Survey: Majority of people don't want an iPad

I know that so many of you have been a little undecided on this important subject, so this seriously significant information may be enough to sway you as to your own deeply conflicted feelings.

The majority of your fellow humans are not interested in owning an iPad.

No, I haven't been pounding the streets and screens of this world in order to ask everyone still living and breathing after the iPad launch announcement. Instead, I have lucked upon an article in Computerworld, which tells me of some survey work performed by online comparison shopping helper Retrevo.

Retrevo possibly performed this research in order to help retailers decide how many iPads they should stock. However, having spoken to more than 1,000 Americans, yes, perhaps even 1,001, its conclusion seems to be "not so many."

In interpreting their data, Manish Rathi, Retrevo's co-founder, told Computerworld that all the twitching of mouths and tremors in tingly parts that accompanied the launch actually put people off.

Before Steve Jobs took to his armchair at Yerba Buena, 26 percent of those surveyed said that they had heard of the iPad, but wouldn't be buying one. This positively leaped to 52 percent immediately after Jobs revealed his new plaything.

"Excuse me. I'm just replying to a survey on my iPad."

(Credit: CC Matt Buchanan/Flickr)

These figures immediately led Retrevo's Rathi to tell Computerworld: "I don't see this as a game-changer."

You see, if you're worried about where to put your money just put your mouth, filled with searching questions, to more than 1,000 Americans' eyes and ears.

Rathi's thesis was, in the tablet of his own mind, confirmed even more powerfully by another of the survey's questions. Before the launch, 49 percent of respondents declared they didn't need an iPad. But after the seated soliloquy of Steve Jobs, this figure ballooned to 61 percent.

Some, perhaps those more dedicated to Apple's core, might respond that they don't need to date Megan Fox, but they still might choose to, given the opportunity. Still, Rathi believes that purchasers are rational beings: "There's just no killer app that goes on the tablet."

He points to his inquiry's result that 59 percent of people said they wouldn't pay the $130 in order to enjoy the bountiful excitement of AT&T's 3G. "There's also an overwhelming discomfort with signing up with another data plan," he told Computerworld.

So the co-founder of the "ultimate electronics marketplace" has decided that "This will not be in line with the iPhone launch."

Before those in the Apple firmament begin to rend their garments and head for the hills in search of wild boar to assault, might I point to what some might see as an equally significant result of the survey?

Those who said they would definitely buy an iPad before the launch numbered a meager 3 percent. However, after the announcement, this soared to 9 percent.

Here's another little statistic that I have secured from Retrevo's pie chart of muted colors: 21 percent of those surveyed after January 27 said they were "interested, but would need more information before they buy one." Which might mean that a little nudging, accompanied by a little keeping up with the more adventurous Joneses, could generate enormous sales.

I have no idea how typical Retrevo users are of America's vast and multi-natured population--well, yes, Retrevo only surveyed its own users.

But I know there will be a statistically insignificant few who will think that such a pessimistic interpretation of data will encourage any retailer who decides to order, say, 90 iPads on the basis of these findings, to get a little discount.

(Edited to reflect the fact that the "Ultimate Electronics Marketplace" is not actually a retailer)

[samkash387]

But I know a significant many, who, when employed by a bias website, will think, dispite some fairly solid data from a specific group (Retrevo users), that they still need to find a way to read around the data and present it in a way that is potentially positive for Apple.

[dandymac]

Well it's more likely that people such as yourself will try their hardest to make sure that people will not like anything Apple.

Solid data? Indeed, solid before the iPad is even in stores and ready to be in peoples hands. Even if the iPad is not a huge success, it is my hope that the tablet computing genre will get something to live up to, just as phone makers did upon the release of the original iPhone.

[wacko_javo]

But the bias at Cnet is not as obvious as when reading Engadget, though. I've never read anything by Chris Matyszczyk before (I generally just drop by to watch Molly Wood's columns) so forgive me for prejudging, but I tend to think it's more him than Cnet, as I've never felt the bias 'round here.

[fredsled]

Sales data is the best data...let's see what that says by mid year. Market research like this is meaningless. Even if it is accurate, that still leaves about 50 to 100 million people in the US alone that might consider an iPad...capture 10% of that and you've got a couple of billion smackeroos. That might satisfy shareholders...

[solitare_pax]

Lets see - a survey, done in the dead of winter about an expensive new toy just as exorbitant bills from Christmas finally come due. Hm - I know after my over-generous holiday spending spree, I will be thriving on ramen until March - by which time, the tax refund will be in the mailbox...

I hope.

[DougScripts]

Isn't Retrevo the same group that posted some dubious survey about netbook sales last September?

[dandymac]

Wow. that is all I can say about the iPad.... welllll, not exactly all. The hype machine around RUMORS is what led to this disappointment over the iPad. Once people get their hands on it I am certain it will be HUGE!. All of the complaints sound almost exactly like the complaints around the original iPhone. You now own an iPhone, or something derivative, do you not?
[CNET editor's note: Prohibited self promotion link deleted.]

[GEdwards69]

Absolutely. And it's worth remembering it was website such as this that created the massive hype, not Apple.

[dumbspammers]

No, I do not own an iPhone, nor an iPod, nor will I own an iPad, nor an iMaxiPad, nor will I now even consider a Mac, because the totalitarian regime in Cupertino has demonstrated that they want to control how I use the products I buy with my money, and I won't put up with their crap. So I have a cheap LG phone, a cheap no-name MP3/MP4 player, and I'll eventually get the Google tablet if it's not locked down like Apple products are.

But no Apple stuff for me, thanks anyhow, Mr. Jobs. Now bugger off, there's a nice megalomaniac.

[jlongino]

@GEdwards69

oh please:

> iPad
>
> Our most advanced Technology in a magical
> and revolutionary device at an unbelievable price.

from an Apple direct email advertisement

[jnibrahim]

I don't think I need killer apps for the iPad. All I remember saying to myself while using the iPod Touch as my email client and web browser in my house was this is awesome but would be perfect with a bigger screen. The stability, battery life, screen quality, and "instant on" features are what I really valued on the iPod Touch and expect that to be transfered to the iPad. I have yet to experience a netbook to compete in those areas. This will also be a nice digital frame replacement. I'm sure the percentages will change in the positive direction once people actually use it vs just reading the good and bad hype about it.

[Jay Jennings]

Exactly! There are many days when the only thing keeping me from doing all my work on my iPhone is the small screen size. I have done it, but it's not fun when I need to reply to several emails, etc. So "just a big iPhone" to me isn't a disappointment, it's what I want!

Jay Jennings

[BigGuns149]

There are a number of netbooks with 8-10 hours worth of battery life so I wouldn't consider the iPad's purported battery life of 10 hours a dramatic improvement over what I could get out of a netbook for a lower price. Furthermore, no third party has even confirmed said figure so you are merely taken such claim at face value. I haven't seen stability problems with any recent version of Windows or Linux so the stability argument doesn't seem compelling for this device.

I will agree with you that an using an IPS panel ought to offer the ipad really good contrast and color reproduction, but Apple messed up by making it a 4:3 aspect ratio. It doesn't retain the same aspect ratio as the ipod touch and most video content is better suited for a wider aspect ratio so I am not sure what the rationale for said resolution would have been.

About the only compelling argument I see is a fast boot up time, which while compelling I am not sure is enough to make up for the higher price tag and other deficiencies compared to a netbook.

I don't question that there will be a good size market for said device, plenty of Apple fans bought the original iphone without the app store before an SDK was even released for $600, but I think a lot of the cynicism is justified because said device isn't a replacement for a phone or a notebook. The 3G enabled version will probably be somewhat popular due to a reasonably priced data plan without a contract, but the wifi only version seems incredibly expensive for a device that is decidedly inferior (eg. no camera, no multitasking, limited connectivity options, limited to applications Apple approves, etc.) to netbooks selling for $100-200 less than the entry level ipad.

I imagine a revised version of the ipad with a camera and multitasking will sell several times more units than the first generation. Either that or Apple will drop the price dramatically like they did with the iPhone shortly after it was released. As Apple has shown with the first gen iphone they rarely give up on a promising device they just come back with another generation that fixes a lot of the flaws that the first gen device had.

[kelmon]

I'd go along with this. The iPad represents convenience computing where everything is simple and the user has to do very little to make things happen. John Gruber described this situation very nicely with the old fashioned car analogy that I typically avoid but seems to make sense this time (http://daringfireball.net/2010/01/various_ipad_thoughts). Basically, people tend to buy cars with automatic transmissions because they are easier to use but that enthusiasts tend to buy cars with manual transmissions because they like the extra control. This is where computing is going and, frankly, has been going since its inception. There will be those who will decry the iPad as being overly simplistic and not letting them do what they want, and for them there are the platforms like Windows, OS X, Linux, etc. However, for everyone else who just wants to get some "normal" work done then devices like the iPad will do the job much more simply.

[marvindmeh]

As a researcher and somewhat of a Stats expert, I'd like to know more about the methodology employed in this "study." I can see the numbers, but Homer Simpson is right, "people can come up with statistics to prove anything. 14% of people know that."

[cincytee]

So the percentage of Retrevo users who "would definitely" buy an iPad is already higher than Apple's overall market share ... and this is *bad* news for Apple? Huh. And if, say, a quarter of those who want to see more decide they like what they see and buy an iPad, that makes the total nearly 13 percent. Were I Apple, I think I'd be OK with walking into the netbook/'Net appliance market with 1 in 8 sales. So, again, this is *bad* news for Apple? Huh.

[darabl2]

It may be higher than Apple's percentage in the desktop space but the pad is more of an overgrown ipod touch so wouldn't good news be that 90%+ amount of people want one?

[cincytee]

> It may be higher than Apple's percentage in the desktop space but the pad is more of an overgrown ipod touch so wouldn't good news be that 90%+ amount of people want one?

Similar as they appear to be, I don't think Apple sees the two devices as aimed at quite the same people. The iPad is their answer to the market demand for very portable but still relatively functional computers. Other manufacturers' solution is the netbook; Apple's is different. I suspect it's different enough that it will sell fairly well (at least up to Apple's own target). On a slightly tangential note: The first thing I thought when I saw this was, "I bet my doctor wishes he could carry that instead of the laptop he was carting around had last time I saw him."

[El_Oso_Grande]

The headlines will change once it is out....no doubt about that. The iPad is pretty revolutionary but it is going to take time for it to get into peoples' hands.

[sharmajunior]

Revolutionary??!

These kinds of devices have been around for ages. Just because Apple released something similar doesn't make it revolutionary.

[Renegade Knight]

Netboks were revolutionarry. This is something else.

[BigGuns149]

How is it revolutionary? I remember seeing a tablet by QuBE IIRC with a similar screen size/resolution and approximately the same clock speed (although probably a little slower in real world performance) nearly 10 years ago. Obviously it was decidedly more expensive back then, but given 10 years of time selling similar hardware for $500 is hardly revolutionary. Beyond using a IPS panel on the ipad I don't even see anything terribly novel about it.

The reason why it will be a while before many people buy an ipad I have a feeling is because a lot of people particularly in this economy are going to be wise enough to wait for the second gen unit that will likely offer a camera and multitasking possibly at a lower price point.

[deadwill69]

This is what kills me. you people sit here and grip about a company who released a product in 1989 that did the same thing. It was called the newton. Yes is flopped, but it lead to the development of the PDA which led to the development of the smart phone which led back to Apple releasing the iphone. And you think this company that blew the doors off the smart phone industry hasn't done it's homework? They released this thing 21 years ago and it was so far ahead of it's time it's not funny! Now the time is right. We welcome our new ipad overloards!

[deniceels]

Hmm refresh me, Psion Organiser in 1984 or Newton in 1989 comes first? Seems like fair number of people forgetting that Psion ruled the PDA side back in those days and glorify Newton.

[artistjoh]

I seem to remember that in the period between the iPhone announcement and it first going on sale there were numerous prognostications of doom much like this. The lack of features, lack of a keyboard, and high price had pundits lining up to suggest the iPhone was a certain failure. Even now, when iPhone sales are at an all time high those same doomsayers line up behind every so called iPhone killer to claim the demise of the iPhone. As each one arrives with fanfare and fades away the iPhone keeps on growing in popularity.

The iPad may or may not be successful but surveys like this are meaningless as indicators of what consumers may or may not do about a new and untested product from Apple.

[Renegade Knight]

I seem to remember the iPhone acutally lived up to the hype. Unlike this. Apple did take a hint though and add missing features less they lose their thunder.

[BigGuns149]

The subsequent generations of the iPhone resolved many of the criticisms of the original iphone's deficiencies (ie. no cut and paste, high price, etc.). The quick and uncharacteristically steep price cut on the original iPhone shortly after its' launch shows that even Apple knew that demand wasn't quite as high as they expected on the original iphone. Between price cuts and resolving many of the deficiencies in the first gen product they managed to turn a promising product into a successful product.

[artistjoh]

@Renegade Knight

Until the iPad ships and you get to use it you cannot know whether or not the iPad lives up to its hype or not. Also hype from sources other than Apple are not something you can use as a measurement of failing to live up to the hype. There were people predicting ludicrous features including gestures in the air for input and interaction with the device. Apple at no point suggested anything remotely like that was possible and it is foolish to be disappointed if such things are not in the feature set. The average person, however was not caught up in that mania of rumors about the device and so will experience no particular disappointment and are likely to see it as mind blowing in its capabilities. Time will tell

@BugGuns 149

Copy and paste is a feature that you and I use regularly but I suspect there are large numbers of people who never use it and don't care. Long before our geek features were added the iPhone was a runaway success. Its popularity came in all sorts of unexpected ways. A hit music clip of people playing instruments on their iPhones was an indicator that the game had changed and that the device was being used in new ways.

The iPad is a new platform that will provide lots of surprises. As an artist I can't wait to get one because I suspect it will be a perfect sketch book. I think even Apple will be waiting to see what use people put it to in the real world, but until it is here and people are trying it out for real we have no way of knowing whether or not the current feature set is appropriate or not. Also, as you point out, Apple is likely to add, adapt, and generally evolve the iPad over time so it is a bit early to be making judgments as to its worthiness or not.

[lkrupp]

There are significant number of people, many of whom slither around in this very forum, who desperately want Apple to fall flat on its face, to fail miserably. Success has bred virulent contempt when it comes to anything Apple. This little "study" will be trotted out at every dog and pony show the contemptuous put on from now on.

[Grigsby_51]

"We" don't want apple to fail. I say, we, because I am one of those nay-sayers who doesn't think apple has all that hot of technology. What I, and I think, many, want to see is the apple kool-aid drinkers to wake up from their zombie state.

[samkash387]

@Grigsby

that is the point of the posts I tend to make around here. I don't care if apple fails or not. it just bugs me when i read overly biased articles about how a product is great on the sole basis that it is made by apple, when there may be a competitors product that is just as good in its own light, but the editors glaze over it because it isn't apple

[fredsled]

Grigsby51...why do you care if we the "Apple Kool-Aid drinkers" "wake up from our zombie states"? Apple makes products that work well together, don't constantly give error messages, and generally are ingenious in design, with an unbelievable amount of value for those who take the time to learn their full functionality. What is to wake up from? And why do you hold such a grudge? Are you smarter than Steve Jobs but just never got "lucky" like he did? Sounds like sour grapes to me.

[Renegade Knight]

I want Apple to fix it's design flaws, get it's quallity back up, and otherwise be worth the higher price.

[Constable Odo]

Many of these people want the iPad to fail because they would love to have an HP Slate running a full version of Windows 7, Flash support, multi-tasking, a USB port, thousands of viruses and a 2 hour battery life. Nothing could be finer for them than having Intel and Microsoft stickers on a tablet. Out of the five or so times the Windows tablet has failed miserably for consumers over the years, maybe number 6 will be the charm.

[JimPratt3]

I just have enough techno junk already. Why do I need yet more of it? I have a life!

[rembrandt44]

Population of the united states: 304,059,724
If you extrapolate to the country, 9% is over 27 million units.
That sounds pretty good number for Apple, and remember 9% say definitely. 21% are interested but need more info. Together that is 30% of the US that are either going to buy or are considering buying. How many companies launch a brand new product and have 82 MILLION Americans interested. Oh yea and if you consider that this "App Tablet" may be considered a totally new category of hardware, that would put their market-share at 100%. (A stretch? Yes, but still true.)

[gwailo247]

You start heading off track with your second sentence. If you're going to use statistics, why don't you use more relevant statistics, like, oh I don't know, Americans aged 18-64 who are most likely to buy such a device, not five year olds and octogenerians.

Whoops, you just lost a 100 million "potential" customers.

Now, take the next step and do some research when it comes to what percentage of people who are DEFINITELY going to buy something, actually go out and buy something, and you may be on the right track. Telling a pollster that you're going to buy something is free. Now turn around and ask that person to shell out 700-1000 bucks on something they never used, and see how strong definitely still is.

[sharmajunior]

Since when exactly does a baby who comes out of the womb cry iPaaaaaad!

[samkash387]

Also, don't call this a new category of hardware when tablets have been around for ages, they just weren't made by apple.

however, they did suck equally

[dgutf]

Keep in mind that, even with 61% saying they wouldnt want one, that still leaves 39% who DO want one. Extrapolate that out over 50 million people or more, and thats an awful lot of I-pads. The Retrevo article states they surveyed 1,000 consumers. It doesnt say 1,000 computer fans, or 1,000 Apple customers, or even 1,000 digitally literate folks. Having a 39% slice of 50 million or more would probably make Mr. Jobs ecstatic.

[sharmajunior]

If not this, then the other. Nice theory though.

What about the whole undecided group?

[Renegade Knight]

39% of a tech crowd which is what 5% of the population? Most people I know don't even know about the pad yet.

[Grigsby_51]

The iPad will follow the same sales growth as the Lisa. A good idea, but got too clever with fashion over substance. Why anyone would opt for this dopey thing compared to a netbook is beyond me.

[KHannemann]

That's why you won't have one, but a lot of dopes will love it. Including my wife and inlaws, who would really hate a netbook.

It's not for everyone, just the dopes who don't want to struggle with windoze and other netbook shortcomings to do the smaller things they want to do.

[Renegade Knight]

@ KHannemann

Srugle with WiinDoze, Strugle with touch, ti's all the same. My touch is a PITA for certain things. Windoze a PITA for others and OSX for yet different things.

What was your point?

[chabig83]

"There's also an overwhelming discomfort with signing up with another data plan"...well then it's a good thing that there is no data plan to "sign up" for. Data is sold on a pay-as-you-go basis.

[SteveMcQwark]

Yes, you section is called Technically Incorrect, Chris, not Factually Incorrect. As someone who's seriousness is always in question, I hold you to a higher standard of excellence this kind of thing. Very disappointed :D

I can understand lamenting on features with no real justification, but listening to all the drivel that makes up things to complain about is a bit below you, don't you think?

[aj37]

This is news?

If you asked a random sample of Americans whether they need to go to the bathroom right now, probably at least 80% would answer "no." But that doesn't mean they won't go eventually...

[murph0613]

That is a really bad analogy. Sorry, someone had to say it. I'd hate for you to go through life thinking that your logic works.

[Renegade Knight]

Ok, here is a stat for you. I'm not bying one. My touch has sold me on not replacing it when it breaks. It's a PITA for my use which as it happens is music and audio books.

[jessiethe3rd]

No doubt this thing will have Apple's traditional sex appeal. Goes to show how many people are concerned about their status and enjoy devices like this as a means to look cool or hip.

[joodi3k]

"Goes to show how many people are concerned about their status and enjoy devices like this as a means to look cool or hip."
Like these guys:
http://www.abbeyroad.com/studios/studio3/

Until Windows has something like OSX's AudioMidi Setup, I'll pass on Microsoft for Audio Production.
Before you try to mention the Control Panel, find the part of the CP that does the same things as this:
http://jobsluder.com/kirk/osx-midi-troubleshoot_files/audio-midi-setup.png

[GSOgymrat]

The only Apple product I've ever owned was an iPod Touch, which I ended up returning because I liked the Zune HD better.... yes, I said it. I am considering getting a iPad because for me the "killer app" is the e-reader. I'm not going to watch movies on an iPad l when I have a home theater or a laptop with a bigger screen. I'm not going to play games on it because I'm not into that. My phone and laptop can surf the net and do "apps". However if I can replace the newspapers, magazines and books lying around my house with a color e-reader, that might be worth buying.

I don't think anyone really knows of iPad will be a success or not until people have an opportunity to use it and see if the benefit is worth the cost.

[SteveMcQwark]

<snort> You like the *Zune*? lol <shun> <shun>

[Renegade Knight]

@ SteveMcQwark

Zune's better if you actually like music. They are not taking away the ipod dominance but they did pass it up for features/interface/music quality.

[rapier1]

Yes, if you actually use your music player for something weird like listening to music, the Zune is a lot better than the available Apple products.

[karport]

Apple has succeeded at creating demand across the range of demographics at prices while often at a premium were not show stoppers. Apple is a highly profitable company but with a scant % of the computer market. Mom and Dad are not going to indulge their children with another expensive device and carrier phone bill in todays economy. College bound kids are not going forgo a laptop or netbook for another toy that costs between $500 to $900 plus a monthly fee. Business's and institutions are looking at their cost and not going to indulge in devices that are speculative in terms in need and the business traveler is not going to give up their keyboards and displays.

I don't care what surveys say, the hype is going to evaporate and practicality is going to takeover in a economy where money is tight and hoopla will give away to common sense. If for some reason people start clamoring for tablets (and why that would happen is a mystery) there will be lower priced alternatives introduced and offered that will make the I-Pad a very low volume product. Netbooks account for 30 million of sales in the PC market because they serve a purpose at a lower price. Apple will not be successful in creating demand for a tablet that competes to include for books that are still available. College textbooks are not widely available in e-book form so talking about that market is today a hope rather than a reality and if that comes to pass Amazon's Kindle has a major leg up.

[EvanSei]

I don't think that it takes a huge survey to see that people do not like the iPad, all you have to do is scroll down to the comments section of the article talking about the iPad debut to see that!

[HlLLARY CLITON]

I did a quick survey and the vast majority never heard of Retrevo nor wanted to

[Chasingu]

I don't want an iPad, unless I can get it for free.

[my_john]

I agree. I thought I wanted an iPad but after seeing the prices I will buy a laptop instead. Why pay over $700 or $800 dollars for an iPad when I can purchase a laptop and a book reader for about the same price and have more options. In a book reader I want the ability to down load free books from my local library and I don't think the iPad has the capability to do this.