Gartner: PC sales to make slight recovery by year's end

Despite earlier, more dire predictions, PC sales are now estimated to fall off just 2 percent from 2008 totals, according to a report released Wednesday.

The latest forecast issued from market research firm Gartner says PC shipments should reach 285 million units by the end of 2009. That's just slightly off last year's shipments of 291 million. The forecast is markedly improved over June's estimates from Gartner, which forecast a 6 percent decline for the year.

Thin and light notebooks like Dell's Inspiron 11z will challenge smaller Netbooks.

(Credit: Dell)

The better-than-anticipated demand is being driven mostly by notebook and Netbooks in China and the U.S., according to Gartner research director George Shiffler.

"Mobile PC shipments have regained substantial momentum, especially in emerging markets, and the decline in desk-based PC shipments is slowing down. We think shipments are likely to be growing again in the fourth quarter of 2009 compared to the fourth quarter of 2008."

And while the introduction of Windows 7 in late October should stimulate sales, it won't be a significant factor at first--something echoed by most PC industry analysts.

"At best, Windows 7 may generate a modest bump in home demand and possibly some added demand among small businesses. However, we aren't expecting most larger businesses, governments, and educational institutions to express strong demand for the new operating system until late 2010," Shiffler said.

While Gartner finds Netbooks sales are continuing to chug along, as expected, they're beginning to be challenged by cheaper thin and light notebooks that have recently started shipping. Netbook shipments will reach 25 million units by the end of the year, and 37 million by the end of 2010, but they will peak "earlier than before (forecasted)," according to Gartner's count.

[NewsReader_]

Where can I apply for a job at Gartner????? I would love to get paid to make obvious observations.

Let's see... Dirt cheap laptops plus a new Windows operating system that everyone is getting excited about. You do not need to be a rocket scientist to figure out that they may sell a few of those things.

Let me pretend to interview with them and make some predictions of my own.

- iPods will outsale Zunes.
- More people will surf the web from a computer that is not sitting on a desk
- Apple will keep bashing Windows on "viruses and headaches"
- We will see at least one more "Lauren" ad.

Where is my office?

[tmc80tmc]

For Intel to be happy about that, they *MUST* be making a fairly DECENT MARGIN on low-end chips. I can't see Intel powering future growth if they weren't bringing home the bacon no matter if it's sold in farmer's markets or the grocery store. Pork is still pork. That said, Yesterday's product still has life left in it, so it will take much more proddding (**that doesn't necessarily mean advertising**) for customers to buy at this juncture. Windows 7 is just the preamble, DirectX-11 and USB 3.0 are warming up behind the curtains, therefore there is reason to be cautious about ALL markets being in a turn-around by late next year.

[srb8220]

Er. Aren't these the guys that were telling me that investing in Nortel infrastructure and phone systems was a good idea just 3 short years ago?

Seriously, who takes these guys seriously? Better yet, who actually still pays for their services?