First iPhone, now Droid. Who needs Windows?

If the iPhone didn't finish off Windows Mobile in the smartphone market, the Motorola Droid may.

Windows Mobile is losing the last vestiges of its mojo--if it really had any to begin with--as the Droid and other phones based on the Android 2.0 operating system push the buzz meter needle into the red zone. Many in the media--which can play a big role in steering users to one technology platform or another--sense that Windows Mobile has now been relegated resolutely to has-been status.

The Motorola Droid's high-resolution screen.

(Credit: Verizon)

Let's do a quick canvas of what some in the press are saying now that we're at the start of the Droid era. A post on SFGate.com (the Web site of the San Francisco Chronicle) is, like other commentary out there, clearly dismissive of Windows Mobile. "Curiously, Microsoft is nowhere to be seen in this battle royal," the author states, referring to the iPhone and Android.

And there's this more damning comment from a blog at SeattlePI.com. "Rarely mentioned, however, is another player in the mobile OS market--Microsoft. Why not? Because not many people in the smartphone world seem to really give a hoot about Windows Mobile anymore."

The litany of like articles is long. This post on PC World asks: "Has Microsoft Placed Its Last Mobile Bet?" The article cites research from Canalys showing Windows Mobile slipping from 13.9 percent of the worldwide smartphone market in 2002 to 9 percent in the second quarter of 2009.

The numbers are even less favorable in an accounting by ad service Admob, which compiles data on which operating systems are in use on mobile devices that access online ads. In August, according to AdMob, Windows Mobile had only a 4 percent share of the mobile OS market worldwide, down from 7 percent in February.

But getting back to my original premise of no mobile mojo for Windows. The fact is that consumers don't care about Windows on smartphones. In other words, while Windows seems to be a prerequisite for many consumers when buying a PC, it just doesn't come into play in a big way in a smartphone purchase.

This will have ramifications beyond Microsoft of course. Companies like Toshiba (and its attractive TG01 smartphone) will probably not be as successful on Windows Mobile as they would (will) be on Android 2.0. Or, at the very least, will not get the necessary buzz.

Then there's the Intel factor. Intel also wants to be a player, eventually, in the smartphone space. If it is indeed able to beat back Texas Instruments (whose chip is used in the Droid), Samsung (iPhone), Qualcomm (BlackBerry), and Marvell, it probably won't do it by sticking to the tried-and-true "WinTel" combination that's been so outrageously successful in the PC space.

And Intel is chasing a fast-moving target. TI, and all the other ARM-based chip suppliers cited above, are slated to bring out dual-core designs that can hit speeds as high as 2GHz (think next-generation tablets and media pads). In other words, they'll also be able claim the coveted speed mantle on phones, such as the Droid, where Windows Mobile is no where in sight.

So the Droid may not be the iPhone killer but rather the Windows Mobile slayer. Microsoft, of course, will always have the unassailable PC franchise. But, wait, isn't Android coming to Netbooks next year? Maybe the real battle royal for Microsoft is yet to come.

[Maclover1]

I fully agree. Microsoft should have come out with a Zune HD phone with a apps store. Instead they killed off all other zune models and gave the world Zune HD with NO apps, and updated Windows Mobile 6.5 with an App store????<br /><br />To top that off they dont advertise either.<br /><br />Microsoft needs to wake up!! They have all of these dis-jointed products, like Live Mesh, Live Sync and Sky Drive. I cant use my Live Mesh to Sync my files to Sky Drive??????????<br /><br />They need to consolidate like products, make them work in conjunction with the rest of their products and then advertise until the world knows about it.<br /><br />Both Google and Apple have an entire echo system that works together. If you go all the way with Google, you have mail, calendar, contacts, picassa, docs, sites, photo sharing, and now a Mobile OS that ties into all of that. Same for Apple with MobileMe. MobileMe hooks into OS X, iLife, and the iPhone.

[zhirow]

I agree with you, I'm a microsoft fan but there's no cohesion, I'm a huge fan of the Live services and it even started to look like they were going to rebrand with the Live label, there's Live Mail, Live services, Xbox Live, it's short, to the point and doesn't need explanation. I use Bing all the time, its great but they changed the name from Live search to Bing, I understand that was marketting but they could for instance call it Bing Live and keep the Live brand, it's kind of a waste for a really good brand name.<br /><br />As for Windows Mobile, they should get that team together with the Zune team, the mobile team can do implementation the Zune team can do design, I'd rather use the Zune interface verses Itunes anyday, its faster and not a resource hog. Itunes is ok for what it does, but given the choice I like Zunes interface even though I have an ipod. Live mesh is great when it works the way I want it too, sometimes it gets funky, Skydrive works good but most people dont know its there, poor marketting on MS part and the getting bored and deciding to discontinue services without actually push them is wearing. They'll have a service it'll work great, they won't push it, it'll acquire users anyway and they'll discontinue it... srsly? ***??<br /><br />I was looking at the ZuneHD but until they get app support I'll be stuck with the ipod, the touch is nice but I like tactile controls. <br /><br />One thing I'll say about Microsoft as of late, they're doing better advertising, I like their ads and they dont spend the whole time bashing Apple. Mac vs. PC ads are funny but not all that informative. Just so the Mac zombies know, I'm not bashing their precious OS or Apple, I'm just a fan of MS and before the first person says it, no I'm not buying a Mac thanxforurzealokiebai!

[sparrowhyperion]

I agree. I have a last gen Zune 120GB and I love it. It's able to hold my entire music library with space left over for a lot of videos. It has a much more heavy duty design. It's a bit large because it has an actual hard drive built in, but I prefer a device with some meat on it's bones. The thinner they are, the shoddier the construction. But I never would have even known about it had I not stumbled across it online on eBay when my old 8GB Sony Walkman media player died after only 3 months. Microsoft needs to advertise, and they also need to get their head out of their posterior orifice and take a good long look at the competition. Then they need to take a look at their products and make an HONEST assessment about where they stand and what they can do to improve. The days when they can arrogantly walk into the mine field knowing that their armor will keep them safe is over. They need to learn to avoid it altogether. And they need to lose the current OS on their Zune. It's dated and inefficient. The Zune HD was a bad idea from the word go. Trying to copy the iPod is just a waste of time. It's been ages since Redmond put out anything truly innovative (Including Windows 7). They need to come out with something which will totally blow the competition out of the water.

[ducttape36]

yeah, windows mobile just isnt for consumers. its not fun, its not exciting, its not innovative. its pure boring utility. a work horse. that being said, i do have a windows mobile phone, and its pretty handy having microsoft office on a phone. but its certianly not that fun. which is what consumers really want. <br /> <br />also, app stores are nice and all, but if they close off their phone like apple did, and only allow apps to be installed from their store, that would suck. id still liketo be able to search the web and find free .cabs to add at my own discretion.

[kojacked]

I agree with this thread. Microsoft let WinMo rot for too long. They had a chance to dominate the business market but forgot that business folks are people too and likewise want great usability and bling. A phone ins't a desktop computer. It's more personal than that. It has to hit that personal mark. I think Microsoft is finally getting that but it may be too late. <br /> <br />Like others have noted they have a lot of great services under the Live brand and good representations of them on their mobile platform. They also have the Zune HD interface and rich personalization. Then there's the XBox tie-in opportunity. The problem is that these are all just bits and peices that need to be better intergrated as a full "experience" on the phone. <br /> <br />As a hobbiest I'm happy to tweek my free WinMo phone (yes I'm cheap) to death to get the experience I want. Most are not willing nor capable of doing the same. (I wish the Linux guys would understand this) <br /> <br />Microsoft really owes HTC for keeping it alive with its modifications to the OS (Manilla/TF3D) but HTC needs to make money and if Android takes off I'm sure you'll see them shift to more Android phones and less WinMo. Even if Microsoft comes out with an amazing WinMo 7 OS in a year it may be too late. I suspect they'll practically have to give it away to handset makers and in addition cow-tow to carriers' demands for control. The latter will produce a basterdized phone (like what Verison has done with the Droid) that will diminish it's potential. <br /> <br />It's really too bad because Microsoft is just a year or two away from having a great phone OS. Unfortunatly the market has long left them in the dust. Kudos to Apple, Google, and Palm for lighting up this market and setting a new bar for what our phones can do for us.

[slickuser]

windoze fanboys and symantec need Windoze

[t8]

No need to give them advice, let them die. The world will be better off without them.

[markosph]

I agree...cohesion would be nice.<br /><br />I think Microsoft became complacent as they always have, there attitude was well we took out the competition now we don't have to work on it anymore. Examples IE taking out Netscape and Windows Mobile and Palm, they stopped trying to make it even better and let competition get past them. They used to think no one would mess around with us so we are good.... well guess what Apple messed with you and won, Mozilla and Google messed with you and won, cause you didn't think anyone would.<br /><br />I used Windows Mobile since the early CE days, I had a Compaq Aero and then moved onto multiple iPaq devices.... they were nice devices and I loved messing with them and installing things that changed the interface... the problem was lack of updates,mostly the vendors fault, Compaq did a good job giving updates... HP did not so I moved to a iPod touch (yes I used it as a PDA). The vendors for the most part did a poor job offering updates to the latest OS, I can understand Windows CE to Windows Mobile, but 5.0 to 6.0... I was forced to buy a new device, yes I know that is how business works and wants it, but its annoying... Apple has offered upgrades from 1.0 to 2.0 and up for its users...how nice is that.<br /><br />I agree with the person who said Microsoft should have taken the Zune interface and created a phone right away with it... I don't think Microsoft has forward thinkers...there is a great deal of people who comment on cnet articles that have a good idea of where to go... wasn't that a Microsoft slogan a while back...where do you want to go today?<br /><br />Apple succeeds cause they are unified, granted they have less hardware to deal with but they are still unified... google succeeds cause there offerings work with everything else they offer.<br /><br />I love Microsoft, and will continue to use Windows but I fear there time is numbered unless they can get a CEO that can think differently than Mr Ballmer does. Maybe get a DNA sample of Steve Jobs...I don't know.<br /><br />They have made some headway lately,but will it be enough for them to stay dominant and in the minds of computer users.<br />(my grammar sucks, but my spelling should be ok)

[solitare_pax]

Some companies do very well when they find their niche market.<br /><br />Why look at how well - oh wait...

[myles taylor]

@sparrowhyperion I know this is a little off topic but I couldn't let your "little meat on it's bones" comment go. The players with spinning harddrives are inevitably going to be the ones that last the least amount of time and will soon be completely phased out. It's like the difference between a car with wheels and a hovercar: the tires are eventually going to blow out....just like the harddrive. Now flash isn't infallible either, but putting a spinning HD in a mobile media player that people put in their pockets...well it was something that they had to do but that everyone is glad they won't have to do for much longer.

[ontarioboy]

I have to agree that Microsoft has largely dropped the ball on their mobile OS in the past: no manufacturer support, badly marketed, and just plain boring. <br /> <br />I have recently noticed that they have been stepping it up: they have demo teams in malls (in Washington State this weekend when I was visiting anyways) and have dedicated 'Windows Phone' reps visiting carrier stores up here in Canada as well. If they have something good cooking with WinMo 7, I think they can get back in the game pretty quick if they continue on with their marketing push.

[lazycat202]

WinMobile owns a small market and I don't think it's going to die. Just like Windows7, it saved Vista. There will be a new better version of WinMobile. <br />look at the software margin! There are hundreds of useful apps that Apple Store doesn't have. If Apple abandons its controlled habits on iPhone devices and its users, then WinMobile would die.

[Random_Walk]

I dunno...<br /><br />First off, Palm once commanded most of the mobile space (back when it was all PDAs). Now, they're struggling just to get noticed with their last-ditch effort at renewal - The Pre. <br /><br />Everyone keeps saying to wait for Windows Mobile 7, or for Pink. I think that by then, Microsoft won't have enough marketshare from which to stage a comeback, and they have a dual problem:<br /><br />- If WinMo7/Pink is just a new UI skin atop the old (or slightly revamped) OS, world+dog will pan it and WinMo will die.<br />- If WinMo7/Pink is radically new/exciting/fresh/whatever, odds are near-excellent that none of the WinMo apps out there now will work with it; meaning that they, like Palm, get to start from scratch, with relatively few-to-no apps. <br /><br />Three years ago, when the market was a relative unknown, no problem. Now? Problems. RIM, Apple, Palm, and Google are fast becoming powerful forces in a market that now has everyone's attention, and all of them are out working hard for their marketshares. <br /><br />This particular market is one that no longer tolerates 2nd-rate products... you either bring your 'A' game, or you get sent home to warehouses full of your unsold stock.

[Seaspray0]

As far as corporations are concerned, I'll say the same thing as when the iphone was released. A smart phone will not be addopted by corporate unless it will synchronize with corporate email. Take a look at the stats. Only when active synch was introduced in the ver 2.0 phones did you see any type of addoptions in the corporate environment.

[Random_Walk]

Agreed - but RIM got around the ActiveSync requirement years ago... :)

[kojacked]

"Agreed - but RIM got around the ActiveSync requirement years ago... :)" <br /> <br />Sure and put up a nice bar for consumer's to get synchronization. I'm sure every company loves buying yet another server just to support synchronization with their blackberries. You're always bashing Microsoft's solutions saying they're server heavy (i.e. SharePoint). How about here? Thought so... <br /> <br />And next on Fox News Shawn Hannity will be discussing Satan and his role in Microsoft. Joining him in this discussion will be renowned Microsoft hater Randow_Walk and his alter ego, Penguinisto...

[Maclover1]

I think a few years from now, iPhone and Android will be battling it out for #1 and Blackberry will be #3, and WinMo a distant #4.<br /><br />Blackberry has the best encryption and that is why the government uses it and probably will for a while.

[bananaphonerules]

"WinMobile owns a small market " <br /> <br />Not true. They own the business market. I don't see (m)any rugged Apple or Driod devices out there. <br /> <br />This may change but who is wanting to sell their internal LOB app on the Apple app store? <br />So agree if Apple releases control of the app store they may gain a share here. However it might turn into the mess of apps that WinMo has. <br /> <br />For example: we have around 200 staff, 50% with a Smart Phone. <br />However we've sold around 4000 rugged devices. All Windows Mobile.

[Random_Walk]

"I'm sure every company loves buying yet another server just to support synchronization with their blackberries. "<br /><br />You have to remember: When the Blackberries first came out (1999), ActiveSync didn't even exist in a form that could've done push email - Exchange support wasn't added until mid-2001, and non-WinCE device support wasn't added until at least 2002. So QED, at the time BES was actually necessary since there was nothing else out there at the time that could do the same job.<br /><br />(Note that the name "ActiveSync" applies to both the desktop sync software and the Exchange email/device sync service).<br /><br />Now what you were angling for is a slightly different aspect - SharePoint is a "free" but gimped CMS - it isn't fully useful until you've paid a huge chunk of bank for the licenses and servers to support it properly. With BES, you know up-front what the costs are going to be. Big diff there. ;)<br /><br />==<br /><br />"They own the business market."<br /><br />RIM actually owns the business market - ruggedized devices are IMHO a niche segment of that market.

[Seaspray0]

Yes, the blackberry enterprise server preceeded active synch. At one time, it was the ony way to synchronize enterprise email. Microsoft's active synch came later and it does it directly with the exchange server without need for an seperate server. These currently are the only two technologies in production that allow you to synchronize corporate email, and for that reason alone, Brooke Crothers, is why there still is a use for microsoft winmo devices. Even in the wake of new flashy consumer phones, corporations do account for a fair percentage of the mobile market.

[kojacked]

"You have to remember: When the Blackberries first came out (1999), ActiveSync didn't even exist in a form that could've done push email - Exchange support wasn't added until mid-2001, and non-WinCE device support wasn't added until at least 2002. So QED, at the time BES was actually necessary since there was nothing else out there at the time that could do the same job." <br /> <br />But ActiveSync is out there now and others are offering it on their devices for free. BES is now an impediment not an advantage. Besides how did RIM get "around" the activesync requirement since it didn't exist before BES? ;) <br /> <br />" SharePoint is a "free" but gimped CMS - it isn't fully useful until you've paid a huge chunk of bank for the licenses and servers to support it properly. With BES, you know up-front what the costs are going to be. Big diff there. ;)" <br /> <br />Hmmm... I don't recall any subversion in Microsoft's various guides and manuals on setting up SharePoint. It's pretty clear what you need. In most cases people implement SharePoint successfully with far less than what you state is required (you imply the worst case implementation is needed, of course). I guess people like gimped CMSs because SharePoint is all over the place. Maybe SharePoint isn't the gimp here. ;)

[Jeremy Chappell]

What are you even talking about? Windows Mobile is dead, utterly and completely dead. Consumers have no appetite for smartphones based on that platform. The "hot phones" are iPhone 3GS, Android phones, and Palm Pre (in that order). Given that Apple won't ever make a Windows Phone (why would they?), Palm are betting the farm on webOS (which seems like a nice OS - perhaps they need nicer hardware) and the rest of the industry are able to create compelling offerings with "pure" Android or their own custom Android phones - why do they need Microsoft?<br /><br />It seems for the moment Apple have this market under control (mostly down to momentum and the app store), Palm have an exciting offering - but they need to execute better. The rest of the industry have some cracking new offerings - HTC's Hero, Motorola's Droid and even Sony have the X10 coming (and that looks like one nice handset).

[seven7dust]

I've said this before and I'll say it again<br />Android isn't a iPhone killer but a windows mobile killer.

[Super2online]

I think you might reconsider that stance once Sony Xperia X10 releases in early 2010. If ever I have seen an iPhone killer this is it. Sorry Droid, you just don't have what the overall crowd wants, sex appeal! The X10 has it in spades and is in it's final stage of development With the comments I'm seeing from hundreds of people on the promo video ditching their iPhone for the X10, my guess is the iPhone will have finally met it's match. <br /> <br />As for WinMo dying out, don't believe it. WinMo 6.5 will allow them to hang on (barely) until WinMo 7 releases. Microsoft has already said the Zune interface will be integrated. By then, their app store will also be much more mature and kinks worked out. At that point the popularity of it's user experience will allow them to claw their way back. <br /> <br />Dont' believe it? All you have to do is look at Android, 10,000 apps in 1 year and now that there are some decent phones releasing, the pace of app creation will accellerate rapidly. And this is all at the height of the current iPhone popularity craze. People are always looking for the "next big thing" plus cell phones make a personal statement about you, if you're not keeping up, you're falling behind. The best interface, phone design with large app store will always win, no matter how popular the incumbent is.

[jezzali]

@ Super2online,<br /><br />The Xperia X10 is an Android smartphone which looks nice but will be running Android Donut (version 1.6) and not Éclair (version 2.0) which could hobble it if Android Market quickly becomes dominated by 2.0 dependent apps.<br /><br />On Microsoft: It is a practiced predatory monopolist, it is not a savvy competitor in markets that it doesn't already dominate. Microsoft knows how to monopolize, it does not know how to truly compete effectively and profitably. In these competitive markets, Microsoft's history is rather dismal. Nokia has a better chance at competing successfully against iPhone and the tide of Android phones than Microsoft. And if all else fails, Nokia too can still switch to Android. If Microsoft were smart they would abandon WinMo and start making apps for iPhone, Android, and Maemo that tie in nicely with Windows.<br /><br />As a corporation they should be offering value to their shareholders and making profit rather than pretending they can rule the world in markets where the support that gave them their PC monopoly in the 80's and 90's simply does not exist. The major mobile players do not welcome Microsoft; The Open Handset Alliance does not exist for no strategic reason. For a software corporation, viewing Android and iPhone as threats and competitors against the pathetically ailing WinMo is completely wrong headed and futile. It makes much more sense to see these platforms as the enormous opportunity they are rather than a threat. Apple's App Store and Android Market are sitting there like virgin land, a huge opportunity to create a compelling app solution that gives nice integration with Windows on these platforms. If you make something good for a small fee, Windows users will buy it and you can potentially build a huge and profitable business integrating these platforms with Windows and more.<br /><br />The Microsoft of 1989 would have seen the opportunities. The Microsoft of 2009 simply doesn't see it. At least, they wont until it is way too late and Windows itself has become a lame duck in a mobile world.

[Random_Walk]

"Microsoft has already said the Zune interface will be integrated. By then, their app store will also be much more mature and kinks worked out."<br /><br />Assuming WinMo 7 is compatible with them... and if they are, this means the same underlying APIs, and probably the same panning by the reviewers. Even Gartner is wavering in their devotion to Windows Mobile. <br /><br />Methinks it'll take something just shy of a miracle for Microsoft to get back in the game - by next year (assuming no deadline slippage), Windows Mobile will be lucky to have 5% of the market by generous stats, or less than 1% by AdMob's methods. This is bad news, because as jezzali put it:<br /><br />"Microsoft knows how to monopolize, it does not know how to truly compete effectively and profitably."<br /><br />...and he/she is right. Even the Xbox, which finally managed to eke out a tiny profit? That took nearly a decade to manage, and is still in the hole when it comes to overall ROI... by (prolly literally) billions of dollars.

[Rolker]

I think that claiming that WinMo will disappear from the market any time soon is an exaggeration. There is a hype around Android and WebOS, but WinMO isn't a bad OS. Just take a look at HTC touch HD2, which looks very promising. <br />One of the advantages WinMO (and Andoid) has is that it is supported by several manufacturers, in contrast to WebOS and iPhone's OS. <br />But don't forget that the biggest player out there is Nokia, even in the smart phone market.

[Super2online]

@ jezzali - You have some good points. However, while the current OS demo is 1.6, two new UI's called Timescape and Mediascape radically improve upon what Google offers in version 2.0 for some of the most popular smart phone features- music, photos, video and social media. Don't underestimate how powerful these improvements to the OS could be. Also, release is scheduled for late Q1 of 2010, giving them plenty of time to release with the latest version of Android. <br /> <br />I won't debate you on WinMo except to say this. Microsoft has a long history of creating great products on the 3rd and 4th tries. We shall see what develops and how well it does.

[Super2online]

@ Random_Walk - While there are a few markets that one can state Microsoft has not competed in very well, there are plenty of others that they have done exceptionally well. Windows (desktop and server versions) even with the problems Vista initially had, Office (including Mac versions) and Exhange, Xbox 360, and SharePoint. Competition in all of these markets has always been well organized and fierce and they have done very well. <br /> <br />There are others that Microsoft continues to make gains in- Bing, Silverlight, Expression Suite, Microsoft Automotive, Maps and Worldwide Telescope. Azure is right around the corner and I have not doubt they they will compete very well in this burdgening opportunity. <br /> <br />Microsoft has already been a leader in the mobile marketplace in the early years when the Pocket PC platform almost completely knocked Palm out of existence. There biggest mistake they made at that point was not continuing to innovate on their full screen interface and UI like Apple ultimately brought to the table. You're not going to get every decision right. <br /> <br />As I said before, there is no such thing as being "too late" with innovation. If they can execute with an innovative UI like they have with Zune, they have just as much chance at being successful as anyone else has.

[markosph]

seven7dust... being that Android is more open (at least for now) it could eventually pass the iPhone. For me, as a iPod owner, the app store is what makes that device so nice, then its super easy to use.<br /><br /> I don't own a iPhone so I can't comment on At&#38;t and their service, but I think it might make more sense for Apple to be on multiple carriers.

[Random_Walk]

"I think that claiming that WinMo will disappear from the market any time soon is an exaggeration."<br /><br />I don't think anyone is saying they'll disappear entirely... just that their share will become statistically insignificant unless they can pull off a miracle, and stop doing what they've always done WRT WinMo.<br /><br />==<br /><br />"While there are a few markets that one can state Microsoft has not competed in very well, there are plenty of others that they have done exceptionally well. Windows (desktop and server versions) even with the problems Vista initially had, Office (including Mac versions) and Exhange, Xbox 360, and SharePoint. Competition in all of these markets has always been well organized and fierce and they have done very well. "<br /><br />I agree, but not fully - they spent a lot of dough in the games market, and their victory is a Pyrrhic one at best... you don't sink billions of dollars into something and not realize your full investment, then consider that to be a victory.<br /><br />Exchange, sure - for the roles it was built for (business groupware), it does very well, though it has had little competition. Same with the others you've listed (though I'm not sure how much longer SharePoint will remain in that list, for various reasons that --to their credit-- are beyond Microsoft's control).<br /><br />"Microsoft has already been a leader in the mobile marketplace in the early years when the Pocket PC platform almost completely knocked Palm out of existence."<br /><br />I agree - but they have squandered that lead, and it is about to kill them in the mobile realm unless something drastic happens.<br /><br />"As I said before, there is no such thing as being "too late" with innovation."<br /><br />In most other markets, this would make sense... but in the mobile market, what feature could they possibly add that would justify the licensing costs? Android is free. Apple has no use for WinMo in any format. Symbian (the market leader still) is open source. Palm abandoned WinMo for WebOS. <br /><br />...where does Microsoft fit into that?

[Super2online]

I don't know if you followed this years SharePoint 2009 conference but SharePoint 2010 is about to become Microsofts finest hour. The improvements are too numerous to list but my gut feelings tell me that SharePoints one billion dollar industry will easily hit three to five billion before the next version releases afterwards. <br /> <br />I also think you are grossly under estimating the Xbox 360 considering that Project Natal's release is right around the corner. This one single software and hardware upgrade will cause a revolution in how entertainment enthusiasts will interact with their console. Here are Steven Speilbergs comments after using the system: "This is a pivotal moment that will carry with it a wave of change, the ripples of which will reach far beyond video games" <br /> <br />If you have forgotten what this magnificent upgrade offers, I invite you to watch the videos located here: <br /> <br />http://www.xbox.com/en-US/live/projectnatal/ <br /> <br />While Android is free, and that is a significant huddle to overcome, Microsoft is currently demonstrating with Office that "free" is not the only viable business model that can work successfully. Free can provide access and useful functionality the the public, a reasonable charge can apply to improved features and functionality, and a premium feature set can be had for large businesses and enterprises. All of this availalbe with Office and SharePoint 2010. <br /> <br />There is no direct correlation with free online office apps and WinMo 7, but my guess is that they have a lot of very smart people working diligently to overcome those advantages. As I said before though, time will tell. <br /> <br />Microsoft also knows how to do "free". They have been one of the largest vendors of free software giveaways for decades, and I have taken advantage of that to great benefit both in my personal and professional life. They also provide access to beta applications and OS's for months before applications are released and even then allow you to continue using them for a few months afterwards. This can be quite adventagious if you know how to get the biggest bang for your buck with it. They have also taken out a lot of "issue" apps from Windows 7 and then improved and provided them in Windows Live and are integrating them with some very nice online live social networking features of which we should see wave 4 releasing soon.

[Random_Walk]

Nice sales pitch! :)<br /><br />"I also think you are grossly under estimating the Xbox 360 considering that Project Natal's release is right around the corner."<br /><br />It's vaporware until it shows up... and unless it arrives free with every new xbox (and doesn't end up being a peripheral that costs $$$, like most other Xbox addons), I doubt it would help even if it was for sale - then or now.<br /><br />"I don't know if you followed this years SharePoint 2009 conference..."<br /><br />You'd find it easier to remain sane if you didn't use an evangelical conference as a point of market prediction (let alone as any form of cite). <br /><br />Example: I went to VMWorld 2009, but I certainly wouldn't predict how VMWare will actually fare in the market based on what was said there. (now technical info and a chance to speak w/ the developers, okay - same with the chance to share experiences and stories with peers. But sales/growth forecasts? Puh-leeze.)<br /><br />I mean, according to every BrainShare conference that ever was, each "next year" was going to be Novell's finest hour. Seen any new Netware installs lately? ;)<br /><br />"Microsoft is currently demonstrating with Office that "free" is not the only viable business model that can work successfully."<br /><br />You do realize that the only reason for MS Office's continued existence has more to do with inertia than innovation, yes?

[seven7dust]

I've said this before and I'll say it again<br />Android isn't a iPhone killer but a windows mobile killer.

[srminton]

You're starting to get repetitive

[seven7dust]

wise words can never be repetitive I'll give android about a year<br />to pass windows mobile marketshare

[Super2online]

By the time your year is up, WinMo 7 will be out!

[Random_Walk]

"By the time your year is up, WinMo 7 will be out!"<br /><br />...and WinMo7 will have to manage to do the following just to catch up:<br /><br />1) have hardware that actually holds up<br />2) be stable enough to actually run for more than a few hours of use before requiring a reboot<br />3) not look like crap<br />4) run smoothly with a unified UI (not just some touch here, some stylus there...)<br /><br />...and most importantly, WinMo 7 will also have to provide more compelling features and power than anything RIM, Apple, Nokia, Google and Palm can come up with. Oh, and be available at a better price (to manufacturer, carrier, and public), just like its competition will be doing.<br /><br />Otherwise, it'll end up being tagged as "Zune the Third", and promptly die of strangulation.

[stale_pancake]

People buy Windows Mobile likely for different reasons. Same with the Blackberry. Android shows a enormous promise. Consumers will appreciate it the most for now. The business market is also important and it needs Android's support. <br /><br />I continue to stick with the Blackberry because so far it's still the best business class smart phone money can buy. <br /><br />Pancake

[cjbertelli]

I have used Blackberries almost exclusively since they arrived on the market because of their reliable business performance. I'm giving the Droid a try because RIM has fallen behind in what a mobile business person needs on a day-to-day basis and the Droid's Exchange syncing with a robust app store looks like a great leap forward from anything RIM has on the market.

[jezzali]

The future is mobile, and in the growing and changing mobile market Microsoft is unwanted and irrelevant. And good riddance I say.

[Super2online]

Unwanted by one man, is very much wanted by another.

[Seaspray0]

Corporate email. As long as windows mobile provides that, it will have a place. It's a matter of personal preference. You'd rather have the phone that generates the most buzz. I need one that does corporate email and corporate applications. Buzz won't do it for me.

[billium2]

I agree good riddance WinBlows mobile!

[Riff_Rafter]

I've used Windows mobile on a number of phones from the HTC touch "brick", to the Moto Q to the Samsung ACE. I thought it was OK until I got the Palm Pre....unbelievable how much better Palm's WebOS is than Windows Mobile for EVERYTHING. I like Windows on my desktops and laptops and I love my Zune (a lot better than my old iPod), but MS has a ways to go to compete with the Pre, Droid or iPhone in the Smartphone space <br /><br />I also agree with zhirow regarding using the Zune team to help develop the interface for a future MS smartphone. They "get it" when it comes to smaller devices much more than the computer-centric crowd at MS.<br /><br />Just my $0.02....<br /><br />- Riff

[CorbyInTampa]

Well I am a computer programmer, and all these little gadgets are a neat fad, but I have based my career on Microsoft, and they are still around. I have known Borland, and Powerbuilder and Java programmers making Grande Frappaccinos now because they straid from the Microsoft.

[iBuzz]

Hahaha... Back in the day of minis and mainframes, people considered the PC a fad and a toy too. Where are all those COBOL programmers now? Wisdom was that it was always safe to stay with IBM and COBOL. Just like relying on COBOL kept you out of the PC market, relying on Microsoft tools is keeping you out of the mobile market.

[there can be only one]

It's 'strayed' not 'straid', you boob

[Random_Walk]

"...but I have based my career on Microsoft, and they are still around."<br /><br />In the markets where they have a monopoly, sure. But this isn't the desktop realm. ;)<br /><br />Me, I prefer to learn as many platforms as I can, which keeps me flexible. Good programming principles do not vary too much between languages - and only a hack would rely on one platform or product for their livelihood.<br /><br />PS: I don't believe a word you say concerning Java development, since it still outnumbers .NET development positions by a very sizable percentage.

[ckh1272]

@CorbyInTampa---Whatever you dude. That's I have seen plenty of MCSE certified and C+ saying that other platforms are dead while serve your fries. Sounds silly don't it? That is pretty much how your statement sounds because you STRAYED from reality.

[cbscowards]

Even in this crappy economy I get at least 1-2 unsolicited emails a month asking me if I am interested in a Java position. Straying from MS 10 years ago was the best career move I ever made. The most important thing in a career is to keep learning new technology. Buryng your head in MS is a great way to end up greeting at Walmart.

[renGek]

There are still tons of cobol programmers out there. Mainframes are far less relevant than they were in the 80s and 90s but client server and web development really didn't pry their core businesses away. Look at the airline industry and public utilities sector. Those are hard core mainframers for years to come.<br /><br />I think its silly to discount .net development jobs. 4 years ago that job sector really took off. Before my certification in .net there was no interest in my resume. Immediately, after I was certified and started on a project at work with .net the phone calls came pouring in. It felt like the .com days. I don't care which company I do my rah rah rah for. I care only about being marketable and in an area where the pool of work is plentiful. At this moment in time, .net is the winner for me. When times change, I'll figure out a way of changing with the time. always have and always will. Thats what makes IT professionals valuable, we can change with technology.

[shycelticwitch]

Give him a break people... look where he's from. I happen to live "next door" to Tampa, and I can tell you for a fact that the entire county is stuck in the 80s... both socially and technologically.

[turtleandfrog]

We shall see if these assertions come to be. I doubt Microsoft will not take action if they are not already doing so. With the resources at their disposal and their dynamic abilities I expect Microsoft will do much better than you propose. <br /> <br />Just saying!

[Random_Walk]

It's possible, but I wouldn't wager too much on them. They're good at marketing in realms where they built their house - desktops, servers, office apps... but not so good everywhere else. <br /><br />Also, relying on mature markets that are decreasing in per-unit revenue isn't going to help them long-term...

[Super2online]

I would say Windows, Xbox, and SharePoint are increasing not decreasing.

[Random_Walk]

I'm talking about revenue, not units ;)

[incendy]

It is behind for sure, but we will have to see what Windows Mobile 7 does. They are taking their time with it but if ZuneHD's interface is any indication of what it will be I think they are right back in the game.

[Super2online]

Microsoft has already announced that that the Zune HD interface will be included in Windows 7

[Naveed Hingora]

A thought provoking article. Indeed, nobody would see this coming, Android could well be killing Windows Mobile than the iPhone mania.

[sensi2]

I do wonder why every so-called journalist seems forced to do free advertisement for minority players Apple, Google or Microsoft while they conscientiously ignore Symbian and its Symbian OS (which has around 50% of the smartphone market...). I can only guess that Symbian doesn't have as many people on its PR payroll.

[Random_Walk]

Symbian used to have 80% of the market. Nokia open-sourced it in a desperate move to stop the bleeding... and they're not going to make much revenue off of Symbian licensing anymore.

[frozenjello]

While Symbian is huge outside of America, this is an American web site, and Symbian has no significant presence in America.

[DudeDarth]

Windows Mobile still wins..ofcourse all credit goes to HTC..hasn't anyone here heard of the HTC HD2?..beats everything out there currently

[iBuzz]

I have an HTC and the thing is a pile of hurt. The audio/music quality is absolutely horrible, the home screen weather app doesn't offer weather for my zip code (closest is over 60 miles away), the stock app has display bugs and constantly requires me to manually update to see the latest numbers, the SMS app frequently covers the text input area with its own "word suggestion" bar that sometimes makes it impossible to reply to text messages, the GPS is laggy (forget about using it for turn-by-turn directions), it is impossible to try to use the email inbox list while other messages are coming in (since it automatically scrolls away from what you were reading), and the pocket Word and Excel apps are toys that look like Office 98. The whole thing is a disaster and has been the worst mobile purchase I ever made (and I have owned many mobile phones over the years).<br /><br />Anyone who still uses Windows Mobile and thinks that it is good can't possibly have used another smartphone in the past 2-3 years.

[lazycat202]

GPS is lagging? i dun know. But my iGuidance, TomTom, and iGo are working perfectly. Home Screen with weather data displays nicely. I played with my sister's iphone. It looks nice, faster. But it still doesn't work out for me :P

[Super2online]

@iBuzz - You must not put much thought into you're purchase if it puts so much "hurt" in your life!

[there can be only one]

Are you a publicist for Sony? Cuz, that's the only way your comments make any sense. "Hundreds of people ditching their iphone for the Xperia"? That's the oldest advertising shill in the book. As for the Android app store accelerating to 10,000 is silly when compared to the 100,000 for the iphone.

[Super2online]

It's Sony/Ericcson, not Sony. I'm not sure if you woke up in the world yesterday, but Apple didn't start with 100,000 apps. It started with a handful, the same way WinMo and Google got started. Give it a little time and you will see 100,000 apps in both camps.

[renGek]

Android is open source. Their followers are seasoned programmers. It won't take but a few years for that platform to surpass iphone in terms of app count. More importantly, I think you will find android will have better apps. Google has developed a lot of good software over the years. Software is their specialty, much more so than apple who is traditionally a hardware company. And from my developer friends they all feel android is easier to develop on than iphone (mainly probably because apple's dev tool is too new and unfamiliar). So I wouldn't count on apple winning the war in terms of software.

[sensi2]

To complement my previous comment, global smartphone market by OS (Q2 2009, source Canalys) :<br /><br />Symbian : 50.3%<br />RIM Blackberry : 20.9%<br />Apple iPhone : 13.7%<br />Microsoft Windows Mobile : 9.0%<br />Google Android : 2.8%<br />Other (Palm, Linux) : 3.3%

[ywkhgqo]

i'm impressed google has gotten that much already

[Seaspray0]

sensi. any stats on the non-smart phone market? It would be interesting to know it that reinforces the symbian majority.

[sensi2]

@ Seaspray0<br /><br />Nope sorry, btw the stats above were found over wikipedia.

[renGek]

Its good to put it all into perspective. I think many iphone users think apple has dominated the cellphone market especially those who never leaves the usa. They'll discover outside of the us, there isn't as much interest in iphones (i.e. selling only 5000 iphones in its debut in china). Will be interesting to see if android will have the same problem.<br /><br />It will be interesting to see how these stats change in the next 3-5 years. I'm betting android will increase to double digits and it will be interesting to see at who's expense.

[shycelticwitch]

@ Seaspray... how about finding some PROVEN statistics? Wikipedia... are you kidding me???

[mmagliaro]

When I bought my Blackberry in a Verizon store over a year ago, the sales people there were already steering customers away from any of the WIndows Mobile-based phones.<br />Were they "supposed" to be doing that? No. But they were honest. They said too many of them<br />were constantly coming back screwed up, locked up, needing to be reset, have their files rescued, etc.<br />They strongly suggested I stay away from any of the phones with Windows on them.<br /><br />I'm telling you all this to add a ray of perspective. Windows Mobile isn't slipping away "now".<br />It's been getting a bad rep for more than a year.

[bonesbautista]

Ditto on the switch with VZW. Tiring of my old VZW Palm freezing up (not much love between VZW and Palm/Access), I was looking at a WinMo PDA but got steered to a Storm (I wanted a Curve but they were out of stock). About the issues with VZW WinMo phones, I'll agree with the PDAs stinking, but VZW has got to take part of the blame here - cutting down on the available ROM size, loading up the PDAs with crap apps and custom locked ROMs (just like the Palms). If VZW hadn't "de-nutted" their WinMo PDAs so much (until recently) I'd likely be using one now.<br /><br />I'm tiring now of RIM/VZW - in the past 3-5 weeks, both have pushed 6 apps to the Storm's Home Screen (Bing, Slacker, VZ Tones, VCast Video....). I'm actually going to take another look at WinMo (even as a Mac user) and using SBP Mobile Shell - the RIM OS update is only eye candy, and Android 2 is too new for me to trust yet in my small business.

[Nick3159]

This is an interesting article but it only reports on the (lack of) buzz of Win Mobile. It would be interesting to hear some explanation of WHY there is no interest in it. Is Windows Mobile really inferior to the iPhone, WebOS, or Android? Or is it just fascination with the new?

[Spanwite]

Microsoft stops with development as soon they passes the Competition in Market share, Netscape/Explorer 6. Now Win Mobile, there was not much else out there, and the "Princess" did fall asleep. I did read many comments, not many are negative toward Droid.<br />Now let's remember how long Win Mobile is around, compare to Droid and iPhone. Then let's look to Windows main Business Desktop, how many years around? Soon coming &gt;Chrome OS&lt; and Droid vs. Windows and WinMo.<br />And Chrome OS will left behind (does not have) to be compatible to all Hardware/Software back 15Years.<br />Windows will face some Competitor in every corner they didn't have when everyone just didn't know it better, or could not "play" with other Software/Hardware.<br /><br />Windows the best User experience! Haha might not more be true for everyone isn't it? <br /><br />It might be also a good thing, so if Microsoft pushes the top secret Button and all Microsoft Products stops working ;-)) Not for everyone a Problem anymore. Hip Hip hurry.

[renGek]

I don't think microsoft has really pushed into the cellphone market the way they do in OS, video games, web etc.<br />Compare to those areas of business, how many cellphone related ads do you see from MS? Not a whole lot. So it doesn't see to be a priority to them which is odd. Seems like something they would want to dominate as well.

[jakeZ2]

Already forecasting the demise of Windows mobile when apple barely has a leading marketshare? Funny how every article I read about the new Android device treats apple as though it is untouchable. Are these writers living in reality. Sorry, but the new android phone smokes the iphone. The N900 will be even better, but I fear the consumer audience will not be able exploit all of its features.

[profr]

It's all about the apps (for the foreseeable future). WinMo's UI, closed model of development, and thin app store just won't be able to catch up to Android and IPhone for at least a year or two. By then, who knows where Android and iPhone will be in terms of functionality. It's going to be a steep hill for Microsoft.

[Seaspray0]

You are so wrong. The winmo API's are available for all developers to use, and microsoft does not restrict developers in any way, shape, or form as to what app they can write. Microsoft provides some of the best developer support in the business. There is no "submit your app for approval" in a windows mobile environment and you are not restricted to having your apps distributed through a single source. As for apps, they have been available for years.. some of which still have not been ported to other mobile phone platforms.

[profr]

Seaspray, and you are about 1/2 right :) You make a good point about MS not restricting developers into what they can write, but the WinMo developer environment is pretty dated. Both WinMo and iPhoneOS are closed whether you think so or not. Having Apple handle the testing, distribution and providing a support streamlined the process compared to the WinMo experience. Stop buying the FUD, it's apparent you are not a developer.

[bananaphonerules]

@Profr <br />Wow. You are thinking small time. <br /> <br />Running a business I don't want Apple in charge of my QA. <br />Also what business deployment systems are out there for iPhone? <br />Its there anything that compares to SOTI for example? <br /> <br />I agree the WinMo user experience is old. But the developer and management tools are excellent. <br />They are getting better. If only the phone provders didn't sell it with cheaper / crap hardware.