Vint Cerf: Video streaming to give way to downloading

Vint Cerf, one of the fathers of the Internet and Google's chief Internet evangelist, talked with Beet.tv's Andy Plesser about the future of video and broadband at the Personal Democracy Forum in New York.

Cerf expects that video will be downloaded rather than streamed over time. With gigabit for second speed, users could download an hour of video in 16 seconds. "It's like the iPod--you can download music faster than you can listen to it," he said. Cerf also said that broadcasting, rather than downloading a separate copy to every user, is a good delivery model, and that users will have more control over which ads to watch.

However, obtaining the bandwidth to download a movie in seconds is a problem. Cerf said that the U.S needs policies that will cause more broadband to be rolled out everywhere in country. "We need to have as many broadband solutions as possible to evaluate for cost and deploy in the places where they are most effective," he said.

He added that incentives are needed for investments in infrastructure, and it could entail regulation of some aspects of the Internet in order to assure that there is either competition or fair access to the underlying broadband resources. The U.S. is far behind other countries in its regulatory posture and still very hands off, Cerf said. "As a nostrum, it hasn't worked out very well," he said.

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[Lerianis]

What world is this man living in? Video streaming is going to be the way to go, as bandwidth and internet access get higher and faster. Most people do NOT want to keep an episode of their favorite TV show on their hard drive to watch it, they would rather stream it.

[groink_hi]

I think Lerianis is mis-interpreting Cerf's comments, as well not looking ahead at the big picture. I think the future is portability. I believe with the iPhone and other smartphone devices becoming more popular, less and less people will be chained down at their PCs by cabled broadband. What Cerf means is that video will be more like podcasting of audio today; download the video content using the broadband speeds to the portable device, and then take it on the road. There was an article earlier today on CNet where desktop sales are way down, and portables are on the rise. Another reason why I don't think streaming is the future is that I believe streaming overall is still a business deep in the red. Bandwidth at the NOCs around the world are not getting cheaper. It costs these streaming companies millions of dollars per month in bandwidth costs. And then you have the hardware upkeep costs of these server farms. I don't think partnerships or advertising can cover all the expenses. The only reason streaming is hot right now is that the P2P solutions are not working out for these leechers who are impatient and don't want to wait. Watching 320x200 flash videos will get old pretty soon when people start to ask for better quality over speed.

[tenbosch]

I would imagine that Vint is likely cringing the fact that this is being made into a news story. Just the fact that he had a comment on something so trivial as streaming or downloading is hardly newsworthy. To think that downloading is going to somehow be better then streaming is also ridiculous. As bandwidth speeds continue to get faster and faster, it makes the idea of streaming that much better. Why would anyone want to keep copies locally if they're made available instantly from any location. If I could fore go keeping a local copy of all my music, movies, pictures, or even a backup of my PC, I would do so in a heartbeat!!! I love the idea that someday I could be on a trip and have access to all my information no matter where I am.

[Rokridg]

While the "celestial jukebox" has many appealing attributes, bandwidth requirements are defined by usage patterns, which create the peak load and concurrent user demands that drive the need for more capacity. Downloadable media have many benefits in this environment: place- and time-shifting, higher quality viewing experience, subscription (e.g., to RSS-based podcasts)...and non-peak downloading to help mitigate network capacity requirements and associated costs. As with most other services and technologies, streaming and downloadable media will continue to exist concurrently, with each being further optimized with respect to content, functionality, pricing, etc.

[Manhattan2]

The future is energy, pollution, war, exploration, public safety. Not necassarily in that order. IT and the Internet will have its role in each of these but the future is bigger than applications, and social networks. We have been at this long enough to see many tech companies come and go. This list could shortly include Microsoft, Yahoo, Intel, and yes even Google & the resurgent Apple. What we face ahead is bigger than all these companies. Tech may help us improve efficiencies but apps, video games, and the latest OS are nothing compared to Energy, clean air, and defense. Mitch Govansky part of the Manhattan 2 Project.