a matter of bandwidth for 300-400 meg files. The argument is more one of control, as in the major players (who are heavy on inertia and slow on innovation) to scream "show me the money". They need to stop trying to redo the make-up on the pig model and do something a little more exciting. Hundreds of millions of BitTorrent users aren't wrong on this.

[R. U. Sirius]

MPAA = RIAA?

>The argument is more one of control

I have to agree with your comment. The MPAA has engaged in some of the same tactics as the RIAA (lawsuits). These entrenched industries are mired in business models that are not fit for the Internet age. Can you say "broadcast flag?"

[TheRealJizzler]

Stop Spam...

... and free up tons of bandwidth that could be used for video :D

[bobby_brady]

Get real, nobody will watch movies on a 2 inch screen

Music on the go is natural, but not watching a movie. This will never take off and Jobs knows it.

[jwmoreland]

Yes, but

People would like to be able to store all their videos on an MP3
or computer player that could play to a tv or better yet stream it
wirelessly to similar to how the Airport Express by apple streams
music from a desktop.

[CharlesRovira]

But what about watching movies

through the iTMS?

We're all gaga over the iPod but its market is well defined and its also being well served (well for now, until the RIAA gets involved.)

But Apple has a patent on another device, a tablet, wich would be be great as a presentation platform for another Apple device, the Mac Mini.

What could come out of next week's announcement would be a device (the tablet) which could be used with the Mac mini or PCs to present videos (they're allready delivering music videos and small movies,) over the iTMS.

People get so focused on the device as a stand alone component that they tend to forget the synergies that the individual components can have when coupled with the net.

Its not a streaming service, the movies have to be downloaded, just like the music is right now, so its not instant gratification, but there are other advantages, specially if you're selling hard drives, that the FairPlay could deliver.

You could download video content and it could play at full resolution on a tablet or at fractional resolution on an iPod.

[eviltoaster]

H264 Anyone? Tablet Patents? Music Videos

Does anyone remember the Apple Keynote speech showing Quicktime 7 and the new H264 format?

They demonstrated a movie from Tiny Cellphone Size, to huge fullscreen video.

Why not on the iPod? Want to watch it on the go? Watch it. Want to watch it on your pc? Dock your ipod and view it.

Or how bout an ipod dock that goes straight into your home theatre system?

Dont rule out the possiblilities just jet.

Keep in mind, Apple already has patents for a nifty tablet pc that Could fill the mobile video role quite well.


While its unrealistic that Apple will release iTunes for movies soon, its still a very possible future.


But, for the here and now, A video iPod WOULD have content. iTunes Music store Does sell Music Videos. After all, isn't it "all about the music"?

[michaeljmac]

Hiring lawyers

I'm a big Mark Cuban fan, but I really have to disagree with him.
I'd like to see his reaction if millions of dollars of Maveriks
jerseys were being illegally reproduced and sold on the black
market. Would he try to 'innovate' new clothing lines that make
it more difficult (but never impossible) for them to copy the
jerseys? No, we would try to use the legal system to stop them.
I'm tired of everyone who tries to make the recording industry
the bad guys because they are trying to protect their product.
Why are all those people out there who are essentially stealing
music the good guys?

The recording industry has so many things wrong with it, why
choose to pick on something that they actually have a legitimate
reason to do. Instead, let's talk about lack of new music (it's all
commercial these days) readily available to music lovers. Let's
talk about complaints from major labels about 99 cents a song.
Given the lower costs of delivery for electronic music, how can
anyone complain about that? Let's talk about better support for
the artists, especially new ones. Bring on new acts with little or
no marketing except through having them on iTunes and the
other services. People will find them and word of mouth will
grow their prestige. Add a website with simple information
about the bands (one page each) that they have to create
themselves. How easy could that be? The only real cost is
recording. While not a small cost, certainly is way less expensive
than traditional marketing costs.

Soon, Maybe the USA will Catch Up with Korea

It is interesting to note that 60% of Korean Households have high-speed, persistent Internet connections that are running in the 8 megabit per second range. Which means that they are, at this very moment, very comfortable downloading video, including movies, television shows, and more. Somehow, the world as they know it has not come to an end. Their enterprising media moguls have somehow worked out how to cope with this new frontier.

This malarkey about "this being a long way off" is just another example of our young country's (and countrymen's) ignorance of the world, and how far we lag behind in some areas!

And, oh by the way, there is a company called Triaxis that is delivering one gigabit throughput to homes in Southern Utah. Don't for a second believe that America doesn't have what it takes to lead.

If I

get my cable TV & internet traffic, through the same conection - where's the bandwidth issue? If a program comes down the same cable, how is it different whether it comes from a TV source or an internet source ?

Sure, there could be business changes (like the SoCal company offering 100% on demand cable TV). But why should any business change be possible for cable TV, but NOT for Internet streaming ?

[Sentinel]

What about music videos?

I understand why they wouldn't sell TV series over the Web. Downloading those episodes from the Web would require a bandwidth I don't think the Web has. Sure, people download illegal episodes from peer to peer networks, but a legal site that intended to sell episodes for download would need too much bandwidth.

But what about music videos? No, I don't want to pay Yahoo a monthly fee to view streaming videos on Yahoo Launch. Streaming media is probably the worst idea in the information age. You see your videos in pieces, after a few minutes of "buffering".

Apple tried to do nice with their integration of Quicktime into iTunes and let you play videos. Those, however, cannot be saved for later viewing, and the downloads are so long I only used that feature once. So why not apply the already existing Fairplay technology and let people download the videos? It seems, however, that that won't happen. For some reason, streaming media is still around (and so are the masochists who use it).

[mgreere]

Purpose of a video iPod

If a video ipod is announced, its main purpose will be storing
videos for easy viewing through a monitor or HDTV. Apple
knows the device needs a clear, obvious function to sell well.

The simple way for it to interface with whatever display you
choose, and its compact size, will be the selling points. Plus, it
may serve as a regular iPod (that happens to let you watch the
music videos from the iTMS). In that sense, it's an iPod, which
has clear function, with extra features.

I can see it now, "20 DVDs in a device smaller than one DVD
case." No more discs.

We're consolidation addicts. If Apple doesn't announce feature-
length content, they'll set the stage for doing so later.

[tedkolb]

While the experts were sounding off....

Steve Jobs and Co. continue to defy conventional wisdom by simply
creating the market that everyone else says doesn't or can't exsist.
I for one would like to know the name of the companies being
represented by the so called "panel of experts." I have a broker to
call with some sell orders.