LG: OLED will fall to LCD price levels by 2016

LG's 15-inch OLED TV, which is set to go on sale in Korea by December.

(Credit: Erica Ogg/CNET)

On the heels of announcing a 15-inch OLED display going on sale in Korea this December, LG predicts that prices for panels using the coveted technology will fall below those of LCD panels in seven years.

"Forty-inch and larger OLED panels will be fairly expensive in 2012, but they will be available in the market," said Won Kim, VP of OLED sales and marketing, at a trade show in Japan yesterday. "OLED panels will cost less than LCD panels in 2016."

Allow me to dissect that prediction for a moment. Calling the affordability of any technology so far in advance is pretty bold, but 7 years is a long time and a lot can happen between now and then. But I think the main message to be gleaned from Kim's words for customers watching the market and still waiting for OLED is: don't.

The progression of HDTV technology might seem breakneck, but in fact it's a molasses-paved slog compared to that of computers or smart phones, for example. OLED in particular faces significant manufacturing challenges, which contributed to Sony delaying its OLED production, leaving Samsung and LG to fill the void for now.

Of course people who have money to burn will be able to buy OLED TVs much sooner than 2016, but the screens won't be very big. Sony's 11-inch XEL-1, which I reviewed about 20 months ago and remains the only OLED TV you can buy in the US, is a case in point.

Screen size is a major factor standing in the way of OLED will becoming the new trophy HDTV technology over the next few years. Even those "fairly expensive" (read, a couple thousand dollars at least) 40-inch models are pipsqueaks compared to today's videophile-grade plasmas and LCDs.

And sure the picture quality of OLED is excellent, but how much better is it, really? The XEL-1's black levels can be absolute, which means they will literally disappear in a completely black viewing environment, leaving only the parts of the image you want to see lit. The result is "infinite contrast," a concept videophiles can certainly become excited about, but conversely one that's nearly attainable today in the best plasmas and especially local dimming LED-based LCD displays.

Current LCDs and plasmas displays are getting better every year, and who knows how good they'll be in 2016. While we're predicting the future, it's fair to speculate that plasma and LCD could achieve infinite contrast by then as well--at least one plasma demo from CES 2008 already did so. Otherwise the biggest picture quality hurdle remaining to LCD is viewing angle, and again I bet major strides will be made in the next few years on that front.

Leaving out picture quality, OLED's main advantage will be in energy efficiency and form factor, but again current LCDs are ultrathin and extremely efficient already--see the Samsung UNB8500 series for the best current example. Inch-thick plasmas are also available, although that technology lags far behind the others in efficiency.

In the absence of real differences in picture quality, design or power consumption, OLED needs to be price competitive to send LCD and plasma the way of the CRT. In 7 years or so, you'll probably begin thinking about replacing your current HDTV anyway.

Source: Nikkei Electronics via Gizmodo

[Life_on_Mars]

The same concerns about Plasma were happening 10-15 years ago - too expensive, not reliable, etc., etc. From what I've seen of the Sony XEL-1, the wait will be well worth it, that kind of picture quality will never be achieved by LCD or Plasma, no matter how much you tinker with them. Using your logic of those technologies can only get better, the same goes for OLED, and OLED is starting from a much higher picture quality. Of course the average Joe won't be able afford it any time soon, look how long it took the price of Plasmas to come down. Once 42" and larger OLEDs come on the market, the image crispness and power savings will make it worth it, regardless of the price.

[hafenbrack]

Agreed, I've been waiting for OLED for a few years now, I hope it really is "affordable" when LG thinks it will be.

[SactoGuy018]

With California's new power consumption regulations for larger flat-screen TV's, expect the likes of LG, Panasonic, Samsung, Sony and VIZIO to pour in billions of dollars in R&D to overcome the current technical issues with OLED panels and get them into large-scale production by 2012.

OLED panels offer picture quality potentially superior to plasma panels but lower power consumption than even LED-backlit LCD panels. And unlike LCDs, OLED displays have essentially no motion blurring problem, so even very fast motion from a movie like "The Dark Knight" will look spectacular indeed.

[Eludium-Q36]

Dmmit, I was hoping OLED would be mass market (Costco, Walmart) by 2011-12, not freakin' 2016!

[chrkeller]

Ok, I mean great.... until then I will spend the next 7 years enjoying my wonderful plasma.

[Notoapplefanbois]

7 years?

nothing in the 21st century which is worth it takes that long from the first step to get right

[zeth006]

No surprise here.

LCD technology keeps getting cheaper and cheaper even as the image quality and color reproduction steadily improves. All this price-cutting and image improvement means OLED will take a while before it's able to effectively replace LCD as the new display standard.

I wouldn't be so sad about it in the mean time. After all, we have LED backlit TVs. LED backlights, though no more than a 0.5 generation leap from conventional LCDs, are still a major leap that manages to wow the crowd. Edge-lighting bugs aside, they started out expensive ($4,000 anyone?) and have been getting price cuts every 3 months at my neighborhood Bestbuy. I must say that the picures and videos shown on the TV are simply lovely. It's just a pity that I don't watch TV often and my end up buying a 32" LCD/TV to complement my laptop.

But by the time we're in the 2016 period in which OLEDs are mainstream, LED backlit LCDs will be all but replaced. This means my family will have skipped the 50" LCD for a 50" OLED. Took our 32" Sony CRT about 15 years to die. Skipped the LCD TV generation, watched all my stuff on my laptop. When I start working at my real job, it'll be OLED monitors/TVs galore!!