Has Twitter peaked?

I was just sending a tweet about some excellent chicken livers I'd eaten when I espied some information that made my acid perform a refluctive motion.

According to eMarketer, three different digital actuaries declared that Twitter traffic has performed a slight plummet.

While comScore suggested a drop of 8.1 percent in October and Compete estimated 2.1 percent, while Nielsen, that apogee of accuracy, declared a 27.8 percent decline between September and October.

Nostradamus is on Twitter. Does this secure its future?

(Credit: CC RachScottHalls/Flickr)

It seems that these figures, blessedly inconsistent as they are, are not taking account of all the third-party and mobile methods of keeping everyone up with your eating, drinking, reading, philosophizing and socializing.

But is it also possible that some people will simply never participate in the Twitter phenomenon, finding it either annoying, uncool, or even too much effort?

With Twitter intent on becoming more businesslike (why does the word 'more' seem slightly redundant here?), 2010 seems destined to be the year that the microblogging service becomes either de rigueur or dazed and confused.

Will Twitter become a permanent habit or a disappearing, perhaps even elitist, fad? I'll tweet Nostradamus and ask him.

You didn't know Nostradamus is on Twitter? Where have you been?

[jchanski21]

"According to eMarketer, three different digital actuaries declared that Twitter traffic has performed a slight plummet."<br /><br />Performed a slight plummet? Last i checked, verbs aren't performed. Don't let your seemingly intrinsic need to use superfluous verbiage detract from the article. And yes, those words are part of my vocabulary, and yes, I actually used them all correctly.

The other thing that bothered me was "SLIGHT plummet." Is that like a minor crisis?

[ObsceneZen]

jchan, grammar fail: "plummet" as he uses it here is the noun form of the verb. Don't let your seemingly intrinsic need to correct other people's grammar detract from your ability to know what you're talking about.

[atomD21]

I would have thought the presence of the adjective "slight" would have been the clue that plummet was being used as a noun...

[jchanski21]

Sticking an adjective in front of a verb doesn't make it a noun. I think it's pretty obvious the correct statement should have been "traffic has plummetted slightly." Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think we should start saying things like "the stock market performed a miniscule skyrocket today" just because it sounds cool.

[9kok]

You are such a ******.

[iertry]

As you even stated in your article the stats don't take account for the third party apps people use to access twitter. In other words the stats are practically useless. On my iPhone and Mac I use tweetie to post to twitter. I post many times a day but never visit the site. There is no real stat to compare twitter use with other sites.

[cvaldes1831]

Absolutely correct.<br /><br />Twitter use is driven by handheld devices. Look at the tweets: the vast majority are not posted from the web: they are posted by a third-party application/service.<br /><br />I almost never access Twitter via a web browser, whether it be on my computer or my iPod touch. 95% of my Twitter usage has been done on various iPhone/iPod touch apps: Twitterrific, Echofon, several others, and currently Tweetdeck.<br /><br />As a matter of fact, Twitter.com on a web browser is arguably the worst way to access Twitter.

[mrobmsu]

never really saw the value or usefulness of twitter--facebook is silly enough.

[myles taylor]

Second that.

[mjconver]

Third that. I joined twitter in its first month, tweeted twice, and lost interest. I'm not that vain, and my ego isn't that weak.

[atomD21]

Yeah, I tweeted a handful of times... I want my 500 or so characters back...

[winstein]

Facebook replaces all those photo sharing and personal web sites and empowers non-tech people to have a central repository to share their media files. Why send out pictures if you can let your relative and friends know exactly what you are doing?<br /><br />I see more PR firms use Twitter than any other tools. Twitter will be the one that replaces traditional PR processes.

[JavaMan09]

"But is it also possible that some people will simply never participate in the Twitter phenomenon, finding it either annoying, uncool, or even too much effort?"<br /><br />Or, how about stupid?<br /><br />I am quoting and agreeing with this post. The whole concept of someone constantly letting the world know your mundane tasks seems rather wasteful to me. Ok, maybe for following a conference that you can't be at, Twitter is good, but everyday stuff. Nah,

[cube3]

that's a 10-4 good buddy.

[dzankizakon]

"annoying, uncool, or even too much effort" <br /> <br />Yes, too much effort and not enough value. <br /> <br />Most people need to filter and reduce the amount of junk they receive from various channels. Twitter seems to only add to the noise.

[WeCanDoBIZ]

I wrote a blog article in April 2008 suggesting all the same things and saying it wouldn't last. Now I feel like the guy who said Rock n Roll would be over by June sometime in the 50s.<br /><br />Consider Twitter an information network rather than social network and it all makes sense. It's a replacement for IM, it's a replacement for RSS and other news feeds, it's even an occasional replacement for email. If you're not reading interesting stuff there then you're following the wrong people. Even e-mail is useless if all you get is spam.<br /><br />But I will concede that Twitter could be easier to use and more obvious to extract value from. Too many of the apps available focus on cool rather than genuinely useful.<br /><br />We introduced a Twitter Sales Leads tool at the end of last week though and the feedback has been amazing. We take people who are tweeting a need for a specific product or service and make that available, minus all the rest of the noise, to companies that provide what's being requested as a sales lead.<br /><br />Tell me that isn't powerful!<br /><br />Ian Hendry<br />CEO, WeCanDo.BIZ<br />http://www.wecando.biz

[VisionAforethought]

Although Twitter could be a force for good, (such as fielding questions), I have found no one has any interest in responding to such tweets - preferring instead to share their trivialities of life or engaging in self promotion. Narcism wins over chivalry. (@oflife)

[dwinks]

I can only hope to read about a 100% drop in usage at some point. Twitter is the beginning of the decline of modern civilization.

[Dan7637]

twitter is just another annoying way to let other people know what you are doing as if anybody cares<br /><br />iam just f***ing annoyed about hearing it in the news all the time when it has done nothing

[noesnoesnoes]

Asking "has Twitter peaked?" is like asking "has H1N1 peaked?"<br /><br />Literally.

[dreidogg]

The spread of viruses does peak over time so.......?

[lmr2020]

I guess I'm the only one uncool enough here to admit that I love Twitter. I don't have time for Facebook, My Space or any of the other social networking tools that require a lot of maintenance and effort. I can catch up with everyone I need to on Twitter, type 140 characters or less, and be done with it. :)

[dreidogg]

If Facebook is major maintenance to you then umm...wow.....Your life really sucks!

[forkboy]

I've been twittering for a few months and I still don't quite get it. <br /><br />It's okay, but I don't really get a buzz out of it like I had hoped.<br /><br />Maybe I'm just an old fart though.

[linuxkg100]

I agree with you lmr2020 -<br /><br />lately it seems that more folks are getting fired using Facebook, and I just heard from another friend of my by using twitter got a new job, so I say, Twitter is the best for what it is and does.. If anything more people should be dumping facebook, but that's just my opinion. :) hehehe.

[dreidogg]

Major companies use Facebook for recruiting so what you say is not the absolute truth. My point being any connection or resource for employment is a good resource.

[atomD21]

People being fired for their stuff on Facebook are just stupid. Why would you identify yourself as an employee of some professional organization or law enforcement agency and then post half naked drunken pics as if no one would ever see them?

[AnubicDarque]

Twitter has had a huge climb and it is only to be expected that there will be those who leave it, and those who will remain with it. Perhaps its now just starting to stabilize in its users.

[joelam888]

How does Twitter make money, by the way?

[atomD21]

Same way youtube did. Perceived value.

[magicmaster]

This is a good question. There is no such as no cost. Someone must ultimately bear the cost. Even voluteering to maintain Twitter is considered "cost" (because you have devoted the time and labor to it)

[clamenza]

They don't, yet. It's all venture capitalists.<br />Facebook has turned a profit, I believe.

[cvaldes1831]

Oh, if you talking about quality of content, yes, it is entirely possible that Twitter has maxed out on quality.<br /><br />If you are talking about the number of users, no way. Twitter is no where near its maximum number of potential users.<br /><br />Those are two separate topics.<br /><br />You should be more specific.

[Mr.Whippy]

Twitter is sms on the net that's all. It's not twitter that's the problem it's how people use it. Twitter is 140 lousy characters. You can't handle that? Yet you can handle, farmville, mafia wars, comparing your friends like 'things', stalkers seeing your photos blah blah.<br /><br />twitter is great for getting info out there in real time. Important info not what you had for lunch. I agree with the comment about 'the downfall of society' though to an extent. But you can throw facebook and half the internet into the same basket. Apparently our attention spans are shortening. we get bored quicker these days. People can't sit still and read a book, watch a movie or have a meal without checking something online. I'm 40 i can handle it. But young kids growing up are going to be scatter brains when they get older.

[EvanSei]

is twitter dying? No, why? Simply because there is nothing to replace it. Why did myspace die, something replaced it. Twitter will not die till something is there to take its place

[kgsbca]

There are things that can replace twitter - like watching paint dry or grass grow.<br /><br />I think Shakespeare even wrote a play about twitter - "Much Ado About Nothing".<br /><br />The twitter PR machine has run out of gas. They valiantly tried to scare some poorly managed web company into buying them, but since Meg Whitman left ebay, there's nobody gullible enough to buy them. I don't know, maybe after Time Warner spins out AOL, they might merge with twitter.

[EvanSei]

@kgdbca<br />watching grass grow might works were you are but the grass has stopped growing hear in washington (too cold) and the paint is bad for my health, so no not much is here. I guess they could sell twitter to Palin she could tell us all obout how she can see russia from her house :)

[Mweaver2k9]

the new RT feature will ruin it

[fondy]

I've found Twitter to be a convenient way to keep up with favorite bands and comments from people in the public eye, but as a communication tool between myself and friends, it seems a little redundant. Maybe if I didn't already have a Facebook account and an SMS package for my phone I would feel differently. I suspect that if Twitter wasn't such a useful tool for bloggers and reporters that it probably wouldn't be getting as much media coverage as it currently receives.