Hard-luck shuttle grounded again by weather

KENNEDY SPACE CENTER, Fla.--For the second day in a row, approaching thunderstorms near the Kennedy Space Center on Monday forced NASA managers to order another launch delay for the shuttle Endeavour's frustrated crew. It was the fifth delay for the space station assembly mission since a hydrogen leak scuttled the crew's first launch try in June.

"Well Roman, again, the vehicle and our teams were ready," Launch Director Pete Nickolenko radioed the astronauts from the firing room at 6:39 p.m. EDT. "But the weather's just bitten us again with lightning within 20 nautical miles in violation of our launch weather. So for that, we're going to have to declare a scrub again for the day today. We'll talk and convene and decide our forward path, whether it's tomorrow or Wednesday."

"We understand, Pete. That's the nature of our business," commander Mark "Roman" Polansky replied from Endeavour's flight deck. "Like I said before, when the timing's right we'll be here and we'll be ready."

The shuttle Endeavour, moments after approaching storms forced NASA to order a fifth launch delay.

(Credit: NASA TV)

Within a few minutes of the scrub, NASA managers opted to pass up a Tuesday launch opportunity and to recycle the countdown for a sixth launch attempt Wednesday at 6:03:10 p.m.

By delaying 48 hours to Wednesday, engineers will have time to repair a rocket thruster rain cover that has pulled loose slightly. The forecast for Wednesday calls for a 60 percent chance of good weather as opposed to a 40 percent chance on Tuesday.

But slipping to Wednesday means the crew will have to re-arrange the mission timeline, deferring some off-duty time and pre-entry packing until after Endeavour undocks from the station to make sure the shuttle is out of the way before a Russian Progress supply ship arrives at the lab complex.

The Progress is scheduled for launch July 24. It can loiter in space for up to five days, but it must dock by July 29.

Going into the current launch campaign, NASA managers said Endeavour had to take off by Tuesday for the crew to carry out a full-duration 16-day space station assembly mission and undock before the Progress arrives.

But space station planners now believe the crew can carry out all five planned spacewalks if Endeavour gets off Wednesday by simply re-arranging the crew's timeline. They also are looking into the possibility of launching Thursday, if necessary.

But in that case, the astronauts would have to give up one of their five spacewalks and it's not yet clear whether that is a viable option or not.

Mike Moses, director of shuttle integration at the Kennedy Space Center, said NASA will not attempt a launch past Thursday. If the shuttle isn't off by Wednesday or Thursday at the latest, launch will be delayed to July 26. In that case, the Progress would dock July 27 and Endeavour would arrive the next day.

There were no technical problems today and as with Sunday's countdown, Endeavour's fuel tank was loaded with a half-million gallons of oxygen and hydrogen without incident. The hydrogen vent line that leaked last month, derailing two launch attempts June 13 and 17, worked normally Sunday and again today.

But Florida's weather has been turbulent for the past few weeks, with thunderstorms developing regularly over the Space Coast. Going into Monday's launch campaign, forecasters predicted a 40 percent chance of acceptable weather.

But late in the day, as western and eastern sea breezes collided near the space center, storms cells popped up and moved into the 40-nautical-mile wide zone that must be clear of showers and low clouds for a launching to proceed. Of particular concern was a towering cell north of the pad that was in the shuttle's flight path.

NASA's launch rules protect a 10 nautical-mile-radius circle around the pad and forecasters at the space center were no-go due to lightning, field mills and electrically charged anvil clouds.

Launch aside, a shuttle crew also must be able to make an emergency landing back at the space center in the event of an engine failure early in flight. NASA flight rules prohibit a launch if forecasters detect rain or heavy cloud cover within 20 nautical miles of the runway.

The Spaceflight Meteorology Group at the Johnson Space Center in Houston, which oversees landing weather, was "no-go" for return-to-launch-site weather.

With only a five-minute launch window, Launch Director Pete Nickolenko did not have time to wait for improving conditions. After forecasters said they were no-go for launch and landing, he called off the countdown during a final hold at the T-minus nine-minute mark.

UPDATED at 9:30 p.m. EDT: Added details from news briefing; full mission possible with Wednesday launch; NASA mulls possible Thursday launch try if necessary.

[pmfjoe]

I personally feel this just speaks to the incompetence that is NASA. What the hell is wrong with launching in the morning or early after noon or later at night. This is the summer in Florida, and there is almost always afternoon/evening thunderstorms many days of the week in the summer. Its kina like a weatherman being surprised it is snowing in January in Calgary.

[bedney42]

Whoa there pmfjoe -

These folks aren't idiots. They have a very small launch 'window' of time when the earth and the space station are in exactly in the right position so that the shuttle can meet up with the station. The window for this launch was something like 4-5 minutes between 6:51 and 6:55 EDT or so.

So the criticism here is unwarranted.

Cheers,

- Bill

[pmfjoe]

@bedney42

Anyone who expects perfect weather at that time of day in Florida in the summer is an idiot. Maybe they should figure out a way around their "launch" window problem because at the rate they are going this is never going to get off the ground.

[bedney42]

pmfjoe -

They don't expect the weather to be perfect, or even be good. They don't have a choice. For this flight, at this time of the year, everything (the Earth, the space station, etc.) is in alignment for about 4 or 5 minutes right around 6-7 pm. They just have to suit up and hope. Then they have to contend with:

1. The weather at the launch site.
2. The weather at the RTLS landing site (Return To Launch Site abort) - different considerations here than the launch site itself.
3. The weather at TAL landing site(s) (TransAtlantic Abort - typically in Spain or Morocco)
4. The weather at AOA landing site(s) (Abort Once Around - typically in the western US)
5. Any technical flaws with the vehicle.
6. Morons flying their private planes into the range to 'get a better look at that cool Shuttle launch'
7. <Insert random thing to screw up Shuttle launch here>

The only reason that Kennedy is located in Florida to begin with is that its the southern most (i.e. closest to the equator) major U.S. territory where you can launch over water for safety (and still accessible from the U.S. mainland without crossing water - sorry Puerto Rico). Also, the nearer the equator you are, the faster the Earth's rotation is, giving you a little bit of a launch boost and requiring less fuel to carry stuff (thereby allowing greater payload weights - less fuel means less weight for the fuel and more weight capability for 'real stuff').

Otherwise, I can't imagine that they'd willingly locate to such a place, with the crappy weather and the alligators and all the rest of it.

So I'm quite sure that if the NASA folks could figure out a way around their 'launch window' problem, they would. If you have any suggestions regarding changing the laws of orbital mechanics and/or the laws of physics I'm sure they would welcome them.

Cheers,

- Bill

[bharwoodcbs]

The shuttle must launch into the plane of the space station's orbit to rendezvous and dock. The shuttle has enough power to launch five minutes before or after that "in-plane" moment, but that's it. NASA targets the middle of the window - roughly the moment Earth's rotation carries the launch pad into the plane of the station's orbit - to improve performance margins.

As it turns out, they have two opportunities to launch ever day. But for one of them, they'd have to launch on a southeasterly trajectory that would carry them over populated islands, etc. That option is not allowed for obvious reasons. So they have to go with the other option and this month, that means launching in the late afternoon/evening.

As it turns out, that "in-plane" moment moves 24 to 26 minutes earlier each day. So it's really just the luck of the draw that the launch window happens to be at a bad time in terms of Florida's summer time weather. But that's the nature of the business. There is nothing at all NASA can do about that except park the shuttle all summer and not even attempt to launch. But if they did that, I suspect you might object to their "incompetence!" They have to try. Don't forget that when the forecast is 60 percent "no-go" like it's been the last few days, that means there's a 40 percent chance they can make it. They've just had a bit of bad luck on this one.

Bill

[bedney42]

William -

Hard luck crew indeed.

How frustrating for the crew to get all suited up and sit there for hours before finally being told that its a scrub...

Following the space program as long as you have, do you happen to know the most number of attempts a mission has had before it finally got off the ground? 5 has got to be getting close to that record...

Cheers,

- Bill

[bharwoodcbs]

Two shuttle missions - STS-61C in January 1986 and STS-73 in October 1995 - were delayed six times and launched on their seventh attempt. That's the record, to the best of my knowledge. Here are my notes on both campaigns:

STS-61C:
Launch: 1/12/86, 6:55 a.m. EST. Launch originally set for 12/18; delayed one day by work to close out the aft. 12/19 attempt failed at T-14 seconds by SRB HPU overspeed (later determined to be a false reading). Launch reset for 1/6; delayed at T-31 seconds by accidental draining of LO2; Launch try 1/7 failed at T-9 by TAL weather. Launch reset for 1/9, then delayed 24 hours by MLP LOX sensor lodged in SSME No. 2 prevalve. Launch attempt 1/10 delayed by heavy rain.

STS-73:
Launch: 10/20/95; 9:53 a.m. EDT. Launch originally scheduled for Sept. 28, but delayed to Oct. 5 to replace leacking main fuel valve on SSME No. 1; then delayed to Oct. 6 by Hurricane Opal; Oct. 6 passed up due to hydraulic system problems; Oct. 7 launch try scrubbed due to faulty master events controller; Oct. 14 launch date missed due to unplanned main engine weld inspections; Oct. 15 missed due to low clouds. Launch rescheduled for Oct. 20, after two attempts to launch Atlas-2/UHF rocket. Launch on Oct. 20 on time and uneventful.

[bedney42]

William -

Thanks for the detailed response. 6 scrubs before successful launch... eeks.

I remember having the honor of meeting Charlie Walker years ago after his flight on STS-41D and discussing the RSLS abort at T-3 seconds when it looked like SSME No. 1 didn't shut down, followed by the pad fire 10 mins later. I'm sure he would have traded 6 scrubs for that 'unpleasant' experience.

Thanks for your excellent coverage here. Keep it going - there are those of us enjoying it thoroughly :-).

Cheers,

- Bill

[13ugs13unny]

Imagine if JFK had only one aero-bridge docking, imagine an international space station only having one docking bridge for the whole planet, the shuttle in a holding pattern LOL must be the largest holding pattern I've ever came across, I wonder how many times it would orbit earth waiting for the russian PROGRESS ship to depart? I'm sure Medev.Putin would be smiling just quietly.

[gdmaclew]

The problem is not the launch weather it's the weather for RTLS abort.