Comments on: How to predict gadget success

A new methodology from Forrester Research aims to show that consumers will go for products whose entire experience offer convenience, not just the best design, lowest price, or first to market.

[coryschulz]

This is also why Windows sucks.

[sdnative1]

The problem with Tivo (yes Tivo really can have a problem) is that fact that it STILL offers no cable VOD compatibility. As it stands now, it barely offers compatibility with digital cable channels that are now (SDV Switched Digital Video). A device called a Tuning Resolver which is supposed to solve that problem is STILL a foreign concept to most cable technical assistance staff. Do cable companies not care about keeping happy subscribers enough to send technical bulletins to its staff regarding non-cable company gear? Or is it a plot to keep people paying rental fees on their own boxes? If you get a HD Tivo and call the cable company and say you need a SDV tuning resolver, you get transferred 4 times until you get a tech that knows about it. That's what happened when I called Cox Cable. So instead of all that hassle, people "settle" for a often glitchy, primitive menu system cable company DVR.

Until the new universal cable system becomes fully implemented known as Tru2Way, allowing you to buy cable boxes and TV's off the shelf essentially ready to go with 2-way interactivity, people will settle for being somewhat happy using the cable company DVR. You will find used Tivo's on Ebay and Craigslist. Yes, Tivo's menu system is still tops in the industry, but is it worth the incompatibility with SDV and cable VOD?

One question for the cable companies though; Would you rather lose cable subscribers all together? Or keep them subscribed and give up box rental fees knowing you have a happy customer using their own box?

[Khurt]

sdmative1's experience with TiVo HD and cable is similar to mine. It took 4 trips from a Comcast cable company tech before the "correct" and "working" cable cards were installed in my TiVo. I didn't know who to blame TiVo or Comcast. What sort of experience did I expect? I expected to go to Comcast online and order cable cards. I would put in my TiVo HD model number, address etc and Comcast would figure out which cards I would need and mail them to me. I would then put the cards in the TiVo HD, the card(s) would be detected and ... I would be watching HD TV in a few minutes.

[waylonflinn]

Unfortunately this seems to have a high correlation with installed base for a related or supporting service or product and seems to be an unfortunate way to leverage monopoly power.

As an example take Internet Explorer. Most acknowledge the correlation between Internet Explorer adoption and it's ubiquitous availability on Windows. If it's already installed on your computer, it's very convenient. The Windows monopoly allows Microsoft to leverage this convenience element to drive up adoption of their web browser.

A similar phenomenon seems at least partially responsible for the TiVo problem. A cable company, especially one with significant monopoly power, can leverage the convenience of using a product they provide to increase market share for that product despite its inferiority.
The monopoly protects them from competitors adoption of superior products (i.e. TiVo + Another Cable Company) as a means of driving innovation and improvement. It therefore allows them to spread their monopoly into other product categories.

This is just one of many of the unfortunate positive feedback situations that reinforce existing monopolies and yet another way whereby the consumer loses.

[richardsona]

@waylonflinn: Not necessarily. If that were always true, then Apple wouldn't have been able to get a toe-hold against early mp3's that used Windows Media Player. And Google Video should have beat out YouTube in the early days (it came out slightly before YouTube and had Google behind it, after all).

But yes, once a product is well-entrenched it becomes "convenient" because it is the familiar choice, and will have a bunch of things around it that support it. Upstarts trying to topple MySpace and Facebook face a similar challenge

[tbohs]

Forrester Research has it exactly right. It's the total package that matters. Kindle I is a great example. I am a journalist and spend lots of time reading. I bought the Kindle to make my life a little easier, and it did. Bloggers and forum contributors have been complaining for a year about one aspect or another of the original Kindle. Most of their complaints have merit, but they usually single out one aspect of the Kindle to complain about. Each time a read one of these I think, yes, but look how simple the thing is to use.

I was watching Bill Moyers interview Kevin Phillips about his book "Bad Money." Before the interview was over, I had "Bad Money" on my Kindle, and I never had to get out of my comfy chair. Case closed as far as I am concerned.

When I look around at other products I own, I see the same things. The ones I like and use the most are the ones that deliver the best total package. It's kind of a no-brainer when you think about it.