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October 20, 2009 1:33 PM PDT

Gartner: Brace yourself for cloud computing

by Stephen Shankland
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Gartner analyst David Cearley

Gartner analyst David Cearley

(Credit: Stephen Shankland/CNET)

ORLANDO, Fla.--Cloud computing isn't going to be vapor much longer, Gartner said Tuesday.

The general idea--shared computing services accessible over the Internet that can expand or contract on demand--topped Gartner's list of the 10 top technologies that information technology personnel need to plan for. It's complicated, poses security risks, and computing technology companies are latching onto the buzzword in droves, but the phenomenon should be taken seriously, said analyst Dave Cearley here at the Gartner Symposium.

Gartner's top trends to watch.

Gartner's top trends to watch.

(Credit: Gartner)

Specifically, companies should figure out what cloud services might give them value, how to write applications that run on cloud services, and whether they should build their own private clouds that use Internet-style networking technology within a company's firewall.

Cloud computing takes several forms, from the nuts and bolts of Amazon Web Services to the more finished foundation of Google App Engine to the full-on application of Salesforce.com. Companies should figure out what if any of those approaches are most suited to their challenges, Gartner said.

Gartner analyst Carl Claunch

Gartner analyst Carl Claunch

(Credit: Stephen Shankland/CNET)

The advice came as part of a talk on top trends coming in 2010 that companies should incorporate into their strategic planning, if not necessarily their own computer systems. The full list of 10: 1. cloud computing; 2. advanced analytics; 3. client computing; 4. IT for green; 5. reshaping the data center; 6. social computing; 7. security--activity monitoring; 8. flash memory; 9. virtualization for availability; and 10. mobile applications.

Second on the list is virtualization--not just in the broad sense of technology that lets a single computer run multiple operating systems simultaneously, where it's become a fixture in data centers, but as a means to keep computing services up and running despite computer failures, said analyst Carl Claunch.

Virtual machines can be moved from one physical machine to another today. Later, by keeping two machines tightly synchronized, a failure in a primary machine can be eased over rapidly by moving the active service to the backup machine, Claunch said.

"We should start seeing this roll out in the next year or two from vendors," he said.

The Gartner hype cycle takes on the PC.

The Gartner hype cycle takes on the PC.

(Credit: Gartner)

For PCs, virtualization is arriving, too.

"Think of applications in bubbles," Cearley said. "They can run on client devices or up on a server," with virtualization providing the encapsulation technology to move the work around. The official corporate computing environment can run side by side with employees' home computing environment.

That, along with cloud computing, enables more freedom for people using PCs.

"We're looking at a time when the specific operating system and device options matter a lot less," Cearley said. "You could use a home PC or a Macintosh with a managed corporate image running on that particular device...We see more companies providing a stipend (for) employee-owned PCs."

Make your data center modular.

Make your data center modular.

(Credit: Screenshot by Stephen Shankland/CNET)

Another idea: modular data centers. You don't have set up your IT gear in storage containers, but do divide them into pods that each have their own computing, power, and cooling, Claunch said. That makes it easier to pay as you go, to adapt to new technologies, and to increase energy efficiency by partitioning hot hardware from cooler hardware.

Green IT is important--and changing in its nature. It's not just a matter of buying efficient computers, but also of using computers to increase the efficiency of other parts of the business, Cearley said. For example, analytics can improve the efficiency of transportation of goods.

Next comes applications for mobile devices. "That has great potential for creating different experience or stickiness for your customers," Cearley said.

And mobile x86 processors from Intel and AMD could make software development easier, too, he added.

Social networking will happen internally and externally.

Social networking will happen internally and externally.

(Credit: Gartner)

Social-networking applications, broadly defined, also should be on company radar screens. The technology can take the form of internal corporate social networks, interactions with customers, and use of public services such as Facebook and Twitter.

Companies need to get a handle on what's going on--and potentially business purposes such as understanding how the corporate brand is perceived.

"Social network analysis will be moving from a somewhat arcane discipline to a much more mainstream component of your social computing strategy," Cearley said.

Stephen Shankland writes about a wide range of technology and products, but has a particular focus on browsers and digital photography. He joined CNET News in 1998 and since then also has covered Google, Yahoo, servers, supercomputing, Linux and open-source software, and science. E-mail Stephen, or follow him on Twitter at http://www.twitter.com/stshank.
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by guilmon14 October 20, 2009 1:55 PM PDT
why would anybody want cloud computing basically your putting all your data and information in another persons hand its ridiculous
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by jkunedo October 20, 2009 3:47 PM PDT
How many people trust all their information to Yahoo or Hotmail (email accounts have all information). Cloud computing would be set up the same way, more secure than your local hardrive
by jessiethe3rd October 20, 2009 6:24 PM PDT
Cloud around corporations is the potential sticky point I think guilmon14 was speaking to. Comparing ad-revenue services such as Gmail, Hotmail, or even Facebook are not necessarily the model of privacy. As far as cloud being more secure then your local hard drive you have got to kidding me. Putting all your beans in a single point of failure for users (in an enterprise or corporate) is suicide. Not to mention the freedom to get access to information. As a user I care very little about my private email and to be honest most users are pawns of exploitation. They provide all their critical information to "The Borg", the Borg processes your data and sells your information to the highest bidder.

Gaining access to a single point of failure (say GoogleApps, Zimbra) where corporate information would reside presents a fairly easier and direct surface of exploitation.
by Mergatroid Mania October 20, 2009 2:29 PM PDT
We will see. I don't trust "cloud computing" either.

I'll wait for the first big disaster to wipe out some huge piece of the cloud infrastructure and see if it causes any problems.

Until then, cloud computing is in the clouds.
Reply to this comment
by d4nowar October 20, 2009 2:54 PM PDT
There is no way a 'huge piece' of the cloud 'infrastructure' would be 'wiped out.' What does that even mean?

A main idea of cloud computing is spreading around data and processes so that some loss of hardware wouldn't crash everything. A loss of power to your servers shouldn't cripple you.

I do agree that it will not be secure, so for this to work some big movement in encryption needs to happen.
by jkunedo October 20, 2009 3:48 PM PDT
Yet you trust yahoo or hotmail with all your emails or your personal hardrive?
by renGek October 20, 2009 4:15 PM PDT
How is that different than anyone having work stored on the network server or enterprise apps that have data stored in a database?
by ProDigit October 20, 2009 2:31 PM PDT
I think cloud computing is not the way of the internet!
At least not the way I understand it to be.
Reply to this comment
by Austin_Mike October 20, 2009 2:47 PM PDT
First off, anyone and everyone that works at Gartner are idiots. Secondly, inserting a bunch of pretty pictures into your article from Gartner's presentation is retarded, since Garter is retarded. Third, "the cloud" is nothing more than the internet and software as a service.

Fourth, and perhaps the most important, no business worth it's salt will trust it's proprietary data to another company. There is no guarantee of security and if you can't secure your data, you might as well just hand out your products for free and go bankrupt.

Are there ever going to be any tech journalists that actually know what the eff they're covering?
Reply to this comment
by kgsbca October 21, 2009 8:48 AM PDT
1. Yes. 2. Yes. 3. Yes. 4. Yes.

The media needs to write about something, and it's always easy just to repeat a news release or presentation from somebody selling something. But no matter how many times they say this, it's not going to happen.
by missionmom1 October 21, 2009 11:01 AM PDT
Wow Austin Mike...you sure like using the word retarded. I didn't realize they allowed 7th graders on this site.
by DesktopIntegration October 20, 2009 3:01 PM PDT
What makes me laugh about all of this is that the average user in a large enterprise is running anywhere from 5-10 applications to do their job. All unintegrated running on the desktop. Virtualization and cloud does NOTHING on their own to fix this for the user. A Customer service rep in a bank recently put my wife on hold for 5 minutes so she could print each of our personal data from 7 different screens because it was easier to read from paper than toggle the apps on the screen!

A SAAS or virtualized app will just be another app as far as the user is concerned. We must start providing business with the technology to automate processes across any app that "appears" on their workstation, in one cloud, in one bubble, or lots of them.
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by jessiethe3rd October 20, 2009 6:29 PM PDT
That has to do a lot with dash boarding and business intelligence / along with mash-ups. With the right portal strategy that single worker could have a dashboard with access to the information they need to do their job. The problem is companies are not smart enough and a lot of cases riskier enough to let go of some of their profits to make things like this work. IT is pushed to some subterranian office space just keeping the lights up - no more forward thinking and understanding how technology can help improve the business... this gets especially tough in economical times. Something to be said about a company like your bank who is holding tight onto their profits and not re-investing back into their business.
by cvaldes1831 October 20, 2009 3:10 PM PDT
On a day when Mark Hurd (Hewlett-Packard CEO) disses the cloud, Flickr suffers an outage, and the recovery efforts of SideKick user data limp along, I find the whole notion of cloud computing to be embarrasingly ludicrous as a reasonable, sane solution at this time.
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by swjslj October 20, 2009 3:40 PM PDT
Cloud computing imho, has some value for creating offsite backups and distributing certain applications through the web, but for the average home or small business user -not so much. Why in the world would anyone want their spreadsheet or word processing program "on the cloud?" Generally, applications are going to run significantly more slowly over the web than they are on my hard drive using my cpu and ram.

If my internet provider is having a problem and my programs and my data are out on the cloud, well, I'm out of business. If a strom knocks down a cable, I'm out of business.

I have computers, I have backups of my data; I need the "cloud" and its associated technical problems and slow speeds like I need a hole drilled into my head.

Except for relatively large companies with IT staffs I doubt the "cloud" is going to catch on any time soon.
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by wavecrest90 October 20, 2009 3:40 PM PDT
The point you all seem to be missing is that cloud computing wont solve the problems of small-medium sized businesses, It's really for the big boys, in order for them to scale they need the cloud. You just cant build it the same way we used to.
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by swjslj October 20, 2009 3:47 PM PDT
I forgot to mention one my biggest gripes about cloud computing. It's a pretty transparent attempt to turn us into software renters, rather than owners. I don't want to get sucked into a scheme where I pay monthly fees forever to rent my applications. I think we're all getting screwed enough.
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by renGek October 20, 2009 4:19 PM PDT
We are already there in some degree. Firewalls and anti-virus requires us to pay a yearly subscription to get the latest virus definition. If you don't after a while the software is pretty useless. People pay for tax software every year so in essence you are paying a fee every year. Lots of software out there now that prevents you from installing more than X number of copies of a program. It all pretty much bites.
by swjslj October 20, 2009 4:32 PM PDT
That's true enough, RenGek. Personally I go open source whenever possible. Open Office is almost as good as Microsoft Office, but wins hands down on points since its free. I also use AVG anti-virus and haven't had any problems. There are alternatives, but the bad guys are always looking for new ways to turn us all into penniless serfs, enslaved to government and big business (one and the same, really).
by slecalvez October 20, 2009 3:51 PM PDT
I can't beleive Enteprise Search is not there. Gartner analysts are sometime seen as gods by some CTOs CIOs and I simply don't get it. They change their trends every year and they say absolutly nothing new... Geeeez
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by jabuser October 20, 2009 4:46 PM PDT
It depends on your business culture. If you treat your online clients, partners and suppliers with the sneering contempt they so richly deserve, then either you're already delivering services through the cloud, or you should immediately jump in with both feet. If your business model still incorporates antiquated standards of service excellence, then you'll actually have to dedicate some time and resources to risk analysis to determine how good is "good enough".

Sarcasm aside, the cloud is far from ready for mission-critical applications, as salesforce.com, Sidekick and others have famously demonstrated.
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by AppleSuxLeo October 20, 2009 8:32 PM PDT
Google IS cloud computing...Hello ANDROID !
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by symbolset October 20, 2009 8:49 PM PDT
You guys are still advertising these Gartner reports? Why? Do you not dig back in your old reports to see how well their prognostications line up with observed reality? Does your credibility mean nothing to you?
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by FaintingGoatWizKid October 21, 2009 7:19 AM PDT
You're all stupid.
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by ProDigit October 21, 2009 8:11 AM PDT
In a way, SAP is cloud, Google docs is cloud...
Google docs only works because it's free.
But cloud computing, like if my PC is connected to the internet in idle mode and gives bandwidth and CPU to other devices, I'm not too happy about that!

Neither do I see 3D gaming to become 'cloud computing'!
There's absolutely no reason to do cloud computing other than to have a central database of whatever everyone is doing, that is open to crashes and attacks; and to have a computer without drive (diskspace), but spends that energy of the HD (or even more) to downloading information wirelessly!

Cloud computing is nothing new, and it fails!
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by JasonM80 October 21, 2009 1:28 PM PDT
Cloud computing doesn't fit all situations, but it is a useful resource for organizations that need computational power and storage beyond the capabilities of their existing hardware. It also allows access from anywhere there is a web browser and Internet connection.

Whenever possible, it certainly makes sense to backup your data locally for the exact reason mentioned: if your network connection goes down, you have access only to your local machine. However, this doesn't take away from its value as a high-power, relatively low-cost application hosting service, high-volume data storage service, and the access portability it provides.

Jason (collaborating with M80, representing Microsoft)
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by DynamicEdge October 23, 2009 8:45 AM PDT
I am staggered at the negativity towards cloud computing on this discussion. Those of you who are adverse to cloud technologies can I ask how you do your personal banking? I suspect you must keep your hard-earned cash in a shoebox under the bed rather than trust a financial institution to give you a secure username and passwords to access their ?cloud??
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by Sridharsft October 24, 2009 11:59 AM PDT
Sridhar

What security are we talking about? Is it data security, secured data access, data transport security, or the security of the machine. People mind set is biased to belive that physical possesion of objects to their proximity is secured. Consider this scenario (1). If enterprises keep their data base server in a highly secured room with only authorized persons entering the room with biometric access to the room, does it mean that the data is secured? If your firewall is porus, anybody with userid, password credential can steal your data and you will be foolishly providing infrastruture, real estate, IT, data and maintainance cost, while the stealer steals your data created, managed and maintaned all at your cost. Now reverse the scenario (2), let the cloud provider manage the hardware, infrastruture, IT, maintanance for you and you just create your own virtual machine and your own database server in that virtual machine and store and consume the data and you do the DB Admin and securly access the data. Which scenario gives you more security? It is the data security which is important and not the infrastruture and hardware security.
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by JasonM80 October 26, 2009 4:42 PM PDT
As Sridhar points out, data security does not depend on its location. The servers in your small business's computer lab are prone to attacks just as the virtual machine you lease from a cloud computing provider. However, the large-scale service host has greater security expertise, significantly more layers of protection in place, and is willing to invest more to keep unauthorized users out.

Nonetheless, the concerns of the cloud skeptics are certainly legitimate. You should do the necessary research before storing your data with any cloud computing service provider to make sure this company has taken the needed precautions to secure your data. Service providers do vary in this respect.

For an example of the steps Microsoft has taken for their cloud computing platform, Windows Azure, see their security whitepaper: http://bit.ly/SecuringTheCloud
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by bnara October 28, 2009 11:43 AM PDT
Great to see Gartner give so much attention to cloud computing. A clear sign that enterprises are ready and willing to start investigating the cloud. We enjoyed attending many of the sessions (read more here http://blog.appirio.com/)
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About Deep Tech

Stephen Shankland, who's covered the computing industry since 1998 and was a science reporter before that, here delves into a wide range of technology trends and offers hands-on tests. His particular interests include Web browsers, cameras, standards, research, science, and start-ups.

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