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November 22, 2009 11:31 AM PST

Has Twitter peaked?

by Chris Matyszczyk

I was just sending a tweet about some excellent chicken livers I'd eaten when I espied some information that made my acid perform a refluctive motion.

According to eMarketer, three different digital actuaries declared that Twitter traffic has performed a slight plummet.

While comScore suggested a drop of 8.1 percent in October and Compete estimated 2.1 percent, while Nielsen, that apogee of accuracy, declared a 27.8 percent decline between September and October.

Nostradamus is on Twitter. Does this secure its future?

(Credit: CC RachScottHalls/Flickr)

It seems that these figures, blessedly inconsistent as they are, are not taking account of all the third-party and mobile methods of keeping everyone up with your eating, drinking, reading, philosophizing and socializing.

But is it also possible that some people will simply never participate in the Twitter phenomenon, finding it either annoying, uncool, or even too much effort?

With Twitter intent on becoming more businesslike (why does the word 'more' seem slightly redundant here?), 2010 seems destined to be the year that the microblogging service becomes either de rigueur or dazed and confused.

Will Twitter become a permanent habit or a disappearing, perhaps even elitist, fad? I'll tweet Nostradamus and ask him.

You didn't know Nostradamus is on Twitter? Where have you been?

Chris Matyszczyk is an award-winning creative director who advises major corporations on content creation and marketing. He brings an irreverent, sarcastic, and sometimes ironic voice to the tech world. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.
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by jchanski21 November 22, 2009 12:21 PM PST
"According to eMarketer, three different digital actuaries declared that Twitter traffic has performed a slight plummet."

Performed a slight plummet? Last i checked, verbs aren't performed. Don't let your seemingly intrinsic need to use superfluous verbiage detract from the article. And yes, those words are part of my vocabulary, and yes, I actually used them all correctly.
Reply to this comment
by November 22, 2009 2:07 PM PST
The other thing that bothered me was "SLIGHT plummet." Is that like a minor crisis?
by ObsceneZen November 22, 2009 4:24 PM PST
jchan, grammar fail: "plummet" as he uses it here is the noun form of the verb. Don't let your seemingly intrinsic need to correct other people's grammar detract from your ability to know what you're talking about.
by atomD21 November 22, 2009 6:36 PM PST
I would have thought the presence of the adjective "slight" would have been the clue that plummet was being used as a noun...
by jchanski21 November 23, 2009 6:22 AM PST
Sticking an adjective in front of a verb doesn't make it a noun. I think it's pretty obvious the correct statement should have been "traffic has plummetted slightly." Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think we should start saying things like "the stock market performed a miniscule skyrocket today" just because it sounds cool.
by 9kok November 23, 2009 9:33 AM PST
You are such a ******.
by iertry November 22, 2009 12:25 PM PST
As you even stated in your article the stats don't take account for the third party apps people use to access twitter. In other words the stats are practically useless. On my iPhone and Mac I use tweetie to post to twitter. I post many times a day but never visit the site. There is no real stat to compare twitter use with other sites.
Reply to this comment
by cvaldes1831 November 22, 2009 2:57 PM PST
Absolutely correct.

Twitter use is driven by handheld devices. Look at the tweets: the vast majority are not posted from the web: they are posted by a third-party application/service.

I almost never access Twitter via a web browser, whether it be on my computer or my iPod touch. 95% of my Twitter usage has been done on various iPhone/iPod touch apps: Twitterrific, Echofon, several others, and currently Tweetdeck.

As a matter of fact, Twitter.com on a web browser is arguably the worst way to access Twitter.
by mrobmsu November 22, 2009 12:50 PM PST
never really saw the value or usefulness of twitter--facebook is silly enough.
Reply to this comment
by myles taylor November 22, 2009 1:54 PM PST
Second that.
by mjconver November 22, 2009 2:41 PM PST
Third that. I joined twitter in its first month, tweeted twice, and lost interest. I'm not that vain, and my ego isn't that weak.
by atomD21 November 22, 2009 6:37 PM PST
Yeah, I tweeted a handful of times... I want my 500 or so characters back...
by winstein November 22, 2009 6:48 PM PST
Facebook replaces all those photo sharing and personal web sites and empowers non-tech people to have a central repository to share their media files. Why send out pictures if you can let your relative and friends know exactly what you are doing?

I see more PR firms use Twitter than any other tools. Twitter will be the one that replaces traditional PR processes.
by JavaMan09 November 23, 2009 10:18 AM PST
"But is it also possible that some people will simply never participate in the Twitter phenomenon, finding it either annoying, uncool, or even too much effort?"

Or, how about stupid?

I am quoting and agreeing with this post. The whole concept of someone constantly letting the world know your mundane tasks seems rather wasteful to me. Ok, maybe for following a conference that you can't be at, Twitter is good, but everyday stuff. Nah,
by cube3 November 22, 2009 1:02 PM PST
that's a 10-4 good buddy.
Reply to this comment
by dzankizakon November 22, 2009 1:13 PM PST
"annoying, uncool, or even too much effort"

Yes, too much effort and not enough value.

Most people need to filter and reduce the amount of junk they receive from various channels. Twitter seems to only add to the noise.
Reply to this comment
by WeCanDoBIZ November 23, 2009 12:16 AM PST
I wrote a blog article in April 2008 suggesting all the same things and saying it wouldn't last. Now I feel like the guy who said Rock n Roll would be over by June sometime in the 50s.

Consider Twitter an information network rather than social network and it all makes sense. It's a replacement for IM, it's a replacement for RSS and other news feeds, it's even an occasional replacement for email. If you're not reading interesting stuff there then you're following the wrong people. Even e-mail is useless if all you get is spam.

But I will concede that Twitter could be easier to use and more obvious to extract value from. Too many of the apps available focus on cool rather than genuinely useful.

We introduced a Twitter Sales Leads tool at the end of last week though and the feedback has been amazing. We take people who are tweeting a need for a specific product or service and make that available, minus all the rest of the noise, to companies that provide what's being requested as a sales lead.

Tell me that isn't powerful!

Ian Hendry
CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ
http://www.wecando.biz
by VisionAforethought November 22, 2009 1:29 PM PST
Although Twitter could be a force for good, (such as fielding questions), I have found no one has any interest in responding to such tweets - preferring instead to share their trivialities of life or engaging in self promotion. Narcism wins over chivalry. (@oflife)
Reply to this comment
by dwinks November 22, 2009 1:59 PM PST
I can only hope to read about a 100% drop in usage at some point. Twitter is the beginning of the decline of modern civilization.
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by Dan7637 November 22, 2009 2:23 PM PST
twitter is just another annoying way to let other people know what you are doing as if anybody cares

iam just f***ing annoyed about hearing it in the news all the time when it has done nothing
Reply to this comment
by noesnoesnoes November 22, 2009 2:51 PM PST
Asking "has Twitter peaked?" is like asking "has H1N1 peaked?"

Literally.
Reply to this comment
by dreidogg November 22, 2009 6:12 PM PST
The spread of viruses does peak over time so.......?
by lmr2020 November 22, 2009 3:08 PM PST
I guess I'm the only one uncool enough here to admit that I love Twitter. I don't have time for Facebook, My Space or any of the other social networking tools that require a lot of maintenance and effort. I can catch up with everyone I need to on Twitter, type 140 characters or less, and be done with it. :)
Reply to this comment
by dreidogg November 22, 2009 6:13 PM PST
If Facebook is major maintenance to you then umm...wow.....Your life really sucks!
by forkboy November 22, 2009 3:55 PM PST
I've been twittering for a few months and I still don't quite get it.

It's okay, but I don't really get a buzz out of it like I had hoped.

Maybe I'm just an old fart though.
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by linuxkg100 November 22, 2009 4:01 PM PST
I agree with you lmr2020 -

lately it seems that more folks are getting fired using Facebook, and I just heard from another friend of my by using twitter got a new job, so I say, Twitter is the best for what it is and does.. If anything more people should be dumping facebook, but that's just my opinion. :) hehehe.
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by dreidogg November 22, 2009 6:16 PM PST
Major companies use Facebook for recruiting so what you say is not the absolute truth. My point being any connection or resource for employment is a good resource.
by atomD21 November 22, 2009 6:40 PM PST
People being fired for their stuff on Facebook are just stupid. Why would you identify yourself as an employee of some professional organization or law enforcement agency and then post half naked drunken pics as if no one would ever see them?
by AnubicDarque November 22, 2009 4:37 PM PST
Twitter has had a huge climb and it is only to be expected that there will be those who leave it, and those who will remain with it. Perhaps its now just starting to stabilize in its users.
Reply to this comment
by joelam888 November 22, 2009 5:27 PM PST
How does Twitter make money, by the way?
Reply to this comment
by atomD21 November 22, 2009 6:41 PM PST
Same way youtube did. Perceived value.
by magicmaster November 22, 2009 7:15 PM PST
This is a good question. There is no such as no cost. Someone must ultimately bear the cost. Even voluteering to maintain Twitter is considered "cost" (because you have devoted the time and labor to it)
by clamenza November 23, 2009 9:14 AM PST
They don't, yet. It's all venture capitalists.
Facebook has turned a profit, I believe.
by cvaldes1831 November 22, 2009 5:45 PM PST
Oh, if you talking about quality of content, yes, it is entirely possible that Twitter has maxed out on quality.

If you are talking about the number of users, no way. Twitter is no where near its maximum number of potential users.

Those are two separate topics.

You should be more specific.
Reply to this comment
by Mr.Whippy November 22, 2009 7:48 PM PST
Twitter is sms on the net that's all. It's not twitter that's the problem it's how people use it. Twitter is 140 lousy characters. You can't handle that? Yet you can handle, farmville, mafia wars, comparing your friends like 'things', stalkers seeing your photos blah blah.

twitter is great for getting info out there in real time. Important info not what you had for lunch. I agree with the comment about 'the downfall of society' though to an extent. But you can throw facebook and half the internet into the same basket. Apparently our attention spans are shortening. we get bored quicker these days. People can't sit still and read a book, watch a movie or have a meal without checking something online. I'm 40 i can handle it. But young kids growing up are going to be scatter brains when they get older.
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by EvanSei November 22, 2009 8:45 PM PST
is twitter dying? No, why? Simply because there is nothing to replace it. Why did myspace die, something replaced it. Twitter will not die till something is there to take its place
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by kgsbca November 22, 2009 11:53 PM PST
There are things that can replace twitter - like watching paint dry or grass grow.

I think Shakespeare even wrote a play about twitter - "Much Ado About Nothing".

The twitter PR machine has run out of gas. They valiantly tried to scare some poorly managed web company into buying them, but since Meg Whitman left ebay, there's nobody gullible enough to buy them. I don't know, maybe after Time Warner spins out AOL, they might merge with twitter.
by EvanSei November 23, 2009 5:06 PM PST
@kgdbca
watching grass grow might works were you are but the grass has stopped growing hear in washington (too cold) and the paint is bad for my health, so no not much is here. I guess they could sell twitter to Palin she could tell us all obout how she can see russia from her house :)
by Mweaver2k9 November 22, 2009 9:10 PM PST
the new RT feature will ruin it
Reply to this comment
by fondy November 25, 2009 9:04 PM PST
I've found Twitter to be a convenient way to keep up with favorite bands and comments from people in the public eye, but as a communication tool between myself and friends, it seems a little redundant. Maybe if I didn't already have a Facebook account and an SMS package for my phone I would feel differently. I suspect that if Twitter wasn't such a useful tool for bloggers and reporters that it probably wouldn't be getting as much media coverage as it currently receives.
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About Technically Incorrect

Chris Matyszczyk brings a fresh and irreverent perspective to the tech world in his CNET blog, Technically Incorrect. He is a member of the CNET Blog Network and is not an employee of CNET.

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