Is AT&T losing its grip on the iPhone?

Apple's exclusive deal with AT&T to offer the iPhone may end within the year, according to a prediction from financial analyst Gene Munster, a senior research analyst at Piper Jaffray.

If Munster is correct, opening up the iPhone to other carriers in the U.S. could be a boon for Apple, which would likely see iPhone sales go through the roof. On the flipside, if this prediction were to come true, it would likely mean very bad news for AT&T, which has relied heavily on the iPhone to boost its own wireless sales and revenue.

(Credit: Apple)

Munster noted recently in his published research that Apple has been moving away from exclusive deals in other countries, according to AppleInsider. Specifically, in France the company ended an exclusive deal with Orange and opened up the device to multiple carriers. Munster said the change pushed the iPhone's marketshare upward to about 40 percent in France. In the U.S., where the iPhone is exclusively offered through AT&T, the iPhone has a marketshare in the teens.

There are several other countries where Apple has a multi-carrier model. In fact, its most recent deal with China Unicom to bring the iPhone to China is also not exclusive. Apple declined to discuss which carriers it might be in talks with, but analyst firms such as Piper Jaffray expect Apple to sell more than 3 million iPhone units in China next year.

Details of Apple's relationship with AT&T have never been made public. But many people have speculated that the exclusivity contract with AT&T would last at most five years from when the first iPhone hit the market in 2007. This would mean that AT&T would have exclusive rights to the iPhone until around 2012.

There have been reports more recently that AT&T has continued its negotiations with Apple to keep the iPhone exclusive through at least 2011.

Still, rumors have circulated that Verizon Wireless is also talking to Apple about getting the iPhone on its network. Verizon executives have hinted that some kind of Apple device will likely operate on its new 4G wireless network, which is expected to launch commercially next year. But what's been less clear is whether or not a 3G iPhone will operate over Verizon's network.

Verizon Wireless is currently the largest wireless operator in the country. And it has consistently won accolades for solid performance on its network. But because its current 3G wireless network is based on CDMA technology rather than GSM, which is what AT&T and most other carriers around the world use, offering the device on Verizon's network would require an additional radio to be added to the device.

While this is not a trivial task for Apple, the opportunity to offer the iPhone to Verizon's millions of potential new subscribers would likely provide a big incentive to redesign the iPhone's radio technology.

As Apple's iPhones grow in popularity, there are strong indications that opening the device up to other carriers in the U.S., such as Verizon, would greatly boost iPhone sales and market share. The company's latest phone, the iPhone 3GS introduced in June, is likely the company's most popular device. Munster even noted in his report that the new iPhone "seems to have exceeded Apple's internal expectations."

The timing in the U.S. could also be right to end the exclusivity deal with AT&T as Congress, the Department of Justice, and regulators at the Federal Communications Commission look into the fairness of such exclusive deals. Opening the device up to other carriers could help score points with regulators and potentially end some of these investigations.

But ending its exclusive deal with Apple could spell big trouble for AT&T. For one, the iPhone has helped AT&T attract new customers. About 40 percent of AT&T's 10 million iPhone customers switched to AT&T from another carrier, the company has said.

But more importantly, the iPhone has helped AT&T keep existing customers. Since the third quarter of 2007, AT&T's churn rate, or the rate at which it loses customers, has fallen to 1.49 percent from 1.7 percent, according to a story in The Wall Street Journal. Meanwhile, Verizon Wireless' churn rate has risen during that time period to 1.37 percent from 1.27 percent.

The iPhone has also helped AT&T bring in more revenue. AT&T claims its iPhone customers spend more each month than its average post-paid wireless customers--about $100 a month. This has helped boost its overall revenue per user by about 4.7 percent to $60.21 per month since the third quarter of 2007.

But the cost to AT&T for these benefits has been high. Since last year, the company has been paying about $400 per iPhone to subsidize the cost of the device in exchange for requiring customers sign up for a two-year service contract. Even though AT&T is guaranteed at least $30 a month in data service fees, the company admits that the subsidy has hurt its short-term profit margins.

What's more, because iPhone users download two to four times as many games, video, and other Web data as other smartphone users, AT&T has had to upgrade its network to keep up with demand.

Even though AT&T has been upgrading its network, customers have complained often about its poor performance. And this has had a negative effect on the company's reputation. When subscribers experience problems with the iPhone, they often blame AT&T rather than Apple for the problem.

Because AT&T is the only carrier in the U.S. to offer the device, iPhone users regardless of whether they are satisfied with AT&T or not have been forced to stay on the network as long as they want to continue using their iPhone.

But if other carriers, such as Verizon, were to offer the iPhone, AT&T could see many of its existing iPhone customers leave. And it would likely cease to see any substantial uptick in new customers due to iPhone sales.

AT&T executives have said they realize that the iPhone exclusivity deal won't last forever. And they say they are prepared for that day. But the truth is the longer the company can keep the iPhone exclusive to its network, the better off it will be.

However, it looks like AT&T's chances of holding onto the iPhone in the U.S. for much longer are getting slimmer and slimmer. Even though Apple has said that it's happy in its relationship with AT&T, it only makes sense for the company to get out of its exclusive deal as soon as it can.

[dylerl]

I can see an Iphone on the verizon network when LTE is prevelant, but even by 2011 LTE will only be in 30 cities and I cannot see Apple giving it to Verizon when the phone would barely work in most of the country and only in 30 cities, until verizon upgrades it's entire network to LTE I dont see the Iphone making it over there, T-Mobile maybe much sooner. Also Verizon would have to cede a lot of control to Apple which they do not like doing with any handset manufacturer, so we will see but it's pretty doubtful in my mind.

[hockeymass]

Or Apple could just make a CDMA variant...

[zarrik]

You're assuming Verizon would cede control to Apple to get the iPhone... Don't forget that Verizon was the first carrier approached for the iPhone, but they weren't going to cede control and give in to Apple's ridiculous demands (especially to a company who wasn't even in the phone business yet). But AT&T was desperate and gave in. This time around, Verizon has the upper hand. They have the better network. They are the largest carrier. If Apple wants to increase their market share, they need Verizon. That means Apple will need to be more accommodating to partner with Verizon.

[lelias2k]

zarrik, it seems to me, from what I understood of your post, that Verizon always had the upper hand... or did you mean something different?

[dennisheadley]

I do not see Apple ever releasing the iPhone on through Verizon without it being 100% supported to Apples specifications. I am a Verizon customer and they cripple every single phone in some way. I do not see Apple allowing them to block the GPS functions on the phone and make customers use Verizon Navigator at extra cost to use the GPS with Google Maps, or anything similar that Verizon always seems to do with the phones it sells.

[mooreoftom]

You guys have it all wrong. Verizon doesn't have the upper hand. They aren't Apple's parent company. If Verizon wants to grow even more (as all companies want to do) then they would be wise to allow Apple to partner up with them.

I see it more as both companies don't "need" each other, but they would both be better off financially if they had each other. I don't see either with an advantage, but both would be profiting greatly from the deal.

Its a simple case of win/win/win for Apple, Verizon, & the consumer.

Having said all of that, I realize that one of the companies might have some ridiculous rules due to greed that the other company might cede to, we'll have to wait and see. Or, everything may just be smooth for everyone.

[tnyfresquez]

i dont see this happening cause they are going to drop the simcard, verizon dont have sim card. and apple is going to have to find a way to actuall individualy actiavte the phon itself since verizon osent use sim carrds,and face i gsm is the better. tey have true 3g amd verzon uses a minium 3g called evdo whhich is just highspped. just lik at&t's edge. and they are going to want to lock up he phone and put the verizo logo on the phoone. verzon is o gredy

[make_or_break]

Verizon saw the huge bump that AT&T got from the iPhone. They're not stupid. Heck, they're even allowing Wi-Fi(!) on upcoming phones...did you EVER believe that would happen? That said, it's still in Verizon's court to go ahead with this deal. Apple's own iPhone market growth is more dependent on Verizon than the other way around. No matter how much better subsequent iPhones get, there aren't going to be any more mass defections to AT&T, simply because it IS AT&T. We've all heard about the data bottlenecks and the relatively widespread reports of lousy call quality; how likely is The Death Star going to be able to rectify that for its CURRENT customers, let alone getting more than enough dependable bandwidth for future growth? Not very, given just how long AT&T has already had the iPhone on the grid.

The easiest and most likely way for Apple to continue significant market growth for the iPhone is to get it on other carrier networks. Seems like a revenue-generating no brainer that they get the largest U.S. carrier on their side.

[najaboy]

@tnyfresquez
You may want to bone up a bit more on your cell phone tech. VZW does indeed have some phones with sim cards, such as the Storm. Regardless, it wouldn't be a tremeandous leap to redesign the phone to include a cdma radio.

Also, you seem to disregard that VZW was the first carrier offered an exclusive on the iPhone by Apple.

[The_happy_switcher]

I say buh-bye to AT&T--the Microsoft of telephony--and good riddance. My sources within Apple think they're toast.

[cvaldes1831]

There is no reason why Apple would drop AT&T. The logical path would be to sign carriers in addition to AT&T, not to replace them.

[marcusmaedl]

I fold my hands and humbly pray that your "sources within Apple" are right. I swear I will switch the morning after they open it to other carriers - even if it costs me more. Can't be worse than AT&T....

[The_happy_switcher]

@Cvaldes: Right, I should have clarified. Outright replacement not likely--just more carriers.

[tnyfresquez]

i dont think apple will go with verizon like seiously for one verion dosent have true 3g, they use evdo and at&t uses edge and at&t uses 3g verizon uses what? nothing. and verizon will want to lock up the device and i hate verizon thy are so mean and the dont care babout you, they have the crapiest customer service and they rip you off.

[ywkhgqo]

@tnyfresquez. EVDO-REV A IS 3G.
I've had nothing but stellar service from Verizon. Awesome deals, fair pricing, and good customer service.
Apple would be very dumb (and they usually aren't) to pass up going on Verizon or other carriers rated much higher than AT&T

[shining_down]

I second the bad customer service the network was great, probably the best, but the customer service made me leave. Its funny you have att who has bad call quality but good customer service or you have bad customer service and good call quality.Pick your poison.
I'm thinking that the ridiculous call plans won't go down. Being forced to pay a $30 internet plan(which cost more a month then my home internet connection) with no text messages and no tethering is ridiculous to me. I can't pay so much for internet when i use the wi-fi(free wi-fi is everywhere now) more then the 3g network on all my phones and I hate that your forced to get it.
With that said people will pay for these things and verizon knows this I would think with more competition it would lower the price of the plan but it will probably stay the same, especially with the huge subsidize they have to give apple.
Unlock the i phone. Give my peoples Free

[jakec85]

As far as customer service goes, I have worked in customer service for several major internet companies. The conclusion that i come to most often is that they are willing to help those who help themselves. No i don't mean that the customer has to do any of the work. I mean that if you are a mean nagging pain in the *** then of course they aren't going to credit that $2000 your daughter just racked up in texts. However, if you are calm and say, hey we just messed up and didn't add a text plan could you please work with us on a credit then they are a lot more likely to help you. I have had nothing but good experiences with VZW customer service. They have frequently given me better deals and discounts than what is even on sale. It takes a simple phone call where you treat the cs rep with respect for them to pony up the discounts. People talk about customer service but really some people need training on how to have people service. I never did any favors for the customer who called in swearing and irate with me. Of course i tried to help them but forget about any special deals or credits. People like that don't deserve customer service no matter what the situation.

[CDubber]

Maybe AT&T would be wise to, oh, I dunno, make their service more compelling to consumers than the competition? Yeah, radical idea I know.

Their hamfisted control over iPhone capabilities (MMS) and the ridiculous pricing plans (text messages are a complete ripoff and everyone knows it) have turned me from being AT&T-indifferent to AT&T-hostile.

That said, Verizon sucks too. They make AT&T's control issues look like child's play. Sprint is only a good deal because they're desperate for customers, and T-Mobile just doesn't have the data infrastructure.

I guess we consumers are screwed no matter which way we turn.

[hockeymass]

At least Verizon has a good network.

[Sausagebiscuit]

Yes, all of the current carriers suck for what it's worth, and for exactly the points you provide. I finally ended up just buying the phone I wanted at retail price and jumped on a pre-paid Verizon MVNO. At least my phone isn't feature locked and I get decent coverage for $40 unlimited voice/text.

I'll re-evaluate the carriers again in about a year and see what is up then.

[supoman]

Almost 90 million customers and the best most reliable network. Seems like a no brainer to me. Creating a Verizon CDMA iPhone(and you know how Apple works. It prob already exists) would send Apple into atmosphere. They would literally turn their competitors into minor players overnight. Including RIM.

[ibeetle]

"...best most reliable network."? What does that mean? It is just a ad tag line. It has no meaning. Just 4 buzz words that sound good together. I am surprised you did not figure out a way to use "synergy".

[FellowConspirator]

The "best" network is ad-speak. In the northeast, AT&T generally has the best coverage and call quality, while it's Verizon most everywhere else, save for major cities where it seems to be T-mobile. Verizon is awful if you leave the USA. AT&T's data plans are expensive, mandatory for smartphones (even if you never use it), and very limited. Verizon disables features on your phone and then charges you to re-enable them. Phone locking, screwing with the phone's OS', etc. It's all bad.

Honestly, there's not one of the US carriers that amounts to much more than an embarrassment compared to western Europe, Japan, and swathes of Asia.

[Eddie-c]

fellow: Am surprised you say that about ATT. As someone who has managed mobility for 2 companies, Verizon was better than ATT in the north-east - Va, Md, NY, Ma; followed by ATT. T-Mobile & Sprint sucked kitty litter there. I will agree with you on ATT having high charges - Verizon are the same way and neither will 'fight' for business ... it's "these are our rates, take them or don't". A pretty poor customer service attitude but you don't always have options.

[zarrik]

Verizon by far has the best network. That is from personal experience. Even as they roll out 4G, I think Apple will need a CDMA version. Verizon has said the new network will be backwards compatible with CDMA devices anyway.

[lelias2k]

Having used T-Mobile and AT&T (and my wife had Sprint), I have to say Verizon kicks their arses fair and square in terms of coverage.

Regardless, I agree that US carriers are years behind companies in other countries. Heck, I'm originally from Brazil and the US can barely keep up with them... talk about other developed countries...

[notkennyg]

I agree with others; Verizon is the most reliable network in the Northeast and not AT&T. I work in our I.T. department, and my company recently started supporting iPhone along with Blackberry devices. Call quality from the iPhone is at best just OK; too often someone on a conference call via their iPhone just drops off and has to redial in; not so with the Blackberry.

[Mr. Dee]

Watch AT&T scramble...

[talking poo]

Hmmm, if this goes to Verizon does this mean Jailbreak to Sprint + Sero = WIN.

[Eddie-c]

No, because that wouldn't work.

[CylonCheese]

I'm hoping for Verizon soon.... I would buy the iPhone that day.

[hockeymass]

I would be there in a heartbeat. I can't wait to unload this Curve. If the iPhone comes out on VZW before the Pre does, I'm on that like whoa.

I have AT&T and the iPhone 3G and the AT&T service really sucks. I often don't get voicemails until 6+ hours after they happen.. drop calls are a daily occurance right now and actually just making a call does't always connect on the first try... either I get a busy signal after the person I am calling picks it up or I get this ear piercing tone like I called a fax machine.. all when calling the same person. I often have to try three times in a row to get ahold of one person... this happens all the time.

As soon as my contract is up I plan on leaving AT&T due to lack of service.. iPhone is nice but it does't make up for the terrible service.. get a Pre or blackberry on a different provider.

[ellunchboxo]

where do you live? in the sticks? i'm in Baton Rouge and i've never had a problem with AT&T on any phone i've ever had with them. including all 3 iphone models.

[kaibelf]

Ellunchboxo -
I have had similar problems in Chicago. in fact, in some cases, people try calling me from 1 block away, and it'll give a weird tone, then ring after about 30 seconds, and then go to voicemail. I have full bars.
The sad part is, I never see the incoming call, and then get a voicemail alert hours later. It's actually quite irritating.

[crownroyal77]

I live in Los Angeles and I have these problems frequently. AT&T drops my calls (on a job interview once!), got voicemails days later (lost potential clients), and the plans are insane. I was paying $170/month for 1000 minutes (basic plan, no special features), I downgraded to 400 min and now I pay $100 after taxes/etc even after I cancelled the $15 SMS plan (I used Google Voice for that now). I paid $70/month for 1000min on Tmobile.

Even though these are AT&T's problems, I'm upset with Apple for forcing their customers into a price-gouging monopoly situation in order to use their products. That along with the Orwellian decision to remove the Google apps/etc has prompted me to never again buy another Apple product.

[respect2nd]

I guess Columbus, OH must be the perfect city for the iPhone. I have had all 3 models from day 1 and have never had any major issue with service or dropped calls. At least no more then on my previous phone, or that of my friends on Verizon.

My only gripe is that we were promised MMS by the end of summer and there is only 3 weeks left with no update on the horizon. That, my friend, is unacceptable.

[tcr071]

I have never been somewhere where I haven't had problems with AT&T service. It isn't so much that the network is slow, it is sometimes, it is the drop calls and poor reception. I can't drive 30 minutes across any major city in Texas without the call dropping at least twice. At least. Austin, Dallas, San Antonio, Houston, etc. Been all over the place and get dropped calls EVERYWHERE.

When I had Verizon a dropped call would come as a surprise but with AT&T I warn the person on the other end that the call will probably drop and when it happens I'll call them back. It isn't a surprise, it is expected. Dallas is a very populous city I find it beyond pathetic dropped calls are so common I have to warn people that they will happen. The day my contract expires is the day I switch carriers. I won't wait another minute.

[OlsonBW]

I have the same problem in Seattle, so does my wife, so does everyone I know with iPhones in the Seattle area.

[spamnot46]

I absolutely agree about the delayed voiceMails and generally poor voice quality. The main object of a cellphone is VOICE CALLING! I do love all the other bells & whistles of the iPhone but give me dependable calling first. I depend on a cell phone (and Voice Mails) for my living. I may have lost a very lucrative deal when my voice mail fails to deliver in a timely fashion, like within an hour at most.

For all the other goodies on the iPhone, I might just have to make do with a Pre or RIM device or maybe NOT.

[srhoda]

I have a iPhone for personal use and a company Blackberry on Verizon network. When my contract is up with AT&T (July 2010) its goodbye and good riddance to AT&T. AT&T probably has one of the worst, if not the worst, customer service. Hopefully I will be able to get an iPhone on Verizon network by then.

[tnyfresquez]

veriszon has the worst not at&t they ave won awards on scustomer service verizo has not verizon sucks and at&t tey have some dead zones but the are the masters of dataon 3 g while verixon dosent even had 3g

[ywkhgqo]

actually tnyfresquez,
once again, do your research.
Verizon was just rated #1 in customer service last year.
and once again:
VERIZON HAS 3G, ITS CALLED EVDO-REV A

[bukweet007]

@tnyfresquez
spelling is critical to the reply process. you could have valid arguments. i'm not sure though b/c i spend most of my time searching for any words that you actually spelled correctly.
tnyfresquez reply = at&t service

[tomusan]

I dislike ATT more than I dislike the beautiful looking crap that Apple makes. There is a 45% chance that I would consider buying an iPhone if they ditch ATT.

[mooreoftom]

That literally made me LOL. 45% means you will never own an iphone.

[jdcrave]

Probability > mooreoftom.

Do you believe because something is less than 50% likely to happen that it never happens? No one would ever win the lottery either. Why don't we play poker some time...

Of course a 45% of 'considering' it is less certainty than a 45% chance of 'buying' one, but neither equates to never.

[belchmelch]

T-Mobile has the best rates... i have friends that have Jail-broken iPhones (rhyme unintended). They are using T-zone for their data access... and pay only a ridiculous $5/month... versus $30 on AT&T.

sure... u don't get access to the App store. but if you just need a mobile smartphone with Google Maps and a enough productivity apps for jail-breaks... there you go

for me though... i can't do it... the user license/contract... my conscience actually bothers me that i cant do it.

THE POINT IS... Apple needs to drop that exclusive stuff now... sure they may sacrifice some on subsidies and a piece of subscriptions... but there are millions of us waiting to get this phone on OUR carrier of choice.

[Dav!d Arbogast]

How can people using jailbroken iPhone access data on T-Mobile (US) network on anything other than a really slow Edge network? $5 does make sense - for Edge.

[texaslabrat]

Edge on t-mobile is often as fast as 3g on at&t in many areas these days.

[photog_7]

It's funny how big-city users forget that MOST of the country does not even have 3G yet. Here in North Carolina, there is no 3G available west of Charlotte. I live in the Asheville area, which still has no 3G service. AT&T twice dropped a call coming in to work on I-40 the other day. Once you get off the interstate highway, you never know whether you will even have service or not. I've had Verizon service here, and while it wasn't perfect, the coverage was much better. I'm told that AT&T just has fewer cell towers, and that's the problem.

[Sgr76]

I said it before and i will say it again: The day that ATT loses that exclusive contract is the day that they start leaking customers. I am in a good position right now since i didn't upgrade to the 3G or the 3GS. I am out of contract and can leave whenever i want to. However, i don't see any other company offering anything attractive enough to make me sign up for 2 years (Including ATT). If i do leave ATT it will be to go to Boost Mobile. Until then, ATT continues to win by default.

[bimmy60459]

Have to agree with the others that have complained about the uber crappiness of the AT&T network. It just about always takes me 2 or 3 tries to make a call and calls that do get through drop so frequently that I actually had to buy another phone (on Verizon) for important calls that I want to complete without a hassle. I really only use the iPhone at home now so I can use it like an iPod Touch over my wireless network. My AT&T contract ends in 10 months - adios craptastic network. I will NEVER use AT&T again. And l also know that many of my friends have avoided buying an iPhone because they know from experience with me that the AT&T network sucks.

[doubtthat]

I for one am anxious for each smartphone (Pre, Storm, iPhone, Android) to be offered on every network. Then you will see real competition and innovation by the phone manufacturers and the networks. This one smartphone per network thing sux. I want choice so I can pick both the best phone and the best network.

[mathcreative]

I agree

[Absolution2009]

They should cut the Android exclusivity from T-Mobile too. I think the Android is awesome but T-mobile network sucks.

I started out with Cingular, then AT&T, then T-Mobile, and then stopped with Verizon. I was going to move onto Sprint but really, Verizon is simply put: Awesome in every respect. I really want an iPhone, but not bad enough to go back to AT&T your world delivered-with crap.

[bonesbautista]

Keep an eye on the Motorola Sholes rumored on the VZW network and due out in late Oct 09. I'm looking to ditch my VZW BB for an Android or WebOS device on VZW (saw two more rumored WebOS devices besides the Pre heading for VZW too...).

[steubs]

There is no Android exclusivity. Sprint will be coming out with Android phones in the next couple of months. Anyone can have Android phones. They have just not done it yet.

[alansky]

AT&T doesn't deserve the iPhone. Instead of upgrading their network (and their services) to support this amazing new platform, AT&T is milking the iPhone for every penny they can steal while the howl of complaint about their attitude and their service grows louder every day. Sooner or later, something's gotta give.

[b00dah]

I killed my own iPhone 3G several weeks ago (accidental water damage). Loved the damn thing over and above all my other smartphones. The pricing, yes it was higher than the others.. but I justified its cost... heck, I HAD to as there is alternative. But I'll tell you... AT&T does need a wake up call in the form of competition. It's good for all parties involved. More of a reality check for AT&T and a boon for consumers. While no one can tell ATT what to do since they're the only option for iPhones, yeah, they're going to do what THEY WANT to and that means none of us can impact what their business model dictated prior to rollout. The product is in demand, it will continue to sell... and prices will remain high.

When their deal expires and if Apple gets a wider channel of providers... it "might" help pricing of plans. Until then, continue to love the phone for what it is/does and hate the SOB for the service provider it runs on.

[DrtyDogg]

Doesn't Verizon have a history of dumbing down phones and restricting software available to phones?

[bonesbautista]

Not with their PDAs and BBs. My only issue in the past is limiting of GPS, but they've changed that practice of late, even issuing ROM updates to some PDAs that unlocked the GPS. The GPS on my Storm has been unlocked for other apps since I got it in the mail...

[justinxtreme]

yup exactly

[inachu1]

I am so sick I cancled my AT&T contract and now I use Ooma instead.

[ChmEng]

As an iPhone owner (2) and an Apple stockholder I would be extremely happy to see Apple discontinue its exclusive relationship with AT&T. Their customer service is awful and their price structure is even worse. We love our iPhones but hate AT&T. We're stuck with them for two more years because we just upgraded our original iPhone to a 3GS. Guess what, the fee went up again because now both of our phones are 3G phones. The day that Apple makes the iPhone available to other carriers AT&T will have to change its ways. Now they feel that they own all iPhone lovers. But in a competitive market we can choose our own carrier based on its relative cost and quality. And imagine what it will do for the stock price. Hmm, maybe I'll get a new 17" MacBook Pro.