Analysts predict bold growth for Google Android
Google's Android is expected to take the smartphone market by storm in the next few years, growing faster than all its competitors, according to an IDC report published Monday.
Android is expected to be the fastest growing wireless operating system from now until 2013, when the software will be the second most used smartphone operating system throughout the world, the report said.
Today, the Symbian operating system, used mostly on Nokia phones, dominates the smartphone operating system market worldwide. BlackBerry maker Research In Motion holds the No.2 spot currently, with Apple in the No.3 spot globally.
The numbers differ in the U.S. market where Symbian has very little market share. In the U.S., RIM is currently the top smartphone operating system provider, and Apple is in the No. 2 spot. Microsoft is in the third position with its Windows Mobile operating system.
But by 2013, Android is expected to grow much faster than all its competitors, IDC says. And it will knock out RIM as the No. 2 operating system provider globally and bump Apple from its second place position in the U.S.
The shift in market share comes as more device makers release phones using the Android operating system. A handful of new phones using Android from Motorola, HTC, and Samsung were announced in 2009, but in 2010 manufacturers are expected to increase the number of Android devices and ramp up sales. Motorola has said it's planning at least 10 new Android devices in the first half of 2010.
IDC analyst Stephen Drake said the sheer volume of devices that are expected to come out using the Android OS will catapult its growth. One of the big advantages Android has over other operating systems, such as RIM's or Apple's Mac OS, is that it can be used on hardware from a wide base of manufacturers. RIM and Apple only use their operating system on devices they make.
"While there are a lot of operating systems on the market, there are not a lot of opportunities for device manufacturers that don't own their own software," Drake said.
Microsoft's Windows Mobile also caters to this market. But Drake believes that Android's growth will outpace growth of Windows Mobile, because Android is free, open-source software, whereas Windows Mobile requires a licensing fee. For this reason, Drake believes that handset makers will focus more on Android.
Windows Mobile is still a popular mobile operating system, and it already has a large installed base. But growth is stalling as manufacturers and consumers wait for the next version of the operating system, Windows Mobile 7.0. That said, Drake doesn't believe that manufacturers will abandon Windows Mobile. But they will be adding more Android devices to their device mix. As an example, Drake said that HTC, the biggest handset maker using Windows Mobile, is looking more at Android, as is Motorola, LG, and Samsung.
"The story isn't great for Windows Mobile," he said. "If you look at news cycle for smartphones over the past year, where was Microsoft? They need a splash with Windows Mobile 7. And they need to produce a device with a 'wow factor,' something in the superphone range."
Marguerite Reardon has been a CNET News reporter since 2004, covering cell phone services, broadband, citywide Wi-Fi, the Net neutrality debate, as well as the ongoing consolidation of the phone companies. E-mail Maggie. 
Please, can't we let that one die. Really.
Android is based on a very efficient Linus kernel.
Should be likened to a lean mean machine of some kind.
You mean, how do developers create software that runs on different versions of an OS, just as they've been doing for WinXP, Win2000, Vista and Windows7?
I'm more curious how the iPhone is going to deal with a fragmented market when they have to start introducing major hardware changes like adding a decent screen resolution. I can't imagine the 100k apps out there will handle that very well.
http://www.pcworld.com/businesscenter/article/183470/android_developers_disgruntled_with_market.html
http://www.pcworld.com/article/186577/
http://www.developer.com/ws/article.phpr/3857796/An-Android-Developers-Top-10-Gripes.htm
Lose a lot at the poker tables do you?
Should Microsoft have stuck to Windows when they branched out with MS Office?
[CNET editor's note: Offensive comment deleted.]
Yeah, that really worked well with Windows Mobile. *eyeroll*
When are these analysts (and companies) going to realize that the user experience is all that matters? Who cares if Android ships on a thousand different devices - if the user experience isn't great, the platform will fail. I think hardware/software integration is a big advantage in this market, and Apple and RIM will continue to do well, while Android continues to fragment while it battles Windows Mobile for 3rd place.
Another important factor is apps. And there are much more killer apps on the Android now than on the iPhone.
Google managed to take two advantages of the iPhone and leave the iPhone looking the worse for it.
MicroSoft could easily turn it around if they fix their interface and keep their ability to get mobile computing done that the iPhone doesn't let you do directly.
1. Nokia seems to be finally waking up and doing something to get their smartphones back on track
2. Apple's exclusive with AT&T in the US coming to an end at some point and more carriers will mean a lot more sales in the US.
3. Palms made great strides with the WebOS phones in the year they have been out and now with more carriers and more phones they could be a break-out hit.
4. Microsoft may just pull their head out of their *** and make Windows Mobile 7 and/or a Zune based phone or something from HTC into something worth having.
5. RIM could come out with a great new design that........ok you go me there, RIM probably will lose their ranking at some point.
2) Good Call.
3) Palm dumbed down the interface (which people like) and removed capablity, and compatablity. Their big question is is the WebOS better enough to offset the problems? Maybe...if they get Rev 2 out and fix whatever it was that undewhealmed me when I really, really wanted to get a Pre.
4) If MicroSoft is lucky or smart, or both they will do exactly that. The problem isn't what you can do on a WinMo device it's the kludgy interface. Even the worst WinMo device does more than Android, Iphone, and now WebOS.
5) Rim, I'm with you on that one.
But: Android is being bought by the same kind of folks who buy iPhone. When a Soccor mom walks up and says, "I got a Droid!" when I fully expected her to say iPhone... Android has some mindshare that Apple normally has. Even if everone holds their sales, as the market grows Android can sop up the new users. Rim, Palm and WinMo are at risk. Apple only needs to make one Mistep. .
RIM is going down in flames. Maybe not next week, but . . . there's just no way they can milk push-mail to maintain dominance like they have in the past. It's important, but it can be equaled on other platforms and RIM has little else to recommend it and few hardware partners.
Frankly I thing Android will shoot up to No.1 and RIM will go to number 3. By the end of this year, certainly by 2012. Apple will continue on as a fairly solid no.2. Symbian will carry forward in the mid to lower tiers, but not the true smartphone arena. So their numbers will look good, but not for true smart phones. There's no reason for all manufacturers besides Nokia not to put Android on their lower tier phones as well to pump them up, while reserving the fastest and best hardware and cameras for their upper tier Android phones.
Win7 and Palm are simply too little, too small, too late.
Android is going to be massive. It's appeal is too broad across users, across manufacturers, and across carriers. Every other platform is starting to look like a niche market compared to that.
Nokia has some catching up to do, but I've been able to travel the world a bit and yes, their phones themslves are usually damn good quality. They won't go down without a fight, at least on the world stage... but in the U.S., unless they produce a sexy phone they are boned. Look how horrible the iPhone has worked on AT&T's network yet millions have flocked to it just because its cool.
Apple... ah Apple, they remind me of Verizon a few years back. They provide you a good product, but it's gonna be their set up at their price and that's just it. Frankly, that's the only reason iPhone landed on AT&T, neither Apple nor Verizon would let go of any control over a phone they're marketing. It seems Verizon has opened up some, but will Appple? Give the people want thay want Steve Jobs!
And finally Google... yes, they will win at whatever they are doing. They are Cyberdine and Android + Chrome OS is SkyNet... Beware! The Robacalypse is upon us!!!
1 more thing... Oh Great Google! I, your humble servant, beseech you! Please deliver unto me the Nexus One. Let all be integrated into the Googleverse and praise you message...
1001010010110012!!!
Just look at Windows vs Mac OS
Remember AOL ? Walled gardens don`t last.
This will play well for consumers.
Put all that together with the possible shipment stopping of the legal maelstrom going on right now and android phones will pick up what apple, RIM and nokia might loose. I doubt that android will take down nokia but a unified cross manufacturer smartphone os(I know just about every android phone thus far has had a slightly different os with manufacturers tweaks) has a real chance of bringing a change to cellphone service equivalent to the break up of bell for landlines.
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