Can anything save HD DVD?
(Credit: Crave UK)HD DVD is almost certainly dead in the water. The surprise move of Warner to move to exclusive Blu-ray support has sunk any hope the HD DVD group ever had for winning the format war. What's more, there are rumors that the last two HD DVD studios--Paramount and Universal--are both planning a similar defection. So, can anything save the format now?
It seems pretty unlikely. If Universal and Paramount stay exclusive to HD DVD, however, it's possible the format could survive in the short term. Of course, the moment one or other of those companies leave, the war would certainly be over. Sony has proved many times that no matter how deep your pockets are, you can't win a format war when you're the only company behind it.
The other option is that either Toshiba or Microsoft could buy one of the remaining major film studios. Microsoft certainly has the cash for this, but the problem is finding one that would be for sale or is affordable. Time Warner is less profitable than Microsoft, so that would be the obvious choice. Fox is out because Murdoch is richer than God and allegedly lends money to Satan when he's short of a few quid. The only other option would be Disney, which is now part-owned by Steve Jobs, so it's unlikely to sell to Microsoft.
There's a very slim chance that the rapidly decreasing cost of HD DVD could lure consumers to buy equipment. Especially if they aren't aware that they will only be able to buy HD DVDs from two movie studios. In the US, certain players are retailing at around $130 (65 pounds) with free HD DVDs via redemption. This makes them decent value even if you only use them as upscaling DVD players.
Of course, all of the above assumes that the rest of the world follows the US in HD matters. That is probably true, but there are plenty of independent, adult and European studios that support HD DVD at the moment. If Europe decided to ignore Blu-ray--unlikely, based on PS3 sales--then perhaps U.S. distributors would be forced to release on HD DVD for Europe.
The only other option is that one of the Blu-ray exclusive producers decides for some reason--possibly another payment--that HD DVD is where their future lies. This is almost totally impossible, as Sony Pictures will obviously never leave and Disney and Fox care too much about preventing piracy to ever surrender the BD+ copy-protection scheme--which, it's worth pointing out, doesn't seem to be stopping piracy.
However you look at it, the chances are pretty slim that HD DVD has much of a chance. Despite being a good, well designed and cheap HD format, it seems the Blu-ray disc association has the right combination of factors to attract the consumer.
(Source: Crave UK)
Besides, how long will Blu-ray actually survive? Disc-based media is a dying genotype.
They could sell a HD-DVD player for $49a nd if they are honest and upfront and tell custoemrs "Oh by the way only 2 out of every 10 movies at the theater will actually be on this format" how many are they going to sell? Not many.
If MS actually cared about HD-DVD they'd drop the price of their HD-DVD add-on to $99 or less. They won't so that say everything.
The battle can be strongly influnece by the movie studies but consumers make the final choice with what they buy. If we all buy HD-DVD if they want to sell movies they will get wtih the program.
Oh and HD-DVD is much more consumer friendly. Less DRM copy protection crap.
Congrats Blu-ray!
I still believe that if HD-DVD burners in the home became affordable (like $120) it would help this "war." But they should have been a bigger priority at the first.
Now I don't think anything can save it. The only real thing that MIGHT save it is new enhancements/features to HD-DVD. Give something the studios really want (that blu-ray doesn't have or doesn't do very well). Almost to create a new format (that can still be played on HD-DVD players with some update). Thast the only thing I see left to save them.
MS wanted HD to win because it doesn't have to pay Sony for the Blu-ray. For Microsoft next game machine, they are going to have to go HD. Now they well have to battle Sony and pay Sony for the Blu-ray.
Sure HD-DVD players might be in 1 million homes. Counting JUST the PS3 sales for JUST this last year, thats 2.3 million homes. HD-DVD couldn't even outsell the PS3 sales.
Don't say Early Adopters got screwed on the price. Everyone knows if you buy tech on release you are paying around double what you can get it for in a year. Look at what Apple did with the iPhone as another example. If your are adopting tech early, you know the risks. Especially when you know that there are competing formats. This isn't new (VHS vs Betamax).
HD-DVD lost because they didnt release enough titles fast enough and couldn't match the number of Blu-rays put in homes due to the PS3 alone.
The only upside to HD-DVD was it was supposed to be cheaper and faster to marker. Blu-ray was always the better quality and this fact is not debatable. Well Blu-ray got to market just as fast as HD-DVD and with more and better titles. Giving it the clear advantage.
As far as the XBox 360 and HD-DVD players are concerned, looks like they can now resell a Next-Gen DVD drive to the same customers who bought dieing HD-DVD drives. Sounds like they won too.
A poll was made last year about the features that are found in game consoles and (I can't remember the exact figure but...) around 60% of the people didn't know that the PS3 has a Blu-ray player and that they can buy an external HD DVD player for the Xbox.
Gamers that are not as tech savvy as us, just want to pop in their game disc and go nuts with their controller and sometimes they won't care about the other extras.
And at this point, most people are not adopting the Hi-def format because it is too confusing and they don't care.
Here are some examples:
- The Blu-Ray Consortium (BRC) paid the retailer I work for to secure preferential placement. HD-DVD was relegated to a lower traffic area. This was implemented nation-wide.
- The BRC also was the first to, in this same retailer, rent space in the TV department specifically for a Blu-Ray display. HD-DVD acted late, and thus, was only able to, again, secure secondary product placement.
- The BRC also was first, and in this case alone, in renting out fixtures in the retailers' DVD department to showcase Blu-Ray product. In support of this, the BRC also paid my company to have us audit and ensure the merchandising of these fixtures on a weekly basis, with more time being spent during high sales times (holidays, etc.).
HD-DVD sorely fell behind on the merchandising side of things. I can only assume that they were foolish enough to think that consumers would, in today's society, be technologically savvy enough to realize the better and cheaper format would be HD-DVD. The BRC quickly realized that this was not the case, and that, as it has been for ages, consumers can be swayed with fancy but useless options that they will never need or use.
By realizing this, the BRC moved quickly to win the battle at an individual store level. Our company was eventually even contracted to Blu-Ray demonstrations for this same retailer nation-wide. These demonstrations were done for the store employees during the week and for customers during the high traffic times of the weekend. HD-DVD never contracted any outside vendor to do anything similar, nor did they ever send out their own representatives. They assumed the hardware would sell itself, and they assumed wrong.
By winning the battle at the store level, Blu-Ray was able to maintain a constant presence that HD-DVD only made an attempt at once it was too late. Blu-Ray's visibility, along with the lack of visibility for HD-DVD, severely influenced the sales representatives that interacted directly with the consumers. Too few of the consumers, along with the retailers' employees, were tech. savvy enough to realize that HD-DVD would be better in the long run. Sure, you may have less features and disk space, but the features and extra space are mainly cosmetic to begin with; the consumer would benefit far more from the cheaper cost of both hardware ad software. Nevertheless, by overwhelmingly winning the PR campaign, Blu-Ray clearly separated itself from HD-DVD. In my opinion, the tide turned when Disney sided with Blu-Ray.
Disney has the most thorough and ruthless PR people on the planet; unfortunately, those two traits allow them to take advantage of those who only listen to advertising. Which, as Apple has also proven, is those who have lots of money, but spend so much effort earning it that they only know what the salesperson tells them when they make a technology purchase.
Again, this is not to say that the way Blu-Ray won was ethical or appropriate, only that these are the facts that have led to our current result. It's sad, but at the same time, this should be a lesson for anyone thinking about implementing new technology: if you are creating a proprietary format, marketing and product placement, especially at store level, is crucial. Hopefully companies that actually desire to retail quality/cost-effective products will realize this some day.
It didn't come down to merit, sales, hardware specs or any of the usual things we like to argue about.
Just lots of cash, going both ways.
The primary reason why PS3's are being purchased is to play GAMES not to watch movies. Movies are only secondary, if at all, as to the reason PS3 buyers make the purchase. It was the same situation with the PS2 when that came out. It was nice that it could play DVD's, but playing DVD's on it took a toll on its drive in the long run just as some PS3 owners will soon come to find out. It was MADE to play GAMES and is (wisely) being marketed as the ideal Blu-ray player in terms of cost which is a mistake in the long-term to people that may be uninformed enough to purchase it as their primary Blu-ray player.
I believe Sony is doing a fine job at marketing their format and using the PS3 as their main Blu-ray hype machine. If you walk into a blockbuster you will see a PS3 for sale with Blu-ray movies, which blockbuster never used to do (as far as selling hardware). Sony has used their past success with the PS2 to sell the PS3 to movie studios as a Blu-ray movie player installed in homes. While this is technically true, as it is capable of playing movies, its somewhat misleading to movie studios and consumers keeping track of the format war alike.
If the studios can't get the price of new Blu-Ray releases below $20 (at least during release week) I don't see it (or HD DVD) becoming more than twice as popular as LaserDisc.
If the HD DVD Forum REALLY wanted the format to survive, they would offer to pickup the difference between the studio's cost of pressing a standard def DVD and combo format in return for the combo being the only way people could purchase the standard def version.
Both formats have to keep offering more titles with new releases and back catalogs.
- Face The Facts
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by sommer182
January 18, 2008 2:41 PM PST
- Let's face it. It all comes down the COST and COST ALONE.
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Showing 1 of 3 pages (55 Comments)I waited until the $99.99 Wal-Mart special to jump up to a "next-gen" HD format, and ONLY cause I needed a new DVD player. The only HD-DVD's I have purchase are ones that will play on BOTH my HD-DVD AND my laptop / portable DVD player. I love the machine and the video experience, but my discs MUST work with every other player in my house as well.
Most of the rest of the Wal-Mart/Target/Best Buy shopping world such as myself (or 98% of the rest of the American public) will need $100 players and $5.00 to $15.00 discs before the start buying in serious quantity.
No matter HOW GOOD THE TECH IS.