Analyst: Amazon.com's Kindle to generate $750 million by 2010
Calling it the iPod of the book business, CitiGroup analyst Mark Mahaney says the Kindle e-book reader will generate three-quarters of a billion dollars for Amazon.com in less than two years.
That should account for up to 3 percent of Amazon's business. See his chart and reasoning here.
(Credit:
Amazon.com)
His calculations assume that unit sales will grow from 189,000 by the end of this year to 2.2 million units in just two years. By then he assumes the price of the device will be just below $300. Mahaney also points out that Amazon does have the largest selection of e-book content.
Sure, Amazon has the e-book/e-book reader synergy going on, but still, his projections seem more than a little optimistic.
Besides the fact that the design leaves more than a bit to be desired, and it's expensive ($399 currently), his reasoning assumes people will completely change their reading habits, and that they'll be up for buying a separate device to do it.
More people would likely be onboard with the concept if it were rolled into their current device of choice, like a portable music player or smartphone with a decent-size screen.
Erica Ogg is a CNET News reporter who covers Apple, HP, Dell, and other PC makers, as well as the consumer electronics industry. She's also one of the hosts of CNET News' Daily Podcast. In her non-work life, she's a history geek, a loyal Dodgers fan, and a mac-and-cheese connoisseur. E-mail Erica. 
I can buy a paperback book - used on Amazon for a few cents.
Why would I want a Kindle?
What's really fun though is watching the so-called analysts making fool's of themselves. If someone hadn't already written about the emperor and his clothes (or lack thereof), this "device" could be the centerpiece of that story.
ed
The first option, and the one that led to me discovering eReaders was the Sony Portable Reader. The other option was the eBookwise Reader. After much research, I concluded that neither device was ideal. Each had good points and bad. In the end, I purchased the eBookwise Reader; mostly because it was around $118 as opposed to around $300 for the Sony reader. I wasn't sure if this would be a device I liked so I wanted to try the cheaper option first. I have to say that I love my eReader. I currently have a few dozen books at my fingertips and my capacity of 64 MB is only half met. If you are someone who likes to read novels, then an eReader is something to seriously look at.
The real problem I see is that when I got my first MP3 player, I was able to rip all my existing CD's into it. If I could trade in the books I already own and get the digital copy, I'd be first in line to get one.
- by Wes#1 May 23, 2008 6:17 AM PDT
- I still don't see the advantage of this thing. When I want to read a novel, I carry the BOOK along with me and read it! (Imagine that...) Is this for speed-readers who go through several long novels while waiting in a airport? I just don't see the wide market appeal. "2.2 million units in just two years" will be snapped up by the public?? Based on what?
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